Vote counting update thread (user search)
       |           

Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
April 27, 2024, 08:26:19 PM
News: Election Simulator 2.0 Released. Senate/Gubernatorial maps, proportional electoral votes, and more - Read more

  Talk Elections
  Presidential Elections - Analysis and Discussion
  U.S. Presidential Election Results
  2012 U.S. Presidential Election Results (Moderator: Dereich)
  Vote counting update thread (search mode)
Pages: [1] 2
Author Topic: Vote counting update thread  (Read 44101 times)
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« on: November 16, 2012, 09:24:01 PM »
Hi,

Is there any news about vote counting? CNN is stuck at the same results since wednesday, and I don't know if it's because nothing has come or because they stopped updating. All other sites have stopped too.

I think today is the day they start counting provisionals in Ohio... Do we have any idea of how they're going so far? I'm really hoping for an increase in Obama's margin there.

Also, I was wondering if there is any up-to-date estimate of how many ballots are left to count in each State, generally speaking. I just have no idea how many votes have yet to come in.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #1 on: November 16, 2012, 11:47:58 PM »
Thank you Lief, that's an awesome link! Cheesy

Assuming that the share of third-party vote doesn't change from its current level on Leip's Atlas (1.63), that means Obama is at 50.74% and Romney at 47.63%. Soo...

1) Obama got a higher percentage than Bush'04.

2) The margin is now over 3 points.

3) Romney's percentage is veeery close to dropping under 47.5%. Could Cuyahoga County's ballots push him under than line? The symbolism would be so PER-FECT.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2012, 08:00:00 PM »
Still no news about Ohio? Angry
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #3 on: November 19, 2012, 04:36:32 PM »
America is definitely a Banana Republic when it comes to counting votes...

I still find it hilarious how the final results in Brazil were known by election night.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #4 on: November 19, 2012, 07:29:38 PM »

There's still been no update on Wasserman's spreadsheet...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #5 on: November 19, 2012, 07:31:19 PM »
« Edited: November 19, 2012, 07:36:04 PM by Californian Tony »
Anyways, Romney's about to overtake McCain (59933K to 59948K) and the raw margin is about to reach 4 million votes. Smiley

Oh, and Obama has a higher % than Dubya. Cheesy
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #6 on: November 19, 2012, 11:43:23 PM »
Ohio still hasn't reported anything new, as far as I see...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #7 on: November 20, 2012, 05:59:16 PM »
Quote from: Californian Tony on November 19, 2012, 11:43:23 PM
Ohio still hasn't reported anything new, as far as I see...

...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #8 on: November 21, 2012, 12:07:43 AM »

Any news of uncounted ballots there? The total vote tallied so far is 6% less than the 2008 vote.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #9 on: November 21, 2012, 01:26:42 AM »
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 21, 2012, 01:14:21 AM
Quote from: Tender Branson on November 21, 2012, 12:54:43 AM
Folks, just lean back and chill for the next 3 weeks until all the states have certified their results by Mid-December and we'll know the real numbers.

(Well maybe not until next year, if states like New York find thousands of uncounted ballots in warehouses and include them into the final total by summer of next year, like it happened in 2008 ... Tongue)

Link:

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=93787.0

EPIC FAIL
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #10 on: November 21, 2012, 01:44:39 AM »
Thank you Tender, very useful info. So, nearly half States won't certify before December? That's so pathetic. Angry

Anyways, you know, we political junkies like to stay tuned on every single development. So even if the final results will come in late, following the day-to-day updates is still interesting. Wink
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #11 on: November 21, 2012, 11:34:07 PM »
If only we had an idea how many votes are left to count...

We need around 5 million more to beat 2008's total vote. But considering population growth, we'd need the total vote to grow by 3% or something in order for turnout to hold steady. That would require around 4 million more votes.

What do you guys think? Is it possible that 9 million ballots are still uncounted?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #12 on: November 24, 2012, 10:37:06 PM »
Quote from: Fillon, laisse pas béton ! on November 24, 2012, 07:05:43 PM
Hi Andy. I took the time to compare the vote totals between yours and Wasserman's results, and it looks like you both miss some votes.



Red States are those where Wasserman has more votes counted, the blue ones are those where you do. The lightest shade indicate a difference of less than 1000, the intermediate one of between 1000 and 10000 and the darkest one over 10000. Overall, Wasserman misses 105,824 votes, of which 61,019 are from California and 27,485 from Pennsylvania. You miss 161,148 votes, mainly from MS, OH and TX.

If you could update your spreadsheet with Wasserman's data in these States, it would be great. Smiley
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #13 on: November 25, 2012, 12:02:13 AM »
Quote from: Senator Snowstalker on November 24, 2012, 11:50:50 PM
So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

Slightly worse I think, around 4.9%.

Pretty depressing... hopefully the last ballots to come will push Obama up.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #14 on: November 25, 2012, 12:39:11 AM »
He almost hasn't made any update since Wednesday.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #15 on: November 25, 2012, 01:03:17 AM »

But California has, and he hasn't been keeping track of it.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #16 on: November 25, 2012, 02:57:06 PM »
I hope Obama ends up over 3% in Ohio. That would be a huge disappointment otherwise.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #17 on: November 27, 2012, 03:19:38 AM »
California is really a huge surprise.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #18 on: November 27, 2012, 07:31:11 PM »
Quote from: nclib on November 27, 2012, 11:00:41 AM
Looks like Obama has now won Latah, ID. Also TX and NH have now trended Romney.

Oh God, Texas never ceases to depress.

Seriously, what are Democrats waiting to start waking up their demographic potential?
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #19 on: November 28, 2012, 03:47:21 PM »
Quote from: Lief on November 28, 2012, 01:55:18 AM
After counting provisionals in Ohio today, Obama's lead has jumped from about 2% to 2.72%! And Columbus provisionals are apparently still not counted.

Obama is also up to 50.88% nationally, leading Romney by 3.48%.

Hopefully we can climb to at least 3.5 points.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #20 on: November 28, 2012, 07:50:08 PM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on November 28, 2012, 05:47:21 PM
Quote from: Fillon, laisse pas béton ! on November 28, 2012, 03:47:21 PM
Quote from: Lief on November 28, 2012, 01:55:18 AM
After counting provisionals in Ohio today, Obama's lead has jumped from about 2% to 2.72%! And Columbus provisionals are apparently still not counted.

Obama is also up to 50.88% nationally, leading Romney by 3.48%.

Hopefully we can climb to at least 3.5 points.

That's a given.

I was talking about Ohio. Wink
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #21 on: November 30, 2012, 11:39:37 PM »
Crap! For some reason Nate thought Romney would break 60% in KS but not in NE...
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #22 on: December 04, 2012, 04:04:24 AM »
Quote from: Eraserhead on December 04, 2012, 03:21:23 AM
So I'm guessing there aren't enough votes left for Obama to hit or pass 51.00% outright?

That and whether NY will swing to Obama (vs. 2008) are the two major things I'm still wondering about.

I'm still interested in the remaining Ohio votes. Obama now leads Romney by 2.95, I hope we can increase it to at least 3.5.
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #23 on: December 06, 2012, 09:36:42 PM »
« Edited: December 06, 2012, 09:41:17 PM by Fillon, laisse pas béton ! »
Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead. Sad

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming... Cry
Logged
Antonio the Sixth
Antonio V
Atlas Institution
*****
Posts: 58,173
United States


Political Matrix
E: -7.87, S: -3.83

P P
« Reply #24 on: December 06, 2012, 11:06:19 PM »
Quote from: Lief on December 06, 2012, 10:13:36 PM
Quote from: Fillon, laisse pas béton ! on December 06, 2012, 09:36:42 PM
Ohio is such a disappointment... It was predicted to be 1 to 2 points more democratic than the nation as a whole, and will end 0.6-0.8 points more rep instead. Sad

Even Sherrod Brown's result was underwhelming... Cry

That's more a fault of national polls than Ohio polls.

Meh... PPP had Obama up 5 in Ohio, and many other pollsters had him up 4. Considering Obama beat most of his polling numbers in swing States, he shouldn't be only up 3 in Ohio.
Logged
Pages: [1] 2  
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

Page created in 0.071 seconds with 15 queries.