Vote counting update thread

[politicallefty]

I'm not sure how many ballots remain uncounted, but I doubt total turnout will hit the 2008 number. There probably aren't 4 million, let alone 9 million.

Also, Obama is now at 59.8% in California.

[politicallefty]

New vote dump in some California counties. Notably, Santa Clara County (San Jose) has now cleared 70% for Obama, while Stanislaus County (Modesto) has cleared 50%. Additionally, Stanislaus, San Joaquin (Stockton) and Merced Counties have now swung to Obama--that's a sign of really dramatic change in that part of California. Los Angeles County and Kern County (Bakersfield) have now also swung to Obama. Not sure if San Francisco County had swung towards Obama before, but it has now.

That's very impressive. I'd have figured that Obama maxed out the Bay Area vote in 2008 (short of a national landslide or Huckabee-type socon). San Francisco swinging even more Democratic is pretty surprising. It looks Romney really collapsed among Asians in California, which might have had something to do with the swings there (i.e. SF, Alameda, and Santa Clara). The other counties are probably related to the Hispanic vote, but the exit polls didn't pick that up. I wonder if there's enough left in LA to push Obama above 70% there.

[politicallefty]

Kansas has now certified its results, which is noteworthy because Romney actually did not get above 60% (final result 59.7-37.9). That gives me an extra point for my prediction.

[politicallefty]

Kansas has now certified its results, which is noteworthy because Romney actually did not get above 60% (final result 59.7-37.9). That gives me an extra point for my prediction.

Link?

Official results (PDF) from the Kansas SoS.

[politicallefty]

So I'm guessing there aren't enough votes left for Obama to hit or pass 51.00% outright?

That and whether NY will swing to Obama (vs. 2008) are the two major things I'm still wondering about.

From what I've read, it looks like he will get to 51%. There are supposedly nearly 1 million ballots left in NY, apparently mostly in NYC.

[politicallefty]

Yeah, Rhode Island is done. So far, 33 states have certified.

[politicallefty]

I don't think you have the latest numbers in Ohio. The latest numbers have Obama up by just under 165,000 (which is a 2.95% margin). Based on what's left, 3.5% won't happen, but 3% could since heavily Democratic Mahoning County has yet to certify its result.

[politicallefty]

Note that Atlas numbers are not up-to-date for a fair number of states that have finished their counts recently. NJ certified just today, I believe, and it counted a ton of ballots in the past couple of days.

NJ did certify today, meaning it had its most Democratic performance since 1964. Also, Salem County ends in a tie.

[politicallefty]

Note that Atlas numbers are not up-to-date for a fair number of states that have finished their counts recently. NJ certified just today, I believe, and it counted a ton of ballots in the past couple of days.

NJ did certify today, meaning it had its most Democratic performance since 1964. Also, Salem County ends in a tie.

Really? Dave Wasserman has Obama leading by 242 votes in his county numbers, which add up to the final statewide results.

He mentioned it on his Twitter account, 14,719 for each candidate. It's also listed that way in the official result tally by the state.

[politicallefty]

Romney falls to 59.8% in Nebraska at certification. That gives me another point in my prediction.

[politicallefty]

Romney falls to 59.8% in Nebraska at certification. That gives me another point in my prediction.

Where did you get those numbers from ?

That's according to Wasserman. I don't know where he got it, but I trust his numbers.

Apparently, NYC will be reporting some updated numbers today.

[politicallefty]

That also makes Manhattan the only one of the five boroughs to swing towards Romney. With that aside, Obama really had a quite impressive margin in NYC (over 91% in the Bronx, winning Staten Island, and pushing Romney below 20% in four of five boroughs).