Austrian Parliamentary Election - Sept. 29

[Tender Branson]

Chancellor Faymann (SPÖ) goes populist, wants better-off banks to pay for another failed/failing/problem bank - instead of the taxpayers (aka voters):

Austrian banks fume over levy extension talk

May 27 (Reuters) - Austrian banks oppose Chancellor Werner Faymann's suggestion that a national bank levy could be extended indefinitely to help pay for ailing lender Hypo Alpe Adria, the head of the country's banking association said.

BTW, the new Gallup poll shows that voters side with Faymann on this issue: 72% want the bank levy to be extended beyond 2017 to pay for possible future bailouts of problem banks, instead of using taxpayer money that is needed to balance the budget in the next years. Only 13% are opposed and 15% undecided.

http://file.oe24.at/epaper/#6

Even the ÖVP is now ready to talk about extending the levy beyond 2017, because they don't want to be seen as pro-banks ...

[Tender Branson]

New Karmasin poll for Heute:

27% SPÖ
25% ÖVP
18% FPÖ
16% Greens
10% TS
  1% BZÖ
  3% Others

52-44 majority for the current SPÖVP government.

http://epaper.heute.at/#/documents/130531_HEU/4

[Tender Branson]

Update:

5 weeks after the state election, Salzburg (my home state) has a new government as of today* !

* (well not really, it was presented today, then the 3 party boards have to okay the coalition agreement tomorrow, then the coalition contract will be signed on Friday and the government is sworn in next Friday)

ÖVP-Greens-Team Stronach

The government was presented today and consists of 7 members (ministers):

3 from the ÖVP (Gov. Wilfried Haslauer, Vice-Gov. Christian Stöckl, Josef Schwaiger)
3 from the Greens (Vice-Gov. and Green-leader Astrid Rössler, Martina Berthold, Heinrich Schellhorn)
1 from the Team Stronach (Hans Mayr)



Schellhorn, Schwaiger, Rössler, Haslauer, Mayr, Berthold, Stöckl

For the first time since 1945, the SPÖ will be in opposition.

[Tender Branson]

Brigitta Pallauf (the woman below) will become the new state parliament president:

[Tender Branson]

The Greens are now in 5 state governments out of 9:

* Salzburg (ÖVP-Greens-Team Stronach, since 2013)
* Tyrol (ÖVP-Greens, since 2013)
* Carinthia (SPÖ-ÖVP-Greens, since 2013)
* Vienna (SPÖ-Greens, since 2010)
* Upper Austria (ÖVP-Greens, since 2003 - reelected 2009)

Carinthia and Upper Austria have Proporz-governments, which means every party with ca. 10% gets in the government automatically, which further means the Team Stronach has a government seat as well in Carinthia and the SPÖ and FPÖ in Upper Austria too. But still, "working agreements" (coalitions) in parliament can be formed by different parties.

...

Other current governments in Austria:

* Vorarlberg (ÖVP-absolute majority)
* Lower Austria (ÖVP-SPÖ coalition, despite absolute majority for the ÖVP in the last election, because of the Proporz-system the Team Stronach has a government post as well)
* Burgenland (SPÖ-ÖVP coalition, Burgenland has the proporz as well, but no party was anywhere near the 10% that are needed)
* Styria (SPÖ-ÖVP coalition, FPÖ has a government post because of the proporz system)

[Tender Branson]

Funny fact about the Salzburg investment scandal that wiped out the Social Democrats in the May 5 election and badly damaged the ÖVP:

Meanwhile, the toxic papers are sold at a speedy rate and the finance check has resulted in a net PROFIT for the state of ca. 100 Mio. € so far because of the selloff.

It is estimated that the selloff takes ca. 18 months, but when all is said and done the state will actually have a PLUS in their finance reports and the debt is back to pre-scandal level.

So, the SPÖ got punished at the polls and the new government will reap the rewards of it ...

http://wirtschaftsblatt.at/home/nachrichten/oesterreich/salzburg/1413060/Salzburg-wickelt-Finanzskandal-mit-Plus-ab

[Tender Branson]

English article about it (important parts in bold):

(Reuters) - Austria's Salzburg province held out hope on Friday it can unwind without losses a complex web of highly speculative trades its former budget director wove before she was sacked last year.

Salzburg has accused Monika Rathgeber of covertly borrowing 1.8 billion euros ($2.3 billion) over a decade to run a shadow financial portfolio of exotic investments and currency trades.

Rathgeber has denied any wrongdoing and insisted her superiors knew of the transactions she carried out to bolster Salzburg's finances. Prosecutors are investigating her for possible breach of trust and abuse of office.

The scandal triggered early elections in Salzburg this month, which brought down the provincial government led by Social Democrats, exposed lax supervision of opaque provincial finances and prompted a national drive to rein in the regions.

The province brought in experts including veteran Vienna banker Willi Hemetsberger and PricewaterhouseCoopers to help sort out the mess, and on Friday said it had sold off around two-thirds of the speculative debt package.

"From today's perspective, it seems realistic that the province can unwind the speculative portfolio without financial losses," outgoing Governor Gabi Burgstaller said in a statement.

Initial concerns that the portfolio faced a 340 million euro book loss have not been borne out. The latest snapshot showed the province's financial portfolio had a 97 million euro surplus at mid-May thanks to market developments and asset sales.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/05/17/austria-finances-salzburg-idUSL6N0DY1RG20130517

[Tender Branson]

New Market poll:

25% SPÖ (-4 compared with 2008 election)
23% ÖVP (-3)
20% FPÖ (+2)
16% Greens (+6)
  9% TS (+9)
  3% BZÖ (-8)
  4% Others (NEOS, Pirates, KPÖ, CPÖ, EU-Exit, The Change, etc.) (-2)

Looks like the FPÖ has bottomed out and is now slightly gaining again.

Full Market trend chart:

[Tender Branson]

The federal election commission has already a draft election calendar out for the Sept. 29 federal election.

http://www.staedtebund.gv.at/services/aktuelles/aktuelles-details/artikel/vorlaeufiger-wahlkalender-fuer-nationalratswahl-2013orlaeufiger-wahlkalender-fuer-nationalratswahl-2.html

The calendar starts on July 9, which means that the election will be called 1 or 2 weeks before that and the parliament will be dissolved in 2-3 weeks already.

The timeframe for smaller parties to collect the 2600 signatures to be on the ballot will be from July 9 to August 2.

Also:

Because the absentee/postal vote was reformed in the past 5 years so that all absentees and postal votes have to be at the district voting commission by the end of election day, there is also a different counting procedure this time:

On election day when all polls have closed at 5pm, the normal ballots will be counted, plus the absentees that were cast in the precinct that was assigned to the voter on the election information card.

On Monday after the election, all postal ballots will be counted by the district election comissions (ca. 10% of all votes cast in 2008).

And on Wednesday, the tiny amount of absentees that were cast in a precinct other than the one that the voter was assigned to will be counted (only a few thousands).

[Tender Branson]

If you have any questions about the upcoming federal election, just ask them ...

I have some time now to answer them.

[Tender Branson]

One of the SPÖ's campaign topics is very popular with the voters:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

[Tender Branson]

New "Heute" poll by Karmasin (sample = 500):

"Do you agree with the government's decision to pull all Austrian UN peacekeepers from the Golan Heights ?"

66% Yes
21% No
13% Undecided

Men support it by 68-24, women by 64-18.

Old voters (50+) support it with 71%, young voters (16-30) just with 52%.

http://www.heute.at/news/politik/art23660,889923

[Tender Branson]

The party boards of ÖVP, Team Stronach and Greens have OK'd the coalition yesterday evening.

There was concern after the election that the Green base could be pissed to enter a coalition with the ÖVP or Team Stronach, but it turned out that the Salzburg-TS guy is way more pragmatic and moderate than the national TS, for example saying that unions are a vital and integral part of today's labour market, whereas the national TS is against unions and wants their power to be reduced.

Because of this, the Green base voted with 112 votes in favor of the coalition, with just 1 vote against and 1 abstention.

...

Today, the coalition contract was signed by the 3 party leaders and the new coalition will then be sworn in next week.



Astrid Rössler (Greens), Wilfried Haslauer (the new Governor, ÖVP) & Hans Mayr (Team Stronach)

http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/salzburg/politik/sn/artikel/salzburger-koalitionsabkommen-offiziell-unterzeichnet-62864

[Tender Branson]

Today's Gallup poll:

[Tender Branson]

Today's Karmasin poll for "Profil":

27% SPÖ
24% ÖVP
18% FPÖ
15% Greens
  8% TS
  2% BZÖ
  6% Others (NEOS, Pirates, KPÖ, CPÖ, EU-Exit, The Change, etc.)

51-41 majority for the current SPÖVP government.

http://www.profil.at/articles/1324/560/360294/sonntagsumfrage-umfrage-spoe-platz

[Tender Branson]

Slow news weekend ...

Greens have said they will remain in the opposition after the election if SPÖ and ÖVP have a majority again together.

Meanwhile, the ÖVP has found a new election topic: reforming the "basic income", especially in Vienna (where more than 150.000 basic income receivers are found, vs. ca. 15.000 in Lower Austria). Despite the fact that Vienna and Lower Austria have almost the same population size.

The ÖVP is blaming the SPÖ-Green government in Vienna for allowing "social hammocks" and wants to tighten the penalties and make penalties more swift if someone refuses work etc.

[Tender Branson]

Efgani Dönmez, who was born in Turkey but came to Austria as a small child, and who is now an MP for the Greens to the Bundesrat (upper chamber of the Austrian parliament) wants the Erdogan-supporters in Austria deported back to Turkey !

Yesterday, 5000 Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrated in Vienna.

Because of this, Dönmez said that they should "be given a one-way ticket to Turkey, so that they can stay there".

He got immediately criticized by his Green party colleagues and SPÖ politicians.

On the other hand, the FPÖ paid respect to his comments thanking him for his "flawless democratic tenor".



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gruener-bundesrat-will-erdogan-anhaenger-abschieben-63186

[Zanas]

I'm pretty sure "deported" is quite a stronger term that what he was really saying or had in mind, but...

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

So Tender, seeing that Austria seems to love their Grand Coalitions is there even a hypothetical chance that ÖVP would not continue to rule with SPÖ after the election?

[Tender Branson]

I'm pretty sure "deported" is quite a stronger term that what he was really saying or had in mind, but...

He didn't really say "deport them", but his remark with "giving them a one-way ticket to Turkey" was part of an interview in which he also said that "Edogan is driving Turkey against a wall".

So, he might really hate Erdogan and his backers and really want them out of here and back in Turkey. Forever.

So Tender, seeing that Austria seems to love their Grand Coalitions is there even a hypothetical chance that ÖVP would not continue to rule with SPÖ after the election?

It's extremely likely as of right now that the SPÖVP government continues, or if the ÖVP comes out first in the election, ÖVPSPÖ.

Because of the following reasons:

There are only 5 parties who will get more than 4% (SPÖ, ÖVP, FPÖ, Greens, TS).

NEOS (the joint liberal platform made up of former ÖVP-, Green-members and current LIF and Young Liberal-members) is too weak and if the LIF didn't manage to get more than 4% in 2008, they probably won't either this year.

Pirates, KPÖ, etc. are all too small, disorganized and underfunded to run a national campaign.

The national Greens decidedly refuse to enter a coalition with Team Stronach, unlike the Greens in Salzburg. They cite that Stronach is too autocratic, has problems with core/vital institutions like unions and his "crazy" Euro-ideas as main reasons.

SPÖ-Greens alone is not possible (just 40-45%).

And SPÖ-Greens-FPÖ is ... LOL.

ÖVP-FPÖ is not possible either as of right now (ca. 40-45% too), but maybe on election day if the ÖVP gets close to 30% and the FPÖ close to 20%.

This is probably the only option where I can see the ÖVP leaving the Grand Coalition. But even this scenario is extremely unlikely, because Spindelegger doesn't like FPÖ-leader Strache and his people and rather works with the SPÖ.

Another sign of a continued GC is the fact that SPÖ and ÖVP do not attack each other right now in some form of pre-capaigning, like they should.

In fact, when the floods hit in the past weeks, they acted more like one party instead of two.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As I suspected then.
In other words Austria continues to have the most boring national politics of any other country.

[Tender Branson]

As I suspected then.
In other words Austria continues to have the most boring national politics of any other country.

Boring national politics is usually a sign of well-managed and functioning countries.

See Switzerland (which is even more boring), your Sweden, Norway, Finland etc.

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

As I suspected then.
In other words Austria continues to have the most boring national politics of any other country.

Boring national politics is usually a sign of well-managed and functioning countries.

See Switzerland (which is even more boring), your Sweden, Norway, Finland etc.

Fair enough.

Though in Sweden and Norway we at least have two government alternatives to choose from.
But I'll give you Finland and Switzerland.

[njwes]

Efgani Dönmez, who was born in Turkey but came to Austria as a small child, and who is now an MP for the Greens to the Bundesrat (upper chamber of the Austrian parliament) wants the Erdogan-supporters in Austria deported back to Turkey !

Yesterday, 5000 Pro-Erdogan Turks demonstrated in Vienna.

Because of this, Dönmez said that they should "be given a one-way ticket to Turkey, so that they can stay there".

He got immediately criticized by his Green party colleagues and SPÖ politicians.

On the other hand, the FPÖ paid respect to his comments thanking him for his "flawless democratic tenor".



http://www.salzburg.com/nachrichten/oesterreich/politik/sn/artikel/gruener-bundesrat-will-erdogan-anhaenger-abschieben-63186

Finally a sensible Green politician!

[ERvND]

The national Greens decidedly refuse to enter a coalition with Team Stronach, unlike the Greens in Salzburg. They cite that Stronach is too autocratic, has problems with core/vital institutions like unions and his "crazy" Euro-ideas as main reasons.

That's what they say now, but when the opportunity arises to acquire high-paid government posts, maybe this opposition might dwindle quickly.