The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[RogueBeaver]

Hillary wouldn't have her not-so-Fab 4 of Penn/Wolfson/Solis Doyle/Tanden if she ran.

[Mr. Morden]

Hillary wouldn't have her not-so-Fab 4 of Penn/Wolfson/Solis Doyle/Tanden if she ran.

The most interesting line from that article is this:

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[Mr. Morden]

Santorum is returning to Iowa yet again, following the cancellation of his planned trip in April that he had to skip out on for health reasons.  In August, he'll "be the keynote speaker at the Lyon County GOP's fundraising dinner":

http://www.desmoinesregister.com/article/20130518/NEWS09/130518003/Possible-2016-GOP-presidential-candidate-Rick-Santorum-return-Iowa?nclick_check=1

[Mr. Morden]

Walker downplaying the significance of his trip to Iowa (of course he kind of has to):

http://www.thenorthwestern.com/article/20130519/OSH0101/305190148/Walker-downplays-visit-Iowa?gcheck=1

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[Mr. Morden]

Paul donates $10,000 to the NH GOP:

http://politicalticker.blogs.cnn.com/2013/05/20/first-on-cnn-rand-paul-donates-10000-to-new-hampshire-gop/

Schweitzer has a new job:

http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/post-politics/wp/2013/05/20/schweitzer-named-chairman-of-mining-company/

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[RogueBeaver]

Perry seems increasingly interested, but given the competition and last year's self-nuke don't see him getting far.

[Mr. Morden]

Perry seems increasingly interested, but given the competition and last year's self-nuke don't see him getting far.

It would be an interesting complication for Cruz's presidential ambitions though.

[Blue3]

Perry doesn't like Cruz, and campaigned against him in the primaries for being too conservative. (Yeah, PERRY thought this guy was too conservative!)

[Mr. Morden]

O'Malley appeared at a Washington fundraiser on Tuesday for Sen. Shaheen of NH, and will be back for a fundraiser for Senate candidate Bruce Braley of Iowa on June 12:

link

Sheesh, O'Malley.  You really do like being obvious about it, don't you? 

That column also notes that O'Malley raised more $ for Obama's reelection campaign last year than any other sitting Democratic officeholder.

[RogueBeaver]

Per Bob Costa, Ryan is co-writing a book with Bob Barnett, to be released next year. So he joins Jindal, Rubio and Walker in the Presidentiable Book Club. Still waiting on Paul and Christie.

It'll be similar to Jindal's L&C stylistically: part autobio, part policy/politics.

[nolesfan2011]

Elizabeth Warren has a book deal, slated to come out in 2014 http://ca.news.yahoo.com/sen-elizabeth-warren-book-deal-release-planned-spring-211049192.html

Dunno if this says anything or not but it certainly doesn't harm her odds of running.

[Mr. Morden]

Huntsman is starting a new PAC:

http://dyn.politico.com/printstory.cfm?uuid=811E56AC-D2BD-4E10-A4DA-EF451A116EEA

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Bush is making another trip to Michigan to promote his book:

http://www.mlive.com/news/grand-rapids/index.ssf/2013/05/jeb_bush_rumored_gop_president.html

Paul on deciding whether to run:

http://www.wdrb.com/story/22388008/rand-paul-speaks-out-about-possible-presidential-run

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[RogueBeaver]

Walker spoke at Iowa's Polk County dinner.

[Mr. Morden]

Paul says that he'll run for reelection for Senate in 2016 (though he's kind of already said that before):

http://www.ketknbc.com/news/rand-paul-announces-2016-campaign

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"The other decision" is of course the decision on whether to run for president in the same year.  But of course, as we've already gone over, Paul can't legally run for president and senate at the same time.  He can't even run in the primary for both at the same time.  So if he's running for Senate, then he's not running for president.  Unless he intends to run for president until late January 2016, then drop out to run for senate.  But that would kind of be "planning for failure" in the presidential race.

[Senator Spiral]

I apologize if this has been addressed, but I've heard rumblings that Paul could run for president in the other 49 states and just not put his name on the Kentucky presidential ballot and  have one of his staff or his wife appear as a placeholder for him. Would that allow him to run for both senate and president, and is that a realistic possibility?

That's one of the options he has, actually. Apparently there has also been discussion among Kentucky lawmakers to scrap the existing laws on running over there, so that may or may not transpire by the time that we get to the primaries.

[Reluctant Republican]

It occurred to me shortly after writing that that if Paul did get the nomination he'd be faced with the same problem of being unable to run for both offices. Assuming the law did not change, he'd be in a tough spot. I'm unsure how easily he could be replaced on the senate ballot.

[Mr. Morden]

I apologize if this has been addressed, but I've heard rumblings that Paul could run for president in the other 49 states and just not put his name on the Kentucky presidential ballot and  have one of his staff or his wife appear as a placeholder for him. Would that allow him to run for both senate and president, and is that a realistic possibility?

That's one of the options he has, actually. Apparently there has also been discussion among Kentucky lawmakers to scrap the existing laws on running over there, so that may or may not transpire by the time that we get to the primaries.

But is he actually in solid enough shape in Kentucky to get away with that?  IIRC, his job approval numbers are solid, but not fantastic.  Does the Kentucky GOP love him enough to let him indulge himself like that, running for both at the same time, potentially putting the seat at risk because of his shenanigans?  Or would they pressure him to pick one or the other?  (Or even primary him with someone who's actually running for Senate full time, rather than running around the country running for president?)

[Senator Spiral]

I apologize if this has been addressed, but I've heard rumblings that Paul could run for president in the other 49 states and just not put his name on the Kentucky presidential ballot and  have one of his staff or his wife appear as a placeholder for him. Would that allow him to run for both senate and president, and is that a realistic possibility?

That's one of the options he has, actually. Apparently there has also been discussion among Kentucky lawmakers to scrap the existing laws on running over there, so that may or may not transpire by the time that we get to the primaries.

But is he actually in solid enough shape in Kentucky to get away with that?  IIRC, his job approval numbers are solid, but not fantastic.  Does the Kentucky GOP love him enough to let him indulge himself like that, running for both at the same time, potentially putting the seat at risk because of his shenanigans?  Or would they pressure him to pick one or the other?  (Or even primary him with someone who's actually running for Senate full time, rather than running around the country running for president?)

That's what I can't say with absolute certainty. Although, I believe that the state GOP may be warming up to him now that he's nuanced more of his controversial views and has become a national star. It doesn't hurt that he's forged a strong alliance with leadership figures like Mitch McConnell in the Senate, who isn't popular statewide but who still has the backing of the establishment for his reelection campaign, so more lenience may be applied because of that.

[Mr. Morden]

Donald Trump is reportedly "thinking about running for president in 2016" (or at least spending money to make it look like he's thinking about it).  The NY Post says he's already spent $1 million on research related to helping him decide on whether he should run, and how he would run:

http://www.nypost.com/p/pagesix/trump_researching_run_YO6Qa9F3xQLS1UmLzQkKdJ

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[H.E. VOLODYMYR ZELENKSYY]

Trump/Cruz 2016!

[Mr. Morden]

Bachmann announces that she's retiring from the House in 2014 (also refers to the Arab Spring as an "evil earthquake"):

http://nbcpolitics.nbcnews.com/_news/2013/05/29/18578678-michele-bachmann-im-quitting-my-house-seat-in-2014?lite

As noted here some months ago....

Since dropping out of the 2012 presidential race, Bachmann has been busy with her reelection campaign for her House seat.  With that out of the way now, Politico reports "Republican sources said Rep. Michele Bachmann (R-Minn.) might want to fill the void on the religious right now".  But are these "Republican sources" suggesting that Bachmann herself has expressed interest in 2016, or just guessing that she might be interested?  Politico, why do you toy with us like this?

So, yeah, it's still unclear if Bachmann herself has any interest in another run, or if it's just idle speculation on Politico's part.

Meanwhile, Allen West says that he wants to make a political comeback of some kind in 2016.  Not 2014, but 2016:

http://www.sunshinestatenews.com/story/here-comes-allen-west-2016-though-its-destination-undecided

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Maybe he thinks Rubio will abandon his Senate seat to run for president, and West wants to run to replace him?  Or maybe he has bigger ambitions.  In that same story, the author notes that in last November, West noted that Abraham Lincoln ran for president after only having served a single term in the House.

Wouldn't that be a fun rainbow coalition of races and ethnicities that we might have running for the 2016 GOP nomination?: Rubio, Cruz, Jindal, Carson, West.

[Mr. Morden]

Not sure if this says anything about Christie's ambitions, but he hosted Obama to the NJ shoreline again, and won Obama a bear:

http://swampland.time.com/2013/05/28/chris-christie-wins-stuffed-bear-for-president-obama/

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Meanwhile, what kind of reception is the Obama-Christie relationship getting from conservative talk show hosts?  Rush Limbaugh describes the relationship as "master-servant":

http://www.huffingtonpost.com/2013/05/28/rush-limbaugh-obama-chris-christie_n_3349891.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Jeb Bush is again asked about 2016:

http://www.tampabay.com/blogs/the-buzz-florida-politics/jeb-bush-taking-time-on-2016-decision/2123659

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[RogueBeaver]

Unsurprisingly, the Romneys support Ryan.

[Mr. Morden]

Markell reiterates that he's backing Biden in 2016 rather than (as was rumored at last year's DNC) running for president himself:

http://tv.msnbc.com/2013/05/29/delaware-governor-im-a-biden-guy-for-2016/

Christie on 2016:

http://news.yahoo.com/blogs/ticket/6-things-people-teaches-chris-christie-1-thing-180406931.html

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