Wisconsin Megathread

[windjammer]

Here is the State Legislature ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. I would argue that it is definitely possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate, but it would require a great year and probably a few open seats.   

If we wanted to have the national average, we have to add 4.52 point of %?

Excellent job Gass

[Gass3268]

Here is the State Legislature ranked from the most Democratic seat to the most Republican seat. All of the PVI numbers are based on the state average, which is 54.52% Democratic, rather then the national average. I would argue that it is definitely possible for the Democrats to take back the Senate, but it would require a great year and probably a few open seats.   

If we wanted to have the national average, we have to add 4.52 point of %?

Excellent job Gass

You would subtract 2.58% to the Republican districts and add 2.58% to the Democratic districts.

[windjammer]

Thank you Gass! So the wisconsin senate can become a dem majority in a democratic year.

Has Scott Walker recovered?

[Gass3268]

Thank you Gass! So the wisconsin senate can become a dem majority in a democratic year.

Has Scott Walker recovered?

It is possible, but it would be difficult and we could only have majority at best by one seat. Walker has been recovered since the recalls. I don't think its impossible that he could lose, it is just extremely unlikely.

[Gass3268]

Good news!

http://www.postcrescent.com/viewart/U0/20130723/APC010403/307230196/Bernard-Schaber-will-challenge-Ellis-state-Senate

This is the best candidate that the Democrats could put forward in Senate District 19. I would still say that Senator Ellis is the favorite, but this development could make it closer. 

[Pessimistic Antineutrino]

From what I've been hearing Ron Johnson is one of the weakest 2010 'Pubs, even weaker than Mark Kirk. So how weak is he exactly, and how likely is it that he'll win reelection?

[Gass3268]

From what I've been hearing Ron Johnson is one of the weakest 2010 'Pubs, even weaker than Mark Kirk. So how weak is he exactly, and how likely is it that he'll win reelection?

It will depend on who runs against him. If Feingold wants the seat back, I think Johnson would be in trouble. Also I think Ron Kind could be competitive.

[Gass3268]

It's looking like Madison School Board member Mary Burke is the favorite to become the Democratic nominee for governor. Her main claim to fame is that she is the heir to the Trek Bicycle Company which is located in Waterloo, WI. She would be able to self fund, which could be critical against Walker.   

http://www.wispolitics.com/index.iml?Article=304068

[windjammer]

Defeating Walker would be hmmmm awesome . He will probably be totally far to right if reelected in order to align himself with tea party...

[Mr.Phips]

Using a state average PVI is deceptive.  Wisconsin is about D+3 when compared to the national average, meaning that by using your system of state PVI's, an R+1 district is actually going to be Dem tilting when looking at the big picture.  I would suggest switching to using national averages, rather than Wisconsin statewide averages for your PVI's.

[Miles]

This isn't Congressional, but AG J.B Van Hollen isn't running.

[Gass3268]

Mary Burke also formally announces that she'll be running for governor!

http://www.wqow.com/story/23624154/businesswoman-mary-burke-enters-governors-race

[Nhoj]

My state senator is retiring, despite a poor performance by him in 2010 I don't think this is much of a GOP pickup opportunity. Did walker even win it?

http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/news/nw-wisconsin/Wis-Senator-Bob-Jauch-retiring-227075001.html

[Gass3268]

My state senator is retiring, despite a poor performance by him in 2010 I don't think this is much of a GOP pickup opportunity. Did walker even win it?

http://www.northlandsnewscenter.com/news/nw-wisconsin/Wis-Senator-Bob-Jauch-retiring-227075001.html

I think Barrett won it both times. Ashland, Bayfield and Douglas are just too Dem for the other areas of the district to overcome.

[Gass3268]

http://host.madison.com/news/state-and-regional/democrat-wittwer-to-run-for-schultz-s-senate-seat/article_98151985-842f-53b6-81a2-f7613176e780.html

Ernie Wittwer, a former budget director for the state Department of Transportation, has announced a run for the 17th State Senate district. This district is currently represented by a moderate Republican in Dale Shultz. Senator Shutlz is curently getting primaried from the right by Representative Howard Marklein of Assembly District 51, which is most Democratic Assembly seat with a Republican representative at D+9. Interesting note in the article is that Marklein has
raised $116,000 compared with just $684 for Schultz.

With the 17th Senate District at D+6 and the 51st Assembly Distirct at D+9 we are possibly looking at the perfect strom for the Democrats to pick up both if Marklein defeats Shultz in the piramary.

[Gass3268]

Also is there anyway to get this moved to the state election board. I feel like it would get more attention there.

[windjammer]

And Scott Walker, would a scandal be possible?

[Gass3268]

And Scott Walker, would a scandal be possible?

It would depend on how serious it gets for there to be much of an effect. Problem is that when anything fishy comes out about him, people assume its just politics and nothing substantial.

[Lief 🗽]

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/marquette-university-law-school-to-release-new-poll-results-b99130541z1-229724451.html

Marquette (the Gold Standard in Wisconsin) shows a narrow Walker lead over Burke, 47-45.

[Gass3268]

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/marquette-university-law-school-to-release-new-poll-results-b99130541z1-229724451.html

Marquette (the Gold Standard in Wisconsin) shows a narrow Walker lead over Burke, 47-45.

State Sen. Kathleen Vinehout is only down by 3% as well. The key for Burke will be for her to define herself and not the Walker campaign, as she is viewed favorable by 17% while 14% had an unfavorable view and 70% didn't have an opinion.

[ElectionsGuy]

From what I've been hearing Ron Johnson is one of the weakest 2010 'Pubs, even weaker than Mark Kirk. So how weak is he exactly, and how likely is it that he'll win reelection?

Are you sure about that? Surely Ron Johnson is too far right for Wisconsin and he will face very tough challenges, but weaker than Mark Kirk in very blue Illinois... I heavily doubt that.

[TJ in Oregon]

I made a religion map for Wisconsin and I was thinking this thread might be the best place for it (even though it is a demographic map rather than an election one).

The color code is the same as the Ohio map I made ages ago, the brighter the shade, the more dominant the group
Blue = Mainline Protestant
Red = Evangelical Protestant
Green = Catholic
Black = Other

Determinations follow the ARDA Database standards, except that I counted Traditionally Black Churches as mainline (which is pretty much irrelevant in Wisconsin anyway).



For the most part, this hints at the political divisions between eastern and western Wisconsin with the east having more green/red/brown and the west having more blue/teal/purple, and it seems the former mix of groups tends to be more conservative than the latter. To a large extent the red/blue split simply highlights the dominance of the ELCA (blue) and LCMS and WELS (red) in different parts of the state.

[Gass3268]

Looks like State Senator Kathleen Vinehout will run against Mary Burke for Wisconsin governor. Burke is not popular with many in the Labor side of the Democratic Party. Many on that side have been big supporters of Vinehout jumping out. Senator Vinehout represents Eau Claire and the area to the south along the Mississippi River.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/despite-long-odds-vinehout-sounding-as-if-shell-run-against-burke-b99152480z1-233949291.html

[Gass3268]

State Senator Dale Shultz (R-Richland Center) will not seek reelection in 2014. Shultz is the 3rd Wisconsin State Senator to leave the legislature along with Sen. Tim Cullen (D-Janesville) and Sen. Bob Jauch (D-Poplar). This is one of the few Senate seats in the state currently represented by a Republican that the Democrats having a fighting chance to take. Obama got 56.58% and Baldwin got 51.87% in 2012, yet all 3 Assembly Seats in the district remained Republican in 2012. I would probably lable this as a Toss-Up/Tilt R.

http://www.jsonline.com/news/statepolitics/republican-dale-schultz-wont-seek-re-election-in-senate-b99192350z1-242203711.html

While I am excited with the potential of a Dem pick up here, Dale Shultz is the only Republican in the Wisconsin State Legislature that I respect. He pushed for real bipartisan solutions on everything from Act 10, the mining bill, redistricting reform, etc. Sort of a mix bag with him leaving.

[RogueBeaver]

MLS has Walker up 47/41 on Burke from 47/45 in October. So more undecideds... bit weird IMO.