The key to winning Kentucky in 2016 would be to not only rack up good margins in Lexington/Louisville (Obama actually overperformed here in 2008 and 2012 for a Democrat), but to do well enough in coal country. Combining Gore/Kerry margins in rural Kentucky with Obama margins in urban Kentucky (he also did fairly well in the parts bordering Illinois and Indiana) probably makes it a Lean R state.
She wouldn't be able to rack up those urban numbers because she wouldn't be able to get that kind of turnout with blacks like Obama was able to.
She'll get a larger share of the white vote, though. That's guaranteed of the next Democratic nominee (since it probably won't be Patrick or Booker).
Bill was VERY popular here in Kentucky, but I don't think the same can be said for his wife. Like I said, this poll is probably more of a referendum on Rand Paul's laughable job as senator than anything to do with Hillary.
