(Source: BBC The Wales Report)
Rhondda Assembly Election Results 1999 - 2011
1997 General Election: Lab 74% Plaid 13% Lib Dem 6% Con 4% Referendum Party 2% Green 1%
1999 Assembly Election: Plaid 49% Lab 41% Lib Dem 5% Ind 3% Con 3%
2003 Assembly Election: Lab 62% Plaid 27% Ind 4% Lib Dem 3% UKIP 2% Con 2%
2007 Assembly Election: Lab 58% Plaid 30% Lib Dem 7% Con 5%
2011 Assembly Election: Lab 63% Plaid 30% Con 5% Lib Dem 2%
In order to gain Rhondda, Plaid need a swing of 16.83%. I believe that this swing is too much for Plaid and as a result believe that the Liberal Democrats will be able to take advantage of this and plan a double attack. Firstly in Ceredigion where Elin Jones is the Assembly Member but only has a majority of 1,777 (6.11%) and secondly on the Mid and West Wales regional list where Simon Thomas is top of the Plaid list and only requires a 0.8% swing from Plaid to remove him from the Assembly (thus at a stroke removing the leader of Plaid from the Assembly and the two people most able to take over in the event of LeAnne resigning)
Those election results make me very sad
