2013 Elections in Germany

[Franzl]

Infratest dimap, 25.04.2013, Rheinland-Pfalz State Election:

CDU: 43%
SPD: 34%
Grüne: 12%

FDP: 2%
Linke: 2%

The governing red-green coalition would narrowly maintain its majority (46-43) despite the CDU's strong showing.

[Franzl]

YouGov, 25.04.2013, NRW state election:

SPD: 42%
CDU: 31%
Grüne: 12%
FDP: 6%

Linke: 3%
Piraten: 2%

The governing red-green coalition would win a landslide re-election (54-37).

[RedPrometheus]

And two new Federal polls:

Forschungsgruppe Wahlen, 26.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 28%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 6%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: -
AfD: 3%

CDU/CSU without majority (40-48). Red-Green without majority (42-46).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/politbarometer.htm

Infratest Dimap, 26.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: -
AfD: 3%

CDU/CSU without majority (40-48). Red-Green without majority (41-47).

http://www.wahlrecht.de/umfragen/dimap.htm

[jaichind]

ZDF federal poll

CDU/CSU  40
FDP            4
SPD          28
Green       14
Left            6

[Tender Branson]

ZDF federal poll

CDU/CSU  40
FDP            4
SPD          28
Green       14
Left            6

This is the Forschungsgruppe Wahlen poll that RedPrometheus posted just above.

FGW polls for ZDF, Infratest dimap polls for ARD.

[HansOslo]

I was discussing German politics with a friend of mine a couple of days ago. And he asked a question, that I couldn't answer. So I am wondering if you guys could shed some light on this. Why are CDU and CSU two different parties? Wouldn't it be more natural if the CDU just had a Bavarian branch?

And is there any real difference CSU and CDU in terms of policy?

[minionofmidas]

After 1945, Germany was for the time being abolished and parallel state parties emerged in the different states, although in the case of the "Christian Democratic" Center/Conservative mergers and especially the Liberal parties, their names varied from state to state. The federal CDU was not founded until 1950, later than the other parties. The Bavarians at this point decided not to join. Because a formulaic compromise by which they effectively joined-but-not was found at this point and the solution has served Bavaria's rulers well, that solution has never after been tampered with. (The talk occasionally arose, especially in the early 80s - when Strauß tried a more "independent" CSU line and Kohl threatened to set up a Bavarian state CDU in retaliation.)

That of course leaves the question of why the Bavarians refused to join in 1950. A quick search didn't turn up anything truly enlightening, but consider: Bavaria had a tradition of not viewing itself as entirely belonging with that Prussian Kleindeutschland. After 45 these feelings revived for a time. The CSU suffered a split in 1947 with the more outspoken Bavarian particularists founding the Bayernpartei, which still exists as a joke party shell but until the 1960s was represented in the state parliament - and which polled 17% in the 1950 state elections and forced the CSU into second place behind the SPD that year. The CSU leaders had reason not to want to be (or appear) subject to Adenauer's Rhenanian leadership in 1950.
Also, the Center had suffered a rather more relevant split during the Weimar Republic, when the Bavarian wing refused the Constitutional compromise with the SPD and set up its own party the BVP, and the two parties usually didn't sit in government together (but just as today didn't compete each other for votes, the Center not running in Bavaria!)

And is there any real difference CSU and CDU in terms of policy?

Occasionally. Being more independent in your decision making, and being required to appear so from time to time to pacify your home electorate, does tend to do that.

[politicus]

And is there any real difference CSU and CDU in terms of policy?

Occasionally. Being more independent in your decision making, and being required to appear so from time to time to pacify your home electorate, does tend to do that.

OK, that was a pragmatic, non-ideological explanation. In many textbooks about European politics CSU is generally described as being significantly to the right of CDU. Is that incorrrect IYO?

[minionofmidas]

OK, that was a pragmatic, non-ideological explanation. In many textbooks about European politics CSU is generally described as being significantly to the right of CDU. Is that incorrrect IYO?

"Incorrect" would be pushing it, but it can certainly be overstated.

[ERvND]

In many textbooks about European politics CSU is generally described as being significantly to the right of CDU. Is that incorrrect IYO?

I'd say the CSU is right of the CDU on cultural issues, but left of it on social ones.

Concerning questions like abortion or gay marriage (which are not very important in Germany, though), the CSU will often take a more conservative stance than most CDU politicians. Regarding the economy, of course both parties are very pro-industry, but the CSU has always been less prone to neo-liberal tendencies than the CDU.

[minionofmidas]

That's not what "social" means in an American context. -_- (And it's not particularly true either, tho' you'll get the occasional populist outburst to support the view. Especially from Bavaria's current PM...)

[ERvND]

That's not what "social" means in an American context. -_-

You're right, but that's the way I'd put it, from a German point of view.

You must be logged in to read this quote.

Oh yes it's true. I have to deal with the local CSU on an almost daily basis, and its core supporters are definitly left-wing on economic issues, even though they'd never admit it. This has a lot to do with how rural, small-town society and economy are still organized. There are a lot of community-oriented, collaborative elements, which are, of course, not based on Socialist theory, but on kinsmanship and acquaintanceship. The "free market" is an idea most rural CSU politicians have always encountered with distrust. In this environment, a rigorously free-market liberal CSU would die off quickly.

[minionofmidas]

Yeah, this is just as true elsewhere in rural Germany though, I'd think.

[ERvND]

Yeah, this is just as true elsewhere in rural Germany though, I'd think.

Yes, but Bavaria is more rural and less urbanized than most Western states (e.g. NRW, BW, Hesse), so the "rural mindset" might be more important for the CSU.

[Franzl]

Emnid, 28.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

[LastVoter]

Emnid, 28.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

That's a really good poll for the left?

[Leftbehind]

Emnid, 28.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

That's a really good poll for the left?

Not particularly:

[Hifly]

Emnid, 28.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 40%
SPD: 27%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 7%

FDP: 4%
Piraten: 3%
AfD: 2%

That's a really good poll for the left?

No, not at all (thankfully).

[Franzl]

INSA/BILD, 29.04.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 38%
SPD: 26%
Grüne: 16%
Linke: 7%
FDP: 5%

AfD: 3%
Piraten: 2%

Black-yellow lose their majority (43-49).
Red-green still far from their own majority (42-50).

[Franzl]

Forsa, 30.04.2013, Berlin (state election)

CDU: 28%
SPD: 24%
Grüne: 21%
Linke: 12%
Piraten: 5%

others: 10%

[Leftbehind]

lol absurd.

[Franzl]

Forsa, 01.05.2013, Federal Election:

CDU/CSU: 39%
SPD: 23%
Grüne: 14%
Linke: 8%
FDP: 5%

AfD: 3%
Piraten: 3%
others: 5%


Black-yellow almost at a majority (44-45).
Red-green = epic fail (37-52).

[batmacumba]

No, their new, sectarianized old-left face scared protest voters.

Oh! So I've got a completly inverted perception about Kipping and the Ema.Li current!?!
I guess they are those rabious self-importante, self-absorbed, arrogant, self-styled 'extremists' then? Just like old Petistas...


Anyway, that's the state of things:

[minionofmidas]

No, their new, sectarianized old-left face scared protest voters.

Oh! So I've got a completly inverted perception about Kipping and the Ema.Li current!?!

No, I'm thinking Wagenknecht etc and the remnants of the old West German DKP and trot groups, with the unexpected addition of Lafontaine to their ideological ranks. Kipping, within the intra-party scheme of things, is center (and kinda new-left). Her cochair is very much old-left (and West German) - and while not biographically that kind of old-left he's their candidate.

[batmacumba]

No, their new, sectarianized old-left face scared protest voters.

Oh! So I've got a completly inverted perception about Kipping and the Ema.Li current!?!

No, I'm thinking Wagenknecht etc and the remnants of the old West German DKP and trot groups, with the unexpected addition of Lafontaine to their ideological ranks. Kipping, within the intra-party scheme of things, is center (and kinda new-left). Her cochair is very much old-left (and West German) - and while not biographically that kind of old-left he's their candidate.

But they were around previously. Why are they impacting more, now - weakness of the current leadership?