LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[JacobNC]

Do you think the jungle primary is good or bad for Landrieu?  (It will be held on election day Nov. whatever, right?)  I doubt she would be able to get over 50% with the excitement on the Republican side, conservative Democrats & Republicans would have more non-Landrieu choices.  Unless the Republicans running all suck, and people just vote for Landrieu anyway.

[Miles]

Its a negative, no question about that. It would be a nice luxury to have, for instance, Jeff Landry upset Bill Cassidy in a Republican primary.

[minionofmidas]

What would be the difference in pronunciation between Gau and Geau? I'd been pronouncing them the same.

And you claim to be Canadian? Go learn your country's language.

All the Romance languages from late Classical Latin on have two pronounciations for c and g, depending on whether it's followed by an i or e on the one hand, or an a, o, u or consonant on the other. And French inserts a silent e (Italian uses an i) if it wants the soft pronounciation before an a/o/u...

[Miles]

Though its ambiguous as to which race, exactly, he plans on pursuing, outgoing Rep. Jeff Landry hinted at another run for something in the future.

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Obviously, if he ran for Senate, Landrieu would be smart to engage in some Reid/McCaskill-style ratf-cking.

[RogueBeaver]

Some statewide offices will become vacant in 2015. Any idea when people will start announcing for either Senate race?

[Miles]

Some statewide offices will become vacant in 2015. Any idea when people will start announcing for either Senate race?

I'd probably say we should definitely have a pretty clear picture of the 2014 Senate race by the end of this spring.

The bulk of the other statewide/local races should be shaping up after the dust settles from 2014. Candidates there tend to wait a bit longer to formally announce and the timetable between the candidate's announcement and election day tends to be quicker than for federal races. For example, with the two most competitive 2011 races (LG and SoS), Billy Nungesser announced that he was challenging Jay Dardenne in July of 2011 and Jim Tucker waited until August to take the plunge against Tom Schedler.

[RogueBeaver]

With the possible exception of Landry, anyone thinking of challenging Cassidy for the Pub nod? I doubt it but just wanted to be sure.

[Miles]

With the possible exception of Landry, anyone thinking of challenging Cassidy for the Pub nod? I doubt it but just wanted to be sure.

I've heard rumors that John Flemming might get in, but I seriously doubt that he actually does. I've also seen Dardenne's name floated, but he has a pretty good relationship with Cassidy. If Dardenne runs, he'll probably let Cassidy take on Landrieu while he'll wait for the Class III seat when Vitter runs for Governor.

[RogueBeaver]

With the possible exception of Landry, anyone thinking of challenging Cassidy for the Pub nod? I doubt it but just wanted to be sure.

I've heard rumors that John Flemming might get in, but I seriously doubt that he actually does. I've also seen Dardenne's name floated, but he has a pretty good relationship with Cassidy. If Dardenne runs, he'll probably let Cassidy take on Landrieu while he'll wait for the Class III seat when Vitter runs for Governor.

The diaper-clad Birther as guv? Ugh. Just ugh. If there's a decent Dem nominee... since I doubt JNK can beat Vitter without the highly unlikely event of a straight-up endorsement by Jindal.

[timothyinMD]

Landrieu loses 4% off the top for the drop in black turnout that will occur do to it being a mid term year

[Miles]

Landrieu loses 4% off the top for the drop in black turnout that will occur do to it being a mid term year

Not necessarily; here are the trends I gathered from turnout statistics:



- The electorate is gradually becoming less white.

- Even in 2010, a midterm year, the electorate was less white than the Presidential year of 2000 and on exactly on par with 2004.

- The major exception this trend was 2006, however, there wasn't any major federal race (Presidential or Senatorial) in 2006.

- The dropoff in black turnout was only 1% from 2000 to 2002 (when Landrieu win her second term).

- Aside from 2006, which as I mentioned was something of an anomaly, the most severe change among black was from 2008 to 2010, where they made up 3% less of the electorate. If that 3% drop was duplicated in 2014, Landrieu would have a 29% black electorate, which is only 1% less black than in 2008.

[krazen1211]

Though its ambiguous as to which race, exactly, he plans on pursuing, outgoing Rep. Jeff Landry hinted at another run for something in the future.

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Obviously, if he ran for Senate, Landrieu would be smart to engage in some Reid/McCaskill-style ratf-cking.

Allegedly Landry was behind some portions of the rumors about going after John Boehner.

[Miles]

Though its ambiguous as to which race, exactly, he plans on pursuing, outgoing Rep. Jeff Landry hinted at another run for something in the future.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Obviously, if he ran for Senate, Landrieu would be smart to engage in some Reid/McCaskill-style ratf-cking.

Allegedly Landry was behind some portions of the rumors about going after John Boehner.

Hmm, I wouldn't be surprised.

[JacobNC]

Interesting that you mention John Fleming - he voted Friday to dump Sandy victims, denying them federal aid.  That doesn't sound like someone who wants to win in Louisiana, and New Orleans would obviously be NOTHING if it weren't for the federal assistance it received after Katrina.

However, it could potentially help him in a Republican/Tea Party situation where he wants to become the Republican "nominee" by getting to the right of all the other Republicans.  I still don't know, though.

[Miles]

Interesting that you mention John Fleming - he voted Friday to dump Sandy victims, denying them federal aid.  That doesn't sound like someone who wants to win in Louisiana, and New Orleans would obviously be NOTHING if it weren't for the federal assistance it received after Katrina.

However, it could potentially help him in a Republican/Tea Party situation where he wants to become the Republican "nominee" by getting to the right of all the other Republicans.  I still don't know, though.

Also, Fleming is only sitting on about $500K CoH whereas Cassidy is already pushing $2 million.

[Miles]

There's been speculation that the Republicans will use Landrieu's fiscal cliff vote against her. I'm not so sure it would be an effective line of attack; Vitter voted Yea as well, as did 90% of the Republican caucus in the Senate.

[Miles]

A few items for today.

First, Bill Cassidy is out speaking to voters and learning about local concerns in Metairie and Slidell. For those less familiar with Louisiana's geography, both towns are outside of his district, as they are next door in Scalise's CD1. Being a Landrieu, Mary overperfirms in Greater New Orleans; for instance, while McCain won CD1 by a hefty 73/25, John Kennedy would have carried it by a much slimmer 55/43. Cassidy would do well to make inroads in this area.

This article, from the Bayou Buzz, is playing up Fleming as a contender; I'm still skeptical that taking the plunge here would be his best choice. However, I do agree with the article's analysis of Jindal:

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[RogueBeaver]

I doubt he was ever really interested in a Senate seat. He has his eyes on the ultimate prize, methinks.

[Miles]

Meanwhile, up in NC, we finally have something of a timetable from Tillis: he'll make an announcement after the current legislative session.

I didn't know that he limited himself  to only two terms as Speaker. The article points out that there is already some jockeying among House Republicans as to who will replace him.

[Miles]

David Rouzer is looking into another run in NC-07.

Rouzer says that his "late start" in 2012 accounted for his 654-vote loss. Though the 7th district was tailor-made for Rouzer, his primary opponent, Ilario Pantano, got a headstart of about 6 months.

It sounds like Rouzer would announce sooner as opposed to later; Republicans have a bevy of Assembly members in this area, so the longer Rouzer waits, the more crowded the primary field is likely to get.

[JacobNC]

Miles, do you think NC-06 could be competitive if Howard Coble ever retires?  I was just looking through some results and it looks like there were several Democrats who won or came close to winning it on the state level; it looks like even Elaine Marshall came close in 2012.  What do you think?

[Mr.Phips]

Miles, do you think NC-06 could be competitive if Howard Coble ever retires?  I was just looking through some results and it looks like there were several Democrats who won or came close to winning it on the state level; it looks like even Elaine Marshall came close in 2012.  What do you think?

Im not Miles, but the trend here and NC-09 make it quite possible that both of these seats would be competitive if open at the end of the decade. 

[JacobNC]

NC-09 is going to be tougher because it is the only part of North Carolina that is always more Republican down-ballot.  NC-06 is much more Democratic down ballot.

[Miles]

I think NC-09 might competitive by the time Pittenger retires; he's 64 now, so probably within the next 10 years. I haven't done precicnt-level analysis yet, but south Charlotte is trending D pretty noticeably.

Roberts was about the best candidate Democrats could get there this year; its pretty impressive that she only lost by 6 points in a district where McCrory was pushing 70%.

As of last election, both Mecklenburg and Guilford counties are trending D at about the same rate. The 9th may be more appealing than the 6th because it has more of Mecklenburg than 6 has of Guilford. Also, the CD6 counties along the VA border are trending Republican; Iredell and Union counties are gradually becoming more friendly to Demcorats.

[Miles]

'Looks like Hagan is learning a few things from Liddy Dole, whom she accused of being out of touch with the state:

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She goes on to talk about being a centrist in the rest of the article, then Democratic and Republican strategists discuss the typical talking points.

Here's an interesting tidbit: If reelected, Hagan would be the first Democratic Senator from NC to win reelection since Sam Ervin in 1968. In 2010, tough, there was also talk about Burr holding the "cursed seat" but he came out winning handily.