I think this all depends on the candidate.
If a moderate Democrat runs, Arizona, Ohio, Florida, Missouri, Indiana (Bayh), and a whole slew of southern states will be up for grabs--and Nevada and Colorado are pretty safely ours. On the other hand, Maine, New Hampshire, Washington, Oregon, and maybe even California would also be up for grabs.
If a liberal Democrat runs, it's going to be the same as this time.
If a moderate Republican runs (unlikely), it will be the same as if a moderate Democrat runs.
I agree.
