Welcome, Guest. Please login or register.
Did you miss your activation email?
August 21, 2019, 06:34:28 pm
News: 2019 Gubernatorial Predictions are now active

  Atlas Forum
  Election Archive
  Election Archive
  2008 Elections
  Who will get a bloody nose in Iowa?
« previous next »
Pages: [1] Print
Author Topic: Who will get a bloody nose in Iowa?  (Read 4724 times)
Make Politics Boring Again
exnaderite
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,942


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« on: February 08, 2005, 05:13:55 am »

Hmm...

Dems:
Hillary gets thrashed
Bayh gets solid win
Warner gets second place
Edwards gets punched in the eye

Reps:
Jeb thrown out after Iowa debates
Pataki (if he runs) bleeds, but may do well in NH
Santorum...iffy

Who else gets a good butt-kicking in Iowa?
Logged
NHPolitico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2005, 03:07:35 pm »

Hillary will win Iowa. Watch how charming she will be in 2007 leading up to the caucus.
Logged
Bono
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 11,703
United Kingdom


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2005, 03:12:38 pm »

Hillary will win Iowa. Watch how charming she will be in 2007 leading up to the caucus.

Don't you think her chapioning gun controll may kill her chances in such places?
Logged
Keystone Phil
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 52,667


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #3 on: February 08, 2005, 03:16:04 pm »

I don't see Santorum winning Iowa if he runs.
Logged
NHPolitico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #4 on: February 08, 2005, 03:22:20 pm »

Hillary will win Iowa. Watch how charming she will be in 2007 leading up to the caucus.

Don't you think her chapioning gun controll may kill her chances in such places?

She won't champion gun control in 2007 and 2008. Bank it.
Logged
nick
nickshepDEM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,910


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #5 on: February 08, 2005, 04:28:18 pm »

Hillary will win Iowa. Watch how charming she will be in 2007 leading up to the caucus.

Don't you think her chapioning gun controll may kill her chances in such places?

She won't champion gun control in 2007 and 2008. Bank it.

Doesnt matter, her voting record says it all.

# Keep guns away from people who shouldn’t have them. (Sep 2000)
# Limit access to weapons; look for early warning signs. (Sep 2000)
# License and register all handgun sales. (Jun 2000)
# Tough gun control keeps guns out of wrong hands. (Jul 1999)
# Gun control protects our children. (Jul 1999)
# Don’t water down sensible gun control legislation. (Jul 1999)
# Lock up guns; store ammo separately. (Jun 1999)
# Ban kids’ unsupervised access to guns. (Jun 1999)
# Voted NO on banning lawsuits against gun manufacturers for gun violence. (Mar 2004)

I couldnt find her NRA rating, but Im guessing it is very low.
Logged
NHPolitico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #6 on: February 08, 2005, 04:58:51 pm »

Doesnt matter, her voting record says it all.


Ha! That's a good one.  Her voting record on guns won't be used against her in the Dem caucus in Iowa.  None of the legit candidates will be beloved by the NRA.
Logged
Joe Republic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34,698
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #7 on: February 08, 2005, 05:15:50 pm »

Hillary will win Iowa. Watch how charming she will be in 2007 leading up to the caucus.

Don't you think her chapioning gun controll may kill her chances in such places?

She won't champion gun control in 2007 and 2008. Bank it.

Doesnt matter, her voting record says it all.

# Keep guns away from people who shouldn’t have them. (Sep 2000)
# Limit access to weapons; look for early warning signs. (Sep 2000)
# License and register all handgun sales. (Jun 2000)
# Tough gun control keeps guns out of wrong hands. (Jul 1999)
# Gun control protects our children. (Jul 1999)
# Don’t water down sensible gun control legislation. (Jul 1999)
# Lock up guns; store ammo separately. (Jun 1999)
# Ban kids’ unsupervised access to guns. (Jun 1999)
# Voted NO on banning lawsuits against gun manufacturers for gun violence. (Mar 2004)

I couldnt find her NRA rating, but Im guessing it is very low.

How does she have a voting record for before she was a senator?
Logged
nick
nickshepDEM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,910


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #8 on: February 08, 2005, 05:20:23 pm »


How does she have a voting record for before she was a senator?

I dont know, LOL.  I just looked her up at issues 2000 and this it what I got.  I guess some of those are statemensts recorded while she was First Lady?
Logged
nick
nickshepDEM
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,910


Political Matrix
E: -0.52, S: 3.65

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #9 on: February 08, 2005, 05:22:01 pm »
« Edited: February 08, 2005, 05:25:50 pm by nickshepDEM »

Doesnt matter, her voting record says it all.


Ha! That's a good one.  Her voting record on guns won't be used against her in the Dem caucus in Iowa.  None of the legit candidates will be beloved by the NRA.

Mark Warner kept the NRA neutral in his 2002 gubernatorial race, but thats all I cant think of.  Sad
Logged
Notre Dame rules!
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 777


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #10 on: February 08, 2005, 08:44:30 pm »

Being anti-gun  will only burnish her case among Iowa's Democrat Caucus voters.  Her voting record won't come back to hurt her until the General Election.    However, as has been said earlier, you can bet that she won't be the poster child for gun control during '07 and '08.
Logged
George W. Bush
eversole_Adam
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 906


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #11 on: February 08, 2005, 08:46:30 pm »

George Voinovich could do well in Iowa.
Logged
Umengus
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,186
Belgium


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #12 on: February 09, 2005, 04:30:42 am »

I hope that the system will change and that the Iowa causus will be delete as the first vote. With Howard Dean as chairman, it's possible...
Logged
NHPolitico
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 2,303


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #13 on: February 09, 2005, 02:26:00 pm »

I hope that the system will change and that the Iowa causus will be delete as the first vote. With Howard Dean as chairman, it's possible...

Ha. That's funny and probably 100% true. How long would it take the MSM to put two and two together should the DNC drop Iowa as the first voting state?
Logged
Joe Republic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34,698
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #14 on: February 09, 2005, 03:43:56 pm »

I hope that the system will change and that the Iowa causus will be delete as the first vote. With Howard Dean as chairman, it's possible...

Ha. That's funny and probably 100% true. How long would it take the MSM to put two and two together should the DNC drop Iowa as the first voting state?

This is largely my problem with the current primary system.  Let's imagine for a moment that Tom Vilsack (or any Iowan for that matter) was running for the nomination in 2008.  Being a native of the state, Vilsack would undoubtedly do better than he would on the national scale.  That then gives him a totally unfair advantage as the candidates enter the real primaries.

Of course, the same applies if New Hampshire really was the first primary.  I think it sucks, quite frankly.
Logged
Erc
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 5,741
Slovenia


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #15 on: February 09, 2005, 04:54:05 pm »

Well, that really helped Harkin's candidacy, didn't it...
Logged
Joe Republic
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 34,698
Kiribati


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #16 on: February 09, 2005, 05:08:10 pm »

Well, that really helped Harkin's candidacy, didn't it...

Harkin wouldn't have gotten as far as he did in 1992 if the first national caucus happened to be in, say, Alabama.

Actually, if it was there, we'd probably see a lot more conservative members of both parties getting early leads in the primary races.  This is what I mean by candidates getting unfair advantages.
Logged
Rob
Bob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,285
United States
Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -9.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #17 on: February 09, 2005, 08:06:07 pm »

It's been said before, but Hillary will lose Iowa, probably by 5-10 points. This will be a stunning upset, and her campaign will sink like a rock.
Logged
Notre Dame rules!
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 777


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #18 on: February 09, 2005, 09:41:11 pm »

You don't think that Hillary will get any kind of native daughter treatment, since she's really an Illini, not a New Yorker?


On the GOP side, Newt would  get crushed in Iowa.  I like Newt, but he's not the type of candidate that Iowans would go for--too Southern, too conservative.

Pataki would also be gone by the end of Iowa, if not before.
Logged
Rob
Bob
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,285
United States
Political Matrix
E: -6.32, S: -9.39

Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #19 on: February 09, 2005, 09:46:01 pm »

You don't think that Hillary will get any kind of native daughter treatment, since she's really an Illini, not a New Yorker?


No. Hillary is associated with New York, not Illinois.

And here's an interesting fact that's somewhat related: when in college, Hillary was a Goldwater Republican. I don't know how well known that is, but it surprised me when I read about it.
Logged
Notre Dame rules!
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 777


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #20 on: February 09, 2005, 09:57:59 pm »

I heard her say that  during the '92 campaign.  She said her whole family voted GOP until Bill started running for Gov in Arkansas.  While they remained in Illinois, they voted Dem in solidarity with their daugher, or so her story goes.

To go from a Goldwater girl to the Queen of the liberal Dems is quite a metamorphosis.
Logged
TomC
TCash101
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 6,896


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #21 on: February 18, 2005, 08:32:56 pm »

Seems like a lot of (Dem) Iowans decided to vote this year based on whom they thought was most electable. I expect Bayh to win that argument next time around, but it all depends on the dynamics and for Hillary, where she is on defense and foreign policy oissues, particularly middle east. Will she be the Dean or one of the appeasement Democratic senators that Dean railed on? I don't see that she'll be seen as real strong on defense as Kerry sometimes managed to pull off, but if there is a Dean-like liberal (Gore?) that goes overboard, she could be seen as a moderate on these issues. Her husband definitely was.

I expect Hillary to lose in Iowa, which will help her win New Hampshire decisively.

I expect Frist will do better than expected in Iowa, but I don't know if that means first. I expect Giuliani to begin to seriously fade after Iowa.
Logged
Rococo4
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 1,491


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #22 on: February 18, 2005, 09:48:26 pm »


There is no chance Voinovich would ever win the nomination...he should not even consider running
Logged
TheWildCard
YaBB God
*****
Posts: 4,531
United States


Show only this user's posts in this thread
« Reply #23 on: February 19, 2005, 02:47:14 pm »

Well, that really helped Harkin's candidacy, didn't it...

Harkin wouldn't have gotten as far as he did in 1992 if the first national caucus happened to be in, say, Alabama.

Actually, if it was there, we'd probably see a lot more conservative members of both parties getting early leads in the primary races.  This is what I mean by candidates getting unfair advantages.

No matter where you start the primaries someone will have an advantage. Unless you had a primary week that included a state from the west coast, the mid-west, the mountain states, north east and the south. Even then certain candidates will have advantages.

I mean if Vilsack and a Dem from NH ran for President I'd hope everyone would essentially abandon the front end strat. Unless you like coming in second wasting most of your money. Of course, some might argue that the 2nd place candidate will get a lot of buzz as people ask the question "Is Vilsack the real deal or just lucky because he's from Iowa?"
Logged
Pages: [1] Print 
« previous next »
Jump to:  


Login with username, password and session length
Logout

Terms of Service - DMCA Agent and Policy - Privacy Policy and Cookies

Powered by SMF 1.1.21 | SMF © 2015, Simple Machines

© Dave Leip's Atlas of U.S. Elections, LLC