State Level Control 2018/2019

[Zaybay]

Just as the topic states. What do you think state level control will be like after the 2018 and 2019 elections?

Not just the governor's mansion, but the legislature as well.

Leave your thoughts and maps below.

[KingSweden]

Alabama, Arkansas and Alaska: R Trifectas
CA, CO, DE: D Trifectas
FL: D Gov, R Legislature
GA: R Trifecta
HI: D Trifecta
IA: D Gov, R Leg
IL: D Trifecta
ID: R Trifecta
KS: R Trifecta
KY: D Gov, R Leg
NH: R Gov, Split Leg
ME, CT, RI, NY: D Trifecta
MD, MA, VT: R Gov, D Leg
AZ: D Gov, Split Leg
WA, OR: D Trifecta
MT: D Gov, R Leg
Dakota’s: R Trifecta
MN: D Gov, Split Leg
WI: D Gov, Split Leg
MI, OH: D Gov, R Leg
PA: D Hov, Split Leg
NY: D Trifecta
OK, TX: R Trifecta
MS, NC, LA: D Gov, R Leg
AL, IN, TN: R Trifecta
VA: D Trifecta

[Frodo]

Alabama, Arkansas and Alaska: R Trifectas
CA, CO, DE: D Trifectas
FL: D Gov, R Legislature
GA: R Trifecta
HI: D Trifecta
IA: D Gov, R Leg
IL: D Trifecta
ID: R Trifecta
KS: R Trifecta
KY: D Gov, R Leg
NH: R Gov, Split Leg
ME, CT, RI, NY: D Trifecta
MD, MA, VT: R Gov, D Leg
AZ: D Gov, Split Leg
WA, OR: D Trifecta
MT: D Gov, R Leg
Dakota’s: R Trifecta
MN: D Gov, Split Leg
WI: D Gov, Split Leg
MI, OH: D Gov, R Leg
PA: D Hov, Split Leg
NY: D Trifecta
OK, TX: R Trifecta
MS, NC, LA: D Gov, R Leg
AL, IN, TN: R Trifecta
VA: D Trifecta

Agree with all except Georgia.  I think there are grounds for optimism that Stacey Abrams can become the first black female governor of a Deep South state, and maybe even a future 2024 presidential contender if she wins re-election (and if we don't win back the White House in 2020).  

[KingSweden]

Alabama, Arkansas and Alaska: R Trifectas
CA, CO, DE: D Trifectas
FL: D Gov, R Legislature
GA: R Trifecta
HI: D Trifecta
IA: D Gov, R Leg
IL: D Trifecta
ID: R Trifecta
KS: R Trifecta
KY: D Gov, R Leg
NH: R Gov, Split Leg
ME, CT, RI, NY: D Trifecta
MD, MA, VT: R Gov, D Leg
AZ: D Gov, Split Leg
WA, OR: D Trifecta
MT: D Gov, R Leg
Dakota’s: R Trifecta
MN: D Gov, Split Leg
WI: D Gov, Split Leg
MI, OH: D Gov, R Leg
PA: D Hov, Split Leg
NY: D Trifecta
OK, TX: R Trifecta
MS, NC, LA: D Gov, R Leg
AL, IN, TN: R Trifecta
VA: D Trifecta

Agree with all except Georgia.  I think there are grounds for optimism that Stacey Abrams can become the first black female governor of a Deep South state, and maybe even a future 2024 presidential contender if she wins re-election (and if we don't win back the White House in 2020).  

I agree there’s a good chance, but with the inelastic lean of the state and the 50+1 for now I’m not going to predict an eventual victory for an otherwise very impressive candidate

[smoltchanov]

Alabama, Arkansas and Alaska: R Trifectas
CA, CO, DE: D Trifectas
FL: D Gov, R Legislature
GA: R Trifecta
HI: D Trifecta
IA: D Gov, R Leg
IL: D Trifecta
ID: R Trifecta
KS: R Trifecta
KY: D Gov, R Leg
NH: R Gov, Split Leg
ME, CT, RI, NY: D Trifecta
MD, MA, VT: R Gov, D Leg
AZ: D Gov, Split Leg
WA, OR: D Trifecta
MT: D Gov, R Leg
Dakota’s: R Trifecta
MN: D Gov, Split Leg
WI: D Gov, Split Leg
MI, OH: D Gov, R Leg
PA: D Hov, Split Leg
NY: D Trifecta
OK, TX: R Trifecta
MS, NC, LA: D Gov, R Leg
AL, IN, TN: R Trifecta
VA: D Trifecta

Mine are  slightly less bullish. Not sure about "Democratic governor victories" in Florida, Iowa, Kentucky, Connecticut, Wisconsin, Arizona, Mississippi and Louisiana (all these states are close to tossup for me). BTW - you mentioned AL and NY twice. Otherwise - close to my own estimates.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

Mills is definately unpopular and Moody can win that race

[Virginiá]

Mills is definately unpopular and Moody can win that race

What did Mills do (or not do)?

[Zaybay]

Mills is definately unpopular and Moody can win that race

What did Mills do (or not do)?

I live partially in Maine, so Ill answer this. She is generally seen by many as a part of the Portland coast, your elitist Democrat, if I may use the phrase. She is also a boring moderate who doesnt really have a flare to them as Sweet did. Cote had a business background going for him, but Mills is much closer to a career politician. Her opponent, Moody, is charismatic, young, and a business owner. While the Republicans are having a hard time in the state after Lepage, he can still pull a victory. But, after everything Ive seen, the state will probably vote Mills by a weak margin.

[GoldenMainer]

I live partially in Maine, so Ill answer this. She is generally seen by many as a part of the Portland coast, your elitist Democrat, if I may use the phrase. She is also a boring moderate who doesnt really have a flare to them as Sweet did. Cote had a business background going for him, but Mills is much closer to a career politician. Her opponent, Moody, is charismatic, young, and a business owner. While the Republicans are having a hard time in the state after Lepage, he can still pull a victory. But, after everything Ive seen, the state will probably vote Mills by a weak margin.

Mills is actually from Farmington which is inland in the second district. She destroyed Cote in inland and northern areas which tend to be less elitist/wealthy. Cote actually won in Cumberland County (Portland and surrounding wealthy areas). She's more moderate than I am but she's tough, experienced, knows her crap, and can get things done (as Attorney General, she secured $35 million in a tobacco industry settlement and wants to use that to fund Medicaid expansion).

Also, Moody is going to be 59 in the fall. Younger than Mills but not what I'd consider a young buck or anything.

[The Undefeatable Debbie Stabenow]

Probably/certainly a Democratic trifecta: CA, CO, CT, DE, HI, IL, ME, NJ, NM, NV, NY, OR, RI, VA, WA
Potentially a Democratic trifecta: MD, MN

Probably/certainly a Republican trifecta: AL, AR, ID, IN, KY, MO, MS, ND, NE, OK, SC, SD, TN, TX, UT, WV, WY
Potentially a Republican trifecta: AK, AZ, FL, GA, IA, KS, LA, MI, NH, WI

[KingSweden]

This is my prediction for state level control after 2018/2019


The key is as follows:
Solid- The total control of a state by 1 party, governorship and both chambers
Likely-The control of the governorship and one chamber
Lean-The control of the governorship but no chambers

Bullish without being hackish. I will say I’m still skeptical on GA, though.

[Wisconsin SC Race 2019]

The delusion. Walker and DeWine are running away with the Gov races...and legislatures aren't flipping in a D+6. Safe GOP trifectas for both states.

[Bojack Horseman]

The delusion. Walker and DeWine are running away with the Gov races...and legislatures aren't flipping in a D+6. Safe GOP trifectas for both states.

You can’t be serious

[BBD]

The delusion. Walker and DeWine are running away with the Gov races...and legislatures aren't flipping in a D+6. Safe GOP trifectas for both states.

Speak for yourself.

[Kyle Rittenhouse is a Political Prisoner]

The delusion. Walker and DeWine are running away with the Gov races...and legislatures aren't flipping in a D+6. Safe GOP trifectas for both states.

Speak for yourself.

[fridgeking]

The delusion. Walker and DeWine are running away with the Gov races...and legislatures aren't flipping in a D+6. Safe GOP trifectas for both states.

Speak for yourself.

[Nyvin]

The delusion. Walker and DeWine are running away with the Gov races...and legislatures aren't flipping in a D+6. Safe GOP trifectas for both states.

Based on what?

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

AL R Trifecta R Redistricting 7
AK.R Trifecta* no redistricting
AZ R Trifecta R Redistricting 9
AR  R Trifecta R Redistricting 4
CA D Trifecta D redistricting 54
CO D Trifecta D redistricting 7
CT D Trifecta D redistricting 5
Del D Trifecta* no redistricting
FL R Trifecta R Redistricting 27
GA R Trifecta R Redistricting 13
HI D Trifecta D redistricting 2
ID R Trifecta R Redistricting 2
IL D Trifecta D redistricting 17
IN R Trifecta R Redistricting 8
Iowa R Trifecta R Redistricting 4
KS R Trifecta R Redistricting 4
KY R Trifecta R Redistricting 6
La R Trifecta R Redistricting 6
ME D Gov split stL D redistricting 2
MD D Trifecta D redistricting 8
MA R Gov D stL D Redistricting 9
MI D Gov R stL D Redistricting 13
MN D Trifecta D redistricting 8
MS R Trifecta R Redistricting 4
Mo R Trifecta R Redistricting 9
MT R Trifecta* no redistricting
Neb R Trifecta R Redistricting 3
NV R gov D stL D Redistricting 5
NH R gov D stL D Redistricting 2
NJ D Trifecta D redistricting 12
NM D Trifecta D redistricting 3
NY D Trifecta D redistricting 26
NC D Gov R stL D Redistricting 12
ND R Trifecta* no redistricting
OH R Trifecta R Redistricting 14
OK R Trifecta R Redistricting 5
OR D Trifecta D redistricting 5
PA D Gov R stL.D Redistricting 17
RI D Trifecta D redistricting 2
SC R Trifecta R Redistricting 6
SD R Trifecta* no redistricting
TN R Trifecta R Redistricting 9
TX R Trifecta R Redistricting 39
UT R Trifecta R Redistricting 3
VT R Gov stL* no redistricting
Va D Trifecta D redistricting 11
WA D Trifecta D Redistricting 9
WV R Trifecta R Redistricting 3
WI Dgov Split stL D redistricting 8
Wy Trifecta* no redistricting

[Politician]

90% represents a trifecta, while 30% represents two out of three of governorship, Senate and House. Including 2019.

[MAINEiac4434]

Mills is definately unpopular and Moody can win that race

What did Mills do (or not do)?

She's a staid, boring, out-of-touch politician who doesn't excite progressives.

OC is right in that Moody can win the race. I think it's Lean D at the moment though.