2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

I'll go ahead and start the new thread. As we're already getting lots of opinion polls for the relevant elections.

Schedule:

20 January: Niedersachsen Landtagswahl (Lower Saxony STATE)
26 May: Schleswig-Holstein Kommunalwahlen (S-H LOCAL)
15 September: Bayern Landtagswahl (Bavaria STATE)
22 September: Bundestagswahl (German Federal Parliamentary Election)
before or on 15 December: Hessen Landtagswahl (Hesse STATE)

[Franzl]

15.12.2012, GMS, Bavarian State Election:

CSU 49
SPD 22
Grüne 10
FW 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4


CSU absolute majority (49-40)

[Franzl]

16.12.2012, Infratest dimap, NRW State Election:

SPD 40
CDU 32
Grüne 12
FDP 5

Piraten 4
Linke 4


SPD/Green easily retains majority (52-37).

[Franzl]

Two federal polls as well!

16.12.2012, Emnid, Bundestag:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 4

Red-Green with no majority (42-47).



17.12.2012, GMS, Bundestag:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 29
Grüne 14
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3
FW 1

Red-Green with no majority (43-47).

[Swedish Rainbow Capitalist Cheese]

Since it wasn't answered in  the old thread:

Is there any chance Linke-supporters could be convinced to support SDP or the Greens in order to stop a Grand Coalition?

[Franzl]

Since it wasn't answered in  the old thread:

Is there any chance Linke-supporters could be convinced to support SDP or the Greens in order to stop a Grand Coalition?

Sorry. Meant to answer that.

I tend to doubt it. When you have the Left down to 7% or so, like now, you've really only got pretty die-hard supporters left. An overwhelming difference between the East and the West as well. The protest votes from Western states have largely gone back to other left-of-center parties since 2009.

Red-Green's only real chance would be for: a.) the FDP gets thrown out + b.) Steinbrück can lure some CDU voters into supporting him.

IMO:

[Franzl]

19.12.2012, Forsa, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 38
SPD 27
Grüne 14
Linke 8
FDP 5

Piraten 3


First time in a while that the FDP has been at 5%.

Red-Green with no majority. (41-51); Black-Yellow with no majority. (43-49)

Particularly amusing that the governing coalition is actually 2% ahead of red-green.

[Antonio the Sixth]

LOL, so the right coalition now actually gets more votes?

[Leftbehind]

Wish the Pirates would eff off.

[Franzl]

Wish the Pirates would eff off.

They have pretty much. I wouldn't assume that the remaining 3% would automatically go to SPD or Greens.

[Leftbehind]

Well that's part of their problem: they obfuscate the national picture with their rag-tag support. I am pleased their bubble has burst, though.

[Dereich]

I know they won't join a red-green coalition, but surely Linke could be convinced to give red-green confidence and supply, right?

[Franzl]

I know they won't join a red-green coalition, but surely Linke could be convinced to give red-green confidence and supply, right?

Definitely. But I doubt the SPD will allow that situation.

[DL]

I don't see what the issue is. In the Netherlands and in all the Scandinavian countries, social democratic parties routinely form coalitions or have vague support agreements with far left/Communist parties. Why is this so taboo in Germany?

[MaxQue]

I don't see what the issue is. In the Netherlands and in all the Scandinavian countries, social democratic parties routinely form coalitions or have vague support agreements with far left/Communist parties. Why is this so taboo in Germany?

Surely ever heard of the GDR?

[Franzl]

20.12.2012, Allensbach/FAZ, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 37,5
SPD 30
GRüne 14
Linke 6,5

FDP 4,5
Piraten 3,5

SPD/Green almost at majority (44-44).

[Franzl]

21.12.2012, Infratest/dimap, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 30
Grüne 13
Linke 7

FDP 4
Piraten 3

SPD/Green with no majority (43-47).

[Tender Branson]

New Niedersachsen poll by INFO GmbH for Focus:

38.5 CDU
33.0 SPD
12.5 Greens
  4.5 Pirates
  4.0 Left
  3.5 FDP
  4.0 Others

Majority for SPD-Greens (45.5-38.5)

[Franzl]

23.12.2012, Emnid, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU 40
SPD 28
Grüne 13
Linke 8

FDP 4
Piraten 4
others 3

SPD-Green with no majority (41-48).

[Antonio the Sixth]

Epic fail is epic.

[RogueBeaver]

All roads lead to Merkel. Wasn't a Black-Green coalition also being mooted a while back too? Though obviously most likely is still a Grand with the remaining FDP tacked on.

[Vosem]

Interesting -- I hadn't really followed the 2012 thread, but considering the federal election will be taking place (and a desire to rectify my general lack of knowledge about German politics), I'll be watching this one much more closely.

Not much to add besides that at the moment, however...

[Franzl]

All roads lead to Merkel. Wasn't a Black-Green coalition also being mooted a while back too? Though obviously most likely is still a Grand with the remaining FDP tacked on.

It's certainly not impossible, but I wouldn't bet on black-green.

[Middle-aged Europe]

It's either CDU+FDP, CDU+SPD, or SPD+Greens.... with CDU+SPD being the most likely outcome at this point.

Forget about CDU+Greens, SPD+Greens+FDP, SPD+Greens+Left or any other wishful thinking-type coalition.

[Franzl]

It's either CDU+FDP, CDU+SPD, or SPD+Greens.... with CDU+SPD being the most likely outcome at this point.

Forget about CDU+Greens, SPD+Greens+FDP, SPD+Greens+Left or any other wishful thinking-type coalition.

Probabilities at this point, if you ask me:

CDU/SPD 65%
SPD/Green 20%
SPD/CDU 10%
other (the likliest being CDU/Green) 5%