Romania Parliament 2012

[Tender Branson]

Romania goes to polls in parliamentary elections

Polling stations have opened in Romania in the country's parliamentary elections.

Opinion polls suggest a win for the governing centre-left coalition led by Prime Minister Victor Ponta.

But the result could trigger renewed political instability as Romania negotiates a vital loan agreement with the International Monetary Fund (IMF).

Mr Ponta and centre-right President Traian Basescu have been bitter enemies since Mr Ponta's government tried to impeach the president last July.

Analysts say that, in the event of Mr Ponta's Social Liberal Union (USL) winning, the president may ask someone other than Mr Ponta to form a government.

The BBC's Nick Thorpe in Romania says President Basescu has said clearly he will use his powers to appoint a prime minister "in the national interest".

Given the enmity the president feels towards Mr Ponta, it is hard to imagine he has the leader of the Social Liberal Union (USL) in mind, he says.

But any attempt to appoint someone else may result in a constitutional crisis, our correspondent adds.

If the USL wins a clear majority, analysts say the president may ask someone other than Mr Ponta from within USL to become prime minister, using the argument that the USL is not a party but a coalition.

If the USL falls short of a majority, Mr Basescu could ask one of his allies in the Right Romania Alliance (ARD) to try to form a coalition.

Opinion polls have put the ARD in second place.

http://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-20656359

http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Romanian_legislative_election,_2012

[Tender Branson]

Results+Map:

http://www.antena3.ro/alegeriparlamentare2012

Polls close at 9pm local time, which is 8pm here and 2pm EST for the Americans.

Exit Polls should be available then as well, but the Ponta-party is expected to win big anyway.

[Tender Branson]

Here's a nice summary:

Romania's December 9 parliamentary elections: actors, context, stakes

Some 18.2 million Romanian voters are expected to cast their ballots in parliamentary elections on December 9. The poll is a key moment in a political storm pitching the governing alliance of Social Democrats and Liberals (USL) against President Traian Basescu over the past seven months, a storm which sparked rising Western criticism of Romania's compliance with the rule of law and European values and amplified the stakes for the economic, political and international future of the country.

The main political forces battling for the votes of the people this Sunday are:

    the Social Liberal Union (USL), the governing coalition formed by incumbent PM Victor Ponta's Social Democrats (PSD) and incumbent Senate speaker Crin Antonescu's National Liberal Party-Conservative Party group. USL is seen as favorite in the polls, with questions remaining about the eventual value of their majority presence in the Parliament

    the Democratic Liberal Party (PDL) - who have supported President Traian through most of his past eight years in office, but who lost government to the USL this spring - and their allies in the recently formed Right Romania Alliance (ARD), bringing together PDL and several other minor political groups.

    the populist Dan Diaconescu Popular Party (PPDD) run by TV showman turned politician Dan Diaconescu, who came to prominence with his outrageous tabloid TV shows on his on TV station.

    the Hungarian Democrats (UDMR), representing much of the ethnic minority in Romania, facing for the first time another ethnic Hungarian political group, the National Council of Hungarians in Transylvania - CNMT, supported by Laszlo Tokes. It is the first time when this split of forces could result in ethnic Hungarians' representatives failing to enter Parliament.


Thousands of candidates are battling across the country for about 500 seats in the House of Deputies and the Senate (the number depends on the post-vote re-distribution of terms). That comes despite Romanians opted in a referendum in 2007 for a narrower, more focused Parliament of only 300 members.

The vote comes at the end of a month of political campaigning which was lackluster in debates and ideas about economic and political reform, but focused mostly on the lasting political struggle between the USL alliance and President Basescu. Basescu's supporters in PDL/ARD were mostly absent in the campaign, raising question marks among observers about a possible hidden agreement with USL. The President himself did not exclude the possibility of local-level agreements between USL and PDL/ARD.

Basescu was the most prominent opponent of the USL during the electoral campaign, with several interventions in the process in which he questioned the necessity of naming Victor Ponta as prime minister, should USL win the elections. On the other hand, the main message of USL was not about economy, but against Traian Basescu.

The political discourse was harsh for both USL and Basescu, with USL leaders threatening a new impeachment procedure against the head of state, should he refuse to name Ponta as PM or USL as the governing alliance. Meanwhile, Basescu went from pointing to major fractures in Romania's domestic and international development and the USL's breaching the rule of law to calling Ponta a "kitty" and a "liar".

    The first to talk about the possibility to suspend Basescu this time around was Dan Voiculescu, a dominating figure of the USL who had also pushed for the impeachment of the President in 2007 as well as in summer 2012.

Basescu vs. USL and questions about the rule of law in Romania

The parliamentary elections come at the end of a stormy political year when:

    The USL alliance replaced PDL as the governing force in spring, after years in the opposition. The USL alliance - which Basescu and his supporters say is in fact dominated by the interests of influential businessman and media owner Dan Voiculescu, a former member of Ceausescu-era Securitate, has immediately launched attacks on the President - the executive power turning against the presidential power

    The USL proclaimed victory in the local elections in early June. With a strong backing from the population, and with new supporters drawn from PDL and other parliamentary groups, it shortly declared itself as Romanians' choice to rule the country - the executive power claiming a stake on parliamentary power

    The USL - prominent representatives of  which were risking or had already received sentences for acts of corruption - shortly launched a series of moves to dismiss key people and replace others in key institutions of the state, thus allowing a procedure to impeach the President. The impeachment brought Romania to a standstill throughout the summer, drew harsh, high-level European and US criticism about breaches to the rule of law and impeded necessary measures to help the struggling economy - the executive power eyeing the judicial power

    President Basescu kept his office eventually, helped by a lower than necessary turnout at the referendum called by the USL to dismiss him. But since then, USL and the government kept making decisions and moves about institutions of the judiciary and other key bodies of the state, prompting Basescu, his supporters and international officials and bodies to maintain harsh criticism about the non-compliance with the rule of law in Romania and the country's commitments to Western values.

    Criticism reached a milestone moment on Thursday before the elections, when US Secretary of State Hillary Clinton mentioned Romania and Hungary along non-EU countries such as Belarus, Russia and other former Soviet republics as countries where the democratic process is facing problems.


December 9 elections - what to look for

With President Basescu and his PDL supporters cornered after years of austerity measures, but also of discriminate use of state funds by former PDL ministers, USL is seen poised to win the parliamentary elections. But President Basescu is the one to nominate a prime minister, which has to be validated by the Parliament. The nominated PM has to be from among the winning party or, it there's no majority, following talks with political groups. If the Parliament rejects the President's nomination twice, the President can call for a new round of elections.

In this year's specific case, the USL threatens it would suspend the President unless he nominates the proper prime-ministerial candidate - and with President Basescu suspended, USL leader, Senate speaker Crin Antonescu would take over as interim head of state and can make the nomination himself.

But the results of the elections and what is to come still depend on several factors, such as bad weather announced throughout Romania for the weekend, which may lead to a lower turnout unfavorable for the USL; and the historically lower and lower turnout in Romanian parliamentary elections over the past 20 years, from more than 75% in 1992 to below 40% in 2008.

http://english.hotnews.ro/stiri-top_news-13767268-romania-39-december-9-parliamentary-elections-actors-context-stakes.htm

[Tender Branson]

Turnout until 10am was just 4.5%, down from 4.9% at the same time in the 2008 elections.

Overall turnout was just 39% in 2008 ...

[Tender Branson]

Preliminary exit polls from those who have voted until 10am show that Ponta's party will get an Orban-esque 2/3 majority in both chambers. Here are the full exit polls by CCSB:

CAMERA DEPUTAŢILOR

USL – 65%
ARD - 15%
PP-DD – 11%
UDMR – 4%
PRM – 1%
PER – 1%
PPMT – 0%
Altul – 0%
Minorităţi – 3%

SENAT

USL – 66%
ARD – 16%
PP-DD – 12%
UDMR – 4%
PRM – 1%
PER – 1%
PPMT – 0%
Altul - 1 %

http://www.antena3.ro/politica/romania-la-vot/primele-rezultate-partiale-ale-alegerilor-parlamentare-195286.html

[Tender Branson]

Turnout at 2pm local time:

20.6% (up from 19.8% at the same time in 2008)

http://www.antena3.ro/politica/romania-la-vot/alegeri-parlamentare-aflati-prezenta-la-vot-pana-la-ora-14-00-66-de-incidente-electorale-si-amenzi-de-1-500-de-lei-195224.html

...

There's also an updated exit poll:

CAMERA DEPUTAŢILOR 

USL  -  63%
ARD -  16%
PP-DD -  12%
UDMR -  4%
PRM  - 1%
PER  - 1%
PPMT -  0%
Altul -  0%
Minorităţi   3%
     
SENAT 

USL -  65%
ARD -  16%
PP-DD  - 12%
UDMR -  4%
PRM  - 1%
PER  - 0%
PPMT -  0%
Altul -  0%

http://www.antena3.ro/politica/romania-la-vot/cele-mai-recente-rezultate-partiale-ale-alegerilor-parlamentare-195286.html

[Hash]

A better summary of the parties would be:

USL: corrupt authoritarian criminals led by some young douchebag
'ARD': corrupt authoritarian criminals pissed at young douchebag for taking power
PP-DD: probably some idiot who wants to be a corrupt authoritarian criminal as well

[Filuwaúrdjan]

That's quite the landslide (not that that's a surprise, given tehdrama). Is this seen as a high or low turnout election?

[Tender Branson]

That's quite the landslide (not that that's a surprise, given tehdrama). Is this seen as a high or low turnout election?

40% is pretty low (even for Romanian standards).

[Tender Branson]

There are 4 different exit polls:

You must be logged in to read this quote.

So, the USL is clearly winning, but no 2/3 majority after all.

[Tender Branson]

Turnout might hit 41-42%, which would be 2-3% higher than in 2008.

[Tender Branson]

One of the exit polls suggests that the USL, depite getting about 57-58% of the vote, will get up to 62-63% of the mandates in both chambers.

[Tender Branson]

Apparently, Ponta wants to set up a coalition between his USL and the UDMR (Hungarians), which would have a 2/3 majority that could change the constitution.

[GMantis]

Apparently, Ponta wants to set up a coalition between his USL and the UDMR (Hungarians), which would have a 2/3 majority that could change the constitution.

Presumably to get rid of this ridiculous system? But then again, if he'sa left-wing version of Orban, that might not be such a good thing...

[minionofmidas]

Apparently, Ponta wants to set up a coalition between his USL and the UDMR (Hungarians), which would have a 2/3 majority that could change the constitution.

Presumably to get rid of this ridiculous system? But then again, if he'sa left-wing version of Orban, that might not be such a good thing...

A left wing version of Orban would not be able to form a coalition with an ethnic minority party, or at least not keep it long.

[Filuwaúrdjan]

It doesn't make sense in several other areas; Ponta's party comes from the other side (so to speak) of the typical postcommunist political framework to Orban's, for one thing.

[minionofmidas]

It doesn't make sense in several other areas; Ponta's party comes from the other side (so to speak) of the typical postcommunist political framework to Orban's, for one thing.

A man can still be a megalomaniac with no comprehension of or respect for democracy and complete control of his own party. (I have no idea what to make of Ponta, really. It's clear that the authors of *some* of his bad press have no idea either, and it's clear what motivates them, but that's not a statement about Ponta.)

But try governing like that with a coalition partner looking out first and foremost for his own stable voting bloc, and not actually indebted to you. That's not going to work.

[RodPresident]

Romania's coalition isn't homogeneous like Fidesz. They're more anti-Basescu than anything. Main difference is that they'll try to get rid of Basescu early, changing impeachment rules.

[DC Al Fine]

Judging from wikipedia, the main players in the Social Liberal Union are social democrats, free market liberals, and social conservatives. Why is there such a diverse coalition and how did/is it going to hold together?

[Jackson]

I doubt that the members of those parties possess any ideology other than lining their pockets with public funds.

[GMantis]

It doesn't make sense in several other areas; Ponta's party comes from the other side (so to speak) of the typical postcommunist political framework to Orban's, for one thing.

I meant an authoritarian who tries to limit democracy, control the media and subvert the election process to get as much power as possible. Though that's been generally done by right-wing parties in Eastern Europe, Ponta seems to favor some policies which would put him on the above category. Of course, as Lewis pointed out, he won't be able to radically change the constitution while governing in a coalition with a Hungarian ethnic party (he doesn't need them to form a government, but he can't do that much with the current system with a simple majority anyway). Though they might change the system to FPTP, where the Hungarian party will probably do as well as it does now.

I doubt that the members of those parties possess any ideology other than lining their pockets with public funds.

That's probably right on the mark. Though they at least seem to think that austerity is not the only economic measure possible.

[Gustaf]

One of my best friends is Romanian and he thinks Ponta is bad even by Romanian standards.

[GMantis]

One of my best friends is Romanian and he thinks Ponta is bad even by Romanian standards.

I have heard similar, also from an Romanian immigrant. Though my experience is that Eastern European immigrants tend to skew to the right. After all, most Romanian voters don't seem to think that Ponta is that bad.

[LastVoter]

One of my best friends is Romanian and he thinks Ponta is bad even by Romanian standards.

I have heard similar, also from an Romanian immigrant. Though my experience is that Eastern European immigrants tend to skew to the right. After all, most Romanian voters don't seem to think that Ponta is that bad.

Correct, working class doesn't emigrate.

[Niemeyerite]

I have a Romanian friend, Georgiana, who's very conservative, too. Her family likes Basescu.