Unemployment rate end of Obama 2nd term?

[5280]

Any guesses?  Will it affect the Democrat candidate running in 2016?

[Skill and Chance]

I would go with 5.5%.  I really think it's "All crew prepare for takeoff!" for the economy once a deficit deal gets hammered out this winter.  The one wildcard is Europe, and it's a huge one.  If the EU goes down, unemployment will skyrocket.  So I would say:

Under 6.0: 65% chance
Between 6.0 and 10.0: 15% chance
Above 10.0: 20% chance

[adrac]

My guess would be 5-6%. While not a flourishing economy, I would imagine that improvement would do good things for the Democratic brand.

[Lambsbread]

EVERYONE WILL BE UNEMPLOYED
100%

Nah, it'll probably be between 6 and 8 percent at the most.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Probably 7%-ish. It's not like he's got much of a plan.

[Frodo]

My guess would be 5-6%. While not a flourishing economy, I would imagine that improvement would do good things for the Democratic brand.

^^^^^^^

This. 

[bedstuy]

The Federal Reserve says 6.0-6.8% for 2015.  So, maybe 5-6%ish is a decent guess. 

It's really not fair.  Why can't Obama benefit from a speculative bubble like Bush and Clinton?

[opebo]

I'll say 5%.

[Blue3]

Under 7%. Possibly under 6%,

[Negusa Nagast 🚀]

5% low end, 6.5% high-end.

[Mr.Phips]

Depends on whether there is another recession in the next three years.  If not, it will probably likely be under 6%.  If so, it will likely still be over 7% due to the fact that the unemployment rate almost always keeps rising until about a year and a half after a recession ends.  Based on what im seeing, Im not seeing another recession until mid-late 2014 at the earliest. 

[milhouse24]

Probably around 7%

It depends on how Obamacare is implemented.  That's really what is slowing down hiring.  You saw that after the SC ruled on Obamacare, unemployment started going down because some companies realized that it was here to stay, so they bit the bullet and hired more people.  What companies hate is "uncertainty" and before the SC ruling, companies didn't know what tax penalties to expect.  As Obamacare is slowly implemented, some companies will start hiring, while others will start laying off people. 

[Warren 4 Secretary of Everything]

Probably around 7%

It depends on how Obamacare is implemented.  That's really what is slowing down hiring.  You saw that after the SC ruled on Obamacare, unemployment started going down because some companies realized that it was here to stay, so they bit the bullet and hired more people.  What companies hate is "uncertainty" and before the SC ruling, companies didn't know what tax penalties to expect.  As Obamacare is slowly implemented, some companies will start hiring, while others will start laying off people. 

Unemployment started falling in September 2011.
But I have no idea. If Obama and Congress can compromise and e get a grand bargain in the next 3 months, we could see it between 5-6%. But if we fall over the Fiscal Cliff, its likely to stay in the 7-8% range, and might shoot up to 9% if the CBO Analysis is correct.

[GLPman]

I have yet to see or hear of any evidence that the economy is on the right track or will be on the right track soon. Our government is gridlocked and we haven't seen any real solutions for a number of years. 7-8% is my guess.

[opebo]

Probably 7%-ish. It's not like he's got much of a plan.

I have yet to see or hear of any evidence that the economy is on the right track or will be on the right track soon. Our government is gridlocked and we haven't seen any real solutions for a number of years.

Guys, what 'plan' or government solutions are you talking about?  I thought right wingers opposed the state controlling the economy.  Of course Obama has almost no control and even only the most tenuous influence over the economy - it is mostly left a chaotic mess (capitalism), and the only control over it is exerted by the Fed and Congress (the former being hugely encouraging, the latter being terrifying).

[Cryptic]

Probably around 5-6%.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Islamomarxist Barry Hussein Soetoro will make sure that everyone will have to rely on welfare. The only employed people will be the public sector union hogs and green energy producers.

[MATTROSE94]

I'd say unemployment would be anywhere between 5-7% under Obama's second term

[California8429]

6-7%