NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[traininthedistance]

My vote (in the primary and the general) goes to whoever pledges to keep on the FF in my signature. 

If nobody wants her, and it looks like nobody does at the moment, then I'm not quite sure what I'll do.

Who is the FF in your signature?

The Transportation Commissioner. Big on green environmental stuff.

Indeed.

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Janette_Sadik-Khan

[Keystone Phil]

I read on PoliticalWire yesterday that Rendell was being suggested by some of Bloomberg's aides. I figured it was a half joking suggestion (and it probably still is) but the Philadelphia Daily News picked it up this morning. It's the cover story.

For the record, Rendell is originally from NYC.

[Maxwell]

I'd prefer Ed Rendell to most of the people that they're actually thinking about (Especially Quinn).

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

From over on the 2016 board:

We should just accept it now. Hillary Clinton, 45th President of the United States.

Although, this thread will be funny if she doesn't run or runs for mayor or something.

Granted, it was just an idle thought, but if for some strange reason, Hillary decided she wanted the job, how tough would it be for her to get it?

[CatoMinor]

From over on the 2016 board:

We should just accept it now. Hillary Clinton, 45th President of the United States.

Although, this thread will be funny if she doesn't run or runs for mayor or something.

Granted, it was just an idle thought, but if for some strange reason, Hillary decided she wanted the job, how tough would it be for her to get it?

Has Hillary ever even lived in NYC?

[Paul Kemp]

From over on the 2016 board:

We should just accept it now. Hillary Clinton, 45th President of the United States.

Although, this thread will be funny if she doesn't run or runs for mayor or something.

Granted, it was just an idle thought, but if for some strange reason, Hillary decided she wanted the job, how tough would it be for her to get it?

It would be pretty easy I imagine. Bloomberg apparently tried to convince her to run a few weeks (months?) ago.

[hopper]

Koch-Giuliani-Bloomberg tradition

Gibberish.  Giuliani is one of the worst mayors NYC has had in the past 50 years, whereas Bloomberg is arguably the best since LaGuardia.

EDIT:  Somewhat embarrassingly, I don't know enough about Ed Koch's term to pass judgment.

Bloomberg is good except for the soda ban thing.

[hopper]

I'd prefer Ed Rendell to most of the people that they're actually thinking about (Especially Quinn).

Well Rendell does have big city mayoral experience since he was the Mayor of Philly. Just a hypothetical question: would he actually qualify on the ballot if he did run for Mayor of NYC?

[traininthedistance]

Koch-Giuliani-Bloomberg tradition

Gibberish.  Giuliani is one of the worst mayors NYC has had in the past 50 years, whereas Bloomberg is arguably the best since LaGuardia.

EDIT:  Somewhat embarrassingly, I don't know enough about Ed Koch's term to pass judgment.

Bloomberg is good except for the soda ban thing.

I get what he was trying to do, but yeah, a Pigouvian surtax would have been better in just about every way.

[CatoMinor]

http://www.nypost.com/p/news/local/gop_eyeing_mayor_malcolm_SUprNv2u1ro3ap5g0yHgjK

Is this really a possibility lol?

[justfollowingtheelections]

He wouldn't win even if he ran against Alec Baldwin.

[osideguy92]

My predictions:

Christine Quinn vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
John Liu vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill Thompson vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D

Christine Quinn vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
John Liu vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D/Likely D
Bill Thompson vs. Joseph Lhota: Likely D

Christine Quinn vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt D
Bill de Blasio vs. Ray Kelly: Pure Toss-up
John Liu vs. Ray Kelly: Lean R
Bill Thompson vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt R

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

My predictions:

Christine Quinn vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
John Liu vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill Thompson vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D

Christine Quinn vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
John Liu vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D/Likely D
Bill Thompson vs. Joseph Lhota: Likely D

Christine Quinn vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt D
Bill de Blasio vs. Ray Kelly: Pure Toss-up
John Liu vs. Ray Kelly: Lean R
Bill Thompson vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt R

I think John Liu is completely unelectable. But then, he'll never make it through the primary.

[Keystone Phil]

Lhota more of a threat than Kelly? - http://newyork.cbslocal.com/2013/01/18/pundit-if-anyone-scares-the-new-york-city-democrats-its-joe-lhota/

[Mr.Phips]

My predictions:

Christine Quinn vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
John Liu vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D
Bill Thompson vs. John Catsimatidis: Safe D

Christine Quinn vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
Bill de Blasio vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D
John Liu vs. Joseph Lhota: Safe D/Likely D
Bill Thompson vs. Joseph Lhota: Likely D

Christine Quinn vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt D
Bill de Blasio vs. Ray Kelly: Pure Toss-up
John Liu vs. Ray Kelly: Lean R
Bill Thompson vs. Ray Kelly: Toss-up, Tilt R

I dont think any race would be Tilt-R or more unless Bloomberg or Giuliani were the nominee or possibly against John Liu.  This is a city that went 81% for Barack Obama, making it around D+30.

[Fmr. Pres. Duke]

I'm just shocked Bloomberg didn't pay again to get the law amended so he could become king of New York.

[Peter the Lefty]

God, this is sad that Quinn is such a shoe-in.  Blasio for Mayor!

[seanNJ9]

Quinn is an interesting case for Progressives. A lesbian, but tied herself to Bloomberg.

[seanNJ9]

I'm not very familiar with Quinn's politics, but other than supporting Bloomberg's plan to extend term limits, what about her do NYC liberals not like?

[Lupo]

I'm not very familiar with Quinn's politics, but other than supporting Bloomberg's plan to extend term limits, what about her do NYC liberals not like?

Her pragmatism.  Her tenure running the Council leads many to believe as Mayor she wouldn't be a progressive hero like the other Dems.

[Benj]

I'm not very familiar with Quinn's politics, but other than supporting Bloomberg's plan to extend term limits, what about her do NYC liberals not like?

Her pragmatism.  Her tenure running the Council leads many to believe as Mayor she wouldn't be a progressive hero like the other Dems.

There's a flip side to it, too. A lot of the pragmatic liberals and centrists who voted for Obama but like Bloomberg are suspicious that Quinn is more in bed with certain special interests (notably the rent regulation crowd, but also some of the more problematic unions, etc.). There's just suspicion on both sides, and in my mind properly as Quinn has never really staked out a strong ideological position on most issues. She's very much a politician. But that also makes her difficult to oppose, both in a primary (because she's never really taken a stand against any major left-wing interest group that would give someone like Bill de Blasio traction) and in the general (because she's not obviously offensive to various centrist voters, and also the center-right options are bad candidates for various reasons).

Term limits is basically not an issue to anyone these days except as an excuse to hate Bloomberg.

Anyway, strongly disagree that Ray Kelly is the strongest Republican candidate. I actually think he's the weakest, weaker even than Catsimatidis. Strong policing is not a viable basis for a political campaign in NYC any more, and the liberal love-fest for the police under Giuliani has quite completely disappeared. Ray Kelly is a very good candidate for Staten Island, southern Brooklyn, Howard Beach, Whitestone and Country Club (and as a result I think he'd romp home in the Republican primary if he ran). But it's been a decades since the white conservative vote was enough to win city-wide, and Kelly has basically no hope of breaking into any minority voting bloc or into white liberals. Bloomberg and Giuliani were winning in places like the Upper West Side, Chelsea, and Park Slope. I can't imagine Kelly even breaking 40% in any of those places, except against Liu (who is very weak as a candidate but also has no real chance to win the nomination), while I can see those places continuing to break ranks for a technocrat like Lhota or even a businessman like Catsimatidis if their campaigns ran very well.

[Lupo]

I'm not very familiar with Quinn's politics, but other than supporting Bloomberg's plan to extend term limits, what about her do NYC liberals not like?

Her pragmatism.  Her tenure running the Council leads many to believe as Mayor she wouldn't be a progressive hero like the other Dems.

There's a flip side to it, too. A lot of the pragmatic liberals and centrists who voted for Obama but like Bloomberg are suspicious that Quinn is more in bed with certain special interests (notably the rent regulation crowd, but also some of the more problematic unions, etc.). There's just suspicion on both sides, and in my mind properly as Quinn has never really staked out a strong ideological position on most issues. She's very much a politician. But that also makes her difficult to oppose, both in a primary (because she's never really taken a stand against any major left-wing interest group that would give someone like Bill de Blasio traction) and in the general (because she's not obviously offensive to various centrist voters, and also the center-right options are bad candidates for various reasons).

Would you agree with this ranking in terms of who's the most progressive candidate?:

1.  de Blasio
2.  Liu
3.  Thompson
4.  Quinn

Anyway, strongly disagree that Ray Kelly is the strongest Republican candidate. I actually think he's the weakest, weaker even than Catsimatidis. Strong policing is not a viable basis for a political campaign in NYC any more, and the liberal love-fest for the police under Giuliani has quite completely disappeared. Ray Kelly is a very good candidate for Staten Island, southern Brooklyn, Howard Beach, Whitestone and Country Club (and as a result I think he'd romp home in the Republican primary if he ran). But it's been a decades since the white conservative vote was enough to win city-wide, and Kelly has basically no hope of breaking into any minority voting bloc or into white liberals. Bloomberg and Giuliani were winning in places like the Upper West Side, Chelsea, and Park Slope. I can't imagine Kelly even breaking 40% in any of those places, except against Liu (who is very weak as a candidate but also has no real chance to win the nomination), while I can see those places continuing to break ranks for a technocrat like Lhota or even a businessman like Catsimatidis if their campaigns ran very well.

Do you think Carrion would be the strongest GOP candidate or would he drive too many Republicans to vote third-party or not vote at all?

FWIW, I don't see Carrion getting it.  Just curious.

[Benj]

I'm not very familiar with Quinn's politics, but other than supporting Bloomberg's plan to extend term limits, what about her do NYC liberals not like?

Her pragmatism.  Her tenure running the Council leads many to believe as Mayor she wouldn't be a progressive hero like the other Dems.

There's a flip side to it, too. A lot of the pragmatic liberals and centrists who voted for Obama but like Bloomberg are suspicious that Quinn is more in bed with certain special interests (notably the rent regulation crowd, but also some of the more problematic unions, etc.). There's just suspicion on both sides, and in my mind properly as Quinn has never really staked out a strong ideological position on most issues. She's very much a politician. But that also makes her difficult to oppose, both in a primary (because she's never really taken a stand against any major left-wing interest group that would give someone like Bill de Blasio traction) and in the general (because she's not obviously offensive to various centrist voters, and also the center-right options are bad candidates for various reasons).

Would you agree with this ranking in terms of who's the most progressive candidate?:

1.  de Blasio
2.  Liu
3.  Thompson
4.  Quinn

I don't think I can really buy into any ranking of them as more or less progressive than one another.

De Blasio has clearly managed to market himself as the most left-wing candidate, and perception is nine-tenths of reality in politics. I do think he is a much more genuinely left-wing guy than Liu or Thompson, who are mostly poseurs when they try to claim the left of the Democratic Party.

Liu is a totally non-ideological interest group politician who basically does what will get him elected (and that includes some pretty dodgy/unethical things for some more corrupt politicians and groups, which is really what sets him apart from Quinn rather than ideology).

Thompson has always struck me as a somewhat bumbling bureaucrat. He's not ideological in that sense, mostly just a career guy but not corrupt like Liu (and also not as slick as any of the other candidates). He's also certainly not a figure to be lionized as an heir to Dinkins' legacy (though I definitely think Dinkins is way underrated and Koch in particularly grossly overrated--largely for unpleasant racial reasons on both counts) and not really a viable mayor, so again I don't see him as occupying a clear ideological space. I think he'll end up like Virginia Fields in 2005, not even managing to control the black vote in the Democratic primary. He's only really considered viable because he was the nominee by default in 2009.

I largely view the Democratic primary as a clash of personalities and political styles rather than one of substance or focus on certain issues, though of course the candidates (or at least the non-Quinn candidates) would like it to be the other way around. Realistically, there isn't anything substantive they can point to as disagreement. The primaries will mostly be de Blasio and the others trying to claim Quinn is Bloomberg's handmaiden and trotting out a lot of Quinn-Bloomberg photo-ops. That does not an ideological divide make, just the perception of one.

For full disclosure, I actually worked on Bloomberg's campaign in 2009 (as a paid intern, when I was in college) and am still a fan, though otherwise a solid Democrat. I'm not convinced Bloomberg's blatant public distancing from Quinn of late isn't a tactic to help her in the Democratic primary, but I'm kind of distrustful of Quinn anyway. I like Lhota, but he has no real chance. I would definitely not support Kelly or Catsimatidis (though I can't vote anyway as I've moved to Jersey City and at the moment don't foresee moving back to NYC before the election, though it could happen).

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Do you think Carrion would be the strongest GOP candidate or would he drive too many Republicans to vote third-party or not vote at all?

FWIW, I don't see Carrion getting it.  Just curious.
[/quote]

Carrion would significantly upend the overall dynamics of the race, and I think it's hard to say how viable he would be. I agree that he would not play well in a lot of traditional Republican base areas, resulting at the least in middling turnout, but if he brought over the Bronx and the Hispanic vote (realistic--voting tends to be strongly ethnic in NYC when [mainstream] minority candidates are on the ballot) that might not matter. Probably depends to a degree on the Democratic candidate. Unlike the other Republican candidates, I think Carrion would do worse against de Blasio than against Quinn, again for somewhat unpleasant reasons.

I could see myself supporting Carrion perhaps.

[bedstuy]

NYC politics always has been and will continue to be a joke.  I'm going to have to decide whether to vote for Thompson out of neighborhood pride or De Blasio because his son has a massive afro.  I wonder if Jimmy McMillan or Charles Barron will try third party campaigns, that could be interesting. 

[traininthedistance]

Urg, there are no good options.

Not Bill DeBlasio:

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Not Bill Thompson:

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And definitely not Christine Quinn, either.

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...

The leading Democratic contenders are all horribly out-of-touch and anti-progressive on transit issues, which is my number one issue wrt city government.  They're sufficiently bad that I would seriously consider voting for Lhota should he get the nomination.