Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
February 25, 2020, 12:46:11 am
News: 2020 Presidential Predictions (General) are now active.

  Atlas Forum
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderators: Torie, Senator ON Progressive)
  Alaska had the largest swing to Obama of any state, but somewhere was larger
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Alaska had the largest swing to Obama of any state, but somewhere was larger  (Read 2267 times)
Dr. RI
realisticidealist
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 12,969
Vatican City State


Political Matrix
E: -0.39, S: 4.52

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: November 11, 2012, 06:26:48 pm »

And that would be the territory of Guam, which had a swing to Obama of 20.55%. Here's a quick rundown of Guam's voting history:

2012: Obama 72.39%, Romney 26.49%, Johnson 1.12%
2008: Obama 62.34%, McCain 37.00%, Barr 0.66%
2004: Bush 64.08%, Kerry 35.13%, Nader 0.58%, Badnarik 0.20%
2000: Bush 51.58%, Gore 47.22%, Browne 1.20%
1996: Clinton 59.67%, Dole 38.79%, Browne 1.54%
1992: Clinton won, numbers unknown, Marrou 0.67%
1988: Bush won, numbers unknown, Paul 0.53%
1984: Reagan won, numbers unknown, Bergland 0.50%
1980: Carter won, numbers unknown, Clark 0.80%

Guam seems to have a very strong incumbent bias, not unlike Hawaii perhaps.
Logged
Cath
Cathcon
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 24,550
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: November 11, 2012, 06:46:37 pm »

In general, its vote seems a good predictor who won the race in real life. Only time Guam ddint' vote for the winner looks to be 1980.
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37,892
United States


P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: November 11, 2012, 08:04:07 pm »

Guam would really like to be a state, so they tend to suck up to the party in power in hopes that will help it with that and with getting more money from Washington.  The latter maybe, but Guam's too small.  Even combined with the Northern Marianas, they still have a little less than 30% of a CD worth of population.  Even if the Marshalls, Micronesia and Palau joined in, the population of a state of Pacifica would only be about 60% of a CD.  Despite all that, if it were not for the Senate, I think Guam would be able to get Statehood, but as is, it's impossible.
Logged
Mehmentum
Icefire9
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,507
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: November 11, 2012, 08:36:44 pm »

Guam would really like to be a state, so they tend to suck up to the party in power in hopes that will help it with that and with getting more money from Washington.  The latter maybe, but Guam's too small.  Even combined with the Northern Marianas, they still have a little less than 30% of a CD worth of population.  Even if the Marshalls, Micronesia and Palau joined in, the population of a state of Pacifica would only be about 60% of a CD.  Despite all that, if it were not for the Senate, I think Guam would be able to get Statehood, but as is, it's impossible.
Would the state 'Pacifica' even be that realistic of a proposition.  I don't know how the residents of these territories would feel about being lumped together like that.
Logged
memphis
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 15,990


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: November 11, 2012, 09:41:28 pm »

Guam votes for president?
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37,892
United States


P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: November 12, 2012, 11:00:51 am »

Would the state 'Pacifica' even be that realistic of a proposition.  I don't know how the residents of these territories would feel about being lumped together like that.

Doubtful they would want to be lumped together, since with the exception of the Northern Marianas, the former Trust Territory of the Pacific Islands chose to head off in the direction of independence once the trust territory was ended.  I'm just saying that a Pacifica as I outlined is likely the only way of Guam has of ever becoming a State or a portion of a State, and even then, that would likely happen only if the Senate were eliminated or its power was severely curtailed.
Logged
Benj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 983


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: November 12, 2012, 11:08:49 am »

Has Guam ever been offered the possibility of joining Hawaii? Seems like the best solution to getting them "statehood", as it were.
Logged
Oh Jeremy Corbyn!
unempprof
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 3,635


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: November 12, 2012, 12:39:02 pm »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.
Logged
The Chad Pygmy Marmosets
Kalwejt
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 55,435


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: November 12, 2012, 02:02:45 pm »

Guam would really like to be a state, so they tend to suck up to the party in power in hopes that will help it with that and with getting more money from Washington.  The latter maybe, but Guam's too small.  Even combined with the Northern Marianas, they still have a little less than 30% of a CD worth of population.  Even if the Marshalls, Micronesia and Palau joined in, the population of a state of Pacifica would only be about 60% of a CD.  Despite all that, if it were not for the Senate, I think Guam would be able to get Statehood, but as is, it's impossible.

Looks like the only territory with enough population to become a state is Puerto Rico.
Logged
Benj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 983


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: November 12, 2012, 08:14:25 pm »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.

True, but that's not necessarily a bar, unless the Guamanians think it is.
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37,892
United States


P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: November 12, 2012, 09:38:46 pm »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.

True, but that's not necessarily a bar, unless the Guamanians think it is.

There's a twenty hour difference between Guam and Hawaii.  If they were all one state, the polls in Guam would be closed and counted even before the polls in Hawaii.
Logged
Benj
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 983


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: November 12, 2012, 09:49:25 pm »
« Edited: November 12, 2012, 09:51:38 pm by Benj »

Guam is so far away from Hawaii it's not even funny.

True, but that's not necessarily a bar, unless the Guamanians think it is.

There's a twenty hour difference between Guam and Hawaii.  If they were all one state, the polls in Guam would be closed and counted even before the polls in Hawaii.

Or they would vote the next day, in which case there would be only a four-hour difference. Not hard. I'm sure Congress would waive the ordinary requirement for federal offices (as they would pretty much have to if Guam were a state itself anyway), and state law is state law and easy to change.
Logged
minionofmidas - supplemental forum account
Lewis Trondheim
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 58,239
India


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: November 13, 2012, 05:52:06 am »

Just have Hawaii (and all the rest of the Pacific, as it makes so much sense in every remaining case except Hawaii and Isla de Pascua that it's eventual happening is pretty much inevitable) cross the Date Line.
Logged
True Federalist
Ernest
Moderators
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 37,892
United States


P

WWW Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: November 13, 2012, 11:04:56 am »

Just have Hawaii (and all the rest of the Pacific, as it makes so much sense in every remaining case except Hawaii and Isla de Pascua that it's eventual happening is pretty much inevitable) cross the Date Line.


Ideally the date line should be in the Atlantic.
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC