The 13 states remain independent and do not form a union

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

If there's no union at all, then we're talking about there being not even any Articles of Confederation being ratified in 1781.  Since what kept the Articles from being ratified was Maryland's refusal to do so until New York and Virginia had agreed to cede their vast western land claims, that is the most likely reason for failure of ratification.

If land claims had been so intransigently kept as to prevent ratification, then post-Independence, besides Vermont, there likely would have been a war over Wyoming (the valley in Pennsylvania, not the later territory out west that was weirdly named after it).

So probably, the northeast would be have in turmoil while Virginia, the Carolinas, and Georgia set up a confederation of their own, which would have included what became the Northwest Territory.

The squabbling in America might have led there to be less enthusiasm for revolution in France, but if not, I'm fairly certain several American states would have managed to get themselves embroiled in the Revolutionary/Napoleonic Wars.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Assuming that the French Revolution happens much as it did in our time line, I'd expect that France does not get to keep Louisiana.  Whether Britain, Spain, or one or more of the American States get it is debatable, but Britain will not allow France to keep it once Napoleon is defeated.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

I do notice y'all are all assuming the French Revolution happens largely unchanged.  A less successful American Revolution would mean a reduction in revolutionary ardor in France with all sorts of pretty butterflies.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

Even if they start fighting wars amongst themselves and/or some of them decide to establish monarchies of their own? What if instead of preventing the mutiny at the end of the war, the Commander-in-Chief had led it, starting a civil war?