UMP Death?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

One of the biggest political parties of the Western/Democratic World is collapsing and nothing about it here??

Ca part en sucette total

And apparently I've seen nothing on the UMP elections either, where everything began.

So, let's try to sum it the best possible:

On Sunday, elections of the new president of the UMP between Fillon and Copé, and of motions.

During all day, complaints from  both camps that irregularities took place.

At about 23h, Copé claims for victory.

About 30 mins later, Fillon does the same.

During all the Monday that followed, UMP's 'independent' electoral commission, the Cocoe, is working, at 22h45 it says Copé wins by 98 votes.

Fillon is very bitter but accepts the decision, saying that he won't contest it no matter all the irregularities that his camp denounces, he also gravely enough speaks about a 'political and moral fracture', but says that he doesn't want to endanger his political family so he won't go further.

Comes Tuesday, everything seems to go normal, the decision seems to become slowly accepted by more or less everybody, Copé makes his first intervention in the Assemblée Nationale as new leader, trying to make a big attack on PS, and in the evening he is interviewed on the biggest evening news in France, 20 of TF1. So far, you could think it would slowly calm down.

Comes Wednesday:

BREAKING NEWS!

14h30, Ciotti, Pécresse, Wauquiez, Fillon's big 3 big figureheads are in front of cameras:

3 overseas UMP federations, Mayotte, Wallis et Futuna, and Nouvelle-Calédonie, have been forgotten in the account, if we add them, then Fillon should win by 26 votes, instead of Copé by 98, and they say the president of electoral commission informally recognized it.

And then the mess actually began.

Fillon camp asks that the Cocoe adds the votes and that Fillon becomes president, and quickly latter that Juppé, as a neutral person and 'funding father' of UMP, takes a temporary lead of the UMP.

The president of the Cocoe says that his official work is over and that now they can only call for the UMP appeal commission.

Copé camp begins to be very pissed off, and says that they will recognize nothing but also a decision of UMP appeal commission.

Fillon camp says no way they go to the appeal commission, because this one is dominated by

Copé camp, his president is openly pro-Copé and one of its member was part of the Cocoe, so they consider this commission to be totally illegitimate.

134 UMP's MPs, former ministers, and other elected people say they support Fillon.

Then we were in the beginning of the evening, you already had all 24h news channels tunned on that, both camps fighting on TVs, tone becoming tougher and tougher. Fillon is announced to make TF1's 20h to tell more.

TF1's 20h:

Fillon shows tougher than ever, saying he renounces to the presidency of the UMP, but that he won't abandon one inch of his fight. He wants the 3 federations to be counted, he doesn't want the appeal commission, he wants Juppé to take the lead, and he says that if none of this happens then he will attack the UMP official decision in Justice (which is something violent given the extreme consequences it could have).

In the same time, on 2nd most popular French evening news, France2's 20h, you have Copé speaking, reacting live to Fillon threat to attack in Justice, saying that he couldn't believe it could happen.

Right then, I went back on the 24h news channels (in the afternoon I was on LCI, then I took itélé). Reactions of both camps go more and more violent, and a guy like Pierre Charon even went totally insulting in live, and this went till Midnight, when French non international news channels stop to broadcast in live. No solution found, situation blocked.

14h today, I switch my TV on, itélé, I feel like after one night of sleep maybe they would calm themselves down, and seems kinda the case. The Cocoe officially recognized its errors. Copé says he will take the appeal commission his-self, so that everybody can see he has win given this commission would show all irregularities of Fillon camp, and that Juppé could come as an observer of this commission. Juppé later says it could lead a new independent commission to monitor again all the vote as a whole. Fillon camp accepts it, Copé camps says he will think about it. So far you could think, yeah, they gonna calm down, that's the Right, and they are not used to internal democracy...

But, about 1 hour later, intervention of Landrieux, a close person of Copé, as an official intervention of Copé's presidency, and now the fight went still tougher.

He says that the appeal commission can be the only way to go, and then he began to present to live cameras all a serie of document as proof of some major frauds of Fillon camp, notably because of Ciotti in Alpes-Maritimes, the nasty fight begins. But, at the end of this, he also says, ok, after the appeal commission gives its decision he accepts a Juppé commission can work on the results of its work, and only after all of this happens, they will recognize the decision of Juppé commission no matter what it is.

So then you can still think, wow, they finally accept Juppé, one more reason that it could calm down.

But!

Fillon camp reaction: no way the appeal commission intervenes, no matter before or after Juppé, just no way, we just don't trust it at all.

Few mins later, goes still touguer, Ciotti announces he would attack Landrieux in Justice for the accusations he had against him about the situation in Alpes-Maritimes.

Juppé gave an ultimatum for his proposal of new independent commission, after 20h it's over, he says he refuses to be instrumented all along, and also said in a press conference that a split of the UMP could become actual, which is something evoked for 24 hours but that didn't prevent both camps to go tougher.

Fillon could make a statement after this ultimatum is over, and very important, he could make it in the name of about 80-100 MPs, some MPs, that could officially break from UMP official Parliamentary group, if ever this happens it could officially be the 1st step to an official split of the UMP and then of the death of this as the biggest party of the French Right.

So, to try to sum the possible hypothesis the best possible, after 20h:

- They find an agreement to go further thanks to a Juppé commission.

If not:

- Fillon announces they go in Justice (and given it could take several month and that it would include more and more tough fights, it could also be a 1st step toward the end of UMP)

- Fillon announces the break of the UMP MPs

Or anything I can't think about right now.

It's 19h, are you ready to see the death of one of thee major political parties of the Democratic World...?



21 Avril 2012
21 Novembre 2012?

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...read everything? followed everything?

Very important information to complete all of this:

MPs have till the 30th of November to tell to which political group they belong within the Assemblée Nationale, it is very important because it will determine to which party the money they earned thanks to their election will be versed, if the MPs who support Fillon fear that Copé could definitely have this money, they will have to break before the 30th.

...LAST BREAKING!

Juppé considers that according to their statements it seems that both camps have accepted his proposal. Which wasn't so clear given Fillon camp says it refuses it happens after the appeal commission, and Coppé maintains they want this commission, let's see then...

Frankly, since yesterday, I don't know what to think, that's totally unusual for the UMP, and symptomatic about so many things about the UMP, the French Right, the French political situation and institutions, and even about our society generally speaking, lot of develop about that, but so far it's more intense to follow than a football match! The situation seems to take a new direction every 30 mins!

Ah, and, the most ironical obviously being Sarkozy that could be prosecuted today...

[Edu]

One of the biggest political parties of the Western/Democratic World is collapsing and nothing about it here??

Ca part en sucette total

And apparently I've seen nothing on the UMP elections either, where everything began.

It was an interesting read but most of it is already covered in the UMP election thread in the International Elections subforum

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

One of the biggest political parties of the Western/Democratic World is collapsing and nothing about it here??

Ca part en sucette total

And apparently I've seen nothing on the UMP elections either, where everything began.

It was an interesting read but most of it is already covered in the UMP election thread in the International Elections subforum

lol, thanks.

Could still be a place to discuss the total renewal of the French political Right. Lots happening.

[Antonio the Sixth]

Not gonna happen.

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

I'd say it all belongs to Juppé's hands right now, it's short, but maybe they can still save it...

Tonight I heard Morin saying UDI registered about 4.000 new inscriptions on Internet during those last 4 days, earlier I read something about Borloo saying they registered 1.200 new ones for the last night only.

Yesterday, I also heard Fillipot (FN/RMB) saying that they registered 500 new ones during Sunday night still on Internet.

And I guess it's needless to add that MLP currently has a laaaaaaaaaaaaaaarge smile when she speaks about all of this. Still same for Borloo indeed.

Sarkozy has effectively let this totally devastated, it's been mainly built by and for him, so nothing surprising here.



4 pics summing the situation about what's going on in French political Right lately:





Founding meeting of the UDI, center-right party led by Borloo, with Yade and Jouanno as main figure-heads, shows as a kind of renewed and more dynamic UDF, has a very refreshing and rather appealing image so far in the landscape, and this before all this mess in the UMP.





Florian Philippot putting some flowers on De Gaulle grave lately.

Something totally unusual for someone in 'FN', which has been mainly built by, amongst other things, an opposition to De Gaulle about Algeria. He said he did it 'as a personal move only engaging himself', but you haven't seen MLP choked by that, even if she confirmed it didn't engage FN.

Overall it totally fits what FN becomes, something that wanna be more and more consensual, while trying to stay the most radical possible notably against immigration, Europe, and globalization.

MLP also recently said she's officially creating the Rassemblement Bleu Marine, but it's not sure whether it would replace FN in the end or only become a new banner to gather most people possible, notably those who don't want to have the very dirtied 'FN' label, Collard, the other new big figurehead around MLP with Philippot, for example claims he's Marinist, but doesn't want to belong to FN. This happens after MLP constantly tries to clean FN, 2011 has notably been a year during which she hunted a lot of skinheads or guys who made dirty old anti-semitic jokes, all the good old dirty FN.

The most amusing of all of this is seeing that one of her main enemy is kinda her father, the most she grows and tries to become more consensual, the more he tries to shoot on her, notably saying she's only a petite bourgeoise who knows nothing about life, while he says he's a son of sailor who knew hard life, or that the RBM is something for mild guys, the tough ones are in the good old FN. Poor Marine, it seems sometimes one of her main goal was to rehabilitate his father which has been demonized during decades by about 80% of the French population, and now he shoots on her...

He really shows what he has only ever been, a pure provoker...

Claude Chabrol, a now dead but famous and rather good French movie maker, who studied with Le Pen during his youth, would have said that people don't give a clue about what he is, people would have given him a little state secretary at one point and he would have shut up. A recent biography, made by rather serious guys, is also pointing out that he would have had some 'mannish very close friendship experiences' during his youth if you know what I mean, lol, and also that his anti-semitic stuffs would have only began after some Jew organizations began to curse him, before he didn't care much about it...

In short, nowadays, given the large route that UMP is opening, the main enemy of the new FN and of its new president, is the old FN and its old president...





The glorious 'Bloc Identitaire' at work...

I follow those guys for a while now, and always believed they could grow, they keep making the most media coup they can.

Here they decided to occupy the roof of the new mosque of Poitiers a few weeks ago (iirc it was circa all the fuss about 'Innocense of Muslims'. Poitiers is very symbolic, you can see 732 on the pic, 732 is the year on which Charles Martel is supposed to have stopped the Arabic invasion of France and then of Europe in Poitiers (there still are history debates about that, but that's what all little French have been taught for decades), so what they did can touch a lot of people symbolically, it became the biggest media coup they ever did, preceding big one having been the 'apéro saucisson pinard', which was about making some big gatherings in some places where mainly Muslims live and drinking red wine and eating saucisson (dry pork sausage) there, indeed provoking Muslims the most they could, once again, they know what can touch people symbolically, here it was very well seen too.

That are mainly some bands of white young guys very militant, quite ideologized, not so much shallow intellectually, who mainly focus about the issues of cultural identity, that are not the good old dirty skinheads, some look like the perfect sons-in-law, they have quite modern attitude and way to speak, they are just totally reactionary to rather hateful when it comes to cultural identity and all the political issues that can go around it.

They could replace the good old disappearing traditionally militant FN, especially now that MLP tries to consensualize it to spread the widest possible.

They are not much into elections so far, mainly militant groups, of which the most active are in Lyon, Nice, they're also well connected to the mayor of Orange (once in FN), where they seem to organize a regular national meeting there, surprisingly they seem to be well present in Toulouse too, I'm not sure but seems they could try to benefit about all the cultural activism going on in the region about the issues of cultural regionalism notably here. Indeed they'd be quite present in Paris too.

They tried to have a candidate to last presidential elections, the president of their movement, I don't remind his name, but he looks like most of those activists, quite clear, cold-blooded, and serious, doesn't look like an excited extremist (which isn't necessarily a good sign, maybe it's even worse) but they couldn't apparently, maybe the new rules that could take place for next elections if Jospin proposals about that are retained could help them, it could be 150.000 signatures of citizens instead of 500 sigs of elected people, his very militant movements might manage it.

So far, they say MLP's new FN is too mild to them, and MLP didn't try to get closer to them so far, she doesn't really need it, just like Jean-François Copé is doing, those guys are working for her without she has to do the slightest thing, so far she is on the perfect wave.



And last...

[Bunwahaha [still dunno why, but well, so be it]]

...but not least, the one which is mainly busying us right now (and also put in an other post because it reached more than 11.000 signs , you're reading everything?? enjoy then):




Copé, the day he spoke about his 'pain au chocolat', during a meeting for UMP president elections in Draguignan. People spoke about that on the forum?

Was something.

After having campaigned for Marine Le Pen during several months in order to be elected by UMP militants as president of the party, he reached the peak with that. In short he said in a very offended statement as if it was spreading fire all over France, of 'those parents who find their kids totally desperate once they come back home after work, because those kids would have been violently attacked by some young Muslims and stolen their pain au chocolat (chocolate bread) because those Muslims don't want people to eat during Ramadan...

There can be cultural problems with a minority of Muslims here and there, but outside of the fact that it remains a minority, we never had heard about that!

Indeed most people laughed of him, I personally thought, wow, t'es totalement parti Jean-françois là..., but when Le Petit Journal (satiric stuffs, kinda like American late shows, they can be half stupid, but sometimes they show quite worthy stuffs) cams went to interview UMP militants during Copé meetings then, you could here them saying 'we never heard about that, but if he says it, it must be true...', and then later, after several other excited meetings of JFC about all those kinds of stuffs, you could see those militants saying that 'yeah, he got it, that's really the true problems, I'm not racist you know, but foreigners are better in their country, you know, it's like in the 40s, you know the occupation, it was Germans, but now you know who it is, and they are all lazy moreover, and who are paying for this, our taxes, you know...' and all those so classical so charming 'you know...'. And indeed, the most people laughed or criticized Copé's campaign the most he tried to go further and showed as the guy who 'denounces the truth that the good old elite doesn't want to hear about but true people on the ground know what the truth is...', the good old classical attitude (crazy how stupid things can so easily repeat themselves over and over...).

In the same time, you had the over tired Fillon, several times injured during the campaign (1st broke his foot, then some kidney stone operation, lol, poor him...) who made a totally invisible campaign, trying to embody a sane UMP unlike the totally décompléxée one of JFC.

And then, there you go, it finished with all the mess that I tried to paint here that began on Sunday night, and that only began to calm down a very few hours ago, by people accepting new Juppé commission to try to find the best outcome to all of this.

So you have a new refreshing center-right force, UDI, embodied by Jean-Louis Borloo, a new far-right force, FN/RMB, embodied by Marine Le Pen, and in between, what's left of the UMP since Sarkozy's defeat, a totally rocking boat taken in a big storm without the slightest compass, or worse with 2 captains with totally different compasses.

One, Fillon, kinda embodying what's left of the traditional Gaullist/RPR force, very French traditional right, rather sane, but without much vision and dynamic since they lost Sarkozy.

The other one, Copé, embodying which I would call the modern ways to do politics, making permanent agitation, focusing on communication rather than on ideas and project, and who are able to follow any kind of populist stuffs as long as they feel it's the good wind. Copé perfectly embodies it, a big centrist like Raffarin, who's part of Copé camp, is also someone who is full of communication, Morano who can be painted as clueless about anything is an other one, amongst others, each one with its own style. Not necessarily nasty people, just rather unconscious ones without much political depth I'd say, taken in the crazy circus of politico-media permanent agitation.

And all of this in a political party that wasn't used at all to internal democracy, who used to be govern by one big chief who dominated all the other ones, and suddenly they lost one of the biggest they ever had, and this in an epoch where people ask for more and more democracy and transparency.

Thus you have this UMP, which has moreover mainly been created by and for this last big leader who suddenly disappeared, Sarkozy, who is someone who managed to ally those both parts, he has been able to make believe he could ally the traditional ideology of the French classical Right to the modern ways to make populism? politics, and all of this with a lot of charisma. But once you remove the last main tie you had between those both parts, then the ship is totally lost in the storm, taken between 2 growing dynamic forces, of which the last tie that succeeds to keep it united is only an historical tie, and only one man, its founding father, Alain Juppé. One more time it's short, but who knows what can happen...

Anyhow, all of this shows how the the situation is totally upside down for the political Rights in France, and shows that a lot of things could be possible.

And could also show how the political system in which we are living is less and less...'relevant'? Is that random that it happens while the economical system in which we are living is also less and less...'relevant'? And also while the cultural productions are less and less...'dense'? Is that also random that it happens while some other parts of the world are making some very 1st steps into democracy, some steps that could, who knows, in the end lead them to deeper and denser schemes than those in which we are living? Is that also random that it happens while some other parts of the world are step by step gaining economical power while we are losing some?

Woohoo!

Ok, too many questions, back to the 'fancy' French political Rights.

So, let's just see if Gaullisme can resist to XXIst century...

Juppé commission would give a 1st answer in the coming days...

[RogueBeaver]

An FN splinter group. Wow.

[Zanas]

An FN splinter group. Wow.

You know, when it comes to political splintering, the far-right comes close second only to the trotskyists...