2013 Elections in Germany

[palandio]

The challenges named by Franknburger go beyond the "right-left" debate, but many of the answers can be tied to the "old" scheme.

1) The government's handling of the Euro crisis is at the same time reasonably popular in Germany and in my opinion totally disastrous. Sadly the SPD in stuck in some kind of in-between situation between supporting Merkel's Euro crisis handling, criticizing her as too soft, speaking about Euro-bonds and arguing against austerity. That all does not fit together. I am not sure what I would do in their place, but having no position or several contradicting positions at the same time turns out to be a bad strategy.

2) Environmental politics are the Greens' key issue, it would not make much sense to make this the SPD's central competence. On the other hand I would welcome a more pronounced SPD position in favor of local energy supply and independence from the large energy monopolies.

3) The third issue is very important but it is also a key example for the hypothesis that left and right are not becoming obsolete. It was the SPD-Green government who introduced the publicly subsidized private "Riester-Rente", while at the same time lowering the pensions for future pensioneers (not current pensioneers as you seek to imply).
At a first glance this idea might seem reasonable. But it has already been stated by Mackenroth and Samuelson that the social spending of an economy has always to be financed by the current production. This does not depend on whether the pension system is capital-market based or a simple redistribution scheme.
Hence the Riester reform was simply a way to help insurance companies earn more money and to cut back the employer contributions to the pensions.
Left-wing? Right-wing? I would argue the latter...
Another issue is rising the pension age. This is difficult. Remember that raising the pensions age does not regard current pensioneers but future generations. It is clear that if there are more pensioneers and less contribution payers something has to change. There are several options:
a) Hopefully the productivity will rise. This would imply that there will be more to distribute than before.
b) Lower pensions.
c) Raise the pension age, depending on number on work years, life expectance and the unemployment situation. (Recall that we still have statistically 3 million unemployeds plus some uncounted reserve plus underemployment plus the unemployment we are exporting to the south with out trade surplus.) In a situation where there is not enough work for everyone this option has similar effects as b).
d) Raise the contributions.
e) Broaden the financing base. E.g. include more tax financing (like other Northern European countries) or abolish the "Beitragsbemessunggrenze" while maintaining a maximal pension (like in Switzerland).
-> In the end I would propose a combination of several measures.

In my opinion the SPD still has its place as a party representing the interests of middle and working class voters (white-collar and blue-collar alike). It's not true that we all have become rich or even richer than before. People just have other jobs where they don't get physically dirty.
Green and green-liberal parties may grow because their natural base (progressive academically educated urban upper/middle class) is growing. That does not mean that all others have to become like them. Call them "protest parties" or how you would like but please accept that on many questions one can find several different answers with good arguments and not just the one TINA answer, the only one valid in the 21st century.

Hmm, this has become a bit lengthy and polemic.

[minionofmidas]

Of course a lot of the "new service workers" do get dirty actually, if not as much as we machos out on the construction sites.

Yeah, Riester's just a subsidy to the ensurance industry. And a complete failure at what it was supposed to achieve.

[Franknburger]

To reiterate:

The SPD and CDU did that pension age rise together, actually.

And what they did together was to sell one of the involved party's bases down the river.

I beg to differ. First of all, the CDU is very much a pensioners' party (just look at any study on their voter structure in terms of age & social status), so the reform touched their base as well - at least psychologically. Secondly, the SPD failed to accept and explain that reform is inevitable. Thirdly, they lacked any political concept on how to deal with the need for reform, so they could not come up with alternative proposals inside the coalition. They might, e.g., have linked it to reform of public officials' pensions (which would have clearly cut into the CDU voting base), put in some kind of exception for people that have already worked more than 45-47 years, etc.

In my opinion the SPD still has its place as a party representing the interests of middle and working class voters (white-collar and blue-collar alike). It's not true that we all have become rich or even richer than before. People just have other jobs where they don't get physically dirty.
Green and green-liberal parties may grow because their natural base (progressive academically educated urban upper/middle class) is growing. That does not mean that all others have to become like them. Call them "protest parties" or how you would like but please accept that on many questions one can find several different answers with good arguments and not just the one TINA answer, the only one valid in the 21st century.

The SPD definitely still has the "social justice / protection" function, and I fully agree that the Greens are demographically, culturally and institutionally (labour union linkage, etc.) not well suited to take it over. That is the charme of coalitions - they extend beyond parties and also comprise their constituting electorates. The SPD also still has the "Volkspartei" function of providing an alternative in leadership / chancellorship. As this, I regard the SPD's current inability to come up with future-oriented concepts as a political tragedy.

Having said that - a remarkable factor of German politics over the last 15 years has been that the ruling parties actually hurt their political base more than the oppositions' base. Greens and the red-green nuclear compromise, plus military engagement abroad, SPD and Hartz IV, CDU and abolishing the army draft and terminating nuclear energy. As such, maybe four more years of CDU government would not be too bad in order to also have us having a female quota for management positions, full gay marriage, and further immigration reform that addresses the upcoming lack of care professionals.  
Last but not least - if the CDU were not in power, we would definitely have an anti-European, anti-immigration, nationalist party  running up to 15% or more. Just look to France, Denmark, Austria or the Netherlands and you know what I mean. The voters / positions are there, and from a fundamental perspective you might argue that they deserve parliamentary representation, but, given Germany's history, I prefer them abstaining or gruntingly voting CDU ...

[palandio]

Ok, I can fully agree with your last post.

A propos right-wing party: How many votes do you think will the AfD get? I hope they won't get over the 5%-threshold and likely they won't but who knows...

[ERvND]

A propos right-wing party: How many votes do you think will the AfD get? I hope they won't get over the 5%-threshold and likely they won't but who knows...

After the Pirates' demise, the AfD certainly has the potential to become the next big protest party.

For the next elections however, they come a bit too late. Studies show that the result of an election is mostly settled ca. 3 months before election day. For now, this means around June. A party only to be founded in April comes too late for that. They'd be relevant if the FDP was close to 5%, syphoning away crucial FDP votes. But since the FDP is really much stronger (I see them around 8-9%), this won't be important, also.

So, while the AfD won't be relevant this time, they could easily become after the election, especially if the black-yellow coalition talks don't go so well (as last time). In this case, the outrage of disappointed center-right voters might foster the AfD.

[batmacumba]

I know that It's an oversimplification (chain transfers, etc.), but It really feels that the pirate craze was nothing but a path for disgruntled FDP voters to go from the Greens to CDU-CSU...






Also, what happened to Linke, did their new, westernized, 'new left' face scare former-GDR voters?

[minionofmidas]

No, their new, sectarianized old-left face scared protest voters.

I beg to differ. First of all, the CDU is very much a pensioners' party (just look at any study on their voter structure in terms of age & social status), so the reform touched their base as well - at least psychologically.

Make that "at most".

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Oh aye. The SPD essentially sold it as selling their base (and worse, the voters they lost to Left or nonvoters and need to get back to have a perspective at forming government without the CDU again) down the river.

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They effectively did that. The pension age is rising slowly, a month a year or whatever it is. People my parents' age and a bit younger are all going "right, so I reach retirement age at 65 years and 5 months, you at 65 years 8 months..."

[Velasco]

I saw a demonstration of a party called Partei der Vernunft (PdV,Party of Reason) turning into Unter der Linden towards the Brandenburg Gate. I was clueless about it, so I asked google. Apparently is a crazy libertarian party (I say crazy because an organization who claims to have the reason on its side it's a bit crazy to my eyes; make this extensive to all parties if you want). Wikipedia says that Ron Paul likes it. The party won some seats in local councils at Lower Saxony and got a 0.1% of the vote in the 2012 North Rhine-Westphalia state election. Chances? Potential to become in the next protest party or something?

[minionofmidas]

Never heard of.

[palandio]

The "Party of Reason" will most likely get results comparable to the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany, the Party of Bible-abiding Christians, the Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany and many others. Funny names have been good to attract a handful of voters, but not more.

There are many potential protest parties competing, why should anyone vote for the PdV? Additionally it is not the only party competing for tea bag votes (cf. AfD).

[minionofmidas]

Not to mention The Violets - Party for Spiritual Politics!

[Zanas]

The "Party of Reason" will most likely get results comparable to the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany, the Party of Bible-abiding Christians, the Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany and many others. Funny names have been good to attract a handful of voters, but not more.

There are many potential protest parties competing, why should anyone vote for the PdV? Additionally it is not the only party competing for tea bag votes (cf. AfD).

Of course among these parties, the Marxist-Leninist one is not just a funny name for the sake of fun, it's at least historically relevant, how funny as you can find it now.

[palandio]

You're right, of course. My main point was that in terms of electoral success the MLPD plays in the same league as the other parties I have named. Communist splinter parties in Germany show almost exactly the same patterns of support as the PdV (some local councillors plus 0.1% in some random state level election).
By the way most of the other parties' names are meant to be serious as well. Exceptions are DIE PARTEI and the Pogo Anarchists.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 14.03.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 41%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

Piraten: 3%

Black-yellow almost at a majority (46-48).
Red-green...nowhere near it (40-54).

[minionofmidas]

The "Party of Reason" will most likely get results comparable to the Marxist-Leninist Party of Germany, the Party of Bible-abiding Christians, the Anarchist Pogo Party of Germany and many others. Funny names have been good to attract a handful of voters, but not more.

There are many potential protest parties competing, why should anyone vote for the PdV? Additionally it is not the only party competing for tea bag votes (cf. AfD).

Of course among these parties, the Marxist-Leninist one is not just a funny name for the sake of fun, it's at least historically relevant, how funny as you can find it now.

the MLPD is not historically relevant. Though the wider environment of 70's Maoist Cultism that it was founded in is.

[Tender Branson]

First time that AfD checks in at a federal poll (YouGov):

39% CDU/CSU
26% SPD
15% Greens
  6% Left
  5% FDP
  3% AfD
  3% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU/CSU-FDP with no majority (44% vs. 47% for SPD-Greens-Left).

SPD-Greens far away from a majority (41% vs. 50%)

...

Also, a new GMS poll:

42% CDU/CSU
24% SPD
13% Greens
  8% Left
  6% FDP
  2% FW
  2% Pirates
  3% Others

CDU/CSU-FDP with a majority (48-45).

[Tender Branson]

New Forsa poll shows CDU/CSU almost twice as strong as the SPD:

42% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for the current government.

[Franzl]

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

[Hifly]

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

don't tell him that or he might resign! We need him for a CDU victory

[RedPrometheus]

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

Well both polls were taken before the convention on sunday so there MIGHT be a bump. But for him to resign now would be even worse now probably.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

This kind of blind extrapolation means nothing, of course, but…

41% CDU/CSU
29% SPD
12% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  4% Others

42% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for the current government.

30 July 2013
43% CDU/CSU
18% Greens
15% SPD
10% Left
  6% FDP
  2% Pirates
  6% Others

That'd be pretty hilarious.

[politicus]

This kind of blind extrapolation means nothing, of course, but…

41% CDU/CSU
29% SPD
12% Greens
  6% Left
  4% FDP
  4% Pirates
  4% Others

42% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  5% Others

47-45 majority for the current government.

30 July 2013
43% CDU/CSU
18% Greens
15% SPD
10% Left
  6% FDP
  2% Pirates
  6% Others

That'd be pretty hilarious.

Yeah, but given that the Greens social profile (middle class, well educated etc.) it seems unrealistic that they could become the major left wing party in Germany.
The Danish SDs seem to have a floor around 17-18% which they cant drop below even in the worst polls. My guess is that it would be something similar with SPD. What do you think?

[Franzl]

I tend to agree, but then before 2009, I would have put the floor a good deal higher than they actually got... So who knows?

[Tender Branson]

Schade Steinbrück alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei...alles ist vorbei.

Well both polls were taken before the convention on sunday so there MIGHT be a bump. But for him to resign now would be even worse now probably.

Maybe there's a negative bump for the SPD ? Previously, the more Steinbrück has been in the news, the worse it became for the SPD in the polls that followed ...

[palandio]

New federal election poll from IfD Allensbach for Frankfurter Allgemeine:
CDU/CSU 38.5% (-1.0% from last month)
SPD 28.0% (+1.5%)
Grüne 15.0% (-0.5%)
FDP 5.0% (-1.0%)
Linke 7.0% (+1.0%)
Piraten 3.0% (+0.5%)
Others 3.5% (-0.5%)

Interviews are from the period 27 March - 12 April.
AfD support is in the 1-2% region, though interviews are from before their founding convention.

Funny that a conservative pollster shows CDU/CSU+FDP at 43.5%, when the others have:
GMS 48%
Forsa 47%
FGW, Infratest, Emnid 46%
GMS 44%