Would the Arab Spring Have Toppled Saddam Hussein?

[retromike22]

I think it would have, Iraq had the combination of an authoritarian regime and oppressed minorities (Shia Muslims, Kurds)

[Associate Justice PiT]

     Shia Muslims really aren't a minority there. An oppressed majority is a more accurate statement.

[2952-0-0]

Saddam would have made Gaddafi and Assad look like Mother Theresa.

[opebo]

Too bad we didn't get to find out.. 

I personally think he could have made it - after all he regained control of the country after the First Gulf War despite America just slaughtering half his army and putting him under sanctions.   Of course it all depends on whether there would be imperial intervention - Gaddafi would have made it had the Western empires not attacked his people.

[Indy Texas]

Yes. If the Iraq War had never happened, Iran would no doubt have been inciting Shia activity against him. Combine that with the atrocious economic state Iraq would likely still be in and the better organizing potential (Saddam was removed from power before Facebook and Twitter had come into existence), and he would probably have met the same fate he did IRL - hanging from a gallows after being pronounced guilty by a kangaroo court. It just would have happened six years later and at no cost in blood or treasure to the United States.

[Yelnoc]

Yes. If the Iraq War had never happened, Iran would no doubt have been inciting Shia activity against him. Combine that with the atrocious economic state Iraq would likely still be in and the better organizing potential (Saddam was removed from power before Facebook and Twitter had come into existence), and he would probably have met the same fate he did IRL - hanging from a gallows after being pronounced guilty by a kangaroo court. It just would have happened six years later and at no cost in blood or treasure to the United States.

More likely the Iraqi Civil War would right now be the big news story, overshadowing the similar conflict in neighboring Syria.

[SPC]

Yes. If the Iraq War had never happened, Iran would no doubt have been inciting Shia activity against him. Combine that with the atrocious economic state Iraq would likely still be in and the better organizing potential (Saddam was removed from power before Facebook and Twitter had come into existence), and he would probably have met the same fate he did IRL - hanging from a gallows after being pronounced guilty by a kangaroo court. It just would have happened six years later and at no cost in blood or treasure to the United States.

More likely the Iraqi Civil War would right now be the big news story, overshadowing the similar conflict in neighboring Syria.

Could Assad and Hussein have taken a "Trading Dictators" type approach to their respective conflicts, thus placating their respective oppressed majorities?

[Stranger in a strange land]

Yes, though it probably would have still required a push from the outside. That could have come from any one of a number of sources: Iran, Turkey, the U.S., or the Gulf States, or probably all of them working together. The U.S. and Iran would probably be on better terms (though still not good ones) with no Iraq War because Bush wouldn't have felt the need to dream up the "Axis of Evil" if he, for whatever reason, didn't have to justify the Iraq War, and there wouldn't have been U.S. troops on one more of Iran's borders.

Could Assad and Hussein have taken a "Trading Dictators" type approach to their respective conflicts, thus placating their respective oppressed majorities?

No. Hussein and Assad hated each other too much.

[Simfan34]

I wonder if Izzat Al-Douri would have played a role.

[Silent Hunter]

No, because the Arab Spring would never have occurred.

[True Federalist (진정한 연방 주의자)]

No, because the Saudis and Gulf States would never have supported something that might lead to Iraq being no longer being under Sunni control.

[Del Tachi]

No 2003 invasion of Iraq would make for a very different environment in the Middle East in 2010/11.

Perhaps there wouldn't even have been an Arab Spring (in the form that we know it as) if not for the Iraq War...

[Person Man]

That's a good point, too. If the Bush Wars never occured, it may have made Arab/Muslim dictators looks less vulernable than in OTL. If not, Side-by-side Civil Wars would have been a boon for Iran.

[DemPGH]

No, because the Arab Spring would never have occurred.

That's a good point, actually, and is worth considering.

I voted no. I'm no expert on Saddam's Iraq, but he had pretty tight control and this Arab Spring smacks of something that was manufactured.