Vote counting update thread

[AndyAJS]

I'm keeping an up-to-date tally of the latest voting returns on this spreadsheet:

ht tps://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFp2dUlkNWlJeGN5NFUxa0F3cXpoLXc#gid=0

(I'm also updating Wikipedia with the latest data).

Unfortunately most of the networks have stopped updating their data.

I'm using the official state election websites for most of the data, which I link to on the right-hand side of the spreadsheet.

[AndyAJS]

Obama's vote in Missouri just fell by 60,000 while Romney's vote remained the same.

I think someone has been pressing the wrong buttons: [see official Missouri elections result page. I can't link to it].

Obama was previously on 1,215,418. Now he's on 1,155,736.

[AndyAJS]

Obama's vote in Missouri just fell by 60,000 while Romney's vote remained the same.

I think someone has been pressing the wrong buttons: [see official Missouri elections result page. I can't link to it].

Obama was previously on 1,215,418. Now he's on 1,155,736.

They somehow botched Jackson County results

Obama had 78000+ votes in Jackson not 18000+

Thanks for pointing that out - although that doesn't quite add up either because Obama went down by about 60,000 and the error in Jackson County was about 100,000. ..

[AndyAJS]

I've just put together a spreadsheet featuring the latest results from Illinois with links to the county websites. Unfortunately I can't link to it because I haven't made 20 posts.

The spreadsheet is giving the following result for Illinois:

Obama: 3,007,392 (57.48%)
Romney: 2,131,304 (40.73%)
Johnson: 55,990 (1.07%)
Stein: 32,331 (0.62%)
Goode: 101 (0.00%)
Anderson: 13 (0.00%)
Others: 5,179 (0.10%)

Total: 5,232,310

Edit: I've put the link in my signature below.

[AndyAJS]

New spreadsheets with the latest county data for CA, NJ and UT are linked to from my national totals spreadsheet (see the link in my signature).

My CA figures are currently slightly ahead of David Wasserman's.

[AndyAJS]

About 60,000 new votes have just been reported in Los Angeles County which takes Romney below 47.5% according to my figures, and I think according to Dave Wasserman's figures as well - once he updates them.

[AndyAJS]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

You can compare the current vote totals with the 2008 totals on the spreadsheet below in my signature.

Other information: just noticed that Romney won Pike County, Ohio by one vote.

[AndyAJS]

So is Obama doing better or worse in PA than what Wasserman has him at (leading by 5.02%)?

Slightly worse I think, around 4.9%.

Pretty depressing... hopefully the last ballots to come will push Obama up.

Are they from Philly?

Wasserman's PA figures are slightly out-of-date compared to mine which I compiled more recently by going through the county websites a couple of days ago. They're the figures being used on Wikipedia:

Obama 2,937,135 (51.77%)
Romney 2,654,895 (46.77%)

Obama lead: 282,240 (4.97%)

I've just finished compiling a spreadsheet with the latest Ohio data from county websites:

Obama 2,707,566 (50.06%)
Romney 2,603,722 (48.14%)

Obama lead: 103,744 (1.92%)

This new data means Romney is now on 47.48% nationally.
That figure will appear on Wikipedia shortly.

I'm surprised Wasserman hasn't updated his CA figures yet. New votes came in from LA more than 24 hours ago now.

[AndyAJS]

Is California >60% Obama yet? It looks like it won't swing Democratic (Romney did well enough in rural NorCal and made some gains with rich white people), but it's clearly had a D trend this time around.

The latest vote dump from LA County took Obama to 59.8%

Where are the outstanding votes from?

I guess there are roughly 500,000 votes left to count with a little over 150,000 in LA and 57,000 in San Diego, 27,000 in Sacramento.  Believe it or not there are a few counties that haven't provided any updates since election night and I guess won't until they're certified.  Most of those counties are democratic counties though they aren't huge population centers.

Absolutely. New York hasn't updated its figures since election night.

Current figures:
Obama 3,875,826; Romney 2,226,637; Total 6,186,881

2008 figures:
Obama 4,804,701; McCain 2,752,728; Total 7,640,640

I don't think turnout will drop by more than a million votes which means a minimum of 450,000 votes still to come and as you say the vast majority of them will be for the Democrats.

[AndyAJS]

As for Ohio, it seems that the counties provide update after each county Board of Election certifies the results.  About 20 counties have completed the process, mostly smaller and most Republican counties.  Most of the big counties with the most votes left are slated to meet either Mon or Tue, so by Wed it'll be known.  The counties that have provide final results have only been accepting about 2/3rds of the ballots outstanding so overall that means closer to 200000 votes to be added overall vs the 300000 ballots outstanding.   Of the votes added Obama is running roughly 10% or more ahead of what election night results were.  For example the largest county to report thus far is Butler county which Romney won with about 62% of the votes, Obama won 3100 to 2950 in the votes added in the final results.

I'd guess that the margin of victory for Obama will increase to above 150,000 votes and will be close the 3%

What do you think will happen to Obama's lead in Pennsylvania as the last votes are counted?

It will be interesting if the gap between Obama's lead in PA and OH is pretty small, such as less than 2% for example.

[AndyAJS]

(Sorry if this is in the wrong thread):

Some PA details:

Counties won (using latest data):
Romney 55
Obama 13

Counties won by less than 5% (using latest data):

Obama (4):
Centre: 0.25%
Bucks: 1.16%
Northampton: 4.73%
Luzerne: 4.78%

Romney (3):
Chester: 0.40%
Berks: 0.99%
Mercer: 3.32%

[AndyAJS]

There are 958,311 unprocessed ballots in California according to the official website. Obama is currently on 7,525,158 in CA compared to 8,274,473 in 2008. He might not quite reach the same number of votes this time but I think he could get pretty close.

[AndyAJS]

My latest figures (calculated independently of Dave Wasserman):

Obama: 65,063,930 (50.89%)
Romney: 60,553,697 (47.37%)

Obama lead: 4,510,233 (3.53%)

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFp2dUlkNWlJeGN5NFUxa0F3cXpoLXc#gid=0

Pennsylvania, Obama lead: 5.39%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dDNrd2toVlVBbHhGdU1DNGVxZEpFOGc#gid=0


Ohio, Obama lead: 2.94%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFlPcEExVkl6czQ3S2FRRHF0V0lYeVE#gid=0

[AndyAJS]

Interesting to note that Obama leads by 4,682,797 overall, in CA by 3,014,312 and NY by 1,700,644. So Romney leads by 32,159 in the rest of US outside those two states.

[AndyAJS]

Dave has no write-in votes in the totals for Washington state, WV and Missouri.
Ohio, Utah and PA write in totals are incomplete.  Some counties don't have them listed yet.

Some California counties' vote totals declined slightly from what I had off the county clerks' websites, perhaps indicating that some write in ballots were dropped from the count before certification

I've included write-in votes on my spreadsheet if you're interested in taking a look at that. The link is in my signature.

Dave Wasserman says Hawaii hasn't certified because there are still disputes about some of the minor races which is holding up the entire process.

I'd like to know: why hasn't New York finished counting? They should have done so before the electoral college met on December 17th. Don't they believe in due process any more?

There's a big problem with vote counting in the USA in my opinion. In most countries it's recognised that you have to count all the votes within a few days, even if it doesn't affect the result. But the attitude in a lot of American states seems to be: "We know who the winner is, so what's the point in finishing counting all the votes?" That's the type of attitude you'd expert in a third-world country rather than the world's number one superpower.

New York still has 413,000 votes to count according to Wasserman and yet the New York electors have already cast their ballots. That isn't a good example of democracy in action.

[AndyAJS]

New York have bizarrely decided to start counting again on Christmas Day:

https://twitter.com/redistrict

[AndyAJS]

What other state besides New York hasn't yet certified their votes?  I was looking on that link, and it said that West Virginia is the 48th state to certify its votes.  What's the other state? 

Dave Wasserman thinks that Hawaii haven't certified their results yet.

[AndyAJS]

New York City has reported a lot of new votes:

Obama: 270,900
Romney: 51,431

Bronx: Obama 44,961; Romney 2,906
Brooklyn: Obama 83,261; Romney 14,152
Manhattan: Obama 66,579; Romney 12,044
Queens: Obama 65,545; Romney 14,705
Staten Island: Obama 10,554; Romney 7,624

https://twitter.com/redistrict

Obama's national lead has increased from 3.69% to 3.85%

https://docs.google.com/spreadsheet/ccc?key=0At91c3wX1Wu5dFp2dUlkNWlJeGN5NFUxa0F3cXpoLXc#gid=0

[AndyAJS]

New York has finally certified according to Dave Wasserman.

Only Hawaii still to certify although there probably won't be any new votes from there which means the final result is Obama 51.06%, Romney 47.21%:

www.twitter.com/redistrict