Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

I've decided that I will sign a petition for the leftist "Wandel" party ("The Change"), so that they can appear on the ballot in September.

Their chances to appear on the ballot are actually very slim. If they appear somewhere, maybe in Vienna, but probably not here in Salzburg.

[Leftbehind]

Do you reckon they sent out six people to do that 'pose', or scoured for people jumping in relevant coloured swimwear?

[njwes]

27% FPÖ
15% Greens
15% ÖVP
14% SPÖ
14% TS
11% BZÖ

Woah. That's somewhat surprising (maybe?)

[Franknburger]

Austria as a whole: 57% Right, 40% Left

Austrian young voters: 67% Right, 29% Left

If we factor in 3% undecided nationally (1% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Pirates) and 4% undecided among the young (3% Pirates, 1% NEOS and 0% KPÖ because mostly old people vote for them), it's:

Austria as a whole: 57% Right, 42% Left, 1% Liberals

Austrian young voters: 67% Right, 32% Left, 1% Liberals

The BZÖ appeal to young men is something to worry about. The best you might say is that, as long as they vote BZÖ, they don't go for anything similar to the German NPD, but that is no real consolation.

The Austrian Greens have, as their German counterparts, decided to go for the (younger) female vote. They are obviously not faring bad with that decision, so why should they review it?
That puts the task of winning (back) the young male vote on the SPÖ. My impression is that the SPÖ is lacking the personnel for that - BZÖ leader Strache appears to be the only male politician below 50 years with some sort of charisma (probably a key reason of the BZÖ's appeal to young men). What's your take on that, Tender?

[On a side note: You appear to get irritated by the green female power as well. Or am I just over interpreting your enthusiasm for NEOS (yes, that girl really looks nice!), and your support for "Wandel" (which will have no chance of entering the Austrian parliament, but might sip away some votes from Greens and SPÖ)?]

[Tender Branson]

Do you reckon they sent out six people to do that 'pose', or scoured for people jumping in relevant coloured swimwear?

I think they used an archive photo and photoshopped their heads on them, maybe coloured the swimwear in the appropriate party colours as well (even though Bucher's is black instead of orange).

27% FPÖ
15% Greens
15% ÖVP
14% SPÖ
14% TS
11% BZÖ

Woah. That's somewhat surprising (maybe?)

Not really surprising actually. Previous polls and election day analysis surveys have shown that the FPÖ is the strongest party among young voters. Greens are actually a tad too low in this poll, ÖVP and SPÖ support is normal for this age group I think and values for TS and BZÖ are likely too high. IMAS always overestimates the BZÖ. And TS is usually supported more by old people.

Austria as a whole: 57% Right, 40% Left

Austrian young voters: 67% Right, 29% Left

If we factor in 3% undecided nationally (1% NEOS, 1% KPÖ, 1% Pirates) and 4% undecided among the young (3% Pirates, 1% NEOS and 0% KPÖ because mostly old people vote for them), it's:

Austria as a whole: 57% Right, 42% Left, 1% Liberals

Austrian young voters: 67% Right, 32% Left, 1% Liberals

The BZÖ appeal to young men is something to worry about. The best you might say is that, as long as they vote BZÖ, they don't go for anything similar to the German NPD, but that is no real consolation.

The Austrian Greens have, as their German counterparts, decided to go for the (younger) female vote. They are obviously not faring bad with that decision, so why should they review it?

That puts the task of winning (back) the young male vote on the SPÖ. My impression is that the SPÖ is lacking the personnel for that - BZÖ leader Strache appears to be the only male politician below 50 years with some sort of charisma (probably a key reason of the BZÖ's appeal to young men). What's your take on that, Tender?

[On a side note: You appear to get irritated by the green female power as well. Or am I just over interpreting your enthusiasm for NEOS (yes, that girl really looks nice!), and your support for "Wandel" (which will have no chance of entering the Austrian parliament, but might sip away some votes from Greens and SPÖ)?]

You mixed up BZÖ with FPÖ. Strache is the FPÖ-leader ...

Other than that you are right, Strache is popular with the young voters, because he often shows up in clubs and focuses his policies on the young. At least more so than the other parties do. Or at least the FPÖ is more successful with their messages than other parties.

I do not have "enthusiasm" for NEOS, nor would I vote for them (too market-liberal, corporatist). I just want to portray lesser known parties in my thread here.

On the Greens: Yes, they primarily target the professional, upper-middle class urban voters and Speckgürtel (suburb) voters, but I think the Green share will also increase this time in the rural areas, because the Greens did a good job in the past 5 years highlighting the corruption during the Schüssel-government (2000-2006) and therefore get some credit from the voters.

[Tender Branson]

The Pirates held their convention yesterday and finalized their list for the federal election:



The first 3 from the list are:

* Mario Wieser (the 2nd from the right)
* Juliana Okropiridse (the girl, part-Georgian - the country, not the US state)
* Philipp Pacanda (the second from the left)

http://www.kleinezeitung.at/nachrichten/politik/3340383/romario-spitzenkandidat-piratenpartei.story

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Austrian Press Council is debating the introduction of a polling publication ban 1 or 2 weeks ahead of an election, similiar to the ban in Italy.

The head of the APC, Oscar Bronner from the liberal newspaper "derStandard", said today that there are "increasing opinions among the council members in favour of a ban", because "polls right before the election do more harm than good and could be used to manipulate voters in the endgame of the campaign".

Let's see if this is going anywhere ...

[Franknburger]

The BZÖ appeal to young men is something to worry about. The best you might say is that, as long as they vote BZÖ, they don't go for anything similar to the German NPD, but that is no real consolation.

The Austrian Greens have, as their German counterparts, decided to go for the (younger) female vote. They are obviously not faring bad with that decision, so why should they review it?

That puts the task of winning (back) the young male vote on the SPÖ. My impression is that the SPÖ is lacking the personnel for that - BZÖ leader Strache appears to be the only male politician below 50 years with some sort of charisma (probably a key reason of the BZÖ's appeal to young men). What's your take on that, Tender?

[On a side note: You appear to get irritated by the green female power as well. Or am I just over interpreting your enthusiasm for NEOS (yes, that girl really looks nice!), and your support for "Wandel" (which will have no chance of entering the Austrian parliament, but might sip away some votes from Greens and SPÖ)?]

You mixed up BZÖ with FPÖ. Strache is the FPÖ-leader ...

Other than that you are right, Strache is popular with the young voters, because he often shows up in clubs and focuses his policies on the young. At least more so than the other parties do. Or at least the FPÖ is more successful with their messages than other parties.

I do not have "enthusiasm" for NEOS, nor would I vote for them (too market-liberal, corporatist). I just want to portray lesser known parties in my thread here.

On the Greens: Yes, they primarily target the professional, upper-middle class urban voters and Speckgürtel (suburb) voters, but I think the Green share will also increase this time in the rural areas, because the Greens did a good job in the past 5 years highlighting the corruption during the Schüssel-government (2000-2006) and therefore get some credit from the voters.

I hope you don't mind that I was teasing you a bit on NEOS

Of course, you are right that I mistook FPÖ (Strache) for BZÖ. Still, the fact that BZÖ polls at 11% among young voters (so probably above 15% with young men), while running at 3-5% overall, is surprising? What is behind their youth appeal?
The Austrian Pirates appear to be similarly male-based as their German counterparts (note how the guys are embracing each other, while that alibi girl is standing by the side, obviously quite unsure whether she really belongs there). Any chance for them to sip some "angry young men" protest vote away from BZÖ / FPÖ ?

Finally, back to the SPÖ - do you see them getting "younger" and more male, or will they continue to compete with ÖVP for the pensioners' vote (which they won in Carinthia, but lost in Upper Austria), and with the Greens for middle-aged women?

[Tender Branson]

The BZÖ appeal to young men is something to worry about. The best you might say is that, as long as they vote BZÖ, they don't go for anything similar to the German NPD, but that is no real consolation.

The Austrian Greens have, as their German counterparts, decided to go for the (younger) female vote. They are obviously not faring bad with that decision, so why should they review it?

That puts the task of winning (back) the young male vote on the SPÖ. My impression is that the SPÖ is lacking the personnel for that - BZÖ leader Strache appears to be the only male politician below 50 years with some sort of charisma (probably a key reason of the BZÖ's appeal to young men). What's your take on that, Tender?

[On a side note: You appear to get irritated by the green female power as well. Or am I just over interpreting your enthusiasm for NEOS (yes, that girl really looks nice!), and your support for "Wandel" (which will have no chance of entering the Austrian parliament, but might sip away some votes from Greens and SPÖ)?]

You mixed up BZÖ with FPÖ. Strache is the FPÖ-leader ...

Other than that you are right, Strache is popular with the young voters, because he often shows up in clubs and focuses his policies on the young. At least more so than the other parties do. Or at least the FPÖ is more successful with their messages than other parties.

I do not have "enthusiasm" for NEOS, nor would I vote for them (too market-liberal, corporatist). I just want to portray lesser known parties in my thread here.

On the Greens: Yes, they primarily target the professional, upper-middle class urban voters and Speckgürtel (suburb) voters, but I think the Green share will also increase this time in the rural areas, because the Greens did a good job in the past 5 years highlighting the corruption during the Schüssel-government (2000-2006) and therefore get some credit from the voters.

I hope you don't mind that I was teasing you a bit on NEOS

Of course, you are right that I mistook FPÖ (Strache) for BZÖ. Still, the fact that BZÖ polls at 11% among young voters (so probably above 15% with young men), while running at 3-5% overall, is surprising? What is behind their youth appeal?

The Austrian Pirates appear to be similarly male-based as their German counterparts (note how the guys are embracing each other, while that alibi girl is standing by the side, obviously quite unsure whether she really belongs there). Any chance for them to sip some "angry young men" protest vote away from BZÖ / FPÖ ?

Finally, back to the SPÖ - do you see them getting "younger" and more male, or will they continue to compete with ÖVP for the pensioners' vote (which they won in Carinthia, but lost in Upper Austria), and with the Greens for middle-aged women?

Well, the sample size is very low for the 16-30 age group.

The overall poll usually has a sample of 500-750. So the subgroup for the 16-30 year olds has no more than 100 respondents. That could be a reason why the BZÖ does so well here. Of course they could also be as low as 3% in reality.

You are right that the Pirates are a male-dominated party. You can see it on this Forum as well, there are only 3% women or so as well. And the girl was previously ranked at place 20 or so on the federal list and was moved up to rank 2 so that the list becomes "more female".

The SPÖ has almost no people that appeal to younger voters, therefore I think they will remain as a party mostly for the pensioners.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, the Austrian Press Council is debating the introduction of a polling publication ban 1 or 2 weeks ahead of an election, similiar to the ban in Italy.

The head of the APC, Oscar Bronner from the liberal newspaper "derStandard", said today that there are "increasing opinions among the council members in favour of a ban", because "polls right before the election do more harm than good and could be used to manipulate voters in the endgame of the campaign".

Let's see if this is going anywhere ...

"derStandard" has published 2 different opinions about a poll ban today, 1 pro-ban and 1 contra-ban:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

Efgani Dönmez, who was born in Turkey but came to Austria as a small child, and who is now an MP for the Greens to the Bundesrat (upper chamber of the Austrian parliament) wants the Erdogan-supporters in Austria deported back to Turkey !

Yesterday, 5000 Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrated in Vienna.

It seems the Dönmez-comments led to the opposite, with even more Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrating (peacefully) yesterday:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

...

In the meantime, Dönmez has apologized for his comments.

[Tender Branson]

Meanwhile, FPÖ+BZÖ+ÖVP are turning up the heat on the pro-Erdogan demonstrators:

http://derstandard.at/1371170415255/Kurz-an-Tuerken-in-Oesterreich-Konflikte-nicht-hereintragen

The Austrian Secretary for Integration, Sebastian Kurz, said: "If someone immigrates to Austria to build a new life here, he should feel like an Austrian and not bring with him the conflicts of his original country and not go to the streets because of it." He also said it "reminds him of the Yugoslav wars in the early 90s, during which the different ethnics also brought their divisions to Vienna and sometimes clashed in their new home. But history has shown that this doesn't work and nowadays Croats, Serbs, Bosnians, Kosovars, Macedonians etc. live together in peace in Vienna. This should be used as a model for the Turks as well and noted that only 9.000 of the 200.000 Turks in Austria took place in the protests."

The FPÖ on the other hand is naturally more extreme with their demands and (like the Green Dönmez) wants pro-AKP-Turks to get their stuff and leave Austria for Turkey.

FPÖ-leader Strache said: "The Turks who protested here today in favor of Erdogan should move back to Turkey and should bring themselves in into the processes there instead of here. Why are they continuing to be here, if they like Turkey and life there so much ?"

The BZÖ's Bucher on the other hand wants naturalisations only based on a probationary time of 5 years: "If people who are given the Austrian citizenship are sentenced to more than 1 year in prison here because of a crime during these 5 years of probationary time, the citizenship should be revoked."

[Tender Branson]

Turk-bashing has been always good for the FPÖ, electorally-speaking:

In cities with a high Turkish immigrant population like Vienna, Hohenems, Wr. Neustadt, Wels or cities in my state Salzburg, Hallein for example, the FPÖ always had really good results.

It also serves as a welcome distraction for the FPÖ in times of headlines like these:

"Tyrol-FPÖ virtually bankrupt"

[Tender Branson]

Hahaha:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The "Krone"-Forum thread about the Turkish protests in Vienna had to be closed because "no meaningful discussion was possible anymore due to crazy postings".

[Tender Branson]

During the last 5 weeks of the election campaign from Mid-August to Election Day (Sept. 29), there will be more than 20 head-to-head debates on 3 TV channels (public broadcaster ORF and the two private channels ATV and PULS 4).

Among them, there will be 3 Chancellor-debates between SPÖ-leader Faymann and ÖVP-leader Spindelegger.

In addition to these head-to-head-debates (also for example FPÖ vs. Greens, FPÖ vs. Stronach and so on), there will also be "Elephant-rounds", in which the 6 party leaders will debate against each other in closed formats (only with one or two moderators present) or in town-hall formats, in which a large audience asks their questions.

And there will be a ORF "Meet the Press"-debate between frontrunners of the small parties that qualify for the ballot nationwide.

Today, ATV will start with an early opposition debate between FPÖ-leader Strache, Green-leader Glawischnig and BZÖ-leader Bucher. Faymann, Spindelegger and Stronach will not debate in this one, because they said it's too early for it.

[Tender Branson]

"Tyrol-FPÖ virtually bankrupt"

Aaaaand the Tyrol-FPÖ leader is gone. And will be replaced with a new party leader on July 12:

http://derstandard.at/1371170555131/Tiroler-FPOe-haelt-am-12-Juli-ausserordentlichen-Parteitag-ab

...

Also, this Friday the re-unification convention of the FPK and FPÖ is scheduled to take place.

[Tender Branson]

There's some good news and some bad news today about the Austrian economy (with the bad news being tackled).

The bad news and the reaction to it first:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

The good news:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

SPÖ, ÖVP and Greens today agreed on a "democracy package" for Austria.

Central parts of this package include mandatory national referendums if more than 10% of eligible voters sign a petition drive for a referendum (10% would be ca. 640.000 signatures).

For mandatory constitution-related referendums the signature requirement would be 15% (ca. 960.000 signatures).

The package will now be reviewed in committees and could be passed in a special session before the term is up in September, ahead of the election.

EU-law, international law and basic & human rights will be exempt from referendums (meaning for example that a death penalty referendum would not be held, even if the signature threshold is met and so on).

Other parts of the package include setting up an e-government tool online, so that voters can sign referendum petitions online.

http://diepresse.com/home/politik/innenpolitik/1422785/Demokratiereform_Koalition-und-Gruene-einigen-sich

[Tender Branson]

Today, ATV will start with an early opposition debate between FPÖ-leader Strache, Green-leader Glawischnig and BZÖ-leader Bucher. Faymann, Spindelegger and Stronach will not debate in this one, because they said it's too early for it.

Video:

http://atv.at/contentset/410627-am-punkt

[Tender Branson]

The SPÖ is out with a first poster campaign, in which Chancellor Faymann is present:



"Rough/stormy times. Safe/steady hand."

"We fight for every job/workplace."

Ca. 5000 posters will be printed for this first poster campaign.

[Tender Branson]

In the "Krone" today, there's already 3 posters that the ÖVP plans to use against Faymann:



On the first it says: "... and tomorrow the families ?"

On the second: "... and tomorrow granny's bank savings book ?"

On the third: "... and tomorrow the house of your parents ?"

In the red circles it says: "Where does it end ?"

And in the red boxes it says: "STOP the Faymann-taxes !".

...

With these posters, the ÖVP attacks the SPÖ's plans to impose wealth taxes and inheritance/estate taxes. While also fearmongering in general against a future hypothetical SPÖ tax burden on families.

[Tender Branson]

New "Karmasin" poll today (sample = 800) for "Heute" newspaper:

29% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
18% FPÖ
15% Greens
  7% TS
  2% BZÖ
  2% NEOS
  1% Pirates
  1% KPÖ

(right-click on the pictures for big version)

[Tender Branson]

NEOS has now been included in 2 polls in a row.

They recently aired a few ads on private TV channels. Maybe this is the reason for it.

But we have to remember that the LIF (which is now part of the NEOS-platform) overpolled ahead of the 2008 election, polling as high as 4%, but then they got only 2% on election day.

There's still a lot to do for NEOS if they want to get past the 4% threshold.

[Tender Branson]

New "Oekonsult" poll for the "Bezirksblätter" weekly newspapers:



Lower chart: "Which party do you think cares most about affordable housing ?"

Also, the most wanted coalition form after the election is some sort of Grand Coalition, with 20% supporting a Red-Black government with a Red Chancellor and 16% supporting a Black-Red coalition with a Black Chancellor.

http://www.meinbezirk.at/wien-01-innere-stadt/politik/umfrage-rot-schwarz-geht-sich-nur-knapp-aus-d618402.html

[Tender Branson]

In the evening, the Carinthia-FPK will merge with the FPÖ @ a convention with 500 delegates:

http://derstandard.at/1371170925110/FPOe-und-FPK-vereinen-sich-in-Kaernten

"FPK" will not exist anymore and be named "FPÖ Kärnten" from now on.

The next step is to lure/assimilate members of the Carinthia-BZÖ into the party, maybe even merging with the BZÖ later, in the event that the BZÖ gets kicked out of parliament in the federal election in September. In this case, the BZÖ would only be in one state parliament anymore, which is in Carinthia ...