Clinton vs. Santorum

[Donerail]

Clinton would probably clear 400 with ease, but Santorum obviously won't be the nominee.

Also, I'm new here, so can anyone explain to me why the colors on the maps and our state icons are flipped?

Because that's how we do things.

[dudeabides]

Clinton/Warner (D) 59% 409 EV
Santorum/Haley (R) 40% 129 EV

[SPC]

Percentages represent relative probabilities for each candidate:

[Keystone Phil]

What's your prediction, Phil? We all know it's easier to criticize than to add anything of substance.

Today is January 3rd...2013. I'm not in the business of predicting races that are over three years away. And that comment is more substantive than the idiotic predictions above.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

What's your prediction, Phil? We all know it's easier to criticize than to add anything of substance.

Today is January 3rd...2013. I'm not in the business of predicting races that are over three years away. And that comment is more substantive than the idiotic predictions above.

Most of these seem pretty fair to Santorum.

[Joe Biden is your president. Deal with it.]

Great Economy

Clinton: 511 (60.7%)

Santorum: 27 (37.9%)

Fair Economy

Clinton: 481 (57.8%)

Santorum: 57 (40.6%)

lol dominating

[freefair]

I think in such a situation we could be looking at a total wipeout with Clinton getting 49+DC with maybe Utah staying GOP.
Wyoming and Idaho wouldn't be safe if Hillary ran on a "fiscally conservative social liberal" platform

[Keystone Phil]

Hell, Utah wouldn't even be safe! Hillary would get at least 48% of the vote. I also think votes from outside of the United States would be counted in this election. We're talking about a possible Hillary - 782  Santorum - 3  Electoral College result, people.

[Supersonic]

People seriously need get a grip. Clinton isn't some electoral God. Some of these 400+ EV maps are quite hilarious. Santorum would get at least 45% of the vote just from polarization of the electorate.

[BluegrassBlueVote]

People seriously need get a grip. Clinton isn't some electoral God. Some of these 400+ EV maps are quite hilarious. Santorum would get at least 45% of the vote just from polarization of the electorate.

Clinton wouldn't eviscerate a capable or even generic Republican. Santorum would be a much, much worse candidate than that.

I mean, are you guys accounting for the porn-watchers vote? That's a large size of the electorate.

[BaldEagle1991]

Every state would go to Clinton except Pennsylvannia & Utah

[pbrower2a]

Pennsylvania is about D+3 based on elections of 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. That is about 53-47 in an even nationwide election. Santorum lost Pennsylvania 59-41 in a Senate election without the Favorite Son effect, so Santorum would probably lose 56-44 in a nationwide election in popular vote. Santorum remains an obnoxious SOB, and that's not a winning personality for a Presidential campaign. He has probably left a bad feelings in what remains of any moderates or pragmatists in the GOP.

An even shift of votes from Obama'08  is unlikely. Obama probably maxed out in those states in which he got 55% or more, so Hillary Clinton would have her biggest gains in those states in which race cut heaviest into the white vote. Assuming no Third Party conservative who cuts into the Santorum vote, Hillary Clinton picks up all states that Obama won in 2008, all states that Bill Clinton ever won in 1992 or 1996, Alaska, both Dakotas, Nebraska except for the 3rd Congressional District, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.   

Santorum gets stuck with Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, and the Third Congressional District of Nebraska. 508-30.   

[SPC]

Pennsylvania is about D+3 based on elections of 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. That is about 53-47 in an even nationwide election. Santorum lost Pennsylvania 59-41 in a Senate election without the Favorite Son effect, so Santorum would probably lose 56-44 in a nationwide election in popular vote. Santorum remains an obnoxious SOB, and that's not a winning personality for a Presidential campaign. He has probably left a bad feelings in what remains of any moderates or pragmatists in the GOP.

An even shift of votes from Obama'08  is unlikely. Obama probably maxed out in those states in which he got 55% or more, so Hillary Clinton would have her biggest gains in those states in which race cut heaviest into the white vote. Assuming no Third Party conservative who cuts into the Santorum vote, Hillary Clinton picks up all states that Obama won in 2008, all states that Bill Clinton ever won in 1992 or 1996, Alaska, both Dakotas, Nebraska except for the 3rd Congressional District, Kansas, Mississippi, South Carolina, and Texas.   

Santorum gets stuck with Alabama, Idaho, Oklahoma, Utah, Wyoming, and the Third Congressional District of Nebraska. 508-30.   

You should probably consider that the 59-41 loss came during a bad year for Republicans (Democrats won the generic House vote by 8%). Thus, Santorum probably only loses by 6 points in a national election, assuming there is no national wave.

[Mr. Morden]

Pennsylvania is about D+3 based on elections of 2000, 2004, 2008, and 2012. That is about 53-47 in an even nationwide election.

Doesn't D+3 mean 51.5-48.5 in an even national election, or am I misunderstanding the convention?

[Keystone Phil]

Lost a Senate race without the favorite son effect? What the hell does that even mean?

[BluegrassBlueVote]

Lost a Senate race without the favorite son effect? What the hell does that even mean?

Pretty sure he meant that Santorum would get a small "favorite son" bump in a general election that he didn't enjoy in his 2006 slaughtering, since that was against a fellow Pennsylvanian.

I don't think he'd see much of a bump at all, though. Santorum couldn't even win the Pennsylvania primary over Romney.

[Mr. Morden]

I don't think he'd see much of a bump at all, though. Santorum couldn't even win the Pennsylvania primary over Romney.

Didn't he drop out of the race before the Pennsylvania primary, or am I misremembering?

[BluegrassBlueVote]

I don't think he'd see much of a bump at all, though. Santorum couldn't even win the Pennsylvania primary over Romney.

Didn't he drop out of the race before the Pennsylvania primary, or am I misremembering?

You are correct. I was off by a few weeks.

[Cory]

Get serious here people:

North Carolina, Missouri, Indiana and Arizona are close.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

With the economic conditions listed in the OP, some of the landslide predictions here might be pretty close.

With conditions as in 2012, though, the map may look more like this:

, in which case Santorum needs one more state to win.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Clinton would win in such a scenario, but I think that her victory margin would be closer to Obama's in 2008. From what I can tell, Rick Santorum's message of extreme social conservatism and his hardline foreign policy views are extremely popular in the South and parts of the Midwest. Santorum's popularity in those areas would increase even further if he picks someone such as Mike Huckabee or Rick Perry as his running mate. I don't even think Hillary Clinton would even carry her home state of Arkansas in such a scenario and Rick Santorum might even carry Ohio.

Here is what the map would look like:

Clinton/Schweitzer: 353 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee (Or Rick Perry): 185 Electoral Votes

For benefit of the doubt Ill give you the possibility of Santorum holding onto more southern states here then I think he actually would. However Ohio, I just dont see. Santorum may have been a rust belt senator but I don't see him doing well enough in northern ohio to offset Clinton margins. Clinton was very popular in Ohio during the democratic party primary and Santorum actually lost Ohio to Romney while he was still a viable contender. Considering this was his home region I take that as a sign as to his overall electability. I actually think Clinton would do better in Ohio then Obama did against Romney. Simply put Clinton against Santorum would be imo a bloodbath of epic proportions but the best he could proably do is keep the south solid and Clinton in the 370 electoral range.

I may have over estimated Santorum's performance in this map, especially regarding the Southern states, but I was under the impression that he was actually pretty popular in industrial states such as Ohio and Michigan due to his faux-populist message regarding economics.

[morgieb]

I think that Clinton would win in such a scenario, but I think that her victory margin would be closer to Obama's in 2008. From what I can tell, Rick Santorum's message of extreme social conservatism and his hardline foreign policy views are extremely popular in the South and parts of the Midwest. Santorum's popularity in those areas would increase even further if he picks someone such as Mike Huckabee or Rick Perry as his running mate. I don't even think Hillary Clinton would even carry her home state of Arkansas in such a scenario and Rick Santorum might even carry Ohio.

Here is what the map would look like:

Clinton/Schweitzer: 353 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee (Or Rick Perry): 185 Electoral Votes

For benefit of the doubt Ill give you the possibility of Santorum holding onto more southern states here then I think he actually would. However Ohio, I just dont see. Santorum may have been a rust belt senator but I don't see him doing well enough in northern ohio to offset Clinton margins. Clinton was very popular in Ohio during the democratic party primary and Santorum actually lost Ohio to Romney while he was still a viable contender. Considering this was his home region I take that as a sign as to his overall electability. I actually think Clinton would do better in Ohio then Obama did against Romney. Simply put Clinton against Santorum would be imo a bloodbath of epic proportions but the best he could proably do is keep the south solid and Clinton in the 370 electoral range.

I may have over estimated Santorum's performance in this map, especially regarding the Southern states, but I was under the impression that he was actually pretty popular in industrial states such as Ohio and Michigan due to his faux-populist message regarding economics.

He might do decent in a meh economy, but the conditions stated a great economy.

[MATTROSE94]

I think that Clinton would win in such a scenario, but I think that her victory margin would be closer to Obama's in 2008. From what I can tell, Rick Santorum's message of extreme social conservatism and his hardline foreign policy views are extremely popular in the South and parts of the Midwest. Santorum's popularity in those areas would increase even further if he picks someone such as Mike Huckabee or Rick Perry as his running mate. I don't even think Hillary Clinton would even carry her home state of Arkansas in such a scenario and Rick Santorum might even carry Ohio.

Here is what the map would look like:

Clinton/Schweitzer: 353 Electoral Votes
Santorum/Huckabee (Or Rick Perry): 185 Electoral Votes

For benefit of the doubt Ill give you the possibility of Santorum holding onto more southern states here then I think he actually would. However Ohio, I just dont see. Santorum may have been a rust belt senator but I don't see him doing well enough in northern ohio to offset Clinton margins. Clinton was very popular in Ohio during the democratic party primary and Santorum actually lost Ohio to Romney while he was still a viable contender. Considering this was his home region I take that as a sign as to his overall electability. I actually think Clinton would do better in Ohio then Obama did against Romney. Simply put Clinton against Santorum would be imo a bloodbath of epic proportions but the best he could proably do is keep the south solid and Clinton in the 370 electoral range.

I may have over estimated Santorum's performance in this map, especially regarding the Southern states, but I was under the impression that he was actually pretty popular in industrial states such as Ohio and Michigan due to his faux-populist message regarding economics.

He might do decent in a meh economy, but the conditions stated a great economy.

In a case were the economy is booming, the map may look like this:

Rick Santorum would only end up carrying Alabama, Mississippi, South Carolina, Kansas, Nebraska, Idaho, Utah and Wyoming.

[Blackacre]

Clinton bloodbath. Depending on who they pick as running mates, Clinton could win Texas (Lloyd Doggett!) or take florida out of play for the entire election (Charlie Crist) or just increase liberal turnout among Dems who think she's too conservative, giving her bigger margins in the popular vote (Al Franken). Santorum would be toast. He's more gaffe-prone than Romney. Imagine if everything a candidate said in public was a "You didn't build that" moment, except his opponents' warped interpretation of the statement would be correct. That's Santorum.

Though a Santorum/Perry ticket against Clinton/Franken (or Franken/Clinton) would be a damn funny bloodbath

Lloyd Doggett is about as popular in Texas at-large as Michele Bachmann is in Minnesota at-large.

Oh well. A NY democrat fan still dream... Lol

[mattyman]

Seeing these margins, surely a reasonable number of Republican would switch to vote for Hillary which begs the question, assuming someone he's not running opposed, who would vote for Santorum? And why?