The Ride of the Nighthorse

[sentinel]

Timeline below.





Spoiler:
This is a 2004 timeline.

[sentinel]

December 1998

The Senator and his closest friends sit in the smoke room of his home discussing what the next year will bring.

"Senator, are you really considering this?" one friend asked
"How many times do I have to tell you to not call me Senator at home?" the elected official replied
"You just got reelected, do you think the people will allow you to run for another office so quickly?" another friend asked
"It is two years from now. They will have all forgotten about this election by then." the Senator replied.
"If you want to do it, regardless if you think you'll win, then you should do it." a third friend replied
"I think I will."

The Ride of the Nighthorse

[Stand With Israel. Crush Hamas]

Ben Nighthorse Campbell for President?

Easily one of my favorite politicians. Can't wait to see this one unfold.

[sentinel]

Two years later

Associated Press Report

"Today, Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell has ended his campaign for the Presidency of the United States endorsing presumptive nominee Governor George W. Bush of Texas. Senator Campbell and Senator John McCain of Arizona were the main rivals facing Governor Bush. Bush swept up the first three states of Iowa, New Hampshire and South Carolina leading to both rivals dropping out of the race.

Governor Bush will go on to face Vice President Al Gore in the general election in November.

November 2000

Governor George W. Bush of Texas / Former Defense Secretary Richard B. Cheney - 271 Electoral Votes, 47.9% Popular Vote
Vice President Albert A. Gore of Tennesse / Senator Joseph I. Lieberman of Connecticut - 268 Electoral Votes, 48.4% Popular Vote



Interview with Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell

"Would you run again?"
"For President?"
"Yes, for President"
"After the butt kicking I got from George Bush, I don't think so."

[Niemeyerite]

Oh, this will be interesting.

[badgate]

Well. That escalated quickly.

[sentinel]

2003

The first years of the Presidency of George W. Bush were marked by the attacks on 9/11 and the beginning of the war in Afghanistan against the Taliban and al-Qaeda. As the way progressed, the United States, with Congressional approval, took military action against Iraq in March 2003.  President Bush declared that the mission in Iraq was accomplished in May 2003 –but within days Joseph Wilson in a NYT column wrote that it was “highly doubtful that any such [yellowcake] transaction had ever taken place” spreading doubts that WMDs had ever existed.

As 2003 continued the headlines only got worse for Bush. The insurgency was starting to kick up by the fall, CIA officers were warning of a civil war, suicide bombings, rumors of Bush acting on bad intelligence and ignoring experts, and finally in September 2003 images of torture at the Abu Ghraib facility in Iraq were published in the American media –with the deadliest month for Americans in Iraq coming immediately after the publishing. Bush’s approval ratings were dropping, now hovering around 48% down from 80% at the beginning of the war.

In the 2002 midterms the previous year,  Republicans would lose 10 seats in the House enough to lose the majority, and Democrats would hold the Senate narrowly reelecting Max Cleland, Jean Carnahan and electing Walter Mondale and Mark Pryor to the Senate.


”The President’s lack of leadership, lack of oversight is an atrocity. I don’t know who the hell let these people into our military, but I’m ashamed of it. I’m ashamed of our President and I’m ashamed that I voted for him. I feel the only thing I have to offer now is an alternative to this floundering administration. Today, I announce my candidacy for President of the United States – Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell, November 15, 2003

[sentinel]

Media Headlines November 2003

“GOP LOSES HOUSE”

“SPEAKER GEPHARDT; LEAVES PREZ RACE; ENDORSES DEAN”

“BUSH PRIMARIED BY GOP SENATOR”

“BUSH TO HAVE CHALLENGER”

“MCCAIN RIDES THE NIGHTHORSE, SAYS WILL BE BETTER LEADER FOR USA”

“SEN. WARNER (R-VA) ‘NOT COMMITTED’ TO BUSH”

“BUSH TO IOWA, CANCELS LONDON TRIP”

“LONDON: BUSH NOT WELCOME HERE”

“NIGHTHORSE CHALLENGES PRESIDENT TO DEBATE”

“CAMPBELL: BUSH AFRAID TO DEBATE”

“I don’t have much money Iowa, but what I have to offer you is a vision. George Bush’s vision is the photos you saw come out of Abu Ghraib, the botched war in Iraq, protests against America across the world. My vision of smaller government and fewer taxes is what Republicanism is actually about –not what we’re seeing from the Bush Administration.” - Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell

December 2003

“Polling shows that the President is ahead but vulnerable in the Iowa caucuses. Senator Campbell’s campaign has had a surge of ground support in the past few weeks –while the Bush campaign, who didn’t expect a challenge, had nothing together. They’ve been slow to react.” – Wolf Blitzer on CNN

January 1, 2004

Media Reports

“December has been the deadliest month for Americans in Iraq so far…the insurgency has full momentum after the Abu Ghraib scandal which is still in the headlines…”

“108th Congress Sworn In, Bush Approval 40%”

Iowa Caucuses – January 19, 2004

Democratic Results

Governor Howard Dean: 38.1%
Senator John Kerry: 32.8%
Senator John Edwards: 25.3%
General Wesley Clark: 3.8%
Congressman Dennis Kucinich: Negligible

Republican Results

President George W. Bush: 50.1%
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 49.9%

“President Bush won the Iowa Caucus by a nose hair tonight. Senator Campbell gave him a run for his money, and at this point –if I were George Bush I’d be running scared.” – Dan Rather

“President Bush got beat tonight. If the incumbent President has to fight off his own party, then he’s already lost –just like his pop.” – Former Senator Bob Dole

Media Headlines

“BUSH SQUEAKS OUT A WIN, 50.1-49.9”

“CAMPBELL COMPETITIVE”

“HERE COMES THE NIGHTHORSE”

“NIGHTHORSE CHALLENGES THE PRESIDENT”

“IOWA SPLIT DECISION – NIGHTHORSE RIDES ON”

[sentinel]

“We haven’t received a request to debate –“

“They’ve been calling on your campaign for months to debate –“

“We have received no formal requests –the President’s schedule is packed due to the war…”

New Hampshire Primary Results

Democratic Party:

Senator John Kerry: 29.81%
Governor Howard Dean: 29.62%
General Wesley Clark: 23.1%
Senator John Edwards: 12.07%
Senator Joe Lieberman: 5.2%
Al Sharpton: .2%

 Republican Primary:

Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 53.7%
President George W. Bush: 47.3%

Media Headlines

“NIGHTHORSE TAKES NEW HAMPSHIRE”
“BUSH TROUNCED IN NH”
“BUSH LOSES NH”
“BUSH DONE FOR?”

“Personally, I think the President should bow out now. He’s already made a big enough fool of himself by mishandling the war. The respectable thing to do is to leave the race. Senator Campbell is much more competent than the President.” – Senator John Kerry

“Nothing surprises me with this guy in the White House.” – Governor Dean on President Bush



Mini Tuesday Results

South Carolina Democratic Primary Results:

Senator John Edwards:  45%
Governor Howard Dean:  30%
Governor Wesley Clark: 7%
Senator John Kerry: 5%

South Carolina Republican Primary Results:

President George W. Bush: 58%
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 42%

Missouri Democratic Primary Results:

Governor Howard Dean: 50.6%
Senator John Kerry: 24.7%
Senator John Edwards: 8.7%
Governor Wesley Clark:  4.4%

Missouri Republican Primary Results:

President George W. Bush: 51.3%
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 48.7%

Oklahoma Democratic Primary Results:

Governor Wesley Clark: 30%
Governor Howard Dean: 29.5%
Senator John Kerry: 26.8%
Senator John Edwards: 13.7%

Oklahoma Republican Primary Results:

President George W. Bush: 62.3%
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 37.7%

Arizona Democratic Primary Results:

Governor Howard Dean: 45%
Governor Wesley Clark: 23%
Senator John Kerry: 22%
Senator John Edwards: 10%

Arizona Republican Primary Results:

Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 55.1%
President George W. Bush: 44.9%


Delaware Democratic Primary Results:

Governor Howard Dean:  52%
Senator John Kerry: 26%
Senator John Edwards: 17%
Governor Wesley Clark: 5%

Delaware Republican Primary Results:

President George W. Bush: 50.2%
Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 49.8%

New Mexico Democratic Primary Results:

Governor Howard Dean: 52%
Senator John Kerry: 26%
Senator John Edwards: 12%
Governor Wesley Clark: 11%

New Mexico Republican Primary Results:

Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 51.3%
President George W. Bush: 48.7%

North Dakota Democratic Primary Results:

Governor Howard Dean: 50.2%
Senator John Kerry: 32%
Senator John Edwards: 17.8%
Governor Wesley Clark: 8%

North Dakota Republican Primary Results:

Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell: 56.3%
President George W. Bush: 43.7%

Following mini-Tuesday, General Wesley Clark leaves the race and endorses Senator John Kerry.  John Edwards, seeing no path forward, suspends his campaign for the Democratic nomination.

[FEMA Camp Administrator]

Cool. I wouldn't vote for Campbell in the (2004) primary, but definitely in the general. Can we see primary maps?

[Svensson]

Oh, this is going to be good.

[sentinel]

I won't make a map for the Democratic primaries --it's going to end fairly quickly. The Republican primaries on the other hand....

Republican Primary Map

Red - President George W. Bush - 147 delegates
Blue - Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell- 87 delegates

*I'm using winner take all for all races.

[Incipimus iterum]

Keep it up Campbell for President

[sentinel]

Headlines following Mini Tuesday

“BUSH ON THE RUN”

“DEAN WRAPS EM UP”

“LOOKS LIKE DEAN FOR DEMS”

“NIGHTHORSE TAKES 3, BUSH 4.”

“Campbell giving Bush race of his life”

“President Bush agrees to debate Senator Campbell”

“DEAN CALLS BUSH ADMINISTRATION ‘FIASCO’ & ‘UTTER CHAOS’”

"3 STATES SAY NO TO BUSH"

February 2003 continued

After Mini Tuesday the Bush campaign went into panic mode. The first wave of Karl Rove attack ads against Ben Campbell attempted to make a negative out of Campbell’s Native American heritage but the Campbell campaign responded by calling the attacks “childish” and “unbecoming of the President to call someone like Senator Ben Campbell un-Americna.”
Presumptive Democratic nominee Howard Dean even responded saying “Look at that, George Bush is calling one of the leaders, in his own party, in the Senate un-American. They’re scared, and his true colors are showing.”

Unfortunately in February a video showing an American contractor being beheaded by Iraqi militants aired on TV.  Bush’s approval rating sank to 35% by the end  of February 2003 after admitting in a debate with Senator Campbell that he had a “miscalculation of what the conditions would be” in a postwar Iraq. The debate was one of the most watched in American history, with viewers giving Campbell a decisive victory.

On Super Tuesday on March 2nd 2004, Senator Ben Campbell would win victories in California, Connecticut, Maryland, Ohio, Rhode Island, Vermont and Minnesota.

President Bush would take only Georgia that day. Simultaneously Howard Dean would win a clean-sweep and push Senator John Kerry out of the race. Kerry would go on to endorse Howard Dean.

[sentinel]

Red - President George W. Bush of Texas - 201 Delegates
Blue - Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado - 434 Delegates

[Maxwell]

Dean V. Nighthorse? hmmm...

[sentinel]

Dean V. Nighthorse? hmmm...

If it happens, we should brand it "The Scream" versus "The Nighthorse" haha

[badgate]

Two thoughts:

1. I can't tell if you have the midterms in '03 or not.


2. You guys seriously should listen to "Bat Out of Hell" while you read this tl. It's an experience in and of itself.

[sentinel]

Two thoughts:

1. I can't tell if you have the midterms in '03 or not.


2. You guys seriously should listen to "Bat Out of Hell" while you read this tl. It's an experience in and of itself.

Good call, fixed that.

[sentinel]

The Oval Office

“Mr. President”

“Yes Andy?”

“Sir, we need to talk about your campaign.”

“What about it?”

“I think you should end it. We’re going to lose. I’m seeing the same numbers  you are.”

“Karl thinks I can win it.”

“Karl is one of the reason’s were in this mess. He’s blinded by loyalty.”

“I don’t know Andy.”

“We can recover your approval ratings, and go out respectfully.  Fighting is going to make it worse.”

March 2004 & onward continued

Governor Howard Dean would clinche the Democratic nomination on March 16th 2004 following the Illinois primary, in which he was victorious. Earlier that month Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell would defeat President Bush in Kansas(where he was down in the polls), Illinois but would lose to President Bush in Wyoming and Alaska.

The US economy in March would begin to see bad indicators for the coming year. People were apprehensive about the election and the war which made investers nervous. Those who uttered the “r” word were ignored –for now.

The Bush campaign began to go extremely negative and aggressive in April but Bush’s approvals  suffered as a result –Republicans and independents did not like the President battering his own especially in framing his opponent as “un-American.” By mid April White House Chief of Staff Andy Card told the President “its me or Karl, one of us is going and if you’re not getting rid of him then I’m not going down with the ship.” At the urging of Vice President Cheney, Andy Card resigned the next day.

Senator Campbell would keep reiterating on the campaign trail that “these attacks are signs of a losing campaign. They’re desperate. We need to move forward and these kind of attacks are holding us back.” The President’s approvals would continue to drop and Senator Campbell would win the final two primaries and clinche the nomination.

The Bush campaign would refuse to concede and claimed the President would be renominated at the Republican National Convention.

Final Republican Results:

2,266 total delegates, 1,134 needed for nomination

Red – President George W. Bush – 772 Delegates (32.1%)
Blue – Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell – 1,345 Delegates (59.3%)
Uncommitted – 149 Delegates (8.5%)


On June 9th, after Senator Campbell clinched the nomination Governor Dean would announce former UN Ambassador Richard Holbrooke as his running mate.

[sentinel]

Shortly after Howard Dean’s announcement of Richard Holbrooke as his running mate, President Bush reiterated that Dick Cheney would stay on the ticket in November.  Historians would argue if the Bush campaign actually had a shot on the floor of the convention but at the end of the day, Senator Campbell had the pledged delegates to clinche the nomination.

Presumptive Democratic nominee Howard Dean would congratulate Senator Campbell on securing the nomination. The next day Senator Campbell ‘s campaign would leak a list of potential Vice Presidential picks:

Short List for Senator Campbell’s Vice Presidential Pick:

Senator John McCain of Arizona
Governor Christine Todd Whitman of New Jersey
Senator Lamar Alexander of Tennessee
Governor William Weld of Massachusetts
Governor Pete Wilson  of California
Senator George Voinovich of Ohio
Senator John Danforth of Missouri
Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska

July 2004 Polling

Dean (D-VT): 51%
Campbell (R-CO): 38%
Undecided:  11%

Dean (D-VT): 59%
Bush (R-TX): 25%
Undecided: 16%

Dean (D-VT): 45%
Campbell (R-CO): 29%
Bush (I-TX): 23%
Undecided: 3%

Is Richard Holbrook qualified to be Vice President?
Yes: 63%
No:  21%
Not Sure/No Opinion:  17%

President George W. Bush Approval Rating:

Approve/Strongly Approve: 17%
Disapprove/Strongly Disapprove:  70%
Not Sure/No Opinion: 13%

Should President George W. Bush end his campaign for the presidency?
Yes:  73%
No: 13%

[MRX]

Looks good so far.

[Maxwell]

I would love Campbell/Weld, Campbell/Wilson, or Campbell/Hagel, though in 04 McCain is still fairly popular so he'd be a smart choice.

Dear lord Bush, save yourself!

[sentinel]

July 2004 Continued

With the Democratic National Convention quickly approaching, Senator Campbell was in no rush to make a decision for Vice President. Campbell told reporters that he would reveal his decision after the DNC.  Around the same time the DNC would announce that Senator John Kerry, a Vietnam War Veteran, would give the keynote address.

Simultanteously the Democratic Congress would pass a resolution condemning the President for not giving full access and disclosure in the Abu Ghraib investigation. They would also pass another resolution demanding the President stipulate the US military’s goals in Iraq and a timetable for achieving those goals.  The Bush Administration would respond by saying “Speaker Gephardt is out of line and out of his jurisdiction.”

After a rousing Democratic National Convention focused on the failures of Republican policies in the past four years and hyping the Democratic ticket’s own foreign policy credentials, Dean/Holbrooke would get a bit of a bump in the polls.

Post-DNC Polling:

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 57%
Campbell (R-CO):  36%
Undecided:  7%

The final short list for Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell was rumored to be between Senator John McCain of Arizona,  Senator George Voinovich of Ohio and Senator Chuck Hagel of Nebraska.


After the convention, Senator Ben Campbell would announce his Vice Presidential pick of Senator John McCain of Arizona citing his military experience and national leadership.

The Republican National Convention would be marked by pro-Bush protesters as well as anti-Bush and antii-Republican protesters. The clashes outside of the convnetion between the three protesting factions would on television as the RNC Speaker’s tried to guide the cameras away from the protests and back towards their speeches.  Historians would look back at the content of convention and give it equal if not slightly lesser marks than the Democratic Convention of the same year.

The Nighthorse delegation would control the floor with the dissenting Bush delegation unable to do much about it. President Bush would receive a 15 minute speaking slot asking for their nomination, but in the end, Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell would receive the nomination and Senator John McCain would receive the Vice Presidential nomination by acclamation.

The RNC would receive more viewers than the DNC did but the excitement and violence of the protests outside of the RNC would ultimately steal the attention away from what was happening inside the convention.  Unfortunately, due to that Senator Campbell’s bounce would not be enough to tie the race up on paper.

Post-RNC Polling:

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 52%
Campbell (R-CO):  40%
Undecided:  8%

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 49%
Campbell (R-CO):  30%
Bush (I-TX): 15%
Undecided:  6%

Media Headlines after the RNC

“THE SCREAM V. THE NIGHTHORSE”

“ITS DEAN V. CAMPBELL”

“BUSH DEFEATED, CAMPBELL MOVES ON”

“WILL BUSH RUN AS INDIE?”

[sentinel]

“Honey, phones for you.”
“Who is it?”
“The White House?”
“Do they know I’m here?”
“Told them I’d see if you had left yet.”
“Tell em I left.”
“You really should take it, its George.”
“Alright….Mr. President?”
“Andy, good to hear your voice.”
“What can I do for you Mr. President?”
“Andy, I’ve made a mistake.I want you to come back.”
“Mr. President, I told you before I left what was required if I stayed on.”
“Karl’s gone. After that horrible convention I let him go.”
“I’ll come back, as long as you listen to me this time and not Cheney”
“I will.”

September 2004 Electoral Map with toss up states

Strong Dean: 188
Likely Dean: 60
Lean Dean: 36
Total Dean: 284
Toss Up: 90
Total Campbell: 164
Lean Campbell: 15
Likely Campbell: 137
Strong Campbell: 12

September & October 2004

In early September, the White House announced that the President would not seek reelection as an independent. Bush’s approval rating was at a record low. Upon the return of Chief of Staff Andy Card to the White House, Secretary of Defense Donald Rumsfeld resigned saying he was “unable to work with someone like Card.” An undersecretary would fill the role of Acting Secretary of Defense until the inauguration in January.

Numerous Congressional investigations continued on their trajectory as they looked into subsets of the Iraq war including the Bush Administration’s preparedness and Abu Ghraib.  Since the President refused to comply with Congress’ demands for some measurement of how to win, Congress voted to censure the President in late September.

Meanwhile, the Dean/Holbrooke campaign tried to tie Campbell and McCain to the Bush Administration, both of whom had voted for the Iraq War which was now deeply unpopular. Campbell, who was not seen as a partisan figure, remained decently popular amongst independents but many feared that Senator McCain outshone the top of the ticket.

During the first debate, in response to Howard Dean’s criticism of Ben Campbell’s vote in favor of the Iraq War, Campbell would respond “I voted for the war, I didn’t vote for Bush to screw it up.” The zinger would lead the headlines the next day and outshine anything else that happened in the debate.  Polls and pundits would give Campbell the win.

Dean (D-VT)/Holbrooke (D-NY): 50%
Campbell (R-CO)/McCain (R-AZ):  43%
Undecided:  7%

Post debate polls showed Republicans, and Republican leaning independents, coming back home to the Republican nominee; however, Dean still led with independents and held a slight lead with white male voters.

The Vice Presidential debate between Richard Holbrooke and John McCain turned out to be one of the feistiest in the cycle. Holbrooke accused John McCain of leaving his “maverick days at the door of the White House” and “cozying up next to George Bush.” Holbrooke, when he had his chance to ask McCain a question, asked “If you didn’t like George Bush so much, then why didn’t you run against him?” McCain became visibly flustered and angry during the debate and afterwards polls and pundits would give Holbrooke the win.