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  Swing states in 2008
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Author Topic: Swing states in 2008  (Read 2054 times)
Beck 2020
tmcusa2
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« on: February 08, 2005, 08:52:26 am »

The states Bush lost once will probably be swing states, they are NM, Iowa and NH.
Of the states Bush lost twice Michigan, Wisconsin, Pennsylvania, Oregon and possibly Minnesota and Maine.
Of the states Bush won twice a number come to mind..
Nevada, Arizona, Colorado, Missouri, Ohio, and Florida..
possibly also three southern states, Virginia, West V, and Arkansas...
Now what is interesting is suppose it is another very close election in the e college, like about 300 or less for the winner? The winner will be up for up for re-election *after* the 2010 census. So the states he (or she) wins in 2008 will be critical in 2012. Suppose, for example, the Dem wins 278-260. Now, suppose that the same states were to loose exactly 8 electoral votes. The Dem would win 270-268.
It is obviously hard to predict 2012 until we know the results of 2008, but it will be interesting to watch the results of census 2010 and how this will effect the results of 2012.

As we know the Gore states lost 7 electoral votes. However, the swing states mentioned above may offset that especially Colorado, Arizona, Nevada, and Florida. Ohio, on the other hand may lose another one or two and the other swing states will remain about the same.
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ian
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« Reply #1 on: February 08, 2005, 02:45:33 pm »

I think this all depends on the candidate.
If a moderate Democrat runs, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana (Bayh), and a whole slew of southern states will be up for grabs--and Nevada and Colorado are pretty safely ours.  On the other hand, Maine, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, and maybe even California would also be up for grabs.
If a liberal Democrat runs, it's going to be the same as this time.
If a moderate Republican runs (unlikely), it will be the same as if a moderate Democrat runs.
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Redefeatbush04
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« Reply #2 on: February 08, 2005, 04:26:59 pm »

Utah and Idaho.

Everything else goes for the democrat Wink
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Umengus
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« Reply #3 on: February 09, 2005, 04:25:49 am »

I think this all depends on the candidate.
If a moderate Democrat runs, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana (Bayh), and a whole slew of southern states will be up for grabs--and Nevada and Colorado are pretty safely ours.  On the other hand, Maine, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, and maybe even California would also be up for grabs.
If a liberal Democrat runs, it's going to be the same as this time.
If a moderate Republican runs (unlikely), it will be the same as if a moderate Democrat runs.

I agree.
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skybridge
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« Reply #4 on: February 09, 2005, 04:51:02 am »

Utah and Idaho.

Everything else goes for the democrat Wink

Swing states have more electors than that!
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