LA and NC 2014 Congressional Races

[Miles]

She's competing for Dietzel's political constituency but given her BR base, may compete with Claitor geographically. No idea what the numbers are.

Its okay; I'll forgive you there.

[Miles]

Well, I've been working on my baseline for Landrieu and finally have something.

The whole idea here is that while turnout can fluctuate from Presidential to off years, the percentage of the total statewide vote cast by each parish stays similar. For instance, in 2012, 1.3% of the state's total votes came from Acadia parish; it was 1.4% in 2010 and 1.4% again for 2008. Virtually every parishes exhibits that trend. Even with parishes that are growing, there is little movement. Between 2008 and 2012, Orleans, for example went from 7.5% to 7.9%.

For this, I averaged the % of statewide votes for each parish for the following elections: '08 Pres, '10 LG, '10 Sen, '12 Pres.

This is what Landrieu's map would need to look like for >50% total:



PARISH CHART.


Since this is just looking at her share, its applicable to either the primary or runoff. If the election went exactly like my chart, this would be 50.03% for Landrieu.

I'll probably be adjusting this a bit as the race goes on.

- We'll see how much the Energy Committee gavel pays off in Acadiana. If she could improve on here 2008 numbers in Lafayette Parish, that would be great.

- Winning Jefferson would make be helpful. I have here at 48% for this. If she won it by half of here 2008 margin, that gets here to 50.3% statewide.

- She's always done very well in that cluster on northwestern counties around Shreveport. Cassidy is essentially unknown there, so the slippage there may be minimal.

- Also, my professor pointed out that, generally, as turnout increases, the electorate gets more Democratic. Thats something that this model doesn't really account for.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

Great analysis, Miles.  Think you could do something like that for NC?

[Miles]

Great analysis, Miles.  Think you could do something like that for NC?

Thanks. I'm no Nate Silver, but I think this is a good estimate of what a statewide win would look like.

Yeah; for NC, I like to use the 2012 LG race as a starting point for close races. But yeah, I'll do one of these for NC to take into account region-specific factors for Hagan and Tillis.

[Indy Texas]

Wonder what the chances are of an LA runoff deciding Senate control? IMO that depends on whether Hagan beats Tillis. If Tillis wins on a good enough environment - like Hagan herself - then Landrieu's 51 and done.

How would LA voters know what was going to happen in NC? I thought LA had its jungle primary in the spring and then if a runoff had to happen it happened on Election Day in November when the rest of the country has their "general election." Unless control of the Senate becomes apparent before the polls closed in Louisiana, I don't see how they could vote based on that decision.

[Miles]

How would LA voters know what was going to happen in NC? I thought LA had its jungle primary in the spring and then if a runoff had to happen it happened on Election Day in November when the rest of the country has their "general election." Unless control of the Senate becomes apparent before the polls closed in Louisiana, I don't see how they could vote based on that decision.

The silly CA and WA variants of the jungle primary have their primaries in the spring/summer and have the runoff in November (even if someone passes 50% in the primary).

I really don't want to have Senate control be the main issue of the runoff. I was telling Rogue, even if Republicans won the Senate outright in November, that would even be a better scenario for Landrieu. It would discount her clout on the Energy Committee, but at least control would be settled. That was her narrative when she ran against Terrell: "The Senate is already settled, lets choose who better represents Louisiana, not the Republican rubber stamp."

Obviously, in my ideal scenario, Democrats would still have 51 votes after November. Landrieu is gonna need Hagan and Begich to win their races in November; if they both hold on, its likely Democrats already have 50+ Biden.

[Mad Deadly Worldwide Communist Gangster Computer God]

“I don’t think he wants a repeat performance of ‘American Idol,'" Randy Voller, North Carolina's Democratic Party chair, said of Aiken. "I think he wants to finish first, not second.”

I more or less agree with this.  I like Aiken.  I'd hate to see him go down in flames this way.

[Miles]

Haha; I read your comments before the linked text and thought of Todd Aiken.

[RogueBeaver]

Mitch Landrieu has won reelection.

[Miles]

Mitch Landrieu has won reelection.

We've been tracking it in the Gov thread.

[Zioneer]

Mitch Landrieu has won reelection.

Congratulations Governor Mayor Landrieu!

[Miles]

A few things on the NC GOP Senate carnival.

Highlights from the forum in Huntersville (between Harris, Brannon and Grant)

- Harris is amazed that impeachment proceedings haven't started against Obama.
- Brannon would privatize social security and Grants want the EPA abolished. I guess those planks aren't too far out of the GOP mainstream.
- All three of them are opposed to toll roads, which Tillis has generally been open to in the Assembly.
- Speaking of Tillis:

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Tillis was absent despite the venue's location just across the street from his Assembly district.

[windjammer]

Is there à run off system for the nc republicans primaries?

[Southern Senator North Carolina Yankee]

Yes, 40% cutoff.

[Miles]

Yes, 40% cutoff.

Aside from the LA jungle primary, if I had to pick my favorite US electoral system, I like NC's. A 40% threshold is reasonable.

[windjammer]

And has tillis name recognition? I have the feeling italien will be brannon.

[Miles]

And has tillis name recognition?

He has name rec with 43% of the electorate

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And yes. Brannon is the Italian in the race. Specifically, he's Sicilian-American, like me

[windjammer]

And has tillis name recognition?

He has name rec with 43% of the electorate

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And yes. Brannon is the Italian in the race. Specifically, he's Sicilian-American, like me

Oups my phone is bugging I wanted to say it will be brannon!

[Miles]

One of the LA Republican strategists that I follow, John Couvillon, has a good analysis of the New Orleans mayoral race. I post this here because this is one of his takeaways:

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Despite the polarization in my swing map this bodes' well for Mary's efforts to turn out black voters in the fall. Likewise, while local black groups were working against him, Mitch got 50% of the black vote.

[Miles]

ABC's 14 for '14 series has their profile of LA.

[Miles]

Well, this isn't exactly good PR:

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[International Brotherhood of Bernard]

Well, this isn't exactly good PR:

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If there is a god, he'd let Republicans nominate him

[Miles]

If there is a god, he'd let Republicans nominate him

I actually think God would be more partial to Mark Harris, as he's a preacher

[Miles]

The LSU Reveille must be doing a series on LA-06. They have a profile on Richard Lieberman, the Democrat running.

To be perfectly honest, I kinda feel like a jerk for not supporting him; he's almost exactly my type of Democrat- a Blue Dog who emphasizes education.

Actually, he was a Republican who switched to being a Democrat. How many times do you see that in Louisiana?

[RogueBeaver]

AFP dropping $1.4 million in NC-Sen.