Wisconsin Megathread
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Gass3268
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« Reply #25 on: February 12, 2013, 02:41:50 AM »
« edited: March 23, 2013, 02:41:12 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 6

Counties: Milwaukee
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee
PVI: D+33.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 77,993 (89.16%)/ Romney 9.336 (10.67%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 72.586 (87.26%)/ McCain 9,959 (11.97%)
Swing: 3.2% Democratic
Trend: 10.17% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+34.5/D+36

Senators: Nikiya Harris

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee  
Birthday: 2/22/1975
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Former nonprofit fundraising professional
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the second of the two African American majority districts. African Americans make up 60.5 % of this district. The western part of Downtown Milwaukee and Marquette University are in this district.  

Assembly District 16

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+36
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 25,647 (91.73%)/ Romney 2,548 (9.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 24,028 (88.97%)/ McCain 2,750 (10.18%)
Swing: 3.83% Democratic  
Trend: 10.8% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+37/D+35.5

Representative: Leon Young

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1993
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 7/4/1967
Place of Birth: Los Angeles, California
Profession:  Police Officer
Religion: N/A

Notes:  This district is 58.2% African American. The western part of Downtown Milwaukee is in this district which includes Marquette University and the Bradley Center.

Assembly District 17

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+30.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 27,549 (85.93%)/ Romney 4,329 (13.5%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 25,324 (83.8%)/ McCain 4,329 (15.39%)
Swing: 4.02% Democratic
Trend: 10.99% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+37.5

Representative: La Tonya Johnson

Party: Democrat
Last Election: La Tonya Johnson 20,288 (84.7%)/ Anthony Edwards (14.9%)
Obama Comparison: +1.2%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Tennessee State  
Birthday: 6/22/1972
Place of Birth: La Grange, TN
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is 60.4% African American. Not much else to say about this district.

Assembly District 18

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+35.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,797 (90.31%)/ Romney 2,459 (8.96%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 23,757 (89.64%)/ McCain 2,575 (9.72%)
Swing: 1.43% Democratic
Trend: 8.4% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+37/D+35

Representative: Evan Goyke

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Evan Goyke 16,276 (87.9%)/ Melba Morris-Page (11.6%)
Obama Comparison: +2.38%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: St. John’s University (Bachelors)/ Marquette Univeristy(J.D.)
Birthday: 11/24/1982
Place of Birth: Neenah, WI
Profession: Assistant Public Defender
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is 63.2% African American. Another example of a white representative in a African American district. The Miller Brewery Factory is in this district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #26 on: February 13, 2013, 12:36:19 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:42:09 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 7

Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, Oak Creek and South Milwaukee
PVI: D+5.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 57,658 (59.23%)/ Romney 38,104 (39.14%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 59,905 (61.23%)/ McCain 36,236 (37.04%)
Swing: 4.1% Republican
Trend: 2.87 Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+6.5/D+8

Representative: Chris Larson

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Chris Larson 37,165 (57.11%)/ Jess Ripp 27,772 (42.68%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee, WI
Prior Offices: Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 11/12/1980
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Sporting Goods Manager
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the white lakeshore Milwaukee district and it didn’t radically change much in redistricting. The Oak Creek is a conservative suburb but the other three suburbs in the district (Cudahy, South Milwaukee and St. Francis) are more Democratic normally but did go to the Republicans in 2010. Even with those conservative areas, the district is too Democratic for a Republican to ever win.

Assembly District 19

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+16.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,671 (69.66%)/ Romney 9,981 (28.18%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 26,494 (72.49%)/ McCain 9,315 (25.49%)
Swing: 5.52% Republican
Trend: 1.45 Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+20/D+18

Representative: Jon Richards

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: Lawrence University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (J.D.)
Birthday: 9/5/1963
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: Teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the Milwaukee lakeshore district. It also includes the eastern part of Downtown, the University of Wisconsin-Milaukee and the famous Summerfest Grounds.  

Assembly District 20

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,437 (58.4%)/ Romney 12,670 (40.13%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,510 (58.25%)/ McCain 12,706 (39.98%)
Swing: 0.1% Republican
Trend: 6.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+4.5/D+2.5

Representative: Christine Sinicki

Party: Democrat
Last Election:  Christine Sinicki 16,995 (57.5%)/ Molly McGartand 12,500 (42.3%)
OBama Comparison: +0.88%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 3/28/1960
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Small Business Manager
Religion: A/A

Notes: This district includes General Mitchell International Airport and two of the Southeast Milwaukee County suburbs of Cudahy and St. Francis. As long as Rep. Sinicki represents this district it will be safe for the Democrats, but it could be competitive in an open election.

Assembly District 21

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,550 (47.92%)/ Romney 15,453 (50.9%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,901 (50.48%)/ McCain 14,215 (48.16%)
Swing: 5.3% Republican
Trend: 1.67% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+5

Representative: Mark Hondel

Party: Republican
Last Election: Mark Hondel 17,403 (59.3%)/ William Kurtz 11,921(40.6%)
Obama Comparison: +7.31%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: South Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Milwaukee Area Technical College
Birthday: 3/29/1956
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Industrial Manager
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is predominately an Oak Creek district along with South Milwaukee. Barring an open seat in a big Democratic year this is a safe Republican Seat.
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Dave from Michigan
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« Reply #27 on: February 13, 2013, 01:02:17 AM »

interesting thread. It's weird to me how each senate seat is divided into 3 house seats. In Michigan there all separate, there are 38 senate seats and 110 house seats. I think I prefer the Michigan way though. I might do something like this for Michigan for the 2014 elections. In Michigan all the State Senate is up every 4 years with the governor in midterm years (2010,2014). the state house is up every two years. So the state senate was elected under the 2000 redistricting and 2014 will be all new seats (but gerrymandered by the Republicans). The state house was up under new seats in 2012.
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Linus Van Pelt
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« Reply #28 on: February 13, 2013, 08:14:13 PM »

Actually the African-American population of Milwaukee is growing. It was 37% in 2000 and 40% in 2010 (and the city as a whole grew slightly during that period so it's not a case of a smaller gross loss being a proportional increase).

My impression is that there is migration of African-Americans away from Chicago towards smaller cities in the region in general, so most cities within a few hours of Chicago have a growing Black population despite the general trend away from the Rust Belt towards the south.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #29 on: February 14, 2013, 08:29:56 AM »

I would certainly imagine those northwestern inner suburbs within the city to be getting Blacker still.
Beautiful thread; we need more like them.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #30 on: February 15, 2013, 11:47:18 PM »

interesting thread. It's weird to me how each senate seat is divided into 3 house seats. In Michigan there all separate, there are 38 senate seats and 110 house seats. I think I prefer the Michigan way though. I might do something like this for Michigan for the 2014 elections. In Michigan all the State Senate is up every 4 years with the governor in midterm years (2010,2014). the state house is up every two years. So the state senate was elected under the 2000 redistricting and 2014 will be all new seats (but gerrymandered by the Republicans). The state house was up under new seats in 2012.

Interesting, I don't think I would like the Michigan system because I like the fact that there is constancy in who everyone in your Assembly district is voting for. It allows things to be less confusing to have the lower house districts in the upper house districts. Know I would say that I would prefer to have the Minnesota system of only having 2 House seats per Senate district, but to have more Senate Districts. Minnesota has 67 Senate seats and then 134 House seats, while Wisconsin has 33 Senate seats and 99 Assembly seats. Minnesota and Wisconsin have very similar populations, but Minnesotans get better representation in both the Senate and the Lower House.

Actually the African-American population of Milwaukee is growing. It was 37% in 2000 and 40% in 2010 (and the city as a whole grew slightly during that period so it's not a case of a smaller gross loss being a proportional increase).

My impression is that there is migration of African-Americans away from Chicago towards smaller cities in the region in general, so most cities within a few hours of Chicago have a growing Black population despite the general trend away from the Rust Belt towards the south.

Thanks for giving me the heads up on that. I just assumed that because all of the old African American districts had less then the necessary population before redistricting, that meant that they where going elsewhere. Should be interesting to see what happens if their % of the city continues to grow as the Hispanic population continues to grow as well.

I would certainly imagine those northwestern inner suburbs within the city to be getting Blacker still.
Beautiful thread; we need more like them.

We'll have to see, the only suburb in the county that has a substantial African American population is Brown Deer. Many of those other suburbs in that area have extremely high property values, so it could be difficult of the African American population to take off there. Also thanks for the compliment on the thread! Smiley
 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #31 on: February 23, 2013, 03:59:40 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2013, 06:18:34 PM by Mideast Minority Leader Gass3268 »

Senate District 8

Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha  
Three Largest Entities: Menomonee Falls, Mequon and Germantown
PVI: 12.5%
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,832 (40.83%)/ Romney 60,861 (59.40%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,856 (43.37%)/ McCain 59,895 (55.44%)
Swing: 6.5% Republican
Trend: 0.44% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11.5/R+3.5

Senator: Alberta Darling

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1993
Hometown: River Hills
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 4/28/1944
Place of Birth: Hammond, IN
Profession: Teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is another one of the Milwaukee area districts that went from being potentially competitive to totally out of reach for Democrats. In the prior map, this district included more of the northern reaches of the City of Milwaukee and almost all of the Northeast suburbs. This new district pulled farther out of Milwaukee County and more into the hardcore Republican suburbs. This is the seat that took forever to call in the first set of recalls because of Waukesha County's Kathy Nickolaus.    

Assembly District 22

Counties: Milwaukee, Washington and Waukesha
PVI: R+18.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,682 (34.76%)/ Romney 23,670 (64.88%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,068 (37.17%)/ McCain 21,676 (61.51%)
Swing: 5.78% Republican
Trend: 1.16% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+18.5/D+10.5

Representative: Don Pridemore

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Hartford
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University
Birthday: 10/20/1946
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: Another thing that happened in this district was that the Democratic Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs that made up the old 22nd were divided in two and given to the 23rd and 24th. This change was meant to target Rep. Sandy Pasch. The new 22nd moved to Southwest Washington County and Northeastern Waukesha County. One of the biggest partisan shifts for an assembly district and it is one of the first changes that I made in my map. Don Pridemore is currently running for State Superintendent.    

Assembly District 23

Counties: Milwaukee and Ozaukee
PVI: R+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,306 (42.36%)/ Romney 21,821 (56.69%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,158 (47.11%)/ Romney 18,872 (51.82%)
Swing: 2.56% Republican
Trend: 4.38% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+2.5


Representative: Jim Ott

Party: Republican
Last Election: Jim Ott 22,536 (62.2%)/ Cris Rogers 13,669 (37.7%)
Obama Comparison: +4.63%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Mequon
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Masters)/ Marquette University (J.D.)  
Birthday: 6/5/1947
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Professor
Religion: N/A

Notes:Has the Lakeshore part of the Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs. This area of the county will be fixed in my Wisconsin State Legislature maps. Went from a possibly competitive district to a safe Republican seat.  

Assembly District 24

Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha
PVI: R+9.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,902 (44.5%)/ Romney 18,259 (54.52%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,700 (45.52%)/ McCain 19,554 (53.29%)
Swing: 2.56% Republican
Trend: 4.38% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+19

Representative: Daniel Knodl  

Party: Republican
Last Election: Daniel Knodl 20,932 (62.4%)/ Shan Haqqi (37.5%)
Obama Comparison: +6.97%
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Germantown
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 12/14/1958
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Resort Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district becomes ten points less Republican, but it is still untouchable for any Democrat. Takes in the western part of the Northeastern Milwaukee County suburbs and goes up into Germantown and parts of Menomonee Falls.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #32 on: February 24, 2013, 04:21:48 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2013, 01:48:09 AM by Mideast Minority Leader Gass3268 »

Senate District 9

Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc and Sheboygan
Three Largest Entities: Sheboygan, Manitowoc and Plymouth
PVI: R+6.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,250 (45.87%)/ Romney 48,844 (53.03%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 45,938 (50.4%) McCain 43,790 (48.50%)
Swing: 9.59% Republican
Trend: 2.62% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+5.5

Senator: Joseph Leibham

Party: Republican
Last Election: Joe Leibham 45,663 (73.11%)/ Jason Borden 15,775 (26.86%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Sheboygan
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison  
Birthday: 6/6/1969
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: Account Executive
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: The one complaint that I have about this district is the split of Manitowoc and Two Rivers, with the later being in Senate District 1. You could exchange the Chilton area of Calumet County with Two Rivers and both districts would be better off. Another point to make is how much this area, especially Manitowoc County, has trended to Republicans over about the last 40 years. When Democrats won the state of Wisconsin between 1960 and 1996 they always won Manitowoc County and they always did decent in Sheboygan County. Now both counties are usually the last to go to the Democrats in a landslide scenario like Obama in 2008 and he still lost Sheboygan County by .65%.

Assembly District 25

Counties: Calumet and Manitowoc  
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,782 (48.51%)/ Romney 15,201 (51.69%)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,004 (51.82%)/ McCain 13,445 (46.43%)
Swing: 10.22% Republican
Trend: 3.25% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+5.5

Representative: Paul Tittl  

Party: Republican
Last Election: Paul Tittl 16,287 (57.6%)/ Jim Brey 11,947 (42.2%)  
Obama Comparison: +4.64%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Manitowoc
Prior Offices: None
Education: None
Birthday: 11/23/1961
Place of Birth: Delavan, WI
Profession: Owner of a Vacuum and Sewing Center
Religion: Christian

Notes: Due to the historical Democratic strength of this area, if there was a wave year I could see a Democrat winning this district. It should be noted that a Democrat did represent this district from 1993 to 2010. Robert Ziegelabuer became an independent that caucused with the Republicans from 2010 to 2013 due to issues he had with the Democratic leadership in the Assembly.    

Assembly District 26

Counties: Sheboygan
PVI: R+7.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,664 (45.05%)/ Romney 16,338 (53.86%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,973 (48.9%)/ McCain 15,165 (49.53%)
Swing: 8.18% Republican
Trend: 1.21% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/D+0.5

Representative: Michael Endsley

Party: Republican
Last Election: Michael Endsley 15,018 (51.3%)/ Mike Helmke 14,257 (48.7%)
Obama Comparison: -3.62%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Sheboygan
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Platteville  
Birthday: 3/4/1962
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: As you can see on the map, the City of Sheboygan was split in two, which makes this district pretty much unwinnable. I am shocked to see how well the Democrat did here in the last election, but my guess is that’s the best one could do given how Republican the southern part of this district is.  

Assembly District 27

Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc and Sheboygan
PVI: R+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,804 (45.75%)/ Romney 17,305 (53.47%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,961 (50.56%)/ McCain 15,180 (48.09%)
Swing: 10.19% Republican
Trend: 3.22% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+8/R+10

Representative: Steve Kestell

Party: Republican
Last Election: Steve Kestell 18,101 (57.9%)/ 13,148 (42%)
Obama Comparison: +3.7%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Elkhart Lake, WI
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/15/1955
Place of Birth: Lyndon, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Christian

Notes: This district got the northern half of the City of Sheboygan, which did cause this district to become two points more Democratic. This is still though unwinnable for the Democrats.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #33 on: February 25, 2013, 03:25:11 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:47:02 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 10

Counties: Burnett, Dunn, Pierce, Polk and St. Croix  
Three Largest Entities: Menomonie, River Falls and Hudson
PVI: R+6
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,328 (46.5%)/ Romney 47,919 (52.65%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,187 (50.42%)/ McCain 43,666 (47.67%)
Swing: 8.9% Republican
Trend: 1.93% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+6

Senator: Sheila Harsdorf

Party: Republican
Last Election: Shelia Harsdorf 51,911 (59.2%)/ Daniel Olson 35,728 (40.7%)
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: River Falls
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
Birthday: 7/25/1956
Place of Birth: St. Paul, MN
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This is Wisconsin’s Twin Cities Metro Area district and like the far suburban/exurban areas in Minnesota, this district rapidly moved away from the Democrats since 2000. Carter, Dukakis and Clinton all preformed very strongly in this region of the state and Carter actually won this district in 1980 against Regan. Yet since then this district has rapidly swung to the right. It was the only large area of the state to trend against Obama in 2008 even though he did win it. It would take a major wave for a Democrat to come close.

Assembly District 28

Counties: Burnett, Polk and St. Croix  
PVI: R+9
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,833 (43.59%)/ Romney 16,093 (54.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,839 (46.97%)/ McCain 15,032 (51.02%)
Swing: 7.02% Republican
Trend: 0.05% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+8.5

Representative: Erik Severson

Party: Republican
Last Election: Erik Severson 15,865 (56.2%)/ Adam T. Bever 12,347 (43.7%)
Obama Comparison: +0.13%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Star Prairie  
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Minnesota-Duluth (Bachelors)/ Mayo Medical School (M.D.)
Birthday: 2/3/1974
Place of Birth: Duluth, MN
Profession: Physician
Religion: N/A

Notes: Interesting note about this district is a Democrat actually served here for two terms and only lost out in the 2010 Republican Wave. So while the numbers don’t look great here, it is possible for a Democrat to win here, but it would probably take a 2006 like wave.  

Assembly District 29

Counties: Dunn and St. Croix  
PVI: R+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,615 (48.32%)/ Romney 15,052 (49.76%)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,525 (52.65%)/ Romney 13,379 (45.37%)
Swing: 8.72% Republican
Trend: 1.75% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+5

Representative: John Murtha

Party: Republican
Last Election: John Murtha 15,237 (55.8%)/ Jim Swanson 12,004 (44%)
Obama Comparison: +4.33%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Baldwin
Prior Offices: St. Croix County Supervisor  
Education: Chippewa Valley Tech
Birthday: 8/8/1951
Place of Birth: Baldwin, WI
Profession: Self-Employed
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district could be potentially competitive whenever Rep. Murtha chooses to retire. The college town of Menominee and the swingy New Richmond could push the district to the Democrats under the right conditions.  

Assembly District 30

Counties: Pierce and St. Croix  
PVI: R+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,880 (47.49%)/ Romney 16,774 (53.53%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,823 (51.52%)/ McCain 15,255 (46.72%0
Swing: 10.84% Republican
Trend: 3.87% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+5

Representative: Dean Knudson

Party: Republican
Last Election: Dean Knudson 17,261 (55.8%)/ Diane Odeen 13,657 (44.1%)
Obama Comparison: +3.55%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Hudson
Prior Offices: Mayor of Hudson, Hudson Alderperson
Education: North Dakota State University (Bachelors),  Iowa State University (D.V.M.)
Birthday: 4/29/1961
Place of Birth: Mayville, ND
Profession: Veterinarian
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: In a wave year this district too could be competitive as River Falls is a college town and Hudson will vote for the Democrat sometimes. Would probably need for Rep. Knudson to retire and have a wave year for that to happen though.  
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« Reply #34 on: February 25, 2013, 09:51:03 PM »

I just did the number crunching for SD-17, which is Shultz's district in the Southwest part of the state. He represents a D+3.5 district and there are 3 Republican Representatives that represent D+4, D+0.5 and a D+6.5 districts. If the Democrats are going to even try to get competitive in the legislature they need to take all for of these seats. There is no reason a Republican should be representing a D+6.5 district.   
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« Reply #35 on: February 25, 2013, 10:00:16 PM »

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Senator: Tim Carpenter

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%)  
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent.  

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa  

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts.  

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee  
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses

Wait a minute.  Why would a district where Romney only got 42% of vote be "competitive" for Republicans in 2014 while seats that gave Obama a percentage in the high 40's only be competitive for Democrats in a "wave" and with an open seat. 

It looks like AD-07 is trending Dem and is about D+6.  Republicans are not winning a seat like that even in a 2010 like envrionment.  Even Kerry probably won there for God's sake. 
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« Reply #36 on: February 25, 2013, 10:28:57 PM »

Wait a minute.  Why would a district where Romney only got 42% of vote be "competitive" for Republicans in 2014 while seats that gave Obama a percentage in the high 40's only be competitive for Democrats in a "wave" and with an open seat. 

It looks like AD-07 is trending Dem and is about D+6.  Republicans are not winning a seat like that even in a 2010 like envrionment.  Even Kerry probably won there for God's sake. 

Statewide this district is only D+2 and If you average the results of Walker and Johnson in 2010, the Republicans  actually won AD-07 by 1.6%. Local Democrats do tend to do better in this area of Milwaukee, but it is very much a working class/blue collar district and it wouldn't shock me if a Republican won here in a wave.
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« Reply #37 on: February 26, 2013, 04:43:23 PM »

Why were Senate districts 3 and 7 drawn the way they were?

There are some Republican stranded in Assembly district 7 and a lot of liberals in Assembly district  19. These could be exchanged.

Assembly districts 7, 20, 21 total out to roughly a 55% Obama district.
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« Reply #38 on: February 27, 2013, 06:33:35 AM »

Why were Senate districts 3 and 7 drawn the way they were?

There are some Republican stranded in Assembly district 7 and a lot of liberals in Assembly district  19. These could be exchanged.

Assembly districts 7, 20, 21 total out to roughly a 55% Obama district.

That's an interesting point and I never thought about it that way. The only reason I could think as to why they didn't draw it that was appearance, as this new SD7 wouldn't look to pretty, and probably the precedent of having a Southern Milwaukee district and a Lakeshore Milwaukee district. If you look at the entire map, the legislature really didn't blow up or radically alter any of the Senate Districts, Assembly is a different story. 
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« Reply #39 on: March 23, 2013, 12:59:21 AM »

Sorry for the delay on this project. I have been doing all of the calculations and add ups for all of the districts the past few weeks. I also went back and added the PVI's for each district, using 2008 and 2012 data, and I showed well the Democratic candidate compared to Obama's 2012 performance in that district.

Senate District 11 will be posted soon!
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« Reply #40 on: March 23, 2013, 02:07:19 AM »
« Edited: March 25, 2013, 08:12:50 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 11

Counties: Jefferson, Kenosha, Racine, Rock, Walworth and Waukesha
Three Largest Entities: Fort Atkinson, Elkhorn and Delavan
PVI: R+9
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 38,816 (43.47%)/ Romney 50,298 (56.33%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 41,149 (47.39%)/ McCain 44,467 (51.21%)
Swing: 9.04% Republican
Trend: 2.07% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10.5/R+17.5

Senator: Neal Kedzie

Party: Republican
Last Election: Neal Kedzie 55,121 (75.37%)/ L.D. Rockwell 17,955 (24.55%)  
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2002
Hometown: Elkhorn
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater  
Birthday: 1/27/1956
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Catholic

Notes: The main reason for the 7 point Republican drop in this district is that in order to pull the 5th, the 9th and 13th more into the Milwaukee suburbs, this district had to be pushed into more Democratic leaning areas. This is still a super safe Republican district and the Democrats have no chance. 

Assembly District 31

Counties: Rock and Walworth
PVI: R+6
2012 Presidential Election: 14,064 (46.48%)/ 15,850 (52.39%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,819 (50.89%)/ 13,894 (47.72%)
Swing: 9.08% Republican
Trend: 2.11% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+17.5

Representative: Amy Loudenbeck

Party: Republican
Last Election: Amy Loudenbeck 16,463 (56.5%)/ Ryan Schroeder 12,653 (43.4%)
Obama Comparison: +3.07
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Clinton
Prior Offices: Town of Clinton supervisor
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 9/29/1969
Place of Birth: Midland, MI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: Representative Loudenbeck won the Beloit based Assembly District 45 in 2010. This district was a D+4.5 and she would have lost in all likelihood lost in 2012. So the Republican legislature created a district for her that includes her hometown of Clinton, the eastern parts of Rock County which is more Republican then the rest of the county and the western part of Walworth County.

Assembly District 32

Counties: Kenosha, Racine and Walworth  
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 10,745 (41.18%)/ Romney 15,006 (57.51%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,740 (46.58%)/ McCain 14,203 (51.93%)
Swing: 10.98% Republican
Trend: 4.01% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+12/R+10.5

Representative: Tyler August

Party: Republican
Last Election: Tyler August 15,586 (57.1%)/ Kim Peterson 10,828 (39.7%)
Obama Comparison: +1.51
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Lake Geneva
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 1/26/1983
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district just shifted around a bit. Was a southern Walworth County district, but is now a eastern Walworth County district.   

Assembly District 33

Counties: Jefferson, Walworth and Waukesha
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,007 (41.27%)/ Romney 19,442 (57.28%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,604 (44.47%)/ McCain 16,398 (53.93%)
Swing: 6.82% Republican
Trend: 0.15% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+12.5/R+22

Representative: Stephen Nass

Party: Republican
Last Election: Stephen Nass 18,891 (62.8%)/ Scott Woods 10,229 (34%)
Obama Comparison: +7.27%
Serving Since: 1990
Hometown: Whitewater
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 10/7/1952
Place of Birth: Whitewater, WI
Profession: Information Analyst/Negotiator/Payroll Benefits Analyst
Religion: N/A

Notes: This was one of 3 districts that was designed to target Democratic Representative Andy Jorgensen who had represented Assembly District 37. The old district was R+1.5 and it was composed of eastern Dane County and the more Democratic parts of western Jefferson County. So the Assembly map were drawn to split this district into 3 parts and pull them into Waukesha County, making them uncompetitive. 
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #41 on: March 23, 2013, 05:25:11 AM »

Stephen Nass looks remarkably like Tyler August. -_-
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krazen1211
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« Reply #42 on: March 23, 2013, 10:47:15 AM »

One really useful thing would be to caption each senate district with the components of its house districts.


IE:

SD-07: DDR
SD-11: RRR


Good maps though.
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« Reply #43 on: March 23, 2013, 03:10:14 PM »

I fixed Stephen Nass' picture and added a Party Incumbent section. Also I realized I forgot to give notes on the SD11 section, so that will be added tonight.   
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« Reply #44 on: June 07, 2013, 11:59:16 PM »

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This would make me very happy! Smiley
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« Reply #45 on: June 08, 2013, 12:04:06 AM »

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This would make me very happy! Smiley

I'm a little depressed he won't run against Walker, but Wisconsin has to be dealing with buyers' remorse right now.
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« Reply #46 on: June 09, 2013, 09:00:14 PM »
« Edited: June 17, 2013, 09:55:49 PM by Senator Gass3268 »

Senate District 12

Counties: Florence, Forest, Langlade, Lincoln, Marathon, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto, Oneida, Shawano and Vilas
Three Largest Entities: Merrill, Antigo and Rhinelander
PVI: R+5.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 43,774 (45.91%)/ Romney 50,411 (52.87%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 49,005 (52.14%)/ McCain 43,461 (46.24%)
Swing: 12.86% Republican
Trend: 5.89% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+4.5

Senator: Thomas Tiffany

Party: Republican
Last Election: Thomas Tiffany 51,176 (56.2%)/ Susan Sommer (40.5%)  
Obama Comparison: +5.41%  
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Hazelhurst
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly, Town Supervisor
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls
Birthday: 12/30/1957
Place of Birth: Wabasha, MN
Profession: Agriculture and Petroleum business
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district did not fundamentally change due to redistricting. What did change was former State Senator Jim Holperin (D-Conover) retired. There was no democrat waiting in the wings that could replace him in this Republican district.

Assembly District 34

Counties: Florence, Forest, Oneida and Vilas  
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,108 (44.62%)/ Romney 19,550 (54.15%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,732 (50.58%)/ McCain 16,747 (47.77%)
Swing: 12.34% Republican
Trend: 5.37% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+5.5

Representative: Rob Swearingen

Party: Republican
Last Election: Rob Swearingen 19,442 (57.2%)/ Merlin Van Buren 12,297 (36.2%)
Obama Comparison: +8.47%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Rhinelander
Prior Offices: None
Education: None
Birthday: 7/23/1963
Place of Birth: Rhinelander, WI
Profession: Restaurant Owner and Operator
Religion: N/A

Notes: Due to loss of population over the decade, this district had to expand. Other than that it’s a safe Republican seat.  

Assembly District 35

Counties: Langland, Lincoln, Marathon, Oneida and Shawano  
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,150 (47.09%)/ Romney 15,528 (51.68%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15, 931 (53.40%/ McCain 13,365 (44.80%)
Swing: 13.19% Republican
Trend: 6.22% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+3.5

Representative: Mary Czaja

Party: Republican
Last Election: Mary Czaja 15,481 (53.3%)/ Kevin Koth 12,149 (41.8%)
Obama Comparison: +5.26%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Irma
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls
Birthday: 9/25/1963
Place of Birth: Tomahawk, WI
Profession: Small Business Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district essentially stays the same. This is a district the Dems would have to win in order to bring the margin down in the Assembly.

Assembly District 36

Counties: Forest, Langlade, Marinette, Menominee, Oconto and Shawano  
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,516 (46.29%)/ Romney 15,333 (52.51%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,549 (52.81%)/ McCain 13,479 (45.78%)
Swing: 13.25% Republican
Trend: 6.28% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+3.5

Representative: Jeffrey Mursau

Party: Republican
Last Election: Jeffrey Mursau 15,886 (59.1%)/ Dorothy Kegley 10,997 (40.9%)  
Obama Comparison: +5.41%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Crivitz
Prior Offices: Crivitz Village President
Education: N/A  
Birthday: 6/12/1954
Place of Birth: Oconto Falls, WI
Profession: Small Busniess Owner  
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: No major changes to this district. Another district Dems would have to win in order to get closer in the Assembly.  
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« Reply #47 on: June 11, 2013, 02:35:29 AM »

Senate District 13

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Jefferson, Washington and Waukesha
Three Largest Entities: Watertown, Beaver Damn and Oconomowoc
PVI: R+9.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 40,510 (43.08%)/ Romney 52,481 (55.80%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 41,273 (47.16%)/ McCain 45,026 (51.45%)
Swing: 8.43% Republican
Trend: 1.49% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9.5/R+9

Senator: Scott Fitzgerald

Party: Republican
Last Election: Scott Fitzgerald 47,146 (58.3%)/ Lori Compas 32,909 (40.7%) (2012 Recall)
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 1995
Hometown: Juneau
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Oshkosh 
Birthday: 11/16/1963
Place of Birth: Chicago, IL
Profession: Business Owner 
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: In order to go after Representative Andy Jorgensen, who had represented the 37th Assembly District, this district had to pull out of the more Democratic friendly areas of Jefferson County. To make up this population they went into Washington County, further into Waukesha County and into Dane County. These changes didn’t affect the Republican strength of this district and it is still a Safe Republican seat. Scott Fitzgerald is the Majority Leader in the State Senate.     

Assembly District 37

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge and Jefferson   
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: 13,698 (45.68%)/ Romney 15,898 (53.01%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,271 (49.45%)/ McCain 14,122 (48.93%)
Swing: 7.85% Republican
Trend: 0.91% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+1.5

Representative: John Jagler

Party: Republican
Last Election: John Jagler 15,799 (54.2%)/ Mary Arnold 13,289 (45.6)
Obama Comparison: +0.13
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Watertown
Prior Offices: None
Education: Trans-American School of Broadcasting (Madison)
Birthday: 11/4/1969
Place of Birth: Louisville, KY
Profession: Owner of a Communication and consulting firm
Religion: N/A

Notes: The new 37th takes most of the area of what was once the 38th. There are some areas of Democratic strength, especially in Columbus, Deforest and Waterloo, but this strength is drowned out by Watertown and the eastern parts of Jefferson County. This district is too far out of reach for the Democrats. The old 37th was a lean Democratic seat.   

Assembly District 38

Counties: Dane, Dodge and Waukesha 
PVI: R+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,249 (41.67%)/ Romney 19,635 (57.42%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,968 (46.83%)/ McCain 15,500 (51.96%)
Swing: 10.61% Republican
Trend: 3.68% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9.5/R+15.5

Representative: Joel Kleefisch

Party: Republican
Last Election: Joel Kleefisch 19,181 (58.5%)/ Scott Michalak 12,795 (39%)   
Obama Comparison: +2.64%
Serving Since: 2004
Hometown: Oconomowoc
Prior Offices: None
Education: Pepperdine University
Birthday: 6/8/1971
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This takes up a lot of area that was once the 37th. Similar to the 37th this district has some very Democratic areas with Cambridge, Deerfield, Lake Mills and Marshall, but that Oconomowoc in Waukesha County drowns all out. This district did become 6 points more Democratic with redistricting, but it is still a totally safe Republican seat. Rep. Joel Kleefisch is married to Lieutenant Governor Rebecca Kleefisch.   

Assembly District 39

Counties: Dodge and Washington
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,563 (42.07%)/ Romney 16,498 (56.75%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,034 (45.21%)/ McCain 15,404 (53.43%)
Swing: 6.46% Republican
Trend: 0.48% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+12.5/R+10.5

Representative: Mark Born

Party: Republican
Last Election: Mark Born 17,465 (60.4%)/ Jim Grigg 11,446 (39.6%)
Obama Comparison: +2.51%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Beaver Dam
Prior Offices:   
Education: Gustavus Adolphus University   
Birthday: 4/14/1976
Place of Birth: Beaver Dam, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district stays pretty much the same other then shifting a bit to the east and into Washington County. This is still a safe Republican seat. 
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« Reply #48 on: June 11, 2013, 04:08:50 AM »

Senate District 13

Counties: Adams, Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette, Outagamie, Sauk, Waupaca and Waushara. 
Three Largest Entities: Ripon, New London and Waupaca   
PVI: R+5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,461 (48.08%)/ Romney 43,871 (50.87%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 44,027 (51.22%)/ McCain 40,650 (47.29%)
Swing: 6.72% Republican
Trend: 0.25% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+5

Senator: Luther Olsen

Party: Republican
Last Election: Luther Olsen 47,137 (57.5%)/ Margarete Worthington 34,742 (42.4%) 
Obama Comparison: +5.68
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Ripon
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 2/26/1951
Place of Birth: Berlin, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The biggest change to this district is the southern part of district now takes in the area that was once Assembly District 47 instead of Assembly District 42. This was done in order to make life difficult for Rep. Fred Clark who was running against Senator Luther Olsen in the 2011 recalls. He lived in Baraboo, which would have been in the new 27th Senate District. He would have had to move. Other than that the district’s partisan numbers stayed the same.

Assembly District 40

Counties: Outagamie, Waupaca and Waushara 
PVI: R+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,819 (45.16%)/ Romney 15,352 (54.08%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,551 (50.49%)/ McCain 13,844 (48.04%)
Swing: 11.37% Republican
Trend: 4.40% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6.5/R+6.5

Representative: Kevin Petersen

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison Uncontested
Serving Since:  2007
Hometown: Waupaca
Prior Offices: Town of Dayton Supervisor
Education: University of New Mexico 
Birthday: 12/14/1963
Place of Birth: Waupaca, WI
Profession: Co-Owner of a Family Run Electronics Corporation
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district remains a primarily Waupaca district, which means it’s a safe Republican Seat. 

Assembly District 41

Counties: Adams, Columbia, Fond du Lac, Green Lake, Marquette and Waushara   
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,780 (48.51%)/ Romney 14,279 (50.27%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,345 (51.51%)/ McCain 13,061 (46.90%)
Swing: 5.21% Republican
Trend: 1.76% Democrat
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5.5/R+10.5

Representative: Joan Ballweg

Party: Republican
Last Election: Joan Ballweg 15,035 (57.9%)/ Melissa Sorenson 10,906 (42%)
Obama Comparison: +6.5%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Markesan
Prior Offices: Mayor Of Markesan
Education: University of Wisconsin-Stevens Point
Birthday: 3/16/1952
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Co-Owner of Farm Equipment Business
Religion: Roman Catholic

Notes: By taking in more of Adams and Marquette County this district shifted 5 points to the Democrats. On the state level is very much a Republican district and it would take a 2010 like wave in favor of the Democrats for them to have a chance.     

Assembly District 42

Counties: Columbia, Dane, Dodge, Green, Fond du Lac and Marquette
PVI: R+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,541 (50.75%)/ Romney 14,715 (48.06%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,131 (51.68%)/ McCain 13,745 (46.94%)
Swing: 2.05% Republican
Trend: 4.92% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/D+1.5

Representative: Keith Ripp

Party: Republican
Last Election: Keith Ripp 16,394 (56.6%)/ Paula Cooper 12,567 (43.4%)
Obama Comparison: +7.38
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Lodi
Prior Offices: Town of Dane Supervisor
Education: N/A 
Birthday: 11/13/1961
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: Farmer and Small Business Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is essentially the old 47th Assembly District. The older version of this district was D+2.5 and this district did move out of Dane County enough to be safe for Rep. Keith Ripp. This is still a district that Dems need to win if they want to get closer in the Assembly.   
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« Reply #49 on: June 11, 2013, 08:02:31 PM »

Senate District 15

Counties: Dane, Green, Jefferson, Rock and Walworth
Three Largest Entities: Janesville, Beloit and Whitewater   
PVI: D+8.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 52,344 (61.39%)/ Romney 31,653 (37.12%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 55,225 (64.61%)/ McCain 28,848 (33.7%)
Swing: 6.59% Republican
Trend: 0.31% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+8/D+6.5

Senator: Timothy Cullen

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Timothy Cullen 31,918 (58.98%)/ Rick Richard 22,181 (40.99%)   
Obama Comparison: 2014 Election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Janesville
Prior Offices: Janesville City Council and Wisconsin State Senate from 1974-1986
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater 
Birthday: 2/25/1944
Place of Birth: Janesville, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The district shifts out of Eastern Rock and Walworth Counties and into Southeastern Dane and Western Green Counties. As a result the district becomes a point and a half more Democratic. Very safe seat for the Democrats.

Assembly District 43

Counties: Dane, Jefferson, Rock and Walworth 
PVI: D+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,478 (58.13%)/ Romney 12,729 (40.04%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 19,619 (61.86%)/ McCain 11,573 (36.49%)
Swing: 7.28% Republican
Trend: 0.31% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+5.5/D+4

Representative: Andy Jorgenson

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Andy Jorgenson 17,612 (57.6%)/ Evan Wynn 12,894 (42.2%)
Obama Comparison: +0.55%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Fort Atkinson
Prior Offices: None
Education: Brown Institute (MN)
Birthday: 9/10/1967
Place of Birth: Berlin, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district shifted to the north into Dane and Jefferson Counties. As a result it got more Democratic. This was one example of an incumbent versus incumbent race. The former Representative for this district was Republican Evan Wynn, who won a district in the 2010 wave that he had no business holding. Democrat Andy Jorgenson moved from his home in Fort Atkinson that is now in the very Republican District 37, to the southern rural area just outside of Fort Atkinson and he won this district easily. 

Assembly District 44

Counties: Rock
PVI: D+10.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 17,332 (63.20%)/ Romney 9,802 (35.74%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,560 (67.24%)/ McCain 8,619 (31.22%)
Swing: 8.56% Republican
Trend: 1.59% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+11/D+11.5

Representative: Debra Kolste

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Debra Kolste 16,983 (61.5%)/ Joe Knilans 10,571 (38.3%)
Obama Comparison: +1.66%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Janesville
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Nebraska
Birthday: 6/20/1953
Place of Birth: O’Neill, NE
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district remains essentially the same. This is the 3rd of the Rock County districts that Republicans gained in the 2010 wave and this was the worst for the Democrats. Joe Knilans in 2010 defeated the Speaker of the Assembly Mike Sheridan by about 500 votes. This district corrected itself in 2012 by a large margin. 

Assembly District 45

Counties: Green and Rock
PVI: D+9
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,534 (63.45%)/ Romney 9,122 (35.01%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,046 (65.17%)/ McCain 8,656 (33.10%)
Swing: 3.63% Republican
Trend: 3.34% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+7/D+4.5

Representative: Janis Ringhand

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Janis Ringhand 15,753 (63.7%)/ Beth Schmidt 8,906 (36%)
Obama Comparison: -0.30
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Evansville, WI
Prior Offices: Evansville City Council and Mayor of Evansville
Education: Madison Area Technical College 
Birthday: 2/13/1950
Place of Birth: Madison, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is a mix of the former 43rd, 45th and 80th. Gets more Democratic to the point were it would be impossible to see a Republican win here, especially with the popular Janis Ringhand as the incumbent.   
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