NYC'13: Congrats to Mayor de Blasio

[Badger]

I'm truly surprised that even with a near 50 point ass kicking, there are still broad swaths of neighborhoods--outside the Island no less--that still went for Lhota. Often by heavy margins. Much of South Brooklyn and northeastern Queens. Howard Beach still (lol).

And what ever happened to the Upper East Side supposedly being a bastion of limosine liberals? Are these are diehard Quinn and Bloomburg supporters still butthurt that their candidates got the heave ho? I assumed the numbers willing to vote for a bona fide conservative like Lhota over that would be few.

[traininthedistance]

Too many pages to read so what happened to the pro-Hasid DA?

Went down in flames by over a 2-1 margin.

I'd really like to see a map for that race. Anyone have a blank NYC precinct map (or just a Brooklyn precinct map would work)?

I assume it looks similar to Presidential elections: Ultra-Republican in the Hasidic and Orthodox neighborhoods, moderately Republican in the rest of Southern Brooklyn (save Coney Island), ultra Dem everywhere else.

[Badger]

Too many pages to read so what happened to the pro-Hasid DA?

Went down in flames by over a 2-1 margin.

I'd really like to see a map for that race. Anyone have a blank NYC precinct map (or just a Brooklyn precinct map would work)?

I assume it looks similar to Presidential elections: Ultra-Republican in the Hasidic and Orthodox neighborhoods, moderately Republican in the rest of Southern Brooklyn (save Coney Island), ultra Dem everywhere else.

Aren't the Brooklyn Hasidim most numerous around Williamsburg? That neighborhood went heavily for BDB (though not quite up to his city-wide percentages).

Something else interesting: I'm not sure if it could be typos, but the 4 City Island precincts (island on the far eastern edge of the Bronx) all show "Others" over 10%; one close to 18% and probably averaging in the low teen's island-wide. Anyone with access to precinct result data know if that's legit? I wonder if one of the independent candidates is from there and how they got the support of over 1 in 8 residents.

[cinyc]

Aren't the Brooklyn Hasidim most numerous around Williamsburg? That neighborhood went heavily for BDB (though not quite up to his city-wide percentages).

Something else interesting: I'm not sure if it could be typos, but the 4 City Island precincts (island on the far eastern edge of the Bronx) all show "Others" over 10%; one close to 18% and probably averaging in the low teen's island-wide. Anyone with access to precinct result data know if that's legit? I wonder if one of the independent candidates is from there and how they got the support of over 1 in 8 residents.

It's probably legitimate.  Adolfo Carrión, Jr., the Independence Party candidate, lives on City Island, according to his Wikipedia page.

[Badger]

Aren't the Brooklyn Hasidim most numerous around Williamsburg? That neighborhood went heavily for BDB (though not quite up to his city-wide percentages).

Something else interesting: I'm not sure if it could be typos, but the 4 City Island precincts (island on the far eastern edge of the Bronx) all show "Others" over 10%; one close to 18% and probably averaging in the low teen's island-wide. Anyone with access to precinct result data know if that's legit? I wonder if one of the independent candidates is from there and how they got the support of over 1 in 8 residents.

It's probably legitimate.  Adolfo Carrión, Jr., the Independence Party candidate, lives on City Island, according to his Wikipedia page.

Taa-daa!! You're on a role tonight. :-)

I was going to ask how he could live on City Island when he was Manhattan Borough President, but then I thought about the useless nature of those positions and realized no one much cares. (Or maybe he moved since stepping down).

[Paul Kemp]

Do the NYC voters know that they just elected a Red Sox fan?

oh my god what.

Do the NYC voters know that they just elected a Red Sox fan?

4 realz?

Yup.

[traininthedistance]

Too many pages to read so what happened to the pro-Hasid DA?

Went down in flames by over a 2-1 margin.

I'd really like to see a map for that race. Anyone have a blank NYC precinct map (or just a Brooklyn precinct map would work)?

I assume it looks similar to Presidential elections: Ultra-Republican in the Hasidic and Orthodox neighborhoods, moderately Republican in the rest of Southern Brooklyn (save Coney Island), ultra Dem everywhere else.

Aren't the Brooklyn Hasidim most numerous around Williamsburg? That neighborhood went heavily for BDB (though not quite up to his city-wide percentages).

Something else interesting: I'm not sure if it could be typos, but the 4 City Island precincts (island on the far eastern edge of the Bronx) all show "Others" over 10%; one close to 18% and probably averaging in the low teen's island-wide. Anyone with access to precinct result data know if that's legit? I wonder if one of the independent candidates is from there and how they got the support of over 1 in 8 residents.

Yes, it went for BDB; it also went for McCain and Romney by ridiculous margins.  They very often vote Democratic at the local level for various pragmatic reasons.

While South Williamsburg is probably the most famous Hasidic neighborhood, you also have Crown Heights (which on the results map is a dot of Lhota in a sea of DeBlasio) and Boro Park.  Boro Park, in particular, probably has the highest total number of Hasidim.  There's also Orthodox presence in Midwood, southern Kensington/Ocean Parkway, and throughout much of Southern Brooklyn, and of course there is also the Russian Jewish community in Brighton Beach.

[cinyc]

Taa-daa!! You're on a role tonight. :-)

I was going to ask how he could live on City Island when he was Manhattan Borough President, but then I thought about the useless nature of those positions and realized no one much cares. (Or maybe he moved since stepping down).

Carrion was Bronx Borough President, not Manhattan Borough President.  According to Wikipedia, he's lived in the Bronx since the fourth grade - except perhaps for a short stint in the Obama administration.  And yes, those borough president jobs are useless now that the Board of Estimate is long gone.

[patrick1]

I'm truly surprised that even with a near 50 point ass kicking, there are still broad swaths of neighborhoods--outside the Island no less--that still went for Lhota. Often by heavy margins. Much of South Brooklyn and northeastern Queens. Howard Beach still (lol).

And what ever happened to the Upper East Side supposedly being a bastion of limosine liberals? Are these are diehard Quinn and Bloomburg supporters still butthurt that their candidates got the heave ho? I assumed the numbers willing to vote for a bona fide conservative like Lhota over that would be few.

The Upper West Side was the bastion of limosine liberals. The Upper East still has many younger financial workers living there.  A whole lot of bros.

[Grumpier Than Thou]

Wait de Blasio is a Sawx fan? What a frickin FF.

[Zioneer]

Sports fans are worse than political nerds.

[seanNJ9]

Bloomberg grew up a Sox fan as well

[Хahar 🤔]

After the 2011 Canadian election the Prime Minister was a Leafs fan from Calgary and the Opposition Leader was a Habs fan from Toronto.

[Badger]

De Blasio is going to win by a way bigger margin than Christie tonight.

By several points I'd say. Hence the "esque" descriptor.

By more than several points! Looks like they won't even be comparable.

And... you just may be right about de Blasio carrying the Island.

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It is anti NYC Democratic Party. They tried to break away from the city in the early 90s!

[Eraserhead]

De Blasio is going to win by a way bigger margin than Christie tonight.

By several points I'd say. Hence the "esque" descriptor.

By more than several points! Looks like they won't even be comparable.

And... you just may be right about de Blasio carrying the Island.

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

Other than de Blasio having a mixed race family and being seen as extremely liberal, it's hard to say. Lhota couldn't even carry SI in his primary against the disheveled looking crazy dude so I don't think there is any great love for him there in particular.

[Hatman 🍁]

After the 2011 Canadian election the Prime Minister was a Leafs fan from Calgary and the Opposition Leader was a Habs fan from Toronto.

Yes, but, Harper swept Toronto and Layton swept Montreal, so not a fair comparison. PLUS, Layton's wearing of a Habs jersey during the campaign (remember that iconic photograph) really boosted his profile in Quebec.

But makes you think, Layton was a Toronto city councillor, and a Habs fan. And he ran for mayor. So, similar comparison. But we all know from who Toronto elects for their mayors, the voters there aren't exactly enlightened

[cinyc]

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

The middle-class white ethnic Catholic vote (largely Italian and Irish) in NYC has trended Republican in citywide races, and, in some cases, even federal races.  You see that not just on Staten Island but in places like Howard Beach, Whitestone, Rockaway Park and Breezy Point in Queens, Throggs Neck, Country Club and Woodlawn in the Bronx and the parts of Southern Brooklyn that aren't Jewish or Russian like Bay Ridge.

[traininthedistance]

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

The middle-class white ethnic Catholic vote (largely Italian and Irish) in NYC has trended Republican in citywide races, and, in some cases, even federal races.  You see that not just on Staten Island but in places like Howard Beach, Whitestone, Rockaway Park and Breezy Point in Queens, Throggs Neck, Country Club and Woodlawn in the Bronx and the parts of Southern Brooklyn that aren't Jewish or Russian like Bay Ridge.

Bay Ridge has trended Democratic, actually, though that is mostly due to growing more diverse and less monolithically Italian over the years.  In particular, there has been an influx of Middle Eastern and Asian people in recent decades.

Your larger point is of course correct.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boro Park, in particular, probably has the highest total number of Hasidim. 

De Blasio did strikingly well there considering how it usually votes, particularly in the part that's in his old council district.

[NewYorkExpress]

Weiner engages in denial as to why he lost in an interview for GQ magazine.
http://www.nydailynews.com/news/election/weiner-mayor-internet-article-1.1488260

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[traininthedistance]

Boro Park, in particular, probably has the highest total number of Hasidim. 

De Blasio did strikingly well there considering how it usually votes, particularly in the part that's in his old council district.

Well, they often vote Democratic on the local level, and de Blasio has done a goodly amount of Hasidic outreach.  It's really not surprising.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Boro Park, in particular, probably has the highest total number of Hasidim. 

De Blasio did strikingly well there considering how it usually votes, particularly in the part that's in his old council district.

Well, they often vote Democratic on the local level, and de Blasio has done a goodly amount of Hasidic outreach.  It's really not surprising.

Of course. But still worth commenting on.

[Badger]

Nope, I was wrong. Lhota carried it 53-44. A 30 point advantage over his city-wide totals!

I don't feel quite so bad about that guess as SI's PVI in the last several mayoral elections--even including Conservative Party votes as Republican--has run anywhere from about 20-27%+R, with the 09 election being the lowest of the lot (Thompson only ran 17.5% behind his citywide totals then). It hasn't gone at least +30 for a Republican since Guiliani beat Dinkins in 93.

Any idea why the Island was so relatively anti-DeBlasio or pro-Lhota?

The middle-class white ethnic Catholic vote (largely Italian and Irish) in NYC has trended Republican in citywide races, and, in some cases, even federal races.  You see that not just on Staten Island but in places like Howard Beach, Whitestone, Rockaway Park and Breezy Point in Queens, Throggs Neck, Country Club and Woodlawn in the Bronx and the parts of Southern Brooklyn that aren't Jewish or Russian like Bay Ridge.

Yeah, but this election actually reversed something of a Democratic trend in SI for mayoral elections. Even Bill Thompson ran only 17.5% behind his citywide % 4 years ago, and it hasn't gone minus 30% for a Democratic candidate in 20 years. It's hard to believe there's a mid-40's ceiling there for Democrats running for mayor when even Obama narrowly won Richmond County (Sandy's effect duly noted, but the point remains the same).

I still suspect there's something else at work here.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

Why is it hard to believe?