States' Longest swing/trend streaks

[nclib]

Swing:

DEM: AK - 3 times
         MD, MS, NJ, NY - 2
GOP: AR, TN - 5
         OK, WV - 4

Trend:

DEM: CA, VA, WA - 4 times
GOP: AR, WV - 5 times
        KY, MO - 4 times
        TN - 3 times

Illinois had the longest Dem trend streak before this year (1976 was last GOP trend).

[Skill and Chance]

The biggest surprise of these has to be CA moving solidly into New England territory in terms of Democratic affinity.  I think most people expected a fall-back to 55-58% Obama there, and instead he is within inches of 60% and the state is D+9.

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Can someone tell me the difference between swing and trend? Probably a stupid question, but it would sure be helpful.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

Can someone tell me the difference between swing and trend? Probably a stupid question, but it would sure be helpful.

The swing is the change in absolute margin, the trend is the change in relative margin to the nation as a whole.

Ex. Iowa:
2008 - +9.5 O (national +7.3 O)
2012 - +5.8 O (national +3.1 O)
Swing: +3.7 R
Trend: +0.5 O

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Can someone tell me the difference between swing and trend? Probably a stupid question, but it would sure be helpful.

Swing is just the actual result of a place. State X went from being 56% D in ´08 to 55% D in ´12. So it swung Republican.

Trend is the result compared to the national average. So in '08 the State was 3% more D than the national average, but in '12 it was 4% more D than the national average. So even though state X swung Republican, it trended Democratic.   

[HagridOfTheDeep]

Oh, I see. So when we talk about the trend of a county in a certain state, are we comparing it to the state average or the national average?

[World politics is up Schmitt creek]

Oh, I see. So when we talk about the trend of a county in a certain state, are we comparing it to the state average or the national average?

Usually the latter as that's what it is on Dave's maps. If we were discussing it relative to the state average we'd probably say so explicitly.