Vote counting update thread

[nclib]

CA and NY appear to be the only states with a chance of swinging to Obama (after AK, LA, MS, MD, NJ). How likely would CA and NY be?

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead.

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming...

[Lief 🗽]

Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead.

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming...

That's more a fault of national polls than Ohio polls.

[Benj]

CA and NY appear to be the only states with a chance of swinging to Obama (after AK, LA, MS, MD, NJ). How likely would CA and NY be?

NY seems likely as nearly all of the outstanding votes are in the four urban counties of NYC. California is impossible; there are only a few thousand votes left to count.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead.

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming...

That's more a fault of national polls than Ohio polls.

Meh... PPP had Obama up 5 in Ohio, and many other pollsters had him up 4. Considering Obama beat most of his polling numbers in swing States, he shouldn't be only up 3 in Ohio.

[Lief 🗽]

The RCP average was actually 2.9%, exactly the result.

[old timey villain]

The RCP average was actually 2.9%, exactly the result.

The Atlas says it's only a 2% margin

[DINGO Joe]

The RCP average was actually 2.9%, exactly the result.

The Atlas says it's only a 2% margin

Atlas just hasn't updated.  The final margin was actually 50.67-47.69

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/lv?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHpla01oWE1jOFZRbnhJZkZpVFNKeVE&f=true&noheader=true&gid=19

[Antonio the Sixth]

The RCP average was actually 2.9%, exactly the result.

RCP was pretty skewed since it didn't include PPP and other Dem-friendly polls.

According to the Atlas, the polls published in the 3 days preceding the election...

2012-11-05   Ipsos                              O +4
2012-11-04   Public Policy Polling         O +5
2012-11-04   University of Cincinnati   O +2   
2012-11-04   Survey USA                     O +5   
2012-11-04   Rasmussen                     Tie
2012-11-03   YouGov                           O +3   
2012-11-03   Zogby                             O +8   
2012-11-03   Columbus Dispatch         O +2

...averaged 3.6 and had a median of 3.5.

[Miles]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

[Tender Branson]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

Actually, Minnesota had the highest turnout: ca. 75%

WA is ranked 10th in turnout.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164873.msg3546896#msg3546896

[Benj]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

Actually, Minnesota had the highest turnout: ca. 75%

WA is ranked 10th in turnout.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164873.msg3546896#msg3546896

Might be a VAP v. Registration issue?

[Tender Branson]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

Actually, Minnesota had the highest turnout: ca. 75%

WA is ranked 10th in turnout.

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=164873.msg3546896#msg3546896

Might be a VAP v. Registration issue?

VEP vs. Registration, yes.

I'm used to calculating the VEP turnout, because this is what we use here.

[Frodo]

So where are we on this?  What are the updated figures?   

[Benj]

So where are we on this?  What are the updated figures?  

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0AjYj9mXElO_QdHpla01oWE1jOFZRbnhJZkZpVFNKeVE#gid=19

The following states have yet to certify their results:

California
Hawaii
Nebraska
New Mexico
New York
Pennsylvania
Tennessee
Virginia
West Virginia

Of those, only New York has a significant number of votes left to count, but there are a lot of outstanding votes in New York, almost all in New York City. Some of the above may be done counting but have yet to certify their results. All other states are ostensibly completely done counting unless they find a bunch of uncounted votes in a warehouse next summer, like New York did in 2009. (The basic message seems to be that, of all states, New York is most incompetent at counting ballots, and it's a good thing the state is not competitive.)

Note that Atlas numbers are not up-to-date for a fair number of states that have finished their counts recently. NJ certified just today, I believe, and it counted a ton of ballots in the past couple of days.

[Eraserhead]

Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead.

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming...

What was the final result in the Senate race?

[politicallefty]

Note that Atlas numbers are not up-to-date for a fair number of states that have finished their counts recently. NJ certified just today, I believe, and it counted a ton of ballots in the past couple of days.

NJ did certify today, meaning it had its most Democratic performance since 1964. Also, Salem County ends in a tie.

[nclib]

Looks like Obama has now won Latah, ID. Also TX and NH have now trended Romney.

Oh God, Texas never ceases to depress.

Seriously, what are Democrats waiting to start waking up their demographic potential?

AR and IA have joined TX and NH in now trending Romney. Not really surprising since the trend map would have favored Obama 366-172, still favors Obama 312-226.

The only other state to potentially join the Romney trend is CO, which is 0.09% away (MA would be after that, but would take a whole 1%).

[Benj]

Note that Atlas numbers are not up-to-date for a fair number of states that have finished their counts recently. NJ certified just today, I believe, and it counted a ton of ballots in the past couple of days.

NJ did certify today, meaning it had its most Democratic performance since 1964. Also, Salem County ends in a tie.

Really? Dave Wasserman has Obama leading by 242 votes in his county numbers, which add up to the final statewide results.

Also, his town breakdown for Middlesex County does back up the apparent massive swing to Obama among Asians. Looks like there were big swings to Obama in heavily Asian Edison and South Brunswick.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead.

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming...

What was the final result in the Senate race?

Brown 50.7%, Mandel 44.7%, Random Dude 4.6%

[politicallefty]

Note that Atlas numbers are not up-to-date for a fair number of states that have finished their counts recently. NJ certified just today, I believe, and it counted a ton of ballots in the past couple of days.

NJ did certify today, meaning it had its most Democratic performance since 1964. Also, Salem County ends in a tie.

Really? Dave Wasserman has Obama leading by 242 votes in his county numbers, which add up to the final statewide results.

He mentioned it on his Twitter account, 14,719 for each candidate. It's also listed that way in the official result tally by the state.

[Beezer]

VA and NC actually look better for Obama than they did four years ago. This time around VA's winning margin is above his national winning margin (4 years ago it was about a point below) and NC is about 5.7 points below his national average, when 4 years ago it was close to 7 points below it. Is there any place where Republicans aren't on the downslide?

[Landslide Lyndon]

Is there any place where Republicans aren't on the downslide?

The Appalachian trail.

[timothyinMD]

This is truly beyond pathetic. Not even a Fourth-World country would still be counting votes.

Well thanks to all the vote-by-mail, encouraged mostly by Democrats, it takes forever.  If 90% of voters did so on Election Day at their precinct, we'd be done

Washington's turnout was 81%; the highest in the county.

'Shame on the Democrats for encouraging that

High turnout is not a good thing if a bunch of ignorant and uninformed people are voting.  I'd rather there be just 30% turnout if the 30% are very informed and engaged on the issues.

Also, it was you guys who were bitching about the vote counting taking forever, not me.  I was telling you why, and my comment was a correct explanation

[Antonio the Sixth]

High turnout is not a good thing if a bunch of ignorant and uninformed people are voting.  I'd rather there be just 30% turnout if the 30% are very informed and engaged on the issues.

I guess you don't quite get the point of democracy...