Andrew Cuomo (D-NY) vs. Rick Santorum (R-PA)

[Averroës Nix]

I think that many of you are ascribing far too much predictive power to the "next in line" rule.

First of all, we have a limited number of data points. In two of those six cases (1980 and 1996), we're talking about eventual nominees whose stature within the GOP isn't matched by any Republican figure today. In other cases (2008, 2012, and possibly 1988), the outcome wasn't assured through the entire process. Even in retrospect, it's not obvious that McCain or Romney had to win the nomination, and although it's more arguable, I think that there's a strong case for the plausibility of a Dole nomination in '88.

(Was Romney even the runner-up in 2008? I'm inclined to say that he is, but I suspect that if Huckabee had won the nomination, most of us would think otherwise and we'd assume that the rule had held.)

In fact, when we look at modern era nominations in the Republican Party, 2000 - normally cited as an exception to the next-in-line rule - seems like the past contest that 2016 is most likely resemble. Santorum's claim to next-in-line status is a bit weak, anyway; Republican primary voters only turned to him after rejecting characters like Gingrich and Cain, and in the end he could only win five delegate-binding primaries and five caucuses in a fairly narrow slice of the country with Mitt Romney as his opponent. That's exceeding expectations for the guy who spent months driving around IA alone in his pick-up truck, but I don't see a strong reason to expect that it's more than that.

Republicans have a strong bench and a good chance of winning in 2016. I highly doubt that either the party's elites or its grassroots will be clamoring to nominate Santorum.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Cuomo would win by a similar margin to Obama's in 2012. I believe Santorum would wipe the floor with Cuomo in the South and Midwest though. The electoral college map might look something like this:

Cuomo/Kaine: 334 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee: 204 Electoral Votes