so you're saying that a Republican who loses the PV wins Michigan, Pennsylvania, "New Virginia", and Colorado?
Yes, my opinon is without the financial crisis, McCain does better with blue collar whites in Ohio, Michigan and Pennsylvania, he also narrowly wins Florida and North Carolina.
Virginia was a mistake, I should have made that 40% Dem.
Obama still gets huge minority turnout (which gives him Nevada and New Mexico) but in Michigan and Pennsylvania without winning as much blue collar whites he loses those states.
I think without the terrible economy more blue collar whites would have stuck with what they knew instead of going for Obama's change.