Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

Efgani Dönmez, who was born in Turkey but came to Austria as a small child, and who is now an MP for the Greens to the Bundesrat (upper chamber of the Austrian parliament) wants the Erdogan-supporters in Austria deported back to Turkey !

Yesterday, 5000 Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrated in Vienna.

Because of this, Dönmez said that they should "be given a one-way ticket to Turkey, so that they can stay there".

He got immediately criticized by his Green party colleagues and SPÖ politicians.

On the other hand, the FPÖ paid respect to his comments thanking him for his "flawless democratic tenor".



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gruener-bundesrat-will-erdogan-anhaenger-abschieben-63186

Finally a sensible Green politician!

He's even getting murder threats now, because of what he said. He asked for police protection already.

The national Greens decidedly refuse to enter a coalition with Team Stronach, unlike the Greens in Salzburg. They cite that Stronach is too autocratic, has problems with core/vital institutions like unions and his "crazy" Euro-ideas as main reasons.

That's what they say now, but when the opportunity arises to acquire high-paid government posts, maybe this opposition might dwindle quickly.

I think the federal Greens might stick to their position, even after the elections.

They are more activist (similar to the Vienna Greens) than the Salzburg-Greens, who are more like the Baden-Württemberg Greens, therefore more to the center and pragmatic.

[Tender Branson]

The 1st half of the government term (2.5 of 5 years) in Vienna is over and "Heute" has a new Karmasin poll, which shows how Vienna voters would vote if the 2015 state election would be held today:



In the first half of the term, the government (SPÖ-Greens) has passed a series of measures in the city that were core Green-issues, such as new bikelanes, parking room-related measures, etc.)

This benefits the Greens, while the SPÖ loses slightly.

The FPÖ remains surprisingly strong in Vienna, probably because the city has seen a lot of immigration in the past years and because many workers are now voting FPÖ and not SPÖ anymore (this is especially the case in the worker districts in the South Simmering and Favoriten, where Strache is from and in the Northern districts Donaustadt and Floridsdorf where young upper middle class families move and which have a lower share of foreigners).

The ÖVP is historically weak in Vienna and can't really move up it seems.

Team Stronach is not a factor in Vienna either.

http://www.heute.at/news/oesterreich/wien/art23652,891457

[Tender Branson]

Hans-Peter Haselsteiner, a wealthy CEO of a construction company and former MP for the LIF in the Austrian Parliament and philantropist, has agreed to double the donations that the liberal NEOS party receives in June and July. NEOS has received donations worth of 50.088 € in May.





http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1417816/Haselsteiner-verdoppelt-Spenden-an-Neos-

I think this won't be enough, because if you want to compete Austria-wide for the entry into parliament (4% needed), you will need much more than 1 Mio. €, because the organizing costs, TV ads, poster campaigns and campaign staff already sucks up lots of cash.

Haselsteiner probably won't go the Stronach way and donate tens of millions, but I think he could at least do slightly more to give them a real chance.

Even if NEOS collects 100.000 in June and July each, it will only be doubled to 400.000€

He should donate ca. 1-3 Mio. € in my opinion.

[Nanwe]

Is there any possibility for NEOS to enter the Parliament? Or even regional parliaments then?

[Tender Branson]

Is there any possibility for NEOS to enter the Parliament? Or even regional parliaments then?

Hey, welcome to the Forum ...

I think their chances are very small. 4% is needed and even the LIF got only slightly more than 2% in 2008. Maybe the debates will change things and they are rising in the polls toward the end of the campaign. But as of right now, I would say no.

There were 4 state elections this year and in none of them NEOS decided to run. This is because the party is relatively new and is just starting to organize itself and trying to find good staff and candidates. Ressources were even more limited a few months ago when the state elections took place.

Maybe they will run in future state elections, like Vorarlberg next year. The NEOS-leader Matthias Strolz is from Vorarlberg, so I would say the chances are good.

[Leftbehind]

They may as well just join Team Stronach.

[Tender Branson]

They may as well just join Team Stronach.

No, because they are 2 versions of "liberal":

Team Stronach is euro-critical, while NEOS is europhile, they even favor a "USE" (United States of Europe".

NEOS is also a grassroots movement with a strong focus on giving everyone a chance (they held online primaries to find their candidates for the parliamentary election).

Team Stronach on the other hand is autocratic and organized like a sect, where the cult leader (Stronach himself) dictates everything from top to bottom.

NEOS is also 100% transparent about their finances and campaign donations, which they publish on their website.

Frank Stronach on the other hand is secretive about his finances and even autocratic with the media: He always wants to have a final say about what they write etc. (even though that doesn't really work in a free-press system).

Also, while NEOS and Team Stronach are almost identical when it comes to business ideology (tax cuts for companies, flat rates, Sunday-work and opening for stores, reducing the power of unions, etc.) NEOS is more socially liberal than the Team Stronach. For example they put a focus on education reform and embrace the concept of the all-day comprehensive school, something that is usually a policy from Socialist parties.

Also, NEOS is for full gay marriage rights incl. adoption, while Team Stronach takes an opaque "wait-and-see" approach, similar to the BZÖ (even though the BZÖ at least favors civil unions). Whenever the Team Stronach was asked about LGBT rights, it was said "we are working on our program, you will see it later". Now they have released a 70-page program a few months ago, and still nothing concrete in there ...

[Leftbehind]

I was being a bit hyperbolic to air my disdain for the party.

[njwes]

Efgani Dönmez, who was born in Turkey but came to Austria as a small child, and who is now an MP for the Greens to the Bundesrat (upper chamber of the Austrian parliament) wants the Erdogan-supporters in Austria deported back to Turkey !

Yesterday, 5000 Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrated in Vienna.

Because of this, Dönmez said that they should "be given a one-way ticket to Turkey, so that they can stay there".

He got immediately criticized by his Green party colleagues and SPÖ politicians.

On the other hand, the FPÖ paid respect to his comments thanking him for his "flawless democratic tenor".

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gruener-bundesrat-will-erdogan-anhaenger-abschieben-63186

Finally a sensible Green politician!

He's even getting murder threats now, because of what he said. He asked for police protection already.

Well that's pretty much to be expected when you insult members of the Religion of Peace unfortunately :-/

Will the statement in any way conceivably hurt the Greens?

[Tender Branson]

Efgani Dönmez, who was born in Turkey but came to Austria as a small child, and who is now an MP for the Greens to the Bundesrat (upper chamber of the Austrian parliament) wants the Erdogan-supporters in Austria deported back to Turkey !

Yesterday, 5000 Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrated in Vienna.

Because of this, Dönmez said that they should "be given a one-way ticket to Turkey, so that they can stay there".

He got immediately criticized by his Green party colleagues and SPÖ politicians.

On the other hand, the FPÖ paid respect to his comments thanking him for his "flawless democratic tenor".

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gruener-bundesrat-will-erdogan-anhaenger-abschieben-63186

Finally a sensible Green politician!

He's even getting murder threats now, because of what he said. He asked for police protection already.

Well that's pretty much to be expected when you insult members of the Religion of Peace unfortunately :-/

Will the statement in any way conceivably hurt the Greens?

The Greens are currently at a high federally (16%) after their very positive result in the Salzburg state election (20%).

So, I think they can only go down from now with this negative news coverage about the Turks.

16% is way too high anyway. I think they will get more like 13% on election day.

[Tender Branson]

The new Salzburg government (ÖVP/Greens/TS) was officially sworn in today about an hour ago.

Wilfried Haslauer Jun. (ÖVP) was elected the new governor.

He is the son of former Salzburg governor Wilfried Haslauer Sen. who was on of the most popular governors in the state (1977-1989) and when he died there were lines of people at his funeral that were miles long.

This means the ÖVP has now 5 state governors and the SPÖ 4.

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/salzburg-laeutet-neue-politische-aera-ein-regierung-angelobt-63345

[Tender Branson]

The Salzburg state website has already been updated:

http://www.salzburg.gv.at/pol/landesregierung.htm

The seating chart of the new Salzburg state parliament that was sworn in today (click right on your mouse for the big version):

[njwes]

The Greens are currently at a high federally (16%) after their very positive result in the Salzburg state election (20%).

So, I think they can only go down from now with this negative news coverage about the Turks.

16% is way too high anyway. I think they will get more like 13% on election day.

With the difference likely all going to SPO?

[Tender Branson]

The Greens are currently at a high federally (16%) after their very positive result in the Salzburg state election (20%).

So, I think they can only go down from now with this negative news coverage about the Turks.

16% is way too high anyway. I think they will get more like 13% on election day.

With the difference likely all going to SPO?

I think they are more evenly going to the ÖVP, SPÖ and NEOS, with 1% each.

NEOS I guess has only to gain, and if they do, they get most of their additional support from ÖVP and Green voters and of course those who voted for the LIF already in 2008.

NEOS currently polls between 0% and 2%. Usually they are not asked seperately right now. Maybe this changes starting in September, when they get more visible. Then it will be easier to see where support is likely going and where not.

[Tender Branson]

The Austrian Parliament's general committee today has officially announced Sept. 29 as the date for the federal elections.

The article mentions that the parliament will actually not be dissolved, because it was a regular 5-year term and in this case the current parliament works until the new parliament is sworn in.

Of course there will be a summer break from Mid-July to end of August, but parties can call special sessions in between if they want.

The election calendar that I posted a few days ago was also accepted by the parliament today, which means the election timeline will start officially on July 9. From this day on to August 2, small parties can collect signatures to appear on the ballot (can be tough during the 3 weeks when most voters are on vacation, because the school holidays start on July 5).

http://www.parlament.gv.at/PAKT/PR/JAHR_2013/PK0575/index.shtml

[Tender Branson]

The ÖVP has presented their federal list today for the elections in September.

Ranked 5th is Asdin El Habbassi, who would be the first MP of Moroccan origin (not the first Muslim though because there already are some in Parliament).



Ca. 10-15 of the federal list will be elected into the new Parliament for the ÖVP, with the rest coming from state and district lists.

So, he is a sure bet to become an MP.

http://www.oevp.at/Die_OeVP-Bundesliste.psp

[Tender Branson]

New ATV Austria Trend poll:

27% SPÖ (-2% compared with '08 election)
25% ÖVP (-1)
18% FPÖ (+0.5)
16% Greens (+6)
10% TS (+10)
  1% BZÖ (-10)
  1% NEOS (+1)
  1% Pirates (+1)
  1% Others

http://atv.at/contentset/184821-ATV%20%C3%96sterreich-Trend

[njwes]

Out of curiosity has the FPO ever run any minority/"ethnic" politicians high on its list?

[Tender Branson]

Out of curiosity has the FPO ever run any minority/"ethnic" politicians high on its list?

Not that I'm aware of.

The only politician from the FPÖ with something else than "Austrian/Christian" is David Lasar, a member of the Vienna state parliament - who is Jewish:

http://www.fpoe-wien.at/index.php?id=1200&maID=325

But there could be a few people with Balkan background in the FPÖ (lower ranked on the lists though) ...

[Tender Branson]

New IMAS poll for the "Kronen Zeitung" today:



http://www.krone.at/Oesterreich/Faymann_gegen_Spindelegger_Wahl_als_Kanzler-Duell-Strache_aus_Rennen-Story-366173

[MaxQue]

Oh, God, they dared.

Random comments. Strahe has a speedo, unlike other guys. Green leader has a gravity problem (with that position, she is falling).

Why making that horrible photoshop job?

[Tender Branson]

Oh, God, they dared.

Random comments. Strahe has a speedo, unlike other guys. Green leader has a gravity problem (with that position, she is falling).

Why making that horrible photoshop job?

This week it was very hot here (35°C).

Maybe the Krone graphics people were bored and made this swimming photoshop graphic ...

[Tender Branson]

Also, changes compared with their May poll:

SPÖ: -1%
ÖVP: -2%
FPÖ: nc
Greens: nc
TS: +1%
BZÖ: +1%
Others: +1%

For some reason, IMAS polls always show the BZÖ higher than other polls.

[Tender Branson]

More from the Kronen Zeitung/IMAS poll:

How are 16-30 year olds voting ?

27% FPÖ
15% Greens
15% ÖVP
14% SPÖ
14% TS
11% BZÖ

[Tender Branson]

Austria as a whole: 57% Right, 40% Left

Austrian young voters: 67% Right, 29% Left

If we factor in 3% undecided nationally (1% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Pirates) and 4% undecided among the young (3% Pirates, 1% NEOS and 0% KPÖ because mostly old people vote for them), it's:

Austria as a whole: 57% Right, 42% Left, 1% Liberals

Austrian young voters: 67% Right, 32% Left, 1% Liberals