The "Who is running?" tea leaves thread

[Bull Moose Base]

Janet Napolitano is stepping down as Secretary of Homeland Security to become the president of the University of California system:

http://www.latimes.com/local/lanow/la-me-ln-uc-president-20130712,0,83979.story

A few months ago, Napolitano didn't rule out a future run for president:

http://washingtonexaminer.com/napolitano-doesnt-rule-out-2016-run-for-president/article/2525407

but as a sitting Cabinet secretary, was fairly restrained from openly campaigning for the job in the way that O'Malley and Santorum are today.

O'Malley's getting some buzz to replace Napolitano actually. Not sure if that's anything but I assume he'd take it if offered.

[Mr. Morden]

Clinton, though now just a private citizen, has a private staff that looks like the one she had when in public office:

http://thecaucus.blogs.nytimes.com/2013/07/12/hillary-clinton-private-citizen-and-public-persona-creates-a-transition-office/

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[Mr. Morden]

Cruz to visit New Hampshire:

http://trailblazersblog.dallasnews.com/2013/07/2016-watch-sen-ted-cruz-heading-to-new-hampshire.html/

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[Mr. Morden]

Politico mentions some potential candidates who are "starting to meet with donors":

http://www.politico.com/story/2013/07/2016-lame-duck-obama-2012-started-yesterday-94138_Page2.html

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[Mr. Morden]

I made a standalone thread on this, since the quote was so funny, but Perry, in being asked about another presidential run in 2016, said that "America's been a country of second choices", when he seemed to mean "second chances":

https://uselectionatlas.org/FORUM/index.php?topic=176342.0

[Mr. Morden]

Another one in the category of "this was announced two weeks ago, but I didn't notice it until now"....Allen West to visit NH:

http://www.wmur.com/political-scoop/former-florida-us-rep-allen-west-to-visit-nh/-/16254890/20787164/-/kca0t4z/-/index.html

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[Mr. Morden]

Deval Patrick was making a lot of moves in 2011 and 2012 that seemed to indicate presidential ambition, but late last year, he seemed to rule himself out.  He's now done so again, perhaps more emphatically (though the fact that the new head of his PAC wants him to run should raise some eyebrows):

http://therun2016.com/patrick-not-running-for-president-in-2016/

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[Mr. Morden]

Huckabee has made no moves indicating that he's interested in another run.  And in fact, he's become a potentially more toxic political figure just in the last year or two, for a number of reasons, most notably his vociferous defense of Todd Akin.  However, it looks like he's not ready to rule himself out completely just yet:

link

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[RogueBeaver]

Rubio and Paul will attend an NH fundraiser.

[Fuzzy Bear]

I have never seen as prohibitive favorite as Hillary Clinton on the Democratic side.  Most of these folks mentioned here will not run because no one, save a GOP contributor looking to sabotage the Clinton effort, would contribute to their campaign.  Except for Biden, of course; GOP sabateurs would love to see him make it tough for Hillary.

For the GOP, I see it as a contest between Rand Paul and Marco Rubio.  Watch where the money goes.  It could have been Paul Ryan, but he hitched himself to Mitt Romney's star and blew it.  Now the world sees that he can't carry Wisconsin.  Rubio and Paul will represent the final battle for long-term control of the GOP; traditional conservatives vs. libertarian conservatives.  And I don't think it will be close.  Rubio is the anointed front man for the traditional conservatives.  The GOP establishment will force Rubio on the party, one way or the other.  Watch. 

[RogueBeaver]

Rubio was warned by his own staff on immigration. Now he's #5 in Iowa and seen his national numbers nearly chopped in half.

[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar will be speaking at a fundraiser for Iowa Democrats next month:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/215906901.html

Not sure about this, but I think this might actually maker her the first prospective 2016er on the Democratic side to do an event in Iowa since the Nov. 2012 election.  Several of them (including Klobuchar) visited Iowa in 2012, helping to campaign for candidates there, but they've tended to steer clear of Iowa since November, in apparent deference to Hillary Clinton not to be seen as openly campaigning for '16 while Clinton is still thinking about it.....until now.

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[barfbag]

Rubio was warned by his own staff on immigration. Now he's #5 in Iowa and seen his national numbers nearly chopped in half.

I didn't know immigration was such a big deal in Iowa.

[Blue3]

Rubio was warned by his own staff on immigration. Now he's #5 in Iowa and seen his national numbers nearly chopped in half.

I didn't know immigration was such a big deal in Iowa.

Among the GOP base, it is everywhere.

[Mr. Morden]

Klobuchar will be speaking at a fundraiser for Iowa Democrats next month:

http://www.startribune.com/politics/blogs/215906901.html

Not sure about this, but I think this might actually maker her the first prospective 2016er on the Democratic side to do an event in Iowa since the Nov. 2012 election.  Several of them (including Klobuchar) visited Iowa in 2012, helping to campaign for candidates there, but they've tended to steer clear of Iowa since November, in apparent deference to Hillary Clinton not to be seen as openly campaigning for '16 while Clinton is still thinking about it.....until now.

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Looks like Hillary Clinton will be honored at this event with an award, but Clinton won't show up in person:

http://blogs.desmoinesregister.com/dmr/index.php/2013/07/17/amy-klobuchar-to-speak-in-iowa-in-august/article

[Mr. Morden]

Newsmax claims that Peter King is considering a presidential run:

http://www.newsmax.com/Newsfront/peter-king-presidential-bid/2013/07/17/id/515681

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[Mr. Morden]

Joe Biden on 2016:

http://www.gq.com/news-politics/newsmakers/201308/joe-biden-presidential-campaign-2016-2013?printable=true

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(Bolded part is an amusing quote.)

[RogueBeaver]

Ryan will be keynoting Branstad's birthday bash in November.

[Mr. Morden]

Peter King confirms that he's thinking about running for president.  He also lashes out at Cruz and Paul:

http://www.cbsnews.com/8301-250_162-57594447/gop-rep-peter-king-weighing-2016-presidential-run/

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[Maxwell]

*facepalm*

PPP should poll Peter King. I'd be surprised if he were anywhere above 1%.

[bballrox4717]

I don't think King will run or get much support, but this is the first real evidence our suspicions that neoconservatives will actively work to prevent a Paul presidency.

[Mr. Morden]

http://abcnews.go.com/blogs/politics/2013/07/ted-cruz-dismisses-talk-of-2016-presidential-bid-while-in-iowa/

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[RogueBeaver]

Karl said on This Week that he thinks Ryan will run.

[Blue3]

Karl said on This Week that he thinks Ryan will run.

Rove has no credibility. And he's only saying this to increase speculation for Ryan, hoping it pressures him to run.

Though expect the 47% issue, the abortion/rape issue, and all those other goodies from the 2012 race to come back full-force. As well as Ryan's budget. And his horrible debating and campaigning skills.

[Mr. Morden]

Karl said on This Week that he thinks Ryan will run.

Rove has no credibility. And he's only saying this to increase speculation for Ryan, hoping it pressures him to run.

I assume he means Jonathan Karl, not Karl Rove.