http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Thailand_legislative_election%2C_2005Legislative elections will be held in Thailand on 6 February 2005. At stake will be 500 seats in the House of Representatives (Sapha Poothaen Rassadorn). The House of Representatives consists of 400 members elected from single-member constituences and 100 members elected from national party lists on a proportional basis.
An election poster for Thai Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra in Bangkok, January 2005At the January 2001 elections, the Thais Love Thais Party (Phak Thai Rak Thai) of Prime Minister Thaksin Shinawatra won 248 of the 500 seats, and gained a majority by forming an alliance with the Thai Nation Party (Phak Chart Thai) of Chatichai Choonavan, which won 41 seats. Since then Thaksin's party has absorbed three minor parties, giving him about 300 seats in the legislature. The main opposition party, the Democratic Party of Thailand (Phak Prachatipat) won 128 seats in 2001.
At this election Thaksin's party is seeking to win an absolute majority in its own right, something no political party has ever achieved in Thailand at a genuinely free election (elections before 1992 were frequently rigged). A coalition of other parties and civil society groups has been formed to prevent this, arguing that Thaksin already has too much power and that giving him an absolute parliamentary majority will encourge what they allege are his authoritarian tendencies. Prominent academic Kasem Sirisamphan, for example, accuses Thaksin of running a "parliamentary dictatorship" and says that "people do not want a billionaire prime minister to further dominate the country and its politics."
Thaksin's party replies that it has provided Thailand with stable, competent and corruption-free government, although critics say that corruption has actually increased under Thaksin's watch. Party spokesperson Suranand Vejjajiva said that Thais Love Thais was "the first party which could translate its populist policies into action. Its achievements and Mr Thaksin's vision give the party a clear edge and it will win an absolute majority," he said.
Since 2001 the Thai party situation has been simplified by the disappearance of minor parties. Nearly all seats are expected to go to Thais Love Thais, Thai Nation and the Democratic Party. The only other significant party is the Great People Party (Phak Mahachon), a breakaway group from the Democratic Party.
The Democratic Party, now led by Banyat Bantadtan, does not seriously expect to defeat the coalition of the other two parties, but hopes to win 200 seats, which would be a gain of 70 seats. Thai Nation hopes mainly to avoid being eclipsed by its dominant coalition partner.
Promotion for Thaksin Shinawatra and his party on a Bangkok tuk-tuk (taxi)Thai politics tend to be regionally based. Thaksin is strongest in the north-east region (Isan), the poorest and most populated part of the country, where his populist policies are most popular. He is also dominant in the north, since he was born in Chiang Mai and has directed much government spending to his home region. Additionally, Thaksin's pro-business policies have won him a substantial following among the urban middle-class in Bangkok, the wealthiest part of the country. Thais Love Thais is strong in the Chao Phraya valley as well, although the region has historicaly been a stronghold of Thai Nation, which still dominates in some of the central provinces. The Democrats are strongest in the south, but also have strength among liberal-minded voters in the capital.
In the absence of reliable opinion polls, the outcome is hard to predict. During 2004 most observers suggested that Thaksin's popularity had declined since its peak in 2002, and that he was unlikely to achieve an absolute majority for his own party. The deaths of Muslim protesters in southern Thailand and the bird flu outbreak were seen as issues which the Thaksin government had handled badly.
These calculations have been upset by the disaster of the 2004 Indian Ocean earthquake, which devastated six southern coastal provinces. The tsunami and its aftermath had several effects on Thai politics: it drove the election campaign to a large extent out of the media, and also produced a strong sense of national solidarity, from both of which an incumbent government could be expected to benefit. Finally, most commentators have praised the Thaksin government's response to the disaster. Political commentator Veera Prateepchaikul, who identifies himself as an opponent of Thaksin, wrote in the Bangkok Post on 10 January: "Mr Thaksin deserves credit for his quick response to the disaster, his decisive leadership and his skills in crisis management."
Veera also pointed out that the provinces directly affected by the tsunami were part of the Democratic Party's southern stronghold, and that Thaksin's high profile, particularly on television, in delivering aid to the area might improve his party's chances of winning more seats in the south. "The Democrats might cry foul that Mr Thaksin is using the state media for campaign purposes," Veera wrote, "but the people may think otherwise." Only a miracle, he wrote, could turn the "tsunami tide which is now clearly in favour of Mr Thaksin."
Given such increased expectations, a failure by Thais Love Thais to win 250 seats would now be seen as a considerable setback for Thaksin. The Bangkok newspaper The Nation published predictions by its reporters on 8 January, predicting that of the 400 constituency seats, Thais Love Thais would win 233, the Democrats 94, Thai Nation 47 and Great People 26. If the parties achieved similar results in the 100 proportionate seats, this would give Thais Love Thais about 290 seats overall and the Democrats about 120 seats.
