Ashley Judd might run against McConnell in 2014 KY Senate race

[Mr. Morden]

http://www.politico.com/story/2012/12/ashley-judd-exploring-senate-run-84542.html?hp=f1

[morgieb]

Daft decision. She's far too liberal to defeat McConnell.

Although I suppose it could help defend other seats.....

[Snowstalker Mk. II]

I'd much rather have Grimes or Conway go for it. Maybe even dig up Mongiardo.

[Keystone Phil]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

[sg0508]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

I respectfully disagree, especially when he's at the centerfold of the DC "gridlock".

[freepcrusher]

Daft decision. She's far too liberal to defeat McConnell.

Although I suppose it could help defend other seats.....

she has no voting record so she could easily shift a few clicks to the right and campaign as sort of a blue dog.

[freepcrusher]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

+1. Now is not the time to be targeting seats. 2014 should be all about damage control for dems.

[Keystone Phil]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

I respectfully disagree, especially when he's at the centerfold of the DC "gridlock".

I don't think Kentucky really minds that McConnell is seen as a roadblock to Barack Obama.

[RogueBeaver]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

[Holmes]

I'd much rather have Grimes or Conway go for it. Maybe even dig up Mongiardo.

Mongiardo can stay buried for all I care. Still living in his parents basement?

[nolesfan2011]

The national Dems who think Judd is just an "awesome candidate" are deluded. She is a horrible fit for the state. Plus given that Dems control every statewide office in KY, they can do better, heck Ben Chandler the congressman who just lost would be a better fit than Judd. (Conway has connection issues so I wouldn't run him again).

I'll just run through the gambit as to why, she is like you said much too liberal, far too tied at the hip to Obama (case and point http://dailycaller.com/2012/05/24/ashley-judd-obama-has-an-incredible-devotion-to-our-constitution-video/) meanwhile Obama does horrible in KY and only (barely) wins the 4 metro counties, while losing the rest of the state.

She is far too tied to rather liberal activist groups that are easy attack fodder for the McConnell warchest (which is huge and growing http://mycn2.com/politics/mcconnell-keeps-adding-to-warchest-as-democrats-search-for-an-opponent-drags-on) plus the NRSC and Super-Pacs. All the pro choice, pro gay rights, pro environmental groups will be a dagger to her (http://newsbusters.org/blogs/tim-graham/2012/05/26/ashley-judd-nbc-republicans-are-really-dumb-obama-has-flowered).

Also, she has lingerie spreads on the internet (http://newspaper.li/static/885ec5173b3eb2b9bce4fd79026605c2.jpg) and she is married to a foreign (Scottish) Indy Car driver (http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=LFKbMucoics).

People make the Al Franken comparison because she is a political novice who made a career in entertainment, but Franken barely won in a blue year, against a rather weak Norm Coleman, in Minnesota.   Judd would be running in a mid term year against a politically unpopular but seniority powerful McConnell who the national GOP wants to keep around and who has a huge warchest, in conservative Kentucky.

Judd is going to have experience and cultural connection issues, especially outside of the metro areas and in rural Kentucky (the counties Beshear wins but Obama doesn't because he connects better and relates).

The biggest one of all, she lives in Tennessee, she doesn't even live in Kentucky, all the McConnell attack dogs have to do is use the "radical Obama supporting liberal outsider who doesn't share our values" card.. and her approvals will go way down.

The NRSC and GOP was able to savage southern, male, conservative dem candidates like Jim Martin, Ronnie Musgrove and Harold Ford and by comparison Judd is easy pickins.

I mean the NRSC ran ads like this against conservadem Musgrove http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=IJGCeA19UW4  and this against Conway http://www.youtube.com/watch?v=EyvxfnF59Lw.   "values" will be an issue and the word "liberal" will get drummed into people's tv's and radio's. (they hit Conway over Canadian trips and cursing at a church picnic!!)

For my personal politics Judd is mostly fine, I would vote for her, but Joe Kentuckian wouldn't and that is the problem the egghead national Dem types don't understand, they don't get Appalachia, Southern and Rust Belt politics because none of them know the regions.

All the Dems rightfully hate the turtle McConnell but Dems can do much better, given that in 08 the Dem got 47% vs. McConnell's 53% the seat is winnable, and honestly I think Judd could cost us the Senate seat.

If she runs I hope she loses in a primary so the GOP attack dogs don't pounce and smother her campaign with ease.

It would not end well...
 

Daft decision. She's far too liberal to defeat McConnell.

Although I suppose it could help defend other seats.....

[Maxwell]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

His approval rating is 35%. If that isn't vulnerable, I'm not quite sure what is.

[Amenhotep Bakari-Sellers]

The GOP are likely to get a concession out of Obama on the tax cut deal closing the tax loopholes rather than raising the tax rates. As long as he keeps his troops in line by not raising rates I think he is safe.

[Bacon King]

These two paragraphs from the article have the best arguments both for and against a Judd candidacy, so there's really no need for you guys to argue yourselves:

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Hell, I say let her run if we don't get any serious candidate against McConnell.

• She has no major record so she can define her own politics to some extent
• Everybody, even in Kentucky, already knows who she is and likes her
• Lots of money and focus on what would otherwise be a dead race
• She's the charity loving type of celebrity, not the cocaine loving type
• McConnell's typical vicious attacks would be much less effective against her than the old white male career politicians he's always run against in the past.
• If it gets too rough she can pull a Hill-Dawg and cry a little to still win

[Keystone Phil]

She does have a record of political activism and not the type that Kentucky will like. Plus, being personally liked doesn't necessarily make one a liked political figure as we've learned plenty of times in the past.

[CountryRoads]

Might as well run George Clooney. She's way too liberal for Kentucky.

[Ogre Mage]

Her mother, Naomi Judd is a conservative Republican.  If Ashley were to do this I imagine there would be some family tension.

Running a liberal Hollywood star with no political experience is not a recipe for success in Kentucky.  She certainly would not be my first choice and would almost certainly lose.  But if a stronger candidate cannot be recruited, what do we have to lose?

Now that Michael Bennet is officially heading the DSCC, it will be interesting to see how he handles this situation.

[Zioneer]

Her mother, Naomi Judd is a conservative Republican.  If Ashley were to do this I imagine there would be some family tension.

Running a liberal Hollywood star with no political experience is not a recipe for success in Kentucky.  She certainly would not be my first choice and would almost certainly lose.  But if a stronger candidate cannot be recruited, what do we have to lose?

Now that Michael Bennet is officially heading the DSCC, it will be interesting to see how he handles this situation.

Hey, if a Kentucky baseball guy can serve in the Senate for a while, why not an Hollywood star? Wouldn't be the first time an actor serving in a high-ranking political position, after all.

[DrScholl]

None of the other top Democratic names in the state want to take him on, so it's not like the race was shaping up all the great for Democrats to begin with.

[The Mikado]

Mitch McConnell is going to win anyway, so why not run Ashley Judd?

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

+1. Now is not the time to be targeting seats. 2014 should be all about damage control for dems.

Partially disagree.  There's a little room for offense, especially if Susan Collins gets a tea party challenger.

[badgate]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

His approval rating is 35%. If that isn't vulnerable, I'm not quite sure what is.

Seriously. In comparison, Mark Pryor's rating is 53%, but every post I've seen has said his seat's up for grabs


I do think she does have the "hometown girl" feel, I mean if you read that Politico article they stress her deep roots to KY over and over again. She could overcome some of the "evil liberal" attacks. Plus, at some point, McConnell's "evil liberal" attacks would reach a point of diminishing returns. She has no voting record, so she could tack center or center-right where she needs to. The rest would come down to whether or not McConnell's able to define her early as "liberal Hollywood sleaze." If he isn't then there would be an opportunity for her to make appeals to Kentuckians on the issues they may disagree on, and genuinely explain to voters why she stands where she does. The #1 issue on her platform should be climate change, though. The ranchers in KY are not doing very well, and McConnell's distrust of science has actually damaged the KY economy. Seriously, his ranchers would have green grass instead of brown if he heeded environmentalists and brought the information and technology home to KY.

Anyway, I don't think she'd win, but it'd be kind of entertaining. And she could probably fundraise enough to keep McConnell from defining her early.

[Meeker]

There are problems with her candidacy, but many of those problems could be remedied significantly with a proper media campaign (one which Judd would surely be able to fund). The idea that Judd would run a campaign as anything other than a moderate Democrat is also laughable.

She'd certainly be an underdog, but hey - Arnold Schwarzenegger was Governor of California and Al Franken is a U.S. Senator. It could happen.

[Ogre Mage]

As a template Judd might want to look at the race Heidi Heitkamp ran in North Dakota.  Just as Heitkamp expressed strong disagreement with Obama's energy policy, it sounds like taking a strong pro-coal stance is something she would need to do.

The difficulty would be trying to pivot from her progressive history without going too far and coming off like a brazen Mitt Romney-style 180 degree reversal.  Her acting background may help.

[Keystone Phil]

Please do. This whole "McConnell is vulnerable" talk is getting tiring. I'd love to put it to rest.

His approval rating is 35%. If that isn't vulnerable, I'm not quite sure what is.

Seriously. In comparison, Mark Pryor's rating is 53%, but every post I've seen has said his seat's up for grabs

McConnell has been through plenty of tough races. He's tested. He's running in a favorable state for his party in a midterm. Begich's one run was a nailbiter against a man facing federal charges (yes, a legend but obviously his legal problems were a huge issue. Otherwise, it wouldn't have even been close). He'll be running in a midterm in a state that doesn't have a favorable view of his party.

[I spent the winter writing songs about getting better]

He said Pryor, not Begich.

But anyway yeah McConnell isn't as vulnerable as those numbers would show and he almost certainly wins here. But Judd isn't the type of sleazy Hollywood type who's always in legal trouble or adultery, and most of her activism is standard non-partisan humanitarian stuff. No she's probably not going to win, but if no prominent Democrats run why not have her?