Vote counting update thread
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Author Topic: Vote counting update thread  (Read 43806 times)
Eraserhead
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« Reply #100 on: November 27, 2012, 11:53:23 PM »

Percentage-wise (rounded up), is it safe yet to conclude that President Obama won with 52% of the popular vote, and Romney is now Mr. 47%?  How close are we? 

The final percentage will be about 51.0-47.2.

Sounds about right. I'd be shocked if Obama rounds up to 52%.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #101 on: November 28, 2012, 12:10:41 AM »

Why did Obama just go under 50 in Florida again?

Dave includes about 15,000 write-ins that the state doesn't seem to include in their official results
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #102 on: November 28, 2012, 01:55:18 AM »

After counting provisionals in Ohio today, Obama's lead has jumped from about 2% to 2.72%! And Columbus provisionals are apparently still not counted.

Obama is also up to 50.88% nationally, leading Romney by 3.48%.
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Fuzzybigfoot
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« Reply #103 on: November 28, 2012, 02:25:01 AM »

lol, my prediction score will stay the same, even with the changes in Florida and California. 
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bgwah
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« Reply #104 on: November 28, 2012, 02:30:20 AM »


We'll see if it holds up once write-ins are added...
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sg0508
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« Reply #105 on: November 28, 2012, 10:35:32 AM »

It's still unbelievable that we're counting ballots in this country.  What's wrong with us?
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #106 on: November 28, 2012, 03:47:21 PM »

After counting provisionals in Ohio today, Obama's lead has jumped from about 2% to 2.72%! And Columbus provisionals are apparently still not counted.

Obama is also up to 50.88% nationally, leading Romney by 3.48%.

Hopefully we can climb to at least 3.5 points.
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Eraserhead
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« Reply #107 on: November 28, 2012, 05:47:21 PM »

After counting provisionals in Ohio today, Obama's lead has jumped from about 2% to 2.72%! And Columbus provisionals are apparently still not counted.

Obama is also up to 50.88% nationally, leading Romney by 3.48%.

Hopefully we can climb to at least 3.5 points.

That's a given.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #108 on: November 28, 2012, 06:23:53 PM »

He's already broken 3.5 points today. Nearly at a 3% lead in Ohio as well.
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Minnesota Mike
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« Reply #109 on: November 28, 2012, 07:05:05 PM »

Ohio is a disaster waiting to happen. Can you imagine outrage by the right wing  if Ohio had been the tipping point state and a narrow Republican lead on election night turned into a Democratic win 3 weeks after the election when provisionals are counted?  It would be chaos.
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AndyAJS
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« Reply #110 on: November 28, 2012, 07:13:44 PM »

My latest figures (calculated independently of Dave Wasserman):

Obama: 65,063,930 (50.89%)
Romney: 60,553,697 (47.37%)

Obama lead: 4,510,233 (3.53%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFp2dUlkNWlJeGN5NFUxa0F3cXpoLXc#gid=0

Pennsylvania, Obama lead: 5.39%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDNrd2toVlVBbHhGdU1DNGVxZEpFOGc#gid=0


Ohio, Obama lead: 2.94%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFlPcEExVkl6czQ3S2FRRHF0V0lYeVE#gid=0
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Antonio the Sixth
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« Reply #111 on: November 28, 2012, 07:50:08 PM »

After counting provisionals in Ohio today, Obama's lead has jumped from about 2% to 2.72%! And Columbus provisionals are apparently still not counted.

Obama is also up to 50.88% nationally, leading Romney by 3.48%.

Hopefully we can climb to at least 3.5 points.

That's a given.

I was talking about Ohio. Wink
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nclib
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« Reply #112 on: November 28, 2012, 08:07:36 PM »

Which counties have flipped from Election Night?

Riverside, CA
Latah, ID

any others...
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Benj
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« Reply #113 on: November 28, 2012, 11:11:24 PM »

Which counties have flipped from Election Night?

Riverside, CA
Latah, ID

any others...

Centre, PA, Stanislaus, CA and Stark, OH (not yet on Atlas, but it has flipped), off the top of my head.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #114 on: November 30, 2012, 04:40:58 AM »

Which counties have flipped from Election Night?

Riverside, CA
Latah, ID

any others...
Latah hasn't flipped from election night, though maybe it flipped to R with absentees and flipped back with provisionals?
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Benj
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« Reply #115 on: November 30, 2012, 12:49:05 PM »
« Edited: November 30, 2012, 12:50:41 PM by Benj »

New vote dump in some California counties. Notably, Santa Clara County (San Jose) has now cleared 70% for Obama, while Stanislaus County (Modesto) has cleared 50%. Additionally, Stanislaus, San Joaquin (Stockton) and Merced Counties have now swung to Obama--that's a sign of really dramatic change in that part of California. Los Angeles County and Kern County (Bakersfield) have now also swung to Obama. Not sure if San Francisco County had swung towards Obama before, but it has now.
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #116 on: November 30, 2012, 01:26:52 PM »

Are Ohio results now final?
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politicallefty
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« Reply #117 on: November 30, 2012, 01:40:42 PM »

New vote dump in some California counties. Notably, Santa Clara County (San Jose) has now cleared 70% for Obama, while Stanislaus County (Modesto) has cleared 50%. Additionally, Stanislaus, San Joaquin (Stockton) and Merced Counties have now swung to Obama--that's a sign of really dramatic change in that part of California. Los Angeles County and Kern County (Bakersfield) have now also swung to Obama. Not sure if San Francisco County had swung towards Obama before, but it has now.

That's very impressive. I'd have figured that Obama maxed out the Bay Area vote in 2008 (short of a national landslide or Huckabee-type socon). San Francisco swinging even more Democratic is pretty surprising. It looks Romney really collapsed among Asians in California, which might have had something to do with the swings there (i.e. SF, Alameda, and Santa Clara). The other counties are probably related to the Hispanic vote, but the exit polls didn't pick that up. I wonder if there's enough left in LA to push Obama above 70% there.
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DINGO Joe
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« Reply #118 on: November 30, 2012, 01:44:27 PM »


Not quite, about 10 counties left to report, maybe 15,000 votes or so.
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DINGO Joe
dingojoe
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« Reply #119 on: November 30, 2012, 01:47:05 PM »

New vote dump in some California counties. Notably, Santa Clara County (San Jose) has now cleared 70% for Obama, while Stanislaus County (Modesto) has cleared 50%. Additionally, Stanislaus, San Joaquin (Stockton) and Merced Counties have now swung to Obama--that's a sign of really dramatic change in that part of California. Los Angeles County and Kern County (Bakersfield) have now also swung to Obama. Not sure if San Francisco County had swung towards Obama before, but it has now.

When it's updated, San Bernadino will also swing to the D.  I expect Fresno will flip to D (though not swing) as they have apparently waited to the absolute end to count provisionals.
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politicallefty
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« Reply #120 on: November 30, 2012, 02:08:57 PM »

Kansas has now certified its results, which is noteworthy because Romney actually did not get above 60% (final result 59.7-37.9). That gives me an extra point for my prediction. Smiley
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ucscgaldamez
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« Reply #121 on: November 30, 2012, 03:50:59 PM »

Los Angeles is almost done with their counting. I am not sure if today will be their last release.
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timothyinMD
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« Reply #122 on: November 30, 2012, 04:11:43 PM »

New vote dump in some California counties. Notably, Santa Clara County (San Jose) has now cleared 70% for Obama, while Stanislaus County (Modesto) has cleared 50%. Additionally, Stanislaus, San Joaquin (Stockton) and Merced Counties have now swung to Obama--that's a sign of really dramatic change in that part of California. Los Angeles County and Kern County (Bakersfield) have now also swung to Obama. Not sure if San Francisco County had swung towards Obama before, but it has now.

That's very impressive. I'd have figured that Obama maxed out the Bay Area vote in 2008 (short of a national landslide or Huckabee-type socon). San Francisco swinging even more Democratic is pretty surprising. It looks Romney really collapsed among Asians in California, which might have had something to do with the swings there (i.e. SF, Alameda, and Santa Clara). The other counties are probably related to the Hispanic vote, but the exit polls didn't pick that up. I wonder if there's enough left in LA to push Obama above 70% there.

No.  He's not at 70% now, and LA county website's stats don't yet include write-ins.  Once included all percentages will drop. 

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timothyinMD
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« Reply #123 on: November 30, 2012, 04:14:33 PM »

Kansas has now certified its results, which is noteworthy because Romney actually did not get above 60% (final result 59.7-37.9). That gives me an extra point for my prediction. Smiley

Link?
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politicallefty
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« Reply #124 on: November 30, 2012, 05:30:45 PM »

Kansas has now certified its results, which is noteworthy because Romney actually did not get above 60% (final result 59.7-37.9). That gives me an extra point for my prediction. Smiley

Link?

Official results (PDF) from the Kansas SoS.
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