The Official Obama 2.0 Approval Ratings Thread

[pbrower2a]

St. Leo University, Florida:

approve 44%, disapprove 53%


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[henster]

Looks like he's finally recovering lets see if this holds for a while and 2014 might not be so bad. I definitely think Obama is gonna have to change things up next year and have things go really well for him to end up in positive territory again the best we can hope for is slightly negative or neutral approval rating atm.

[pbrower2a]

This montage

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could hurt the approval ratings of President Obama while doing nothing to any Democrat. We all understand the dynamic.

[pbrower2a]

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/pdf/2013/PPP_Release_KY_1217.pdf

The latter will be far more important in November.





60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[The Vorlon]

Another interesting little tidbit: Respondents in the Illinois poll said they voted for Obama by 9. Actually he won the state by 17. So they greatly oversampled Republicans.

The "who did you vote for in the last election" question absolutely sucks in a poll.

According to all polling done in the later part of 1974, for example, McGovern actually "won" in 1972 if you asked folks who they voted for...

[Franzl]

Another interesting little tidbit: Respondents in the Illinois poll said they voted for Obama by 9. Actually he won the state by 17. So they greatly oversampled Republicans.

The "who did you vote for in the last election" question absolutely sucks in a poll.

According to all polling done in the later part of 1974, for example, McGovern actually "won" in 1972 if you asked folks who they voted for...

Bandit likely thinks he did.

[The Vorlon]

ABC says 43/55
NBC/WSJ says 43/54

In the whole mix of polls these are the two I trust the most, and they happen to agree with each other.

Of the 12 polls in todays RCP average 9 have Obama in the 41 to 43 range, with two above and one below.

Pretty hard to argue that his approval rating is not in the 42 (ish) range....

[Tender Branson]

PPP national:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/obama-approval-at-record-low-but-dems-lead-generic-house-ballot.html

[Bandit3 the Worker]

PPP national:

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http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2013/12/obama-approval-at-record-low-but-dems-lead-generic-house-ballot.html

This comes with the usual PPP caveat of overpolling Romney supporters.

[muon2]

I got a call last night from the automated Rasmussen tracking poll. I'll be curious to see the numbers when they release the results. Besides the usual approval questions, there were a number of questions on gun control and Michelle Obama.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

I got a call last night from the automated Rasmussen tracking poll. I'll be curious to see the numbers when they release the results. Besides the usual approval questions, there were a number of questions on gun control and Michelle Obama.

For what it's worth, he's back up to 48/50 on the latest Rasmussen. Which means he might actually be above water on some recent days.

[Tender Branson]

I got a call last night from the automated Rasmussen tracking poll. I'll be curious to see the numbers when they release the results. Besides the usual approval questions, there were a number of questions on gun control and Michelle Obama.

For what it's worth, he's back up to 48/50 on the latest Rasmussen. Which means he might actually be above water on some recent days.

That's because the American public doesn't hear anything about or from him at the moment.

He's on vacation in Hawaii ...

[pbrower2a]

We probably won' t see any effects of the change in approval ratings upon statewide polls for at least a week.

For now, call this my last guess of 2013 with President Obama at his worst, possibly ever --


60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)

[muon2]

I got a call last night from the automated Rasmussen tracking poll. I'll be curious to see the numbers when they release the results. Besides the usual approval questions, there were a number of questions on gun control and Michelle Obama.

Today's release certainly marches part of the questions in the poll.

[J. J.]

Obama's national numbers on both Gallup and Rasmussen have rebounded, even looking at the weekly Gallup numbers.

[pbrower2a]

Obama's national numbers on both Gallup and Rasmussen have rebounded, even looking at the weekly Gallup numbers.

The map should redden significantly in January.

[Bandit3 the Worker]

He's 49-49 on Rasmussen now. This is the first time he hasn't been underwater on Rasmussen since God knows when.

[pbrower2a]

PPP resumes polling this weekend. States for polling may include Florida, New Hampshire, New Mexico, Oregon, Rhode Island, Utah and Virginia. - See more at: http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/exciting-changes-for-2014.html#sthash.5edpdtuP.dpuf

At this moment Oregon leads.

No idea on Quinnipiac -- just expect its usual states getting polled. 

Presidential approval seems to have gone nearly even in some nationwide polls, and much of the map is consistent with the President having approval ratings near 40%. California even? That could persist because California rarely gets polled.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I shame they're cutting back to one public poll a week.  Hopefully we'll get better polls, and until it gets closer to the elections we don't really need a lot of polls.  Still, gotta wonder why Oregon is getting all that poll love.

[Tender Branson]

I shame they're cutting back to one public poll a week.  Hopefully we'll get better polls, and until it gets closer to the elections we don't really need a lot of polls.  Still, gotta wonder why Oregon is getting all that poll love.

PPP's polls often get manipulated. And they are in fact easy to manipulate ...

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I shame they're cutting back to one public poll a week.  Hopefully we'll get better polls, and until it gets closer to the elections we don't really need a lot of polls.  Still, gotta wonder why Oregon is getting all that poll love.

PPP's polls often get manipulated. And they are in fact easy to manipulate ...

That only speaks to how, not why.

[IceSpear]

I shame they're cutting back to one public poll a week.  Hopefully we'll get better polls, and until it gets closer to the elections we don't really need a lot of polls.  Still, gotta wonder why Oregon is getting all that poll love.

PPP's polls often get manipulated. And they are in fact easy to manipulate ...

That only speaks to how, not why.

Probably some niche Oregon politics site encouraging their members to spam the poll.

Seriously, who gives a crap about Oregon. Merkley is safe, Kitzhaber is safe, there is no competitive House race.

[pbrower2a]

Know beforehand:

GOP pollsters Tony Fabrizio and David Lee rolled out a new firm — Fabrizio, Lee & Associates — that they describe as a “successor” to Fabrizio’s former company, Fabrizio McLaughlin & Associates.

“[Lee] is certainly at the top of the next generation of GOP pollsters and I am proud to have him as my partner,” Fabrizio said in a Tuesday news release.

The name change represents somewhat of a clarification for the firm. In the 1990s, Fabrizio worked with John McLaughlin, but the partnership disbanded amicably over the 1996 presidential campaign, Lee said in an interview with CQ Roll Call. Fabrizio worked for Republican candidate Bob Dole, while McLaughlin polled for Republican rival Steve Forbes.

McLaughlin’s brother, Jim, continued to work with Fabrizio into the next decade. He left in the early 2000s, but Fabrizio continued to use the McLaughlin name out of convenience, Lee said.

“This is the next step in our relationship,” Lee added.

The McLaughlin brothers have their own polling firm, McLaughlin & Associates.

http://atr.rollcall.com/republicans-form-new-polling-firm/

[Bandit3 the Worker]

Well, peeps, it's finally happened. Obama has positive approval numbers on Rasmussen now - even hitting the magic 50%. He's at 50/49.

[pbrower2a]

PPP, New Hampshire

Only 41% of voters approve of the job he's (President Obama) doing to 53% who disapprove

http://www.publicpolicypolling.com/main/2014/01/shaheen-hassan-lead-opponents.html#more

60% or higher maroon (70% saturation)
55-59% medium red (50% saturation)
50-54% pink (30% saturation)
45-49% orange -- Obama ahead (30% saturation)
45-49% yellow -- exact tie (40% saturation)
45-49% aqua -- Obama behind (20% saturation)
44% blue (20% saturation)
40-43% blue (50% saturation)
30-40% deep blue (70% saturation)
under 30%(90% saturation)