Mirror image of the 2004 election

[Redban]

Popular Vote
2004 - Bush got 50.7%.
2012 - Obama got 50.6%

2004 - Bush got 62,040,610 votes.
2012 - Obama got 62,156,980 votes.

Margin of victory
2004 - Bush got 2.47% more than Kerry.
2012 - Obama got 2.7% more than Romney.

2004 - Bush got 3,012,171 more votes than Kerry.
2012 - Obama got 3,351,920 more votes than Romney.

It was also a similar situation.

One on side, an incumbent president with moderate approval ratings seeking re-election. On the other side, a challenger who people support only because there was nobody better.

Who knows, maybe Obama leaves office with a 20% approval rating like Bush did. Then the Republicans get huge momentum for the 2016 election.

[Fmr President & Senator Polnut]

They're still counting...

[Benj]

Also, while Bush was unpopular, he was never at 20%. Not sure he ever even dipped below 30%, though he was definitely close.

[Redban]

Also, while Bush was unpopular, he was never at 20%. Not sure he ever even dipped below 30%, though he was definitely close.

He left office at 22%, according to CBS/NY Times Poll. Other polls have it different, but this was the one I had in mind.

Gallup had Bush at 34% in his final day. But he was in the 20%-range for most of 2008.

(I can't post links without 20 posts, but you can find it easily)

[Bacon King]

Well, one thing's for sure, America sure does hate flip-flopping rich guys from Massachusetts with nice hair.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now, let's hope that Paul Ryan's career will follow the same trajectory as that of John Edwards. 

[7,052,770]

I loved John Kerry and still idolize him to this day, and I think lots of Democrats do too.  At least much moreso than Republicans and Romney.

[sg0508]

The difference is that Bush didn't really seem to be growing the GOP map in 2004.  The NM win was due to support amongst hispanics, which he did pretty well with.

In 2012, Obama defended pretty much everything and you see clear opportunities for the democrats to further reshape the electoral map going forward.

[Eraserhead]

There are definitely a lot of similarities but Obama's electoral vote victory was much stronger.

[Link]

It was also a similar situation.

No.  If you were alive back then and watched TV and read the papers you would realize we were intensely fighting two wars and Americans are loathed to change horses in the middle of a war.  Iraq is over and Afghanistan is winding down with date certain for an exit.  Romney for all his stupid bellicosity when pressed says he 100% agrees with the president's time table.  Actually the war wasn't even mentioned this election.

Also expand out and look at the legislative branch.  There were tons of Dem upsets and the Dems added more seats to both chambers.

[BlueSwan]

I loved John Kerry and still idolize him to this day, and I think lots of Democrats do too.

Yeah, me too, but I do think that there are some merits to the comparison. A lot of people had a decidedly "meh" reaction to Kerry and only voted for him because they wanted to get rid of Bush.

[anvi]

The race really had a "2004-in-reverse" feel to me all the way through.

[tmthforu94]

Now, let's hope that Paul Ryan's career will follow the same trajectory as that of John Edwards. 

What a horrible thing to wish upon someone.

[Landslide Lyndon]

Now, let's hope that Paul Ryan's career will follow the same trajectory as that of John Edwards. 

What a horrible thing to wish upon someone.

Well, Paul Ryan is a horrible human being.

[Stranger in a strange land]

Also, while Bush was unpopular, he was never at 20%. Not sure he ever even dipped below 30%, though he was definitely close.

He left office at 22%, according to CBS/NY Times Poll. Other polls have it different, but this was the one I had in mind.

Gallup had Bush at 34% in his final day. But he was in the 20%-range for most of 2008.

(I can't post links without 20 posts, but you can find it easily)

Most presidents see their approvals go up when they're about to leave office. Bush's approvals were in the 20s for most of 2007-2008, and much was made of the fact they were so low for so long.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

The race really had a "2004-in-reverse" feel to me all the way through.

Absolutely, yes. Right down to the sucker-punch moment Republicans must have felt wrt Ohio.

[Vosem]

Now, let's hope that Paul Ryan's career will follow the same trajectory as that of John Edwards. 

What a horrible thing to wish upon someone.

Well, Paul Ryan is a horrible human being.

Px75 is a well-known judge of character.

[badgate]

OP, by my calculation Obama is now at 51.4% of the popular vote.

[The Mikado]

OP, by my calculation Obama is now at 51.4% of the popular vote.

You're leaving out the third parties.

[badgate]

OP, by my calculation Obama is now at 51.4% of the popular vote.

You're leaving out the third parties.

You're right. I did a calculation based on the votes between Obama and Romney. How embarrassing

[CountryRoads]

Now, let's hope that Paul Ryan's career will follow the same trajectory as that of John Edwards. 

What a horrible thing to wish upon someone.

Well, Paul Ryan is a horrible human being.

Because you know him so WELL, right?

[The Free North]

Well, one thing's for sure, America sure does hate flip-flopping rich guys from Massachusetts with nice hair.

Yeah it seems like Massachusetts politicians havent had national success in a long time

[pbrower2a]

Popular Vote
2004 - Bush got 50.7%.
2012 - Obama got 50.6%

2004 - Bush got 62,040,610 votes.
2012 - Obama got 62,156,980 votes.

Margin of victory
2004 - Bush got 2.47% more than Kerry.
2012 - Obama got 2.7% more than Romney.

2004 - Bush got 3,012,171 more votes than Kerry.
2012 - Obama got 3,351,920 more votes than Romney.

It was also a similar situation.

One on side, an incumbent president with moderate approval ratings seeking re-election. On the other side, a challenger who people support only because there was nobody better.

Who knows, maybe Obama leaves office with a 20% approval rating like Bush did. Then the Republicans get huge momentum for the 2016 election.

Very dissimilar. Dubya had been elected in an election in which he lost the popular vote; one has to be a complete nut to deny that Barack Obama won fair and square in 2008.  Dubya had two wars going on and they had yet to prove as unpopular as they would be. Dubya entered in an economic recession; Obama entered office as the economy was in a meltdown.   Dubya had huge scandals about to break. One of the big differences was that Dubya bungled a natural disaster, but that would not show up until 2005.  Sandy may not be a perfect analogue to Katrina, but the difference in response and political consequences could hardly be more different.

The more fitting analogue to the likely end of the Obama Presidency could be 1960. Barack Obama is more a liberal version of Dwight Eisenhower but without the military record and fifteen years younger. There is hope with that analogue -- Barack Obama is probably an above-average President as was Ike, and JFK -- not Nixon -- followed Eisenhower. Dubya may have been the worst President in American history.   

[Person Man]

Who would be the Republican version of JFK, though?

[Sol]

Who would be the Republican version of JFK, though?

Rubio?

A historic "first", and rather charismatic.