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Gass3268
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« on: November 16, 2012, 10:51:45 PM »
« edited: September 21, 2018, 07:12:20 PM by Gass3268 »

I just wanted a place were I could post my maps and occasionally my opinion on matters.

My first map is comparing the percentages between President Obama and Congresswoman Tammy Baldwin in their respective races. Obama outperformed Baldwin in the red counties and Baldwin outperformed Obama in the green counties. The shades represent 1% interval's.

  

Some quick observations:
- Obama did better then Baldwin in her congressional district. This includes outperforming here by 2.02% in Dane County.
- Obama also did much better then Baldwin in the Driftless area of the Southwest part of the state. This makes sense as this is Tommy Thompson's home region, even though Baldwin won in most of these counties in this region. Big exception was Juneau County, were Thompson is from, were Obama did 5.58% better than Baldwin. He won the county while she lost it.
- Baldwin did much better then Obama up Nort (little bit of Wisconsin lingo, lol) and in the Minneapolis exurbs. Wondering if race had something to do this is difference or if it was more about their opinions on Obama's performance as President.    
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Gass3268
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« Reply #1 on: November 17, 2012, 03:13:55 PM »

- Obama did better then Baldwin in her congressional district. This includes outperforming here by 2.02% in Dane County.

And other than Racine/Kenosha, outperforming Baldwin in Paul Ryan's congressional district, too.

This is true, but Obama only did less then 1% better in each county that makes up Ryan's district and the same for Baldwin in Racine/Kenosha. My guess is the %'s would be close to the same in the district.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #2 on: November 18, 2012, 05:55:57 PM »

Here is the 112th Congress Caucus Map:

Key:
Dem 90% - Progressive Caucus
Dem 70% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition
Dem 50% - New Democrat Coalition
Dem 30% - New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 10% - Blue Dog Coalition
Dem 00% - Progressive Caucus & New Democrat Coalition & Blue Dog Coalition
Grey - No Caucus Membership
Rep 90% - Tea Party Caucus
Rep 70% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee
Rep 50% - Republican Study Committee
Rep 30% - Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 10% - Main Street Republican Partnership
Rep 00% - Tea Party Caucus & Republican Study Committee & Main Street Republican Partnership (Also one case of Tea Party Caucus & Main Street Republican Partnership, symbolized with a dot)    
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Gass3268
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« Reply #3 on: November 20, 2012, 01:27:06 AM »

I thought Dave Camp was a member of both the Study Committee and the Main Street Partnership.  And this is the old congressional district before redistricting.

I'm going off of the lists on wikipedia and he's not on either. Also what Miles said about the 112th Congress.

I missed them and I don't think it would work on this map. Also they have yet to make a huge impact yet, if they do in the future I'll add them.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #4 on: November 20, 2012, 01:52:30 AM »

Here is an identical map, but this time its Walker vs Johnson in 2010:


Some quick observations:
- Looking at this map, it appears that the Senate race made a bigger difference in the differences between Walker and Johnson   
- Feingold did much better then Barrett almost all over the state, but particularly in the Dirftless area and the Northwoods. If he could have ran a bit better in these parts, he could have made it a much closer race
- Johnson's best area was the Fox River Valley which is not surprising considering it's his home region
- No idea why Johnson did 2.05% better then Walker in Polk County while doing relatively worse in the other Minneapolis exurb counties     
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Gass3268
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« Reply #5 on: February 01, 2013, 12:54:44 AM »

I will be adding some maps and data on the Wisconsin State Legislature here soon!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #6 on: February 04, 2013, 10:27:56 PM »
« Edited: February 04, 2013, 11:07:34 PM by Gass3268 »

As I am about to start going through the Wisconsin State Legislature I need to make a few overall points:

- Each post will consist of a Senate District and its 3 corresponding Assembly Districts
- There will be some information, maps and pictures on the 4 districts and on the 4 Legislators
- I constructed the PVI of the different districts using the 2008 Presidential election and the average of the 2010 statewide races
- It should be noted that the maps made with DRA are not perfect because the application still uses the old ward lines which changed after redistricting, but they are as close as possible
- When I am done going through the current legislature, I will show how I would draw a fair, okay maybe a slight Democratic map, haha  
- Also I know that this is about statewide elections and we are in the congressional elections section, but I already had this thread going and I didn't want to make a new one  

Senate District 1 is coming up first!

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Gass3268
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« Reply #7 on: February 04, 2013, 11:02:49 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:32:42 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 1

Counties: Brown, Calumet, Door, Kewaunee, Manitowoc and Outagamie
Three Largest Entities: Western DePere, Southeast Appleton and Two Rivers  
PVI: R+4
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 44,717 (47.15%)/ Romney 48,892 (51.55%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 51,595 (53.8%)/ McCain 42,786 (44.62%)
Swing: 13.58% Republican
Trend: 6.61% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+4

Senator: Frank Lasee

Party: Republican
Last Election: Frank Lassee 43,415 (60%)/ Monk Elmer 28,800 (39.8%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Ledgeview
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly (Assembly District 2)(1995-2009)
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (1986)
Birthday: 12/11/1961
Place of Birth: Oceanside, California
Profession: Real Estate Broker
Religion: Christian

Notes: The districts for the Wisconsin State Legislature in the Fox Cities (Appleton Area) and the Fox River Valley (Green Bay Metro) are awful. Both areas get split into 4 different Senate Districts and then go off into more rural areas. I will provide cleaner lines for this area when I show and describe my maps after going through the current Legislature.

Yet it is crazy to think that this district actually become a half point more Democratic in redistricting after seeing the Obama numbers in 2012. I can’t see a Democrat winning here in the near future, especially in 2014. Also, one can see overall that Obama has done a better job in drawing voters then local Democrats have been able to in this Senate District and the 3 Assembly Districts.

Assembly District 1

Counties: Brown, Door, Kewaunee and Manitowoc
PVI: R+3.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,809 (49.38%)/ Romney 16,836 (49.46)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,513 (56.35%)/ McCain 13,884 (42.26)
Swing: 14.17% Republican
Trend: 7.2% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+1/R+0.5  

Represntative: Garey Bies

Party: Republican
Last Election: Garey Bies 16,993 (51.3%)/ Patrick Vesser 16,124 (48.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.73%
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: Sister Bay
Prior Offices: None
Education: Northeast Technical College
Birthday: 10/26/1946
Place of Birth: Manitowoc, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: Catholic

Notes: This would have been nice seat to gain in 2012. If only Obama could have done a little bit better here. His district probably won’t be competitive again until the next presidential race, as that is the only time Democrats perform well up in the Door County area.

Assembly District 2

Counties: Brown, Manitowoc and Outagamie
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,358 (45.49%)/ Romney 15,621 (53.2%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,503 (52.31%)/ McCain 14,507 (45.99%)
Swing: 14.03% Republican
Trend: 7.06% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+6

Representative: Andre Jacque  

Party: Republican
Last Election: Andre Jacque 17,082 (58.6%)/ Larry Pruess 12,033 (41.3%)  
Obama Comparison: +4.2%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: DePere
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (2003)
Birthday: 10/13/1980
Place of Birth: Beaver Dam, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: The City of Two Rivers in the eastern part of the district is a good Democratic base, but the conservative rural areas really drown it out. A democrat actually represented this district from 2009 to 2011 and he actually defeated the current State Senate Frank Lasee, but that was due in large part to Obama’s 2008 surge and was an extreme outlier for what usually happens here.

Assembly District 3

Counties: Calumet and Outagamie
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,550 (46.29%)/ Romney 16,435 (53.2%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,645 (52.31%)/ McCain 13,080 (45.99%)
Swing: 11.55% Republican
Trend: 4.58% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4/R+5

Representative: Alvin Ott

Party: Republican
Last Election: Alvin Ott 17,387 (58%)/ Kole Oswald 11,398 (38%)
Obama Comparison: +8.28%
Serving Since: 1987
Howntown: Forest Junction
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/19/1949
Place of Birth: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district also gets a bit more democratic, but a majority of the district is in Calumet County, which is traditionally very Republican. There is some Democratic strength in the Appleton and Menasha spillover as well as the Village of Kimberly, but there is not enough to make up what is going on in the rural area.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #8 on: February 05, 2013, 04:26:29 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:33:12 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 2

Counties: Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and Waupaca  
Three Largest Entities: Green Bay, Ashwaubenon, Allouez
PVI: R+5.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,768 (46.15%)/ Romney 47,662 (52.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,843 (52.33%)/ McCain 41,350 (46.19%)
Swing: 12.65% Republican
Trend: 5.68% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+5

Senator: Robert Cowles

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1987
Hometown: Green Bay, WI
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly (1983-1986)
Education: University of Wisconsin-Green Bay (1975)
Birthday: 7/31/1975
Place of Birth: Green Bay, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: Episcopalian

Notes: This is another one of those annoying Senate District that chops the Fox River Valley and Fox Cities into 4 different Districts. This district takes the western Green Bay Suburbs and then goes west taking most of Shawano County and most of northern Outagamie County.

This is very much a Republican district as shown by the fact that Senator Cowles won reelection unopposed in 2012. Obama may have won it in 2012, but that was an outlier.

Assembly District 4

Counties: Brown
PVI: R+4.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,629 (47.88%)/ Romney 16,718 (51.21%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,431 (52.27%)/ McCain 14,575 (46.37%)
Swing: 9.23% Republican
Trend: 2.26% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old):  R+4/R+4

Representative: Chad Weininger

Party: Republican
Last Election: Chad Weininger 16,029 (55.6%)/ Michael Malcheski 12,770 (44.3%)  
Obama Comparison: +3.6%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Green Bay
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: Cardinal Stritch University MBA (2004)  
Birthday: 2/7/1972
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: If this district starts voting more like the City of Green Bay, then maybe it could become competitive. Yet right now it is hard to see a Republican losing this.

Assembly District 5

Counties: Brown and Outagamie
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,321 (45.78%)/ Romney 16,559 (52.94%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,233 (53.7%)/ McCain 13,506 (44.68%)
Swing: 16.18% Republican
Trend: 9.21% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+3.5/R+3

Representative: Jim Steineke

Party: Republican
Last Election: Jim Steineke 16,117 (55.9%)/ Jeff McCabe 12,709 (44.1%)
Obama Comparison: +1.73%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Kaukauna  
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 11/23/1970
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This seat actually changed parties in 2010, but it would take a change in the political atmosphere of the State for this to get competitive again. Making things worse the district was made a half point more Republican.

Assembly District 6

Counties: Brown, Oconto, Outagamie, Shawano and Waupaca  
PVI: R+7
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,818 (44.46%)/ Romney 14,385 (54.12%)
2008 Presidential Election: 14,157 (50.94%)/ McCain 13,229 (47.6%)
Swing: 13% Republican
Trend: 6.03% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7/R+8.5

Representative: Gary Tauchen

Party: Republican
Last Election: Gary Tauchen 15,423 (59.4)/ John Powers 10,508 (40.5)  
Obama Comparison: +3.98%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Bonduel  
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: University of Wisconsin-River Falls (1976)
Birthday: 11/23/1953
Place of Birth: Rice Lake, WI
Profession: Businessman
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district got 1.5 points more Democratic, but considering this is mainly Shawano County, I don’t see this ever flipping in the near future.  
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Gass3268
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« Reply #9 on: February 05, 2013, 05:37:25 PM »

Thoughts on my series so far? Is there anything else you'd like to see me add to the posts? I'd love to here others thoughts!
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Gass3268
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« Reply #10 on: February 06, 2013, 09:56:42 PM »

What are the best pickup opportunities for Senate Democrats in the coming years? If they're guaranteed to lose Senator Lehman's seat next year, that would give them a baseline of 14 seats to start off with, I assume.

The Schultz seat would probably be a near gimme if he retired.  Pretty much all of the swingy seats are held by Republicans with the exception of Dave Hanson. 

One would think that 17th would flip to the Democrats if Schultz retired, but it should be noted that all 3 representatives in the Assembly from that district are Republicans. This area really likes Republicans on the local area, but will almost always support Democrats on statewide elections. It will be a close race when whenever Shultz retires, but it probably won't be competitive until he retires. The 19th, which is most of the Fox Cities, could be competitive whenever Michael Ellis retires. Other then that I don't see anymore competitive seats. Jim Holperin retiring pretty much makes the 12th un-winnable, redistricting took the 5th, 8th and 21st completely off the table, Jessica King was the best possible candidate in the 18th yet she still lost in a good 2012 environment and man of the districts that were lost in 2010 (23&29) are trending away from the Dems. I could see a permanent Republican Majority of 19-14 for the decade. Taking back the Governors Mansion in 2018 is going to be the only way to change this, baring an awful Republican Presidential administration starting in 2016.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #11 on: February 10, 2013, 06:51:25 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:35:39 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 3

Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, West Allis, and Greenfield
PVI: D+13
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,753 (69.04%)/ Romney 18,076 (29.89%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 38,066 (65.64%)/ McCain 19,059 (32.87%)
Swing: 6.38% Democratic
Trend: 13.35% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+10/D+7

Senator: Tim Carpenter

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Tim Carpenter 23,401(61.09%)/ Annette Krznarich 14,796 (38.36%)  
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (Masters)
Birthday: N/A
Place of Birth: St. Francis, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes:  The interesting to note about this Safe Democratic seat is that it contains the highest percentage of Hispanics in any Senate seat in Wisconsin. A majority of the Hispanics in Milwaukee is of Puerto Rican dissent, but the number of Mexicans in the city is growing.  Hispanics make up 40.5% of the district. That number is expected to grow larger in the future and could possibly become the plurality by 2020. I would guess that that next Senator from this district would be Hispanic.

Assembly District 7

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+2
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,372 (57.00%)/ Romney 11,957 (41.63%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,033 (56.44%)/ McCain 11,892 (41.86%)
Swing: 0.79% Democratic
Trend: 7.76% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+1/D+3

Representative: Daniel Riemer

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Uncontested (There was a write-in campaign by former Rep. Peggy Krusick, who lost to Riemer 2 to 1 in the primary, that failed miserably)
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Chicago
Birthday: 12/10/1986
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, Wisconsin
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is an interesting district as Daniel Riemer, 26 years old, was able to defeat Rep. Peggy Krusick at a 2 to 1 margin. I am surprised that the Republicans didn’t run a candidate in this district in the general election, as it is only D+1. This will be one to watch in 2014 as you have a young Freshman, running in a close district and there is probably still some bad blood from knocking out a 20 year incumbent.  

Assembly District 8

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+30
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 11,922 (86.64%)/ Romney 1,748 (12.7%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 9,644 (81.79%)/ McCain 2,019 (17.12%)
Swing: 9.27% Democratic
Trend: 16.24% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+27/D+28.5

Representative: Jocasta Zamarripa  

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 3/8/1976
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This Assembly District has the highest percentage of Hispanics in Wisconsin at 65.8%. Interesting historical fact is that this used to be a predominantly Polish area in Milwaukee. The make up of this district and the 9th was the result of the lawsuit Baldus et al  vs. Brennan et al. The court ruled that there needed to be one district were Hispanics could have a representative of their choosing rather then having the ability to influence two different districts.  

Assembly District 9

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+17.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,459 (74.81%)/ Romney 4,371 (24.30%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 12,389 (69.63%)/ McCain 5,148 (28.93%)
Swing: 9.81% Democratic
Trend: 16.78% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+15/D+12

Representative: Josh Zepnick

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Minnesota-Twin Cities (Masters)
Birthday: 3/21/1968
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This districting also has a fairly large Hispanic plurality at 47.8%. It would not be surprising if a Hispanic wins this district whenever Rep. Zepnick chooses to retire.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #12 on: February 11, 2013, 03:31:16 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:37:12 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 4

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+31
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, Shorewood and Glendale  
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 75,690 (86.12%)/ Romney 11,642 (13.25%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 71,776 (84.45%)/ McCain 12,545 (14.76%)
Swing: 3.18% Democratic
Trend: 10.15% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+33.5

Senator: Lena Taylor

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Lena Taylor 64,064 (86.1%)/ David King 10,154 (13.6%)
Obama Comparison: +0.04%
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ Southern Illinois University-Carbondale (J.D.)
Birthday: 7/25/1966
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Columnist and Lawyer  
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is one of the two African American senate districts in Milwaukee. African Americans make up a majority of this district at 58.3%.  It will be interesting to see what will happens to this district as the African American population in Milwaukee continues to decline.

Assembly District 10

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+35
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 29,006 (89.66%)/ Romney 3,111 (9.62%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 27,858 (89.72%)/ McCain 2,973 (9.58%)
Swing: 0.1% Republican
Trend: 6.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+38/D39.5

Representative: Sandy Pasch

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Shorewood
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison (Bachelors)/ Bioethics Medical College of Wisconsin & University of Rochester (Masters)
Birthday: 5/19/1954
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Nurse and Professor
Religion: N/A

Notes: There are six majority African American assembly districts in Milwaukee. This is one of them at 62.9% African American. Due to redistricting, the White Northeast Democratic leaning Milwaukee County suburbs were split into three in order to target Sandy Pasch for running against Senator Alberta Darling in the recall. Rep. Pasch chose to run in this district, which caused some controversy. The former Representative from the area, Elizabeth Coggs advised her voters to vote for someone that “looks like you.” This actually angered the voters of the district and Rep. Pasch won the primary in a landside.

Assembly District 11

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+31.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,742 (86.93%)/ Romney 3,557 (12.5%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 22,551 (84.66%)/ McCain 3,878 (14.56%)
Swing: 4.33% Democratic  
Trend: 11.3% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31.5/D+39

Representative: Mandela Barnes

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Milwaukee, WI
Birthday: 12/1/1986
Place of Birth:  Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Community Activist
Religion: N/A

Notes: Another Northside Milwaukee majority African American district. African Americans make up 60.4% of the district. Mandela Barnes defeated former Rep. Jason Fields in a primary where the school voucher program was the key issue. Rep. Fields was a big advocate of school vouchers and the issue led to his demise.

Assembly District 12

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+25
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 21,942 (81.04%)/ Romney 4,974 (18.37%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 20,844 (77.88%)/ McCain 5,676 (21.21%)
Swing: 6% Democratic
Trend: 12.97% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+34/D+23

Representative: Fred Kessler

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 1/11/1940
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Labor Arbitrator
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This district has the smallest African American percentage of the six assembly districts at 51.1%. That percentage will most likely continue to go down as the decade continues.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #13 on: February 11, 2013, 09:04:24 PM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:38:30 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 5

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
Three Largest Entities: Wauwatosa, West Allis and Brookfield
PVI: R+10.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 45,236 (43.04%)/ Romney 59,046 (56.18%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 48,316 (45.23%)/ McCain 57,134 (53.49%)
Swing: 4.88% Republican
Trend: 2.09% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/R+3.5

Senator: Leah Vukmir

Party: Republican
Last Election: Leah Vukmir 36,852 (52.15%)/ Incumbent Jim Sullivan 33,702 (47.69%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Wauwatosa
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: Marquette University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Masters)
Birthday: 4/26.1958
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Nurse Practitioner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is one of the first districts that were gerrymandered in the 2011 redistricting cycle. The old 5th Assembly District was predominantly a western suburban Milwaukee County district that only went into Waukesha County to pick up about 11% of the district. In the new district Waukesha County makes up 41% of the district. This effectively turned a good toss up district into a safe Republican district. Also all three Assembly Districts, which were previously centered in the major cities in the district (Wauwatosa, West Allis and Eastern Brookfield) with 2 held by the Democrats, were transformed into horizontal strips which resulted in all three becoming safely Republican.        

Assembly District 13

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
PVI: R+11.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 15,203 (41.55%)/ Romney 20,982 (57.34%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,263 (44.82%)/ McCain 19,573 (53.94%)
Swing: 6.67% Republican
Trend: 0.3% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+10/D+3.5

Representative: Rob Hutton

Party: Republican
Last Election: Rob Hutton 20,367 (60.5%)/ John Pokrandt 13,258 (39.4%) (Seat Flipped)
Obama Comparison: +2.17%  
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Brookfield
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Whitewater
Birthday: 4/7/1967
Place of Birth: N/A
Profession: Trucking CEO
Religion: Christian

Notes: This is now the center assembly district strip, consisting of Southern Brookfield, Elm Grove, Southern Wauwatosa and Northern West Allis. In the old map this district was centered in Eastern Wauwatosa and Western Milwaukee and was represented by  Democrat David Cullen for 23 years.

Assembly District 14

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha  
PVI: R+11
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,275 (42.82%)/ Romney 21,705 (57.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,142 (44.33%)/ McCain 21,113 (54.6%)
Swing: 4.02% Republican
Trend: 2.95% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11/R+11

Representative: Dale Kooyenga

Party: Republican
Last Election: Dale Kooyenga 20,976 (59.1%)/ Chris Rockwood 14,490 (40.8%)
Obama Comparison: +2.01%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Brookfield
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University  
Birthday: 2/12/1979
Place of Birth: Oak Lawn, IL  
Profession: CPA
Religion: N/A

Notes: Based on the numbers this district didn’t change. Geographically the district went from being centered in Eastern Brookfield and the far western parts of Wauwatosa to being the northern assembly district strip.  

Assembly District 15

Counties: Milwaukee and Waukesha
PVI: R+8.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,758 (45.09%)/ Romney 16,359 (53.61%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,911 (46.81%)/ McCain 16,448 (51.63%)
Swing: 3.7% Republican
Trend: 3.27% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+3

Representative: Joe Sanfelippo

Party: Republican
Last Election: Joe Sanfelippo 17,745 (58.3%)/ Cindy Moore 12,668 (41.6%) (Seat Flipped)
Obama Comparison: +3.48%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: West Allis
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University  
Birthday: 2/26/1964
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Landscaping business
Religion: Catholic

Notes: This district is the southern strip district. This district used to be centered in West Allies and was represented by Democrat Tony Staskunas for 16 years. Interesting thing about the redistricting is that it effectively removed the social conservative Democrats that were popular in the Western suburbs of Milwaukee County, such as Rep. Staskunas.
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« Reply #14 on: February 11, 2013, 09:22:14 PM »

Notes: This district has the smallest African American percentage of the six assembly districts at 51.1%. That percentage will most likely continue to go down as the decade continues.

What exactly is going on there with the Black population?

I don't know what exactly is happening to the Black Community in Milwaukee, but I think its a similar occurrence to what's happening across the Rust Belt where Blacks are leaving and moving to Southern Cities.
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« Reply #15 on: February 12, 2013, 02:41:50 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:41:12 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 6

Counties: Milwaukee
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee
PVI: D+33.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDD
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 77,993 (89.16%)/ Romney 9.336 (10.67%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 72.586 (87.26%)/ McCain 9,959 (11.97%)
Swing: 3.2% Democratic
Trend: 10.17% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+34.5/D+36

Senators: Nikiya Harris

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee  
Birthday: 2/22/1975
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Former nonprofit fundraising professional
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the second of the two African American majority districts. African Americans make up 60.5 % of this district. The western part of Downtown Milwaukee and Marquette University are in this district.  

Assembly District 16

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+36
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 25,647 (91.73%)/ Romney 2,548 (9.11%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 24,028 (88.97%)/ McCain 2,750 (10.18%)
Swing: 3.83% Democratic  
Trend: 10.8% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+37/D+35.5

Representative: Leon Young

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1993
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 7/4/1967
Place of Birth: Los Angeles, California
Profession:  Police Officer
Religion: N/A

Notes:  This district is 58.2% African American. The western part of Downtown Milwaukee is in this district which includes Marquette University and the Bradley Center.

Assembly District 17

Counties: Milwaukee  
PVI: D+30.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 27,549 (85.93%)/ Romney 4,329 (13.5%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 25,324 (83.8%)/ McCain 4,329 (15.39%)
Swing: 4.02% Democratic
Trend: 10.99% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+31/D+37.5

Representative: La Tonya Johnson

Party: Democrat
Last Election: La Tonya Johnson 20,288 (84.7%)/ Anthony Edwards (14.9%)
Obama Comparison: +1.2%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Tennessee State  
Birthday: 6/22/1972
Place of Birth: La Grange, TN
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is 60.4% African American. Not much else to say about this district.

Assembly District 18

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+35.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,797 (90.31%)/ Romney 2,459 (8.96%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 23,757 (89.64%)/ McCain 2,575 (9.72%)
Swing: 1.43% Democratic
Trend: 8.4% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+37/D+35

Representative: Evan Goyke

Party: Democratic
Last Election: Evan Goyke 16,276 (87.9%)/ Melba Morris-Page (11.6%)
Obama Comparison: +2.38%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: St. John’s University (Bachelors)/ Marquette Univeristy(J.D.)
Birthday: 11/24/1982
Place of Birth: Neenah, WI
Profession: Assistant Public Defender
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district is 63.2% African American. Another example of a white representative in a African American district. The Miller Brewery Factory is in this district.
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« Reply #16 on: February 13, 2013, 12:36:19 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:42:09 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 7

Counties: Milwaukee  
Three Largest Entities: Milwaukee, Oak Creek and South Milwaukee
PVI: D+5.5
Incumbent Party: D/DDR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 57,658 (59.23%)/ Romney 38,104 (39.14%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 59,905 (61.23%)/ McCain 36,236 (37.04%)
Swing: 4.1% Republican
Trend: 2.87 Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+6.5/D+8

Representative: Chris Larson

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Chris Larson 37,165 (57.11%)/ Jess Ripp 27,772 (42.68%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Milwaukee, WI
Prior Offices: Milwaukee County Board of Supervisors
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee
Birthday: 11/12/1980
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Sporting Goods Manager
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the white lakeshore Milwaukee district and it didn’t radically change much in redistricting. The Oak Creek is a conservative suburb but the other three suburbs in the district (Cudahy, South Milwaukee and St. Francis) are more Democratic normally but did go to the Republicans in 2010. Even with those conservative areas, the district is too Democratic for a Republican to ever win.

Assembly District 19

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+16.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 24,671 (69.66%)/ Romney 9,981 (28.18%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 26,494 (72.49%)/ McCain 9,315 (25.49%)
Swing: 5.52% Republican
Trend: 1.45 Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+20/D+18

Representative: Jon Richards

Party: Democrat
Last Election: Uncontested
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: Lawrence University (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Madison (J.D.)
Birthday: 9/5/1963
Place of Birth: Waukesha, WI
Profession: Teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is the Milwaukee lakeshore district. It also includes the eastern part of Downtown, the University of Wisconsin-Milaukee and the famous Summerfest Grounds.  

Assembly District 20

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: D+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 18,437 (58.4%)/ Romney 12,670 (40.13%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 18,510 (58.25%)/ McCain 12,706 (39.98%)
Swing: 0.1% Republican
Trend: 6.87% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): D+4.5/D+2.5

Representative: Christine Sinicki

Party: Democrat
Last Election:  Christine Sinicki 16,995 (57.5%)/ Molly McGartand 12,500 (42.3%)
OBama Comparison: +0.88%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Milwaukee
Prior Offices: N/A
Education: N/A
Birthday: 3/28/1960
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Small Business Manager
Religion: A/A

Notes: This district includes General Mitchell International Airport and two of the Southeast Milwaukee County suburbs of Cudahy and St. Francis. As long as Rep. Sinicki represents this district it will be safe for the Democrats, but it could be competitive in an open election.

Assembly District 21

Counties: Milwaukee
PVI: R+5.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,550 (47.92%)/ Romney 15,453 (50.9%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,901 (50.48%)/ McCain 14,215 (48.16%)
Swing: 5.3% Republican
Trend: 1.67% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+5

Representative: Mark Hondel

Party: Republican
Last Election: Mark Hondel 17,403 (59.3%)/ William Kurtz 11,921(40.6%)
Obama Comparison: +7.31%
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: South Milwaukee
Prior Offices: None
Education: Milwaukee Area Technical College
Birthday: 3/29/1956
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Industrial Manager
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is predominately an Oak Creek district along with South Milwaukee. Barring an open seat in a big Democratic year this is a safe Republican Seat.
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« Reply #17 on: February 15, 2013, 11:47:18 PM »

interesting thread. It's weird to me how each senate seat is divided into 3 house seats. In Michigan there all separate, there are 38 senate seats and 110 house seats. I think I prefer the Michigan way though. I might do something like this for Michigan for the 2014 elections. In Michigan all the State Senate is up every 4 years with the governor in midterm years (2010,2014). the state house is up every two years. So the state senate was elected under the 2000 redistricting and 2014 will be all new seats (but gerrymandered by the Republicans). The state house was up under new seats in 2012.

Interesting, I don't think I would like the Michigan system because I like the fact that there is constancy in who everyone in your Assembly district is voting for. It allows things to be less confusing to have the lower house districts in the upper house districts. Know I would say that I would prefer to have the Minnesota system of only having 2 House seats per Senate district, but to have more Senate Districts. Minnesota has 67 Senate seats and then 134 House seats, while Wisconsin has 33 Senate seats and 99 Assembly seats. Minnesota and Wisconsin have very similar populations, but Minnesotans get better representation in both the Senate and the Lower House.

Actually the African-American population of Milwaukee is growing. It was 37% in 2000 and 40% in 2010 (and the city as a whole grew slightly during that period so it's not a case of a smaller gross loss being a proportional increase).

My impression is that there is migration of African-Americans away from Chicago towards smaller cities in the region in general, so most cities within a few hours of Chicago have a growing Black population despite the general trend away from the Rust Belt towards the south.

Thanks for giving me the heads up on that. I just assumed that because all of the old African American districts had less then the necessary population before redistricting, that meant that they where going elsewhere. Should be interesting to see what happens if their % of the city continues to grow as the Hispanic population continues to grow as well.

I would certainly imagine those northwestern inner suburbs within the city to be getting Blacker still.
Beautiful thread; we need more like them.

We'll have to see, the only suburb in the county that has a substantial African American population is Brown Deer. Many of those other suburbs in that area have extremely high property values, so it could be difficult of the African American population to take off there. Also thanks for the compliment on the thread! Smiley
 
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« Reply #18 on: February 23, 2013, 03:59:40 AM »
« Edited: June 09, 2013, 06:18:34 PM by Mideast Minority Leader Gass3268 »

Senate District 8

Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha  
Three Largest Entities: Menomonee Falls, Mequon and Germantown
PVI: 12.5%
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 41,832 (40.83%)/ Romney 60,861 (59.40%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,856 (43.37%)/ McCain 59,895 (55.44%)
Swing: 6.5% Republican
Trend: 0.44% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+11.5/R+3.5

Senator: Alberta Darling

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 1993
Hometown: River Hills
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison
Birthday: 4/28/1944
Place of Birth: Hammond, IN
Profession: Teacher
Religion: N/A

Notes: This is another one of the Milwaukee area districts that went from being potentially competitive to totally out of reach for Democrats. In the prior map, this district included more of the northern reaches of the City of Milwaukee and almost all of the Northeast suburbs. This new district pulled farther out of Milwaukee County and more into the hardcore Republican suburbs. This is the seat that took forever to call in the first set of recalls because of Waukesha County's Kathy Nickolaus.    

Assembly District 22

Counties: Milwaukee, Washington and Waukesha
PVI: R+18.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,682 (34.76%)/ Romney 23,670 (64.88%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,068 (37.17%)/ McCain 21,676 (61.51%)
Swing: 5.78% Republican
Trend: 1.16% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+18.5/D+10.5

Representative: Don Pridemore

Party: Republican
Last Election: Uncontested  
Obama Comparison: Uncontested
Serving Since: 2005
Hometown: Hartford
Prior Offices: None
Education: Marquette University
Birthday: 10/20/1946
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: N/A

Notes: Another thing that happened in this district was that the Democratic Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs that made up the old 22nd were divided in two and given to the 23rd and 24th. This change was meant to target Rep. Sandy Pasch. The new 22nd moved to Southwest Washington County and Northeastern Waukesha County. One of the biggest partisan shifts for an assembly district and it is one of the first changes that I made in my map. Don Pridemore is currently running for State Superintendent.    

Assembly District 23

Counties: Milwaukee and Ozaukee
PVI: R+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 16,306 (42.36%)/ Romney 21,821 (56.69%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 17,158 (47.11%)/ Romney 18,872 (51.82%)
Swing: 2.56% Republican
Trend: 4.38% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+2.5


Representative: Jim Ott

Party: Republican
Last Election: Jim Ott 22,536 (62.2%)/ Cris Rogers 13,669 (37.7%)
Obama Comparison: +4.63%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Mequon
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Bachelors)/ University of Wisconsin-Milwaukee (Masters)/ Marquette University (J.D.)  
Birthday: 6/5/1947
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Professor
Religion: N/A

Notes:Has the Lakeshore part of the Northeast Milwaukee County suburbs. This area of the county will be fixed in my Wisconsin State Legislature maps. Went from a possibly competitive district to a safe Republican seat.  

Assembly District 24

Counties: Milwaukee, Ozaukee, Washington and Waukesha
PVI: R+9.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,902 (44.5%)/ Romney 18,259 (54.52%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,700 (45.52%)/ McCain 19,554 (53.29%)
Swing: 2.56% Republican
Trend: 4.38% Democratic
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+19

Representative: Daniel Knodl  

Party: Republican
Last Election: Daniel Knodl 20,932 (62.4%)/ Shan Haqqi (37.5%)
Obama Comparison: +6.97%
Serving Since: 2009
Hometown: Germantown
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 12/14/1958
Place of Birth: Milwaukee, WI
Profession: Resort Owner
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district becomes ten points less Republican, but it is still untouchable for any Democrat. Takes in the western part of the Northeastern Milwaukee County suburbs and goes up into Germantown and parts of Menomonee Falls.
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« Reply #19 on: February 24, 2013, 04:21:48 PM »
« Edited: June 10, 2013, 01:48:09 AM by Mideast Minority Leader Gass3268 »

Senate District 9

Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc and Sheboygan
Three Largest Entities: Sheboygan, Manitowoc and Plymouth
PVI: R+6.5
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,250 (45.87%)/ Romney 48,844 (53.03%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 45,938 (50.4%) McCain 43,790 (48.50%)
Swing: 9.59% Republican
Trend: 2.62% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+7.5/R+5.5

Senator: Joseph Leibham

Party: Republican
Last Election: Joe Leibham 45,663 (73.11%)/ Jason Borden 15,775 (26.86%) (2010 – Old Lines)
Obama Comparison: 2014 election
Serving Since: 2003
Hometown: Sheboygan
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Wisconsin-Madison  
Birthday: 6/6/1969
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: Account Executive
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: The one complaint that I have about this district is the split of Manitowoc and Two Rivers, with the later being in Senate District 1. You could exchange the Chilton area of Calumet County with Two Rivers and both districts would be better off. Another point to make is how much this area, especially Manitowoc County, has trended to Republicans over about the last 40 years. When Democrats won the state of Wisconsin between 1960 and 1996 they always won Manitowoc County and they always did decent in Sheboygan County. Now both counties are usually the last to go to the Democrats in a landslide scenario like Obama in 2008 and he still lost Sheboygan County by .65%.

Assembly District 25

Counties: Calumet and Manitowoc  
PVI: R+5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,782 (48.51%)/ Romney 15,201 (51.69%)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,004 (51.82%)/ McCain 13,445 (46.43%)
Swing: 10.22% Republican
Trend: 3.25% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+5.5

Representative: Paul Tittl  

Party: Republican
Last Election: Paul Tittl 16,287 (57.6%)/ Jim Brey 11,947 (42.2%)  
Obama Comparison: +4.64%
Serving Since: 2013
Hometown: Manitowoc
Prior Offices: None
Education: None
Birthday: 11/23/1961
Place of Birth: Delavan, WI
Profession: Owner of a Vacuum and Sewing Center
Religion: Christian

Notes: Due to the historical Democratic strength of this area, if there was a wave year I could see a Democrat winning this district. It should be noted that a Democrat did represent this district from 1993 to 2010. Robert Ziegelabuer became an independent that caucused with the Republicans from 2010 to 2013 due to issues he had with the Democratic leadership in the Assembly.    

Assembly District 26

Counties: Sheboygan
PVI: R+7.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 13,664 (45.05%)/ Romney 16,338 (53.86%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 14,973 (48.9%)/ McCain 15,165 (49.53%)
Swing: 8.18% Republican
Trend: 1.21% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/D+0.5

Representative: Michael Endsley

Party: Republican
Last Election: Michael Endsley 15,018 (51.3%)/ Mike Helmke 14,257 (48.7%)
Obama Comparison: -3.62%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Sheboygan
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Wisconsin-Platteville  
Birthday: 3/4/1962
Place of Birth: Sheboygan, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: As you can see on the map, the City of Sheboygan was split in two, which makes this district pretty much unwinnable. I am shocked to see how well the Democrat did here in the last election, but my guess is that’s the best one could do given how Republican the southern part of this district is.  

Assembly District 27

Counties: Calumet, Manitowoc and Sheboygan
PVI: R+6.5
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,804 (45.75%)/ Romney 17,305 (53.47%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,961 (50.56%)/ McCain 15,180 (48.09%)
Swing: 10.19% Republican
Trend: 3.22% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+8/R+10

Representative: Steve Kestell

Party: Republican
Last Election: Steve Kestell 18,101 (57.9%)/ 13,148 (42%)
Obama Comparison: +3.7%
Serving Since: 1999
Hometown: Elkhart Lake, WI
Prior Offices: None
Education: N/A
Birthday: 6/15/1955
Place of Birth: Lyndon, WI
Profession: N/A
Religion: Christian

Notes: This district got the northern half of the City of Sheboygan, which did cause this district to become two points more Democratic. This is still though unwinnable for the Democrats.  
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« Reply #20 on: February 25, 2013, 03:25:11 AM »
« Edited: March 23, 2013, 02:47:02 PM by Gass3268 »

Senate District 10

Counties: Burnett, Dunn, Pierce, Polk and St. Croix  
Three Largest Entities: Menomonie, River Falls and Hudson
PVI: R+6
Incumbent Party: R/RRR
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 42,328 (46.5%)/ Romney 47,919 (52.65%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 46,187 (50.42%)/ McCain 43,666 (47.67%)
Swing: 8.9% Republican
Trend: 1.93% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+6/R+6

Senator: Sheila Harsdorf

Party: Republican
Last Election: Shelia Harsdorf 51,911 (59.2%)/ Daniel Olson 35,728 (40.7%)
Serving Since: 2001
Hometown: River Falls
Prior Offices: Wisconsin State Assembly
Education: University of Minnesota-Twin Cities
Birthday: 7/25/1956
Place of Birth: St. Paul, MN
Profession: N/A
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: This is Wisconsin’s Twin Cities Metro Area district and like the far suburban/exurban areas in Minnesota, this district rapidly moved away from the Democrats since 2000. Carter, Dukakis and Clinton all preformed very strongly in this region of the state and Carter actually won this district in 1980 against Regan. Yet since then this district has rapidly swung to the right. It was the only large area of the state to trend against Obama in 2008 even though he did win it. It would take a major wave for a Democrat to come close.

Assembly District 28

Counties: Burnett, Polk and St. Croix  
PVI: R+9
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 12,833 (43.59%)/ Romney 16,093 (54.66%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 13,839 (46.97%)/ McCain 15,032 (51.02%)
Swing: 7.02% Republican
Trend: 0.05% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+9/R+8.5

Representative: Erik Severson

Party: Republican
Last Election: Erik Severson 15,865 (56.2%)/ Adam T. Bever 12,347 (43.7%)
Obama Comparison: +0.13%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Star Prairie  
Prior Offices: None
Education: University of Minnesota-Duluth (Bachelors)/ Mayo Medical School (M.D.)
Birthday: 2/3/1974
Place of Birth: Duluth, MN
Profession: Physician
Religion: N/A

Notes: Interesting note about this district is a Democrat actually served here for two terms and only lost out in the 2010 Republican Wave. So while the numbers don’t look great here, it is possible for a Democrat to win here, but it would probably take a 2006 like wave.  

Assembly District 29

Counties: Dunn and St. Croix  
PVI: R+4
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,615 (48.32%)/ Romney 15,052 (49.76%)  
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 15,525 (52.65%)/ Romney 13,379 (45.37%)
Swing: 8.72% Republican
Trend: 1.75% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+4.5/R+5

Representative: John Murtha

Party: Republican
Last Election: John Murtha 15,237 (55.8%)/ Jim Swanson 12,004 (44%)
Obama Comparison: +4.33%
Serving Since: 2007
Hometown: Baldwin
Prior Offices: St. Croix County Supervisor  
Education: Chippewa Valley Tech
Birthday: 8/8/1951
Place of Birth: Baldwin, WI
Profession: Self-Employed
Religion: N/A

Notes: This district could be potentially competitive whenever Rep. Murtha chooses to retire. The college town of Menominee and the swingy New Richmond could push the district to the Democrats under the right conditions.  

Assembly District 30

Counties: Pierce and St. Croix  
PVI: R+10
2012 Presidential Election: Obama 14,880 (47.49%)/ Romney 16,774 (53.53%)
2008 Presidential Election: Obama 16,823 (51.52%)/ McCain 15,255 (46.72%0
Swing: 10.84% Republican
Trend: 3.87% Republican
Change in PVI (New/Old): R+5/R+5

Representative: Dean Knudson

Party: Republican
Last Election: Dean Knudson 17,261 (55.8%)/ Diane Odeen 13,657 (44.1%)
Obama Comparison: +3.55%
Serving Since: 2011
Hometown: Hudson
Prior Offices: Mayor of Hudson, Hudson Alderperson
Education: North Dakota State University (Bachelors),  Iowa State University (D.V.M.)
Birthday: 4/29/1961
Place of Birth: Mayville, ND
Profession: Veterinarian
Religion: Lutheran

Notes: In a wave year this district too could be competitive as River Falls is a college town and Hudson will vote for the Democrat sometimes. Would probably need for Rep. Knudson to retire and have a wave year for that to happen though.  
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« Reply #21 on: February 25, 2013, 09:51:03 PM »

I just did the number crunching for SD-17, which is Shultz's district in the Southwest part of the state. He represents a D+3.5 district and there are 3 Republican Representatives that represent D+4, D+0.5 and a D+6.5 districts. If the Democrats are going to even try to get competitive in the legislature they need to take all for of these seats. There is no reason a Republican should be representing a D+6.5 district.   
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« Reply #22 on: February 25, 2013, 10:28:57 PM »

Wait a minute.  Why would a district where Romney only got 42% of vote be "competitive" for Republicans in 2014 while seats that gave Obama a percentage in the high 40's only be competitive for Democrats in a "wave" and with an open seat. 

It looks like AD-07 is trending Dem and is about D+6.  Republicans are not winning a seat like that even in a 2010 like envrionment.  Even Kerry probably won there for God's sake. 

Statewide this district is only D+2 and If you average the results of Walker and Johnson in 2010, the Republicans  actually won AD-07 by 1.6%. Local Democrats do tend to do better in this area of Milwaukee, but it is very much a working class/blue collar district and it wouldn't shock me if a Republican won here in a wave.
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Gass3268
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« Reply #23 on: February 27, 2013, 06:33:35 AM »

Why were Senate districts 3 and 7 drawn the way they were?

There are some Republican stranded in Assembly district 7 and a lot of liberals in Assembly district  19. These could be exchanged.

Assembly districts 7, 20, 21 total out to roughly a 55% Obama district.

That's an interesting point and I never thought about it that way. The only reason I could think as to why they didn't draw it that was appearance, as this new SD7 wouldn't look to pretty, and probably the precedent of having a Southern Milwaukee district and a Lakeshore Milwaukee district. If you look at the entire map, the legislature really didn't blow up or radically alter any of the Senate Districts, Assembly is a different story. 
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Gass3268
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« Reply #24 on: March 23, 2013, 12:59:21 AM »

Sorry for the delay on this project. I have been doing all of the calculations and add ups for all of the districts the past few weeks. I also went back and added the PVI's for each district, using 2008 and 2012 data, and I showed well the Democratic candidate compared to Obama's 2012 performance in that district.

Senate District 11 will be posted soon!
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