Wisconsin Megathread

[Gass3268]

I just wanted a place were I could post my maps and occasionally my opinion on matters.

My first map is comparing the percentages between President Obama and Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin in their respective races. Obama outperformed Baldwin in the red counties and Baldwin outperformed Obama in the green counties. The shades represent 1% interval's.

  

Some quick observations:
- Obama did better then Baldwin in her congressional district. This includes outperforming here by 2.02% in Dane County.
- Obama also did much better then Baldwin in the Driftless area of the Southwest part of the state. This makes sense as this is Tommy Thompson's home region, even though Baldwin won in most of these counties in this region. Big exception was Juneau County, were Thompson is from, were Obama did 5.58% better than Baldwin. He won the county while she lost it.
- Baldwin did much better then Obama up Nort (little bit of Wisconsin lingo, lol) and in the Minneapolis exurbs. Wondering if race had something to do this is difference or if it was more about their opinions on Obama's performance as President.    

[adma]

- Obama did better then Baldwin in her congressional district. This includes outperforming here by 2.02% in Dane County.

And other than Racine/Kenosha, outperforming Baldwin in Paul Ryan's congressional district, too.

[Gass3268]

- Obama did better then Baldwin in her congressional district. This includes outperforming here by 2.02% in Dane County.

And other than Racine/Kenosha, outperforming Baldwin in Paul Ryan's congressional district, too.

This is true, but Obama only did less then 1% better in each county that makes up Ryan's district and the same for Baldwin in Racine/Kenosha. My guess is the %'s would be close to the same in the district.

[Gass3268]

Here is the 112th Congress Caucus Map:

Key:
Dem 90% - Progressive Caucus
Dem 70% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition
Dem 50% - New Democrat Coalition
Dem 30% - New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 10% - Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 00% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Grey - No Caucus Membership
Rep 90% - Tea Party Caucus
Rep 70% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee
Rep 50% - Republican Study Committee
Rep 30% - Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 10% - Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 00% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership (Also one case of Tea Party Caucus & Main Street Republican Partnership, symbolized with a dot)    

[Oldiesfreak1854]

Here is the 112th Congress Caucus Map:

Key:
Dem 90% - Progressive Caucus
Dem 70% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition
Dem 50% - New Democrat Coalition
Dem 30% - New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 10% - Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 00% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Grey - No Caucus Membership
Rep 90% - Tea Party Caucus
Rep 70% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee
Rep 50% - Republican Study Committee
Rep 30% - Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 10% - Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 00% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership (Also one case of Tea Party Caucus & Main Street Republican Partnership, symbolized with a dot)     

I thought Dave Camp was a member of both the Study Committee and the Main Street Partnership.  And this is the old congressional district before redistricting.

[they don't love you like i love you]

I'm having a very difficult time picturing what type of person is a Romney/Baldwin voter.

[Miles]

I thought Dave Camp was a member of both the Study Committee and the Main Street Partnership.  And this is the old congressional district before redistricting.

This was for the 112th Congress, ergo, he's using the old map.

[Gass3268]

I thought Dave Camp was a member of both the Study Committee and the Main Street Partnership.  And this is the old congressional district before redistricting.

I'm going off of the lists on wikipedia and he's not on either. Also what Miles said about the 112th Congress.

You forgot the populist caucus.

I missed them and I don't think it would work on this map. Also they have yet to make a huge impact yet, if they do in the future I'll add them.

[Gass3268]

Here is an identical map, but this time its Walker vs Johnson in 2010:


Some quick observations:
- Looking at this map, it appears that the Senate race made a bigger difference in the differences between Walker and Johnson   
- Feingold did much better then Barrett almost all over the state, but particularly in the Dirftless area and the Northwoods. If he could have ran a bit better in these parts, he could have made it a much closer race
- Johnson's best area was the Fox River Valley which is not surprising considering it's his home region
- No idea why Johnson did 2.05% better then Walker in Polk County while doing relatively worse in the other Minneapolis exurb counties     

[Gass3268]

I will be adding some maps and data on the Wisconsin State Legislature here soon!

[Nhoj]

polk county does have a weird tendency for statistical anomalies. I think there was a primary some years ago where some pro weed guy did well there.

[Mr.Phips]

I will be adding some maps and data on the Wisconsin State Legislature here soon!

Id love to see maps of the Wisconsin legislature, especially the Assembly.  I know that in 2010, Republicans somehow picked up a bunch of seats in districts that went for Obama with 60%+ of the vote in 2008.  There was even one that Republicans picked up that went 68% for Obama. 

Since the districts were changed around so much in the 2011 redistricting, this state is really hard to follow.  Did these Republicans survive reelection or were these seats made better for Repubicans somehow?

[Gass3268]

As I am about to start going through the Wisconsin State Legislature I need to make a few overall points:

- Each post will consist of a Senate District and its 3 corresponding Assembly Districts
- There will be some information, maps and pictures on the 4 districts and on the 4 Legislators
- I constructed the PVI of the different districts using the 2008 Presidential election and the average of the 2010 statewide races
- It should be noted that the maps made with DRA are not perfect because the application still uses the old ward lines which changed after redistricting, but they are as close as possible
- When I am done going through the current legislature, I will show how I would draw a fair, okay maybe a slight Democratic map, haha  
- Also I know that this is about statewide elections and we are in the congressional elections section, but I already had this thread going and I didn't want to make a new one  

Senate District 1 is coming up first!

[Gass3268]

Senate District 1

Counties: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc and Outagamie
Three Largest Entities: Western DePere, Southeast Appleton and Two Rivers  
PVI: R+4
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 44,717 (47.15%)/ Romney 48,892 (51.55%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 51,595 (53.8%)/ McCain 42,786 (44.62%)
Swing: 13.58% Republican
Trend: 6.61% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+4

Senator: Frank Lasee

Party: Republican
Last Election: Frank Lassee 43,415 (60%)/ Monk Elmer 28,800 (39.8%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Ledgeview
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly (Assembly District 2)(1995-2009)
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (1986)
Birthday: 12/11/1961
Place of Birth: Oceanside, California
Profession: Real Estate Broker
Religion: Christian

Notes: The districts for the Wisconsin State Legislature in the Fox Cities (Appleton Area) and the Fox River Valley (Green Bay Metro) are awful. Both areas get split into 4 different Senate Districts and then go off into more rural areas. I will provide cleaner lines for this area when I show and describe my maps after going through the current Legislature.

Yet it is crazy to think that this district actually become a half point more Democratic in redistricting after seeing the Obama numbers in 2012. I can’t see a Democrat winning here in the near future, especially in 2014. Also, one can see overall that Obama has done a better job in drawing voters then local Democrats have been able to in this Senate District and the 3 Assembly Districts.

Assembly District 1

Counties: Brown, Door, Kewaunee and Manitowoc
PVI: R+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,809 (49.38%)/ Romney 16,836 (49.46)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,513 (56.35%)/ McCain 13,884 (42.26)
Swing: 14.17% Republican
Trend: 7.2% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+1/R+0.5  

Represntative: Garey Bies

Party: Republican
Last Election: Garey Bies 16,993 (51.3%)/ Patrick Vesser 16,124 (48.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.73%
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: Sister Bay
Prior Offices: None
Education: Northeast Technical College
Birthday: 10/26/1946
Place of Birth: Manitowoc, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: Catholic

Notes: This would have been nice seat to gain in 2012. If only Obama could have done a little bit better here. His district probably won’t be competitive again until the next presidential race, as that is the only time Democrats perform well up in the Door County area.

Assembly District 2

Counties: Brown, Manitowoc and Outagamie
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,358 (45.49%)/ Romney 15,621 (53.2%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,503 (52.31%)/ McCain 14,507 (45.99%)
Swing: 14.03% Republican
Trend: 7.06% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+6

Representative: Andre Jacque  

Party: Republican
Last Election: Andre Jacque 17,082 (58.6%)/ Larry Pruess 12,033 (41.3%)  
Obama Comparison: +4.2%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: DePere
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (2003)
Birthday: 10/13/1980
Place of Birth: Beaver Dam, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The City of Two Rivers in the eastern part of the district is a good Democratic base, but the conservative rural areas really drown it out. A democrat actually represented this district from 2009 to 2011 and he actually defeated the current State Senate Frank Lasee, but that was due in large part to Obama’s 2008 surge and was an extreme outlier for what usually happens here.

Assembly District 3

Counties: Calumet and Outagamie
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,550 (46.29%)/ Romney 16,435 (53.2%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,645 (52.31%)/ McCain 13,080 (45.99%)
Swing: 11.55% Republican
Trend: 4.58% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4/R+5

Representative: Alvin Ott

Party: Republican
Last Election: Alvin Ott 17,387 (58%)/ Kole Oswald 11,398 (38%)
Obama Comparison: +8.28%
Serving Since: 1987
Howntown: Forest Junction
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/19/1949
Place of Birth: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district also gets a bit more democratic, but a majority of the district is in Calumet County, which is traditionally very Republican. There is some Democratic strength in the Appleton and Menasha spillover as well as the Village of Kimberly, but there is not enough to make up what is going on in the rural area.  

[Gass3268]

Senate District 2

Counties: Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and Waupaca  
Three Largest Entities: Green Bay, Ashwaubenon, Allouez
PVI: R+5.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,768 (46.15%)/ Romney 47,662 (52.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,843 (52.33%)/ McCain 41,350 (46.19%)
Swing: 12.65% Republican
Trend: 5.68% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+5

Senator: Robert Cowles

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1987
Hometown: Green Bay, WI
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly (1983-1986)
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (1975)
Birthday: 7/31/1975
Place of Birth: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: Episcopalian

Notes: This is another one of those annoying Senate District that chops the Fox River Valley and Fox Cities into 4 different Districts. This district takes the western Green Bay Suburbs and then goes west taking most of Shawano County and most of northern Outagamie County.

This is very much a Republican district as shown by the fact that Senator Cowles won reelection unopposed in 2012. Obama may have won it in 2012, but that was an outlier.

Assembly District 4

Counties: Brown
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,629 (47.88%)/ Romney 16,718 (51.21%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,431 (52.27%)/ McCain 14,575 (46.37%)
Swing: 9.23% Republican
Trend: 2.26% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old):  R+4/R+4

Representative: Chad Weininger

Party: Republican
Last Election: Chad Weininger 16,029 (55.6%)/ Michael Malcheski 12,770 (44.3%)  
Obama Comparison: +3.6%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Green Bay
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: Cardinal Stritch University MBA (2004)  
Birthday: 2/7/1972
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: If this district starts voting more like the City of Green Bay, then maybe it could become competitive. Yet right now it is hard to see a Republican losing this.

Assembly District 5

Counties: Brown and Outagamie
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,321 (45.78%)/ Romney 16,559 (52.94%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,233 (53.7%)/ McCain 13,506 (44.68%)
Swing: 16.18% Republican
Trend: 9.21% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+3

Representative: Jim Steineke

Party: Republican
Last Election: Jim Steineke 16,117 (55.9%)/ Jeff McCabe 12,709 (44.1%)
Obama Comparison: +1.73%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Kaukauna  
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 11/23/1970
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This seat actually changed parties in 2010, but it would take a change in the political atmosphere of the State for this to get competitive again. Making things worse the district was made a half point more Republican.

Assembly District 6

Counties: Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and Waupaca  
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,818 (44.46%)/ Romney 14,385 (54.12%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,157 (50.94%)/ McCain 13,229 (47.6%)
Swing: 13% Republican
Trend: 6.03% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7/R+8.5

Representative: Gary Tauchen

Party: Republican
Last Election: Gary Tauchen 15,423 (59.4)/ John Powers 10,508 (40.5)  
Obama Comparison: +3.98%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Bonduel  
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls (1976)
Birthday: 11/23/1953
Place of Birth: Rice Lake, WI
Profession: Businessman
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got 1.5 points more Democratic, but considering this is mainly Shawano County, I don’t see this ever flipping in the near future.  

[Gass3268]

Thoughts on my series so far? Is there anything else you'd like to see me add to the posts? I'd love to here others thoughts!

[Talleyrand]

What are the best pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats in the coming years? If they're guaranteed to lose Senator Lehman's seat next year, that would give them a baseline of 14 seats to start off with, I assume.

[Mr.Phips]

What are the best pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats in the coming years? If they're guaranteed to lose Senator Lehman's seat next year, that would give them a baseline of 14 seats to start off with, I assume.

The Schultz seat would probably be a near gimme if he retired.  Pretty much all of the swingy seats are held by Republicans with the exception of Dave Hanson. 

[Gass3268]

What are the best pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats in the coming years? If they're guaranteed to lose Senator Lehman's seat next year, that would give them a baseline of 14 seats to start off with, I assume.

The Schultz seat would probably be a near gimme if he retired.  Pretty much all of the swingy seats are held by Republicans with the exception of Dave Hanson. 

One would think that 17th would flip to the Democrats if Schultz retired, but it should be noted that all 3 representatives in the Assembly from that district are Republicans. This area really likes Republicans on the local area, but will almost always support Democrats on statewide elections. It will be a close race when whenever Shultz retires, but it probably won't be competitive until he retires. The 19th, which is most of the Fox Cities, could be competitive whenever Michael Ellis retires. Other then that I don't see anymore competitive seats. Jim Holperin retiring pretty much makes the 12th un-winnable, redistricting took the 5th, 8th and 21st completely off the table, Jessica King was the best possible candidate in the 18th yet she still lost in a good 2012 environment and man of the districts that were lost in 2010 (23&29) are trending away from the Dems. I could see a permanent Republican Majority of 19-14 for the decade. Taking back the Governors Mansion in 2018 is going to be the only way to change this, baring an awful Republican Presidential administration starting in 2016.

[Gass3268]

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
PVI: D+13
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Senator: Tim Carpenter

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%)  
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+2
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent.  

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+30
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa  

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts.  

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+17.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses to retire.

[Mr.Phips]

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee 
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Representative: Tim Carpenter

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%) 
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent. 

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa 

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested 
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts. 

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee 
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested 
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses to retire.

Still hungry!!!

[Gass3268]

Senate District 4

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+31
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, Shorewood and Glendale  
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 75,690 (86.12%)/ Romney 11,642 (13.25%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 71,776 (84.45%)/ McCain 12,545 (14.76%)
Swing: 3.18% Democratic
Trend: 10.15% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+33.5

Senator: Lena Taylor

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Lena Taylor 64,064 (86.1%)/ David King 10,154 (13.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.04%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ Southern Illinois University-Carbondale (J.D.)
Birthday: 7/25/1966
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Columnist and Lawyer  
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is one of the two African American senate districts in Milwaukee. African Americans make up a majority of this district at 58.3%.  It will be interesting to see what will happens to this district as the African American population in Milwaukee continues to decline.

Assembly District 10

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+35
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 29,006 (89.66%)/ Romney 3,111 (9.62%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 27,858 (89.72%)/ McCain 2,973 (9.58%)
Swing: 0.1% Republican
Trend: 6.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+38/D39.5

Representative: Sandy Pasch

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Shorewood
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bachelors)/ Bioethics Medical College of Wisconsin & University of Rochester (Masters)
Birthday: 5/19/1954
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Nurse and Professor
Religion: N/A

Notes: There are six majority African American assembly districts in Milwaukee. This is one of them at 62.9% African American. Due to redistricting, the White Northeast Democratic leaning Milwaukee County suburbs were split into three in order to target Sandy Pasch for running against Senator Alberta Darling in the recall. Rep. Pasch chose to run in this district, which caused some controversy. The former Representative from the area, Elizabeth Coggs advised her voters to vote for someone that “looks like you.” This actually angered the voters of the district and Rep. Pasch won the primary in a landside.

Assembly District 11

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+31.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,742 (86.93%)/ Romney 3,557 (12.5%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22,551 (84.66%)/ McCain 3,878 (14.56%)
Swing: 4.33% Democratic  
Trend: 11.3% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31.5/D+39

Representative: Mandela Barnes

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Milwaukee, WI
Birthday: 12/1/1986
Place of Birth:  Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Community Activist
Religion: N/A

Notes: Another Northside Milwaukee majority African American district. African Americans make up 60.4% of the district. Mandela Barnes defeated former Rep. Jason Fields in a primary where the school voucher program was the key issue. Rep. Fields was a big advocate of school vouchers and the issue led to his demise.

Assembly District 12

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+25
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 21,942 (81.04%)/ Romney 4,974 (18.37%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 20,844 (77.88%)/ McCain 5,676 (21.21%)
Swing: 6% Democratic
Trend: 12.97% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+34/D+23

Representative: Fred Kessler

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 1/11/1940
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Labor Arbitrator
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district has the smallest African American percentage of the six assembly districts at 51.1%. That percentage will most likely continue to go down as the decade continues.

[Talleyrand]

Notes: This district has the smallest African American percentage of the six assembly districts at 51.1%. That percentage will most likely continue to go down as the decade continues.

What exactly is going on there with the Black population?

[Gass3268]

Senate District 5

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
Three Largest Entities: Wauwatosa, West Allis and Brookfield
PVI: R+10.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 45,236 (43.04%)/ Romney 59,046 (56.18%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 48,316 (45.23%)/ McCain 57,134 (53.49%)
Swing: 4.88% Republican
Trend: 2.09% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/R+3.5

Senator: Leah Vukmir

Party: Republican
Last Election: Leah Vukmir 36,852 (52.15%)/ Incumbent Jim Sullivan 33,702 (47.69%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Wauwatosa
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: Marquette University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Masters)
Birthday: 4/26.1958
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Nurse Practitioner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is one of the first districts that were gerrymandered in the 2011 redistricting cycle. The old 5th Assembly District was predominantly a western suburban Milwaukee County district that only went into Waukesha County to pick up about 11% of the district. In the new district Waukesha County makes up 41% of the district. This effectively turned a good toss up district into a safe Republican district. Also all three Assembly Districts, which were previously centered in the major cities in the district (Wauwatosa, West Allis and Eastern Brookfield) with 2 held by the Democrats, were transformed into horizontal strips which resulted in all three becoming safely Republican.        

Assembly District 13

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
PVI: R+11.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,203 (41.55%)/ Romney 20,982 (57.34%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,263 (44.82%)/ McCain 19,573 (53.94%)
Swing: 6.67% Republican
Trend: 0.3% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/D+3.5

Representative: Rob Hutton

Party: Republican
Last Election: Rob Hutton 20,367 (60.5%)/ John Pokrandt 13,258 (39.4%) (Seat Flipped)
Obama Comparison: +2.17%  
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Brookfield
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 4/7/1967
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: Trucking CEO
Religion: Christian

Notes: This is now the center assembly district strip, consisting of Southern Brookfield, Elm Grove, Southern Wauwatosa and Northern West Allis. In the old map this district was centered in Eastern Wauwatosa and Western Milwaukee and was represented by  Democrat David Cullen for 23 years.

Assembly District 14

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,275 (42.82%)/ Romney 21,705 (57.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,142 (44.33%)/ McCain 21,113 (54.6%)
Swing: 4.02% Republican
Trend: 2.95% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11/R+11

Representative: Dale Kooyenga

Party: Republican
Last Election: Dale Kooyenga 20,976 (59.1%)/ Chris Rockwood 14,490 (40.8%)
Obama Comparison: +2.01%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Brookfield
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University  
Birthday: 2/12/1979
Place of Birth: Oak Lawn, IL  
Profession: CPA
Religion: N/A

Notes: Based on the numbers this district didn’t change. Geographically the district went from being centered in Eastern Brookfield and the far western parts of Wauwatosa to being the northern assembly district strip.  

Assembly District 15

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha
PVI: R+8.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,758 (45.09%)/ Romney 16,359 (53.61%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,911 (46.81%)/ McCain 16,448 (51.63%)
Swing: 3.7% Republican
Trend: 3.27% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+3

Representative: Joe Sanfelippo

Party: Republican
Last Election: Joe Sanfelippo 17,745 (58.3%)/ Cindy Moore 12,668 (41.6%) (Seat Flipped)
Obama Comparison: +3.48%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: West Allis
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University  
Birthday: 2/26/1964
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Landscaping business
Religion: Catholic

Notes: This district is the southern strip district. This district used to be centered in West Allies and was represented by Democrat Tony Staskunas for 16 years. Interesting thing about the redistricting is that it effectively removed the social conservative Democrats that were popular in the Western suburbs of Milwaukee County, such as Rep. Staskunas.

[Gass3268]

Notes: This district has the smallest African American percentage of the six assembly districts at 51.1%. That percentage will most likely continue to go down as the decade continues.

What exactly is going on there with the Black population?

I don't know what exactly is happening to the Black Community in Milwaukee, but I think its a similar occurrence to what's happening across the Rust Belt where Blacks are leaving and moving to Southern Cities.