Swing/trend map from 2012 to 2016 predictions

[5280]

In this thread, post your swing map from 2012 to 2016 of the presidency. Make your best guess.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Hillary/Kaine soundly beats Jindal/Flake.

[WalterMitty]

generic swing map assuming 1. the nation tires of 8 years of democrat rule and 2. the gop runs a half way decent candidate...not a wingnut.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

The problem is, the Republican Party turns "half way decent" candidates into wingnuts.

Romney was a great candidate until he had to deal with Santorum.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

generic swing map assuming 1. the nation tires of 8 years of democrat rule and 2. the gop runs a half way decent candidate...not a wingnut.

Why would WY, ID, AL and UT be D held in this scenario? AR, AZ, MT and WV at least have a hint of realism in them being D.

[WalterMitty]

...because romney maxed out in those western states, likely due to his mormonism.

you really think chris christie or someone similar would be romney's numbers in the west?

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

...because romney maxed out in those western states, likely due to his mormonism.

you really think chris christie or someone similar would be romney's numbers in the west?

No, I don't think Christie or anyone that isn't a Mormon and/or Westerner could match Romney's numbers in UT, although I don't think it, along with ID, WY, AL and AK, will go to the Democrats next election.

[Mr. Morden]

...because romney maxed out in those western states, likely due to his mormonism.

you really think chris christie or someone similar would be romney's numbers in the west?

No, I don't think Christie or anyone that isn't a Mormon and/or Westerner could match Romney's numbers in UT, although I don't think it, along with ID, WY, AL and AK, will go to the Democrats next election.

Mitty was posting a swing map, not a results map.

[Wake Me Up When The Hard Border Ends]

...because romney maxed out in those western states, likely due to his mormonism.

you really think chris christie or someone similar would be romney's numbers in the west?

No, I don't think Christie or anyone that isn't a Mormon and/or Westerner could match Romney's numbers in UT, although I don't think it, along with ID, WY, AL and AK, will go to the Democrats next election.

Mitty was posting a swing map, not a results map.

Thanks for pointing that out to me, I feel like an airhead now! Oh well, we live and we learn!

[opebo]

Hillary/Kaine soundly beats Jindal/Flake.

Could you post a results map for that contest as well?

I guess something like this, though obviously Jindal could never be the nominee:

[Ty440]

Hillary/Kaine soundly beats Jindal/Flake.

Could you post a results map for that contest as well?

I guess something like this, though obviously Jindal could never be the nominee:

Because Jindal is Non-Caucasian? That's the obebo that we all know and love...

[opebo]

Jindal could never be the nominee:

Because Jindal is Non-Caucasian? That's the obebo that we all know and love...

No, because Jindal is not the appropriate kind of non-caucasian.  The diabolical party will dredge up an Uncle Tomás, not an Uncle Taj.

[LastVoter]

grey: less than 2 points
light shade: 2-4 points
dark shade: 4 points or more
green: erratic swing likely(too early to predict).

[opebo]

grey: less than 2 points
light shade: 2-4 points
dark shade: 4 points or more
green: erratic swing likely(too early to predict).

So, your map would give us this outcome?:

[Maxwell]

The problem is, the Republican Party turns "half way decent" candidates into wingnuts.

Romney was a great candidate until he had to deal with Santorum.

You guys always bring this up, but why didn't Romney stand on principle? If he were such a great candidate, than how come all it took were a couple of states to go Santorums favor in order for him to change some key policy positions? Are you REALLY going to blame Santorum for that? I hate Santorum, but come on, deal in the real world. He's a bad candidate because nobody wanted him to BE nominee because of this clear weakness.

[Skill and Chance]

Trend:

The candidates should be fairly obvious.

[opebo]

Trend:

The candidates should be fairly obvious.

So you're envisioning this narrow-GOP-win election map?:

[Skill and Chance]

Trend:

The candidates should be fairly obvious.

So you're envisioning this narrow-GOP-win election map?:

I'm envisioning a 2000-style nightmare where MN and MI are in recount for weeks and Ryan has clearly won the popular vote.  Warner needs one of them.  Georgia looks like NC did this time.  Then again, Warner would probably see this Midwestern strategy coming and pick Klobuchar or Stabenow to the homestate safely.

[LastVoter]

grey: less than 2 points
light shade: 2-4 points
dark shade: 4 points or more
green: erratic swing likely(too early to predict).

So, your map would give us this outcome?:

Yep. I think a certain combination of party nominees would put Georgia in the swing territory. PA+MN could also be swings under certain circumstances.

[Kaine for Senate '18]

I'm envisioning a 2000-style nightmare where MN and MI are in recount for weeks and Ryan has clearly won the popular vote.  Warner needs one of them.  Georgia looks like NC did this time.  Then again, Warner would probably see this Midwestern strategy coming and pick Klobuchar or Stabenow to the homestate safely.

I could easily see Warner/Klobuchar, but I also doubt that Warner would have any trouble winning MN to begin with.

[Mehmentum]

-Hawaii and Illinios swing back because Obama's not on the ticket.

-Massachusets and Utah because Romney's not on the ticket.

-Wisconsin and Delaware because of Ryan and Biden respectively (unless they're nominated next time around, in which case their should swing toward them)

-Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana swing away because the autobailouts were a winning issue for Obama in those states and that issue will be done with in 4 years.

-New York and New Jeresy will trend R since there isn't a hurricaine to screw things up this time.

-The non coastal south will swing to the Democrats slightly to the dems now that Obama's gone.

-The coastal south will swing even more to the Democrats.  Especially North Carolina, which I expect will be about at the national popular vote in 2016.

-Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and to a lesser exten Arizona trend D due to latinos.

-Vermont and Maine always seem to trend Democratic in all of the past few elections.
 
-Not quite sure why I think Florida will trend R, I just feel it will.

-Alaska seems to be trending Democratic. A lot.  It trended D by 12 points since 2004.

[Skill and Chance]

I'm envisioning a 2000-style nightmare where MN and MI are in recount for weeks and Ryan has clearly won the popular vote.  Warner needs one of them.  Georgia looks like NC did this time.  Then again, Warner would probably see this Midwestern strategy coming and pick Klobuchar or Stabenow to the homestate safely.

I could easily see Warner/Klobuchar, but I also doubt that Warner would have any trouble winning MN to begin with.

Against a full court press in the Rust Belt with Ryan and Toomey, he could.  I kind of assumed the bottom falls out in the Midwest because I think the R's will focus all of their efforts there unless they get Martinez or Rubio.

[BaldEagle1991]

-Hawaii and Illinios swing back because Obama's not on the ticket.

-Massachusets and Utah because Romney's not on the ticket.

-Wisconsin and Delaware because of Ryan and Biden respectively (unless they're nominated next time around, in which case their should swing toward them)

-Michigan, Ohio, and Indiana swing away because the autobailouts were a winning issue for Obama in those states and that issue will be done with in 4 years.

-New York and New Jeresy will trend R since there isn't a hurricaine to screw things up this time.

-The non coastal south will swing to the Democrats slightly to the dems now that Obama's gone.

-The coastal south will swing even more to the Democrats.  Especially North Carolina, which I expect will be about at the national popular vote in 2016.

-Nevada, Colorado, New Mexico and to a lesser exten Arizona trend D due to latinos.

-Vermont and Maine always seem to trend Democratic in all of the past few elections.
 
-Not quite sure why I think Florida will trend R, I just feel it will.

-Alaska seems to be trending Democratic. A lot.  It trended D by 12 points since 2004.

This will only happen if Marco Rubio is the VP nominee.