Vote counting update thread

[Antonio the Sixth]

If only we had an idea how many votes are left to count...

We need around 5 million more to beat 2008's total vote. But considering population growth, we'd need the total vote to grow by 3% or something in order for turnout to hold steady. That would require around 4 million more votes.

What do you guys think? Is it possible that 9 million ballots are still uncounted?

[politicallefty]

I'm not sure how many ballots remain uncounted, but I doubt total turnout will hit the 2008 number. There probably aren't 4 million, let alone 9 million.

Also, Obama is now at 59.8% in California.

[sg0508]

This is really bad. Suppose the election actually DID come down to OH, PA and CO.  We're still counting ballots?

[AndyAJS]

New spreadsheets with the latest county data for CA, NJ and UT are linked to from my national totals spreadsheet (see the link in my signature).

My CA figures are currently slightly ahead of David Wasserman's.

[heatmaster]

The 2012 election vote counting....is like the energizer bunny, it keeps on going and going! Ohio doesn't have to rush, Obama won the state; so everyone can go home now and get ready fror next time....roll on 2016!

[AndyAJS]

About 60,000 new votes have just been reported in Los Angeles County which takes Romney below 47.5% according to my figures, and I think according to Dave Wasserman's figures as well - once he updates them.

[Tender Branson]

The final Colorado results with Larimer County now fully in:

1.308.607 votes - 51.6% Obama
1.168.839 votes - 46.1% Romney
     60.222 votes -   2.3% Others

The Colorado SOS page and Wikipedia still show the old results for CO and Larimer.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

[Tender Branson]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

[AndyAJS]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

You can compare the current vote totals with the 2008 totals on the spreadsheet below in my signature.

Other information: just noticed that Romney won Pike County, Ohio by one vote.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Hi Andy. I took the time to compare the vote totals between yours and Wasserman's results, and it looks like you both miss some votes.

Red States are those where Wasserman has more votes counted, the blue ones are those where you do. The lightest shade indicate a difference of less than 1000, the intermediate one of between 1000 and 10000 and the darkest one over 10000. Overall, Wasserman misses 105,824 votes, of which 61,019 are from California and 27,485 from Pennsylvania. You miss 161,148 votes, mainly from MS, OH and TX.

If you could update your spreadsheet with Wasserman's data in these States, it would be great.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

[Antonio the Sixth]

So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

Slightly worse I think, around 4.9%.

Pretty depressing... hopefully the last ballots to come will push Obama up.

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

Slightly worse I think, around 4.9%.

Pretty depressing... hopefully the last ballots to come will push Obama up.

Are they from Philly?

[AndyAJS]

So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

Slightly worse I think, around 4.9%.

Pretty depressing... hopefully the last ballots to come will push Obama up.

Are they from Philly?

Wasserman's PA figures are slightly out-of-date compared to mine which I compiled more recently by going through the county websites a couple of days ago. They're the figures being used on Wikipedia:

Obama 2,937,135 (51.77%)
Romney 2,654,895 (46.77%)

Obama lead: 282,240 (4.97%)

I've just finished compiling a spreadsheet with the latest Ohio data from county websites:

Obama 2,707,566 (50.06%)
Romney 2,603,722 (48.14%)

Obama lead: 103,744 (1.92%)

This new data means Romney is now on 47.48% nationally.
That figure will appear on Wikipedia shortly.

I'm surprised Wasserman hasn't updated his CA figures yet. New votes came in from LA more than 24 hours ago now.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He almost hasn't made any update since Wednesday.

[DINGO Joe]

So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

Slightly worse I think, around 4.9%.

Pretty depressing... hopefully the last ballots to come will push Obama up.

Are they from Philly?

Don't think there are many votes left in PA to count despite the low turnout vs 2008, however Philly did have some problems election night which resulted in 27,000 provisional ballots being issued vs 12,000 in 08.  Thus it is likely that the bulk of votes left in PA to be counted are in Philly.

[DINGO Joe]

He almost hasn't made any update since Wednesday.

It a Holiday, not much to update.

[DINGO Joe]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

I guess there are roughly 500,000 votes left to count with a little over 150,000 in LA and 57,000 in San Diego, 27,000 in Sacramento.  Believe it or not there are a few counties that haven't provided any updates since election night and I guess won't until they're certified.  Most of those counties are democratic counties though they aren't huge population centers.

[AndyAJS]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

I guess there are roughly 500,000 votes left to count with a little over 150,000 in LA and 57,000 in San Diego, 27,000 in Sacramento.  Believe it or not there are a few counties that haven't provided any updates since election night and I guess won't until they're certified.  Most of those counties are democratic counties though they aren't huge population centers.

Absolutely. New York hasn't updated its figures since election night.

Current figures:
Obama 3,875,826; Romney 2,226,637; Total 6,186,881

2008 figures:
Obama 4,804,701; McCain 2,752,728; Total 7,640,640

I don't think turnout will drop by more than a million votes which means a minimum of 450,000 votes still to come and as you say the vast majority of them will be for the Democrats.

[Antonio the Sixth]

He almost hasn't made any update since Wednesday.

It a Holiday, not much to update.

But California has, and he hasn't been keeping track of it.

[DINGO Joe]

As for Ohio, it seems that the counties provide update after each county Board of Election certifies the results.  About 20 counties have completed the process, mostly smaller and most Republican counties.  Most of the big counties with the most votes left are slated to meet either Mon or Tue, so by Wed it'll be known.  The counties that have provide final results have only been accepting about 2/3rds of the ballots outstanding so overall that means closer to 200000 votes to be added overall vs the 300000 ballots outstanding.   Of the votes added Obama is running roughly 10% or more ahead of what election night results were.  For example the largest county to report thus far is Butler county which Romney won with about 62% of the votes, Obama won 3100 to 2950 in the votes added in the final results.

I'd guess that the margin of victory for Obama will increase to above 150,000 votes and will be close the 3%

[AndyAJS]

As for Ohio, it seems that the counties provide update after each county Board of Election certifies the results.  About 20 counties have completed the process, mostly smaller and most Republican counties.  Most of the big counties with the most votes left are slated to meet either Mon or Tue, so by Wed it'll be known.  The counties that have provide final results have only been accepting about 2/3rds of the ballots outstanding so overall that means closer to 200000 votes to be added overall vs the 300000 ballots outstanding.   Of the votes added Obama is running roughly 10% or more ahead of what election night results were.  For example the largest county to report thus far is Butler county which Romney won with about 62% of the votes, Obama won 3100 to 2950 in the votes added in the final results.

I'd guess that the margin of victory for Obama will increase to above 150,000 votes and will be close the 3%

What do you think will happen to Obama's lead in Pennsylvania as the last votes are counted?

It will be interesting if the gap between Obama's lead in PA and OH is pretty small, such as less than 2% for example.

[DINGO Joe]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

I guess there are roughly 500,000 votes left to count with a little over 150,000 in LA and 57,000 in San Diego, 27,000 in Sacramento.  Believe it or not there are a few counties that haven't provided any updates since election night and I guess won't until they're certified.  Most of those counties are democratic counties though they aren't huge population centers.

Absolutely. New York hasn't updated its figures since election night.

Current figures:
Obama 3,875,826; Romney 2,226,637; Total 6,186,881

2008 figures:
Obama 4,804,701; McCain 2,752,728; Total 7,640,640

I don't think turnout will drop by more than a million votes which means a minimum of 450,000 votes still to come and as you say the vast majority of them will be for the Democrats.

Actually, I was referring to California--Mendocino, Humboldt, Lake and a few others haven't provided any updates since the election.

New York is notorious for being this way and obviously Sandy means it's quite likely that that an above average number of votes remain.  NJ I have no feel for whatsoever.  Could be that a million votes between to two remain to be added.