2013 Elections in Germany
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Author Topic: 2013 Elections in Germany  (Read 269601 times)
Franzl
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« Reply #575 on: April 09, 2013, 12:05:27 PM »

Emnid, 09.04.2013, Saxony state elections:

CDU: 43%
Linke: 19%
SPD: 16%
Grüne: 7%
FDP: 5%

NPD: 4%
Piraten: 4%


CDU-FDP retains their majority (48-42).
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Franzl
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« Reply #576 on: April 10, 2013, 03:05:50 AM »

Forsa, 10.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 9%
FDP: 6%

Piraten: 3%

CDU-FDP narrowly retains majority (47-46).

If there were a direct chancellor vote:

Merkel: 57%
Steinbrück: 19%
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palandio
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« Reply #577 on: April 10, 2013, 03:40:27 AM »

In the East the SPD has slight chances of winning in Gotha-Ilmkreis (Thuringia), Leipzig II (Saxony) and in the western-most electoral district of Mecklenburg, though the most likely outcome is that they win in none of them.

In Hamburg they will likely rebound in Eimsbüttel (though even the Greens could win there) because the proportional vote in 2009 was still favorable for them and their "only" problem was personal. Hamburg-Wandsbek and particularly Hamburg-Nord will be more difficult.

On the national level much depends on turnout:
In 1998 CDU+CSU+FDP were at 20.41 million votes, far from a majority.
In 2002 CDU+CSU+FDP were at 22.02 million votes, no majority.
In 2005 CDU+CSU+FDP were at 21.28 million votes, no majority.
In 2009 they got 20.97 million votes, which was enough for a majority in the Bundestag.

The SPD went from 20.18 million votes in 1998 to 18.49 in 2002 to 16.19 in 2005 to 9.99 in 2009... Their main is turnout.

My prediction:
CDU+CSU 17.3 million votes (up from 14.66)
SPD 10.8 million votes (up from 9.99)
Greens 6.4 million votes (up from 4.64)
Left 3.4 million votes (down from 5.16)
FDP 3.3 million votes (down from 6.32)
Pirates 1.0 million votes (up from 0.85)
AfD 1.0 million votes (up from 0.00)
NPD 0.4 million votes (down from 0.64)
Others 1.0 million votes (down from 1.12)
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #578 on: April 10, 2013, 03:53:45 AM »

Forsa, 10.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 9%
FDP: 6%

Piraten: 3%

CDU-FDP narrowly retains majority (47-46).

If there were a direct chancellor vote:

Merkel: 57%
Steinbrück: 19%

He gets even less than the 2009-like low result of his party ?

EPIC FAIL.

Even I would (hypothetically) vote for Merkel ... as a Green voter.
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Rob Bloom
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« Reply #579 on: April 12, 2013, 04:49:08 AM »


Even I would (hypothetically) vote for Merkel ... as a Green voter.

Maybe I would, too.
That is, if I knew where she stands on any issue. She just doesn't take a stand and won't get on the record on anything, whether it's the NPD ban, the future development of the "energiewende" (energy transformation) or the treatment of nuclear waste.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #580 on: April 12, 2013, 09:16:08 AM »

Hah: Steinbruck is even losing on "social justice." Part of that's because Merkel has galloped to the centre, but for a social democrat to be losing on social justice... Jeebus. He also "borrowed" his campaign slogan from a temporary jobs agency.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/12/us-germany-politics-poll-idUSBRE93B0HN20130412

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Franzl
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« Reply #581 on: April 12, 2013, 09:19:33 AM »

Hah: Steinbruck is even losing on "social justice." Part of that's because Merkel has galloped to the centre, but for a social democrat to be losing on social justice... Jeebus. He also "borrowed" his campaign slogan from a temporary jobs agency.

http://www.reuters.com/article/2013/04/12/us-germany-politics-poll-idUSBRE93B0HN20130412



Has Steinbrück hired Mitt Romney as his campaign manager?
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #582 on: April 12, 2013, 09:29:41 AM »

Romney and/or Biden? Merkel doesn't even need to put up any attack ads, they're writing themselves. Steinbruck also stood by his slogan, saying that what the public wants "is less selfishness and more public welfare."
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change08
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« Reply #583 on: April 12, 2013, 12:22:41 PM »

When you're that far ahead and your opponent's numbers are in the toilet, you don't need attacks.
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Franzl
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« Reply #584 on: April 12, 2013, 06:24:04 PM »
« Edited: April 12, 2013, 06:26:19 PM by Franzl »

Infratest dimap, 13.04.2012, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 42%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 15%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 2%
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Peter the Lefty
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« Reply #585 on: April 12, 2013, 08:24:48 PM »

Yayy!  Black-yellow just might win this yet!  And no, I haven't suddenly become a conservative.  Any social democrat has reason to prefer black-yellow over black-red, for all of the following reasons:
1. The SPD deserves a good thrashing for picking Steinbrück as its candidate
2. There will be ZERO policy difference between a black-red coalition and a black-yellow one
3. If the SPD remains in opposition, then it can wait it out for incumbency fatigue with Merkel and the CDU to take its toll and win in 2017.  A second grand coalition will destroy any possibility of it getting back into power until 2021 at VERY least, most likely not until 2025. 
4. If a shred of social democracy manages to find its way back into the SPD's philosophy, it will be while the party's in opposition.  It can't have an ideological battle while in government.
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RogueBeaver
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« Reply #586 on: April 12, 2013, 08:55:39 PM »

Catch-22: moving leftwards to recapture lost votes on that flank, or stay the centre-left course to keep floating votes while leaving the left flank alone? Steinbruck clearly prefers the latter and his "adjustment" is painfully obvious. Otherwise I agree with you.

Candidates: Steinmeier got thrashed by Merkel in '09 and lost state government, Gabriel also lost state government. Not miles better either.

Question to Germans: is Kraft from the Schroder wing or the more left than centre wing of the SPD?
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Franzl
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« Reply #587 on: April 13, 2013, 03:46:35 AM »

Question to Germans: is Kraft from the Schroder wing or the more left than centre wing of the SPD?

Certainly the latter.
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SUSAN CRUSHBONE
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« Reply #588 on: April 13, 2013, 03:50:17 AM »


Never mind. (Why did I only see this now?) Don't worry, I'm not actually deciding whom to vote for on this basis, obviously.
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palandio
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« Reply #589 on: April 13, 2013, 04:01:52 AM »

Don't forget voters just staying at home. This is the biggest problem for the SPD. Bigger than floating voters, I would argue.

In my opinion it's very much about perceived candidate quality. Schröder was a very gifted and lucky campaigner, he managed to win in 2002 and almost win in 2005 despite heading very unpopular governments. Steinmeier and Steinbrück as his ideological heirs now get punished by voters who regret their 2002 and 2005 votes.

Many in the SPD had hoped that Steinbrück (who at that time was reasonably popular) would be a good fit:
- moderate enough to keep floating votes
- a bit of tough rhetorics regarding financial regulation and the fight against tax paradises to recapture left-wing voters
- being perceived as a straight-talking, strong politician.

Now the reality is:
- Merkel is still reasonably popular with moderate voters
- Steinbrück is already defined as being a right-winger (by SPD standards), his left-wing rhetorics come over as untrustworthy
- foot-in-mouth syndrome

Kraft is definitely more left-leaning than Steinbrück, Steinmeier etc., though you could argue about how much left-leaning she is actually.
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Middle-aged Europe
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« Reply #590 on: April 13, 2013, 05:01:19 AM »

Would it really hurt the SPD that much if Steinbrück drops out and is replaced by another chancellor-candidate? I mean, what do they have to lose at this point?

Draft Kraft for 2013!  Tongue

And yeah, it really must suck to be a SPD campaign volunteer right now...
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Leftbehind
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« Reply #591 on: April 13, 2013, 06:46:02 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2013, 06:49:23 AM by Leftbehind »

Catch-22: moving leftwards to recapture lost votes on that flank, or stay the centre-left course to keep floating votes while leaving the left flank alone? Steinbruck clearly prefers the latter and his "adjustment" is painfully obvious. Otherwise I agree with you.
Like Peter, I think it's fairly straightforward.

If they're not looking to reunite/coalesce much of the Left, then they're not seriously looking at government, beyond self-defeating grand coalitions. The combined CDU/CSU/FDP vote polling at the moment is at a low ebb when compared to the past thirty years worth of elections (and you'd expect that approaching their third term), and although the CDU/CSU is one of the strongest figures, it seems to have been bolstered by a collapsing FDP - suggesting perhaps that these are not 'floating voters/moderates' but the traditional half (and more) of the population that these parties have always attracted finding their best home, which the SPD will have enormous trouble winning over (and it looks like they're doing just great at the moment!).

Having to convince the SPD to represent the Left (democratic socialism/environmentalism/social democracy), coaxing it out of its ruinous centrism with arguments of electoral benefits is my despair with much of today's Left in a nutshell. Although there's always the possibility if they do jump into another grand coalition, they might be usurped.
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Filuwaúrdjan
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« Reply #592 on: April 13, 2013, 08:07:15 AM »

All of which cleverness forgets that heavy defeats have certain psychological consequences which are rarely entirely helpful; one reason for the presumably less than entirely successful nature of Steinbrück's candidature (including the fact that such a screamingly obvious yesterdays man is the candidate; that's quite some massive unconscious defeatism right there) is the heaviness of Steinmeier's defeat in 2009.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #593 on: April 13, 2013, 08:36:30 AM »

The SPD's problem goes beyond leadership. They are still ideologically tied in the 20th century "right-left" debate, without  acknowledging the challenges of the 21st century to Germany. These challenges are:

1) Globalisation (including helping to define Europe's role in a globalised world)
2) Climate change
3) Demographic change (which is a specific challenge to Germany given its particular age pyramid that is dominated by the 1957-67 'baby boom' generation).

As concerns globalisation, no party has a clear answer / strategy, but the CDU gets most credit from the current government's handling of the Euro crisis, and as the German economy is obviously doing quite well at the moment.

Climate change is the Green domain. Merkel is being credited with being able to correct herself (switching from pro-nuclear to anti-nuclear), and the CDU is trying to increase their competency rating in this respect. SPD positions are o.k., but still suffering from their historic "pro coal-mining" stance, and they can't keep up against the Greens in this area.

As concerns demographic change, the CDU has taken action (e.g. increasing the pension age), while the SPD is completely denying the issue. Trying to maintain the pension age at 65 may be popular with current pensioners, but anybody below 50 wonders how in hell his pensions are going to be paid, or how old-age care may be organised and financed. Demographic change is not a particular CDU domain, though, especially as concerns changing family patterns (patchwork families, single parents, gay partnerships). But, again, it is rather the Greens than the SPD who are pressing forward here.

At the moment, the SPD is completely losing out with respect to all a/m major issues. They might have hoped to win on the "Globalisation / Europe" front with Steinbrück, but his "Italian clowns" comments killed that hope. As "pro-coal" politician, Steinbrück is unable to raise the SPD's profile in combatting climate change (as PM of North-Rhine Westphalia, Steinbrück killed the local red-green coalition due to controversies about lignite mining and lignite-fired power plants). Demographic change is not his topic, and, while he personally probably acknowledges the need for further pension and old age care reform, he does not dare to get in conflict with the official SPD party line.

Hannelore Kraft would probably be able to raise and refocus the SPD's profile on demographic change. She also comes across as less "pro coal".  As Merkel, she is more a "process moderator" than a "straight talk" politician, which voters probably find more suited for dealing with globalisation. As such, she should score better than Steinbrück.

Unfortunately, the SPD is on the best way to become another protest party. As long as they do not officially acknowledge the 21st century, and come up with feasible and comprehensive concepts for how to deal with actual challenges, they will see their electorate further eroding to Linke, Pirates and non-voters, and remain unable to seriously challenge the CDU.  

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minionofmidas
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« Reply #594 on: April 13, 2013, 08:43:35 AM »

The SPD and CDU did that pension age rise together, actually.

And anybody in a blue collar profession over 40 - yes, including fairly unpolitical BILD-reading people - just wonders how the hell you can work to 67 or how a party pretending to be rooted in the working class could vote for that. If you want to pin down the SPD's problems to a single vote, it's that, not Hartz IV.

Without recalculating all the pension formulas etc, that thing was little more than a massive grab into the lower (but not lowest) pensions to finance yours.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #595 on: April 13, 2013, 09:12:12 AM »

The SPD and CDU did that pension age rise together, actually.

And anybody in a blue collar profession over 40 - yes, including fairly unpolitical BILD-reading people - just wonders how the hell you can work to 67 or how a party pretending to be rooted in the working class could vote for that. If you want to pin down the SPD's problems to a single vote, it's that, not Hartz IV.

Without recalculating all the pension formulas etc, that thing was little more than a massive grab into the lower (but not lowest) pensions to finance yours.

In the 1970s, the average job entry age was at 16-17, and life expectancy around 74 years. Today, average job entry age is 23 years, and life expectancy is 82 years. In other words - people now start working seven years later, and die eight years later than in the 1970s. Even without the specific "baby boomers" challenge, pension schemes must adapt to this shift.

The stereotypical blue collar worker that started working at the age of 15 is today representing at maximum 10% of the total population (and I personally don't have any problems with allowing anybody to go into pension after 47 work years, in order to maintain the 1970s standard).

In 2012, total employment in mining, production, construction and maintenance / repair stood at some 8 million people. Add some unemployed, and correct by the white collar share in the a/m sectors, you arrive at around 9 million, around 15% of Germany's total voting age population. If the SPD wants to continue defining itself as blue collar working class party, that is the vote share they are looking for. Otherwise - welcome to the 21st century!
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #596 on: April 13, 2013, 09:28:04 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2013, 10:12:43 AM by wish I heard voices, wish I was a telephone »

Oh, but it does not want to. It's just not attracting anybody else in their stead either.

Of course, what proportion of the working class person who entered work at 15* a) lived in Germany when he was 15? b) is a German citizen? c) votes? d) gets a hearing in the media?

*though it's not as if those who started working physically in their 20s - lotsa people who drift into permanent employment from student jobs after they drop out; also lotsa people who start an apprenticeship after Abitur - don't aquire the same health issues in their 50s...

Thanks to the fact that Grundsicherung is higher now (which is in itself a good thing o/c!) while few lowpaid workers have the kind of spotless employment record that helps in winning a higher pension Roll Eyes, most working class people now in their 50s and 60s receive (sort of) welfare for the remainder of their lives. And if you're the type with traditional preconceived notions about those below you, that stings (and Lafontaine gets good rhetorical mileage out of it.)

The left wing way forward - the only one, really - is to end the charade of a "pension insurance" fund that hasn't in practive existed since 1945, understand Rentenbeiträge for what they are - nonprogressive taxes on income derived from wages - and see them abolished, counterfinanced by an increase EDIT: in the official income tax. That bit somehow got lost here. And preferrably (but this is just daydreaming, not going to happen) get everybody on a unitary government pension. And if that's not enough for you, there's private pensions. But they shouldn't be treated any different than any other investment or savings account for taxation purposes.

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Franknburger
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« Reply #597 on: April 13, 2013, 09:59:59 AM »

Oh, but it does not want to. It's just not attracting anybody else in their stead either.

Of course, what proportion of the working class person who entered work at 15* a) lived in Germany when he was 15? b) is a German citizen? c) votes? d) gets a hearing in the media?

*though it's not as if those who started working physically in their 20s - lotsa people who drift into permanent employment from student jobs after they drop out; also lotsa people who start an apprenticeship after Abitur - don't aquire the same health issues in their 50s...

Thanks to the fact that Grundsicherung is higher now (which is in itself a good thing o/c!) while few lowpaid workers have the kind of spotless employment record that helps in winning a higher pension Roll Eyes, most working class people now in their 50s and 60s receive (sort of) welfare for the remainder of their lives. And if you're the type with traditional preconceived notions about those below you, that stings (and Lafontaine gets good rhetorical mileage out of it.)

The left wing way forward - the only one, really - is to end the charade of a "pension insurance" fund that hasn't in practive existed since 1945, understand Rentenbeiträge for what they are - nonprogressive taxes on income derived from wages - and see them abolished, counterfinanced by an increase. And preferrably (but this is just daydreaming, not going to happen) get everybody on a unitary government pension. And if that's not enough for you, there's private pensions. But they shouldn't be treated any different than any other investment or savings account for taxation purposes.

Without turning this thread into a pension reform debate (there are a lot of other issues you may consider here, e.g. a 'children bonus' on pension insurance payment - would greatly improve single parents' standing on the labour market) - this is the kind of debate I would expect from the SPD (also from the Greens, but they are neither very good in this respect).  Something along the following lines:

a) Society & demography has changed, we can't continue with a 1970s (actually a 19th century) pension model.

b) In redesigning the system, we need to consider its effects on labour costs, and on low wage incomes (the non-progressive taxation effect, and, even more importantly, the fact that the current system is prohibiting shifts from 400 Euro mini-jobs into the formal labour market).

c) On the entitlement side, we need to give attention to special groups such as the "started work at 15", but also persons (typically women)  with disrupted employment due to motherhood and (becoming more important in future) taking care of their old-age parents.

d) We will need a smooth transition - already achieved entitlements are legally guaranteed and as such probably protected constitutionally.

Unfortunately, while there is a bit of debate within the SPD in relation to b) and c), I still miss the fundamental message  of acknowledging demographic change, and anything like a comprehensive model. As long as that is the cases, I prefer the party that is at least recognising the problem (i.e. the CDU), even though their solutions are anything but original, just and future-oriented.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #598 on: April 13, 2013, 10:11:48 AM »


d) We will need a smooth transition - already achieved entitlements are legally guaranteed and as such probably protected constitutionally.

Aye, there's the rub. Because I really don't see how you could ensure a smooth transition. And the court's just incredible record on anything income-of-the-upper-50% related over the past 20 years only makes matters worse.
So brinksmanship is all we're going to get. At best.

Which doesn't affect my original point at all. To reiterate:
The SPD and CDU did that pension age rise together, actually.
And what they did together was to sell one of the involved party's bases down the river.
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politicus
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« Reply #599 on: April 13, 2013, 10:18:18 AM »
« Edited: April 13, 2013, 10:26:26 AM by politicus »

Regarding people with manual labour who are 55+ I think that you simply have to set a certain number of "light" jobs aside in the public sector for a big part of this group - ie. teachers assistens doing the photocopying and helping maintain order in the class room etc. + allowing seniors to work fewer hours with a subsidiary pension. Gradual withdrawel from the labour market is a necessary step.
 
Developing a senior policy for this group should be natural territory for Social Democrats.
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