Which Atlas members, deserve the biggest "I told you so!"

[Comrade Funk]

Dirks and cliffy will never return because they were temporary hacks.

J.J, Politico, and Winfield are the top three in that order.

[LastVoter]

Some might include me in that category for my gloom and doom sky is falling warnings about the white vote, though I came round to accepting that Obama would win in the last couple of weeks.

That said, I think when the final figures are in, we'll see I wasn't really wrong about whites, just that the racist voting pattern is in fact quite conveniently located on the the electoral map, thank goodness.

I think the swing map is quite telling, Southern racism was exported to Midwest in the past decade, so we ended up with Virginia having a better margin than Ohio. Also many very safe Democratic states like WI, MI and MN swung quite heavily to the racist party. Georgia and/or Arizona might prove be do or die states for democrats in 2016 if they want to win.

[Grumpier Than Uncle Joe]

Some might include me in that category for my gloom and doom sky is falling warnings about the white vote, though I came round to accepting that Obama would win in the last couple of weeks.

That said, I think when the final figures are in, we'll see I wasn't really wrong about whites, just that the racist voting pattern is in fact quite conveniently located on the the electoral map, thank goodness.

Oh you were right about the white vote.....apparently the browns sunk Romney's ship. 

http://news.yahoo.com/poll-latino-vote-devastated-gop-even-worse-exits-181922111--politics.html

[ProudModerate2]

Did everyone notice Cliffy's comment :

Congratulations you guys won and were right.

[King]

Obama is going to have to become widely popular before gloating can properly begin.

Give it 12 months.

[J. J.]

As for the polls, I think the only thing that I've said was that PPP had a D "house effect," probably in excess of +3 and that Rasmussen had a slight R "house effect." 

Sorry to break it to you JJ but PPP was just declared by Fordham the best pollster of this election season.

We're talking about good pollsters, not the best pollsters in this election.  Rasmussen was off by 2; PPP by 1 in their nationals.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

No question that M-D was well off.

[MASHED POTATOES. VOTE!]

Has anyone checked on Winfield? Is he OK?

Taggart is probably very depressed about his dad.

[opebo]

In my opinion or from my perception it seems that Hokey Dude was the one who really predicted this election just right.

[Landslide Lyndon]

As for the polls, I think the only thing that I've said was that PPP had a D "house effect," probably in excess of +3 and that Rasmussen had a slight R "house effect."  

Sorry to break it to you JJ but PPP was just declared by Fordham the best pollster of this election season.

We're talking about good pollsters, not the best pollsters in this election.  Rasmussen was off by 2; PPP by 1 in their nationals.

Rasmussen was off by 3.
PPP was spot on.

I know math is hard for Republicans but frankly I expected better from a member of MENSA.

[Eraserhead]

So JJ, will we finally get hit by the deluge in 2016?

[Brittain33]

Was this 1980? How close were we to Republicans gaining 12 seats in the Senate and a supermajority in the EV?

[J. J.]

As for the polls, I think the only thing that I've said was that PPP had a D "house effect," probably in excess of +3 and that Rasmussen had a slight R "house effect."  

Sorry to break it to you JJ but PPP was just declared by Fordham the best pollster of this election season.

We're talking about good pollsters, not the best pollsters in this election.  Rasmussen was off by 2; PPP by 1 in their nationals.

Rasmussen was off by 3.
PPP was spot on.

I know math is hard for Republicans but frankly I expected better from a member of MENSA.

Which poll are you even talking about? 

OH, I finally checked RCP.  In terms of spead, Rasmussen off by -1.9.  PPP off by +3.1, just at their MOE.

NC, R off -2.8, PPP +2.2

VA, R off -3, PPP +1 (R out of MOE)

NH, both off -3. (PPP out of MOE)

MI, R off -2.9, PPP off +1.9

PA, R off -0.1, PPP off +0.9

IA, R off -6.6, PPP off -4.6 (both out of MOE)*

WI R off -6.5. PPP  off -4.5 (both out of MOE)*

CO, R off -7.5, PPP off +1.5 (R out of MOE)*

NV R off -4.6, PPP off -2.6 (R out of MOE)*

MN, R off -2.4, PPP off +1.4

AZ, R off +3.6. PPP off +4.6 (PPP out of MOE)

MT, R off +2.9, PPP off +5.9 (PPP out of MOE)

CT, R off -10, PPP off -4 (Both out of MOE)*

MO, R off -1.4, PPP off +1.6

*Rasmussen's polls that were at least a week old (prior to 10/30) and out of MOE. 

http://www.realclearpolitics.com/polls/

You have 7 polls out of MOE for Rasmussen and 6 for PPP.  In the last week, you only have one Rasmussen out of MOE, and six for PPP.  Note that PPP does have a smaller MOE/

[Franzl]

J.J., I don't think you know what a margin of error is and how it is calculated.

[afleitch]

J.J., I don't think you know what a margin of error is and how it is calculated.

Nor can you really base how well polls did on the RCP average rather than what the actual result was, especially as RCP were picky as to what pollsters they included in their average.

So how did the pollsters do? Let's look at the predicited margin of victory for each candidate and look at the actual difference

A positive difference meant the result was too favourable for Obama and a negative result meant the result was too unfavourable for Obama

Colorado -  O+4.7.
PPP + 1.3 difference
RAS -7.7 difference

Florida - O+0.6
PPP  +0.4 difference
RAS -2.6 difference

Iowa - O+5.6
PPP - 3.6 difference
RAS -6.6 difference

Nevada - O+6.6
PPP - 2.6 difference
RAS - 4.6 difference

New Hampshire -  O+5.8
PPP -3.8 difference
RAS - 3.8 difference

North Carolina - R+2.2
PPP +2.2 difference
RAS +3.8 difference

Ohio - O+1.9
PPP +3.1 difference
RAS -1.9 difference

Virginia - O+3
PPP +1 difference
RAS -5 difference

Wisconsin - O+6.5
PPP -3.5 difference
RAS -6.5 difference

The Average of the above:

PPP -0.61% difference
RAS -3.88% difference

Rasmussen was way off across the board. PPP's house 'bias' was actually unfavourable to the President. Rasmussen only bested PPP in Ohio, which still has 200k votes to count and called it wrong. It called Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin wrong. Six key states. Even in North Carolina which it called right, it's error was still bigger than PPP's.

Rasmussen got the swing state calls poorly in 2008. It had one of the worst track records in the 2010 Senate polls and it probably has the worst record for any prolific, multi-state poster in 2012. There is, therefore, good reason to ignore them from now on.

[Landslide Lyndon]

It's really hillarious how our juvenile trolls like Cliffy and krazey admitted they were wrong and supposedly mature and intellectual JJ seems incapable of conceding defeat.

[Franzl]

It's really hillarious how our juvenile trolls like Cliffy and krazey admitted they were wrong and supposedly mature and intellectual JJ seems incapable of conceding defeat.

Who claims that?

[milhouse24]

What is this, a troll thread about trolls? 

There were just as many obnoxious Obama trolls like - wan

[Umengus]

I was wrong to think that the party id of the election day was between D+0 and D+3 and that whites would be 74%+ of the electorate. It was D+6. With D+6, Romney couldn't win at national level.

But i was right to oppose some Quinnipiac, PPP and marist polls wich were complety wrong, especially in OHIO.

Of course, MDixon in FL was very wrong too but since 2010, I was suspicious about MD (cfr NV senate race and polling).

Concerning Rasmussen, his mistake was the same of mine: he tought that the electorate would be D+2. With D+6 corrected, his poll was good


The biggest mistake by Romney team was to go on the whites vote only and to do nothing with hispanics voters. With the Hispanic Bush result (40 %) in 2004, Romney would have had a better chance to win.

[GeorgiaModerate]

Concerning Rasmussen, his mistake was the same of mine: he tought that the electorate would be D+2. With D+6 corrected, his poll was good

The mistake was in trusting his assumptions over what people are saying in actual survey results.  If one or two surveys show a D+6 and you expect D+2, they might be outliers, and it might or might not be reasonable to reweight the results accordingly.  But when a large number of surveys show responses with a different party split...then it's the assumptions that need reweighting, not the surveys!

[SPQR]

Any of those absurd Republican hacks has lost any credibility forever.

[Brittain33]

Thank you for posting this.

I have no idea what numbers J.J. was using or what point he believes they make compared to how the predictions fared against reality.

J.J., I don't think you know what a margin of error is and how it is calculated.

Nor can you really base how well polls did on the RCP average rather than what the actual result was, especially as RCP were picky as to what pollsters they included in their average.

So how did the pollsters do? Let's look at the predicited margin of victory for each candidate and look at the actual difference

A positive difference meant the result was too favourable for Obama and a negative result meant the result was too unfavourable for Obama

Colorado -  O+4.7.
PPP + 1.3 difference
RAS -7.7 difference

Florida - O+0.6
PPP  +0.4 difference
RAS -2.6 difference

Iowa - O+5.6
PPP - 3.6 difference
RAS -6.6 difference

Nevada - O+6.6
PPP - 2.6 difference
RAS - 4.6 difference

New Hampshire -  O+5.8
PPP -3.8 difference
RAS - 3.8 difference

North Carolina - R+2.2
PPP +2.2 difference
RAS +3.8 difference

Ohio - O+1.9
PPP +3.1 difference
RAS -1.9 difference

Virginia - O+3
PPP +1 difference
RAS -5 difference

Wisconsin - O+6.5
PPP -3.5 difference
RAS -6.5 difference

The Average of the above:

PPP -0.61% difference
RAS -3.88% difference

Rasmussen was way off across the board. PPP's house 'bias' was actually unfavourable to the President. Rasmussen only bested PPP in Ohio, which still has 200k votes to count and called it wrong. It called Colorado, Florida, Iowa, Ohio, Virginia and Wisconsin wrong. Six key states. Even in North Carolina which it called right, it's error was still bigger than PPP's.

Rasmussen got the swing state calls poorly in 2008. It had one of the worst track records in the 2010 Senate polls and it probably has the worst record for any prolific, multi-state poster in 2012. There is, therefore, good reason to ignore them from now on.

[Mister Twister]

Concerning Rasmussen, his mistake was the same of mine: he tought that the electorate would be D+2. With D+6 corrected, his poll was good

So if Rasmussen weren't completely wrong, his polls would be good? Nice analysis, buddy

[ProudModerate2]

Concerning Rasmussen, his mistake was the same of mine: he tought that the electorate would be D+2. With D+6 corrected, his poll was good

So if Rasmussen weren't completely wrong, his polls would be good? Nice analysis, buddy

LOL.
That was exactly my thoughts when I read his post.
But I initially felt I would just ignore it and not comment.

[Eraserhead]

Concerning Rasmussen, his mistake was the same of mine: he tought that the electorate would be D+2. With D+6 corrected, his poll was good

So if Rasmussen weren't completely wrong, his polls would be good? Nice analysis, buddy

LOL.
That was exactly my thoughts when I read his post.
But I initially felt I would just ignore it and not comment.

This is why you shouldn't try to arbitrarily decide what you "think" Party ID is going to look like. It's apparently what Rasmussen does and it's part of why he sucks so bad.