2013 Elections in Germany

[Tender Branson]

New GMS poll for Bayern (Sept. state elections):

47% CSU
20% SPD
13% Greens
  8% FW
  3% FDP
  9% Others

47-41 majority for the CSU.

[Franzl]

Armer Ude

[Hamma]

Is it confirmed that the Hesse state elections will be held September 22nd?

[mubar]

Is it confirmed that the Hesse state elections will be held September 22nd?

Yes, already in March. See here for the official announcement:

https://stk.hessen.de/presse/pressemitteilung/hessisches-kabinett-legt-22-september-2013-als-termin-fuer-die-wahl-des

[Tender Branson]

CSU is now in a nepotism scandal (many CSU MP's employed their wifes/husbands/children etc. over the past years and paid them with taxpayer money). And then there's Uli Hoeneß of course.

[ERvND]

CSU is now in a nepotism scandal (many CSU MP's employed their wifes/husbands/children etc. over the past years and paid them with taxpayer money). And then there's Uli Hoeneß of course.

This won't change a thing, however. The fact that corruption and nepotism flourish inside the CSU is well known and nothing new for the electorate. It's tolerated as long as the Bavarian economy prospers and produces enough windfall for most voters, which is the case right now.

[Tender Branson]

Infratest dimap has 2 new Saarland polls out:

FEDERAL



STATE



...

Also:

"Should Saarland remain a state on its own, or should it be merged with Rheinland-Pfalz ?"



by party:



Direct vote for Governor:



http://www.sr-online.de/sronline/nachrichten/politik_wirtschaft/saarlandtrend/saarlandtrend_05_2013_100.html

[minionofmidas]

Hessian FDP Landtag backbencher quits FDP, joins AfD.

This is after barely attending the Landtag during the past six months, ever since it became apparent he wouldn't be renominated. Lol.

[Tender Branson]

Latest Baden-Württemberg poll by Infratest dimap:

Is the state moving in the right or wrong direction ?



State election poll:



Federal election poll:



Job Approval Rating of Governor Kretschmann (Greens)



http://www.swr.de/nachrichten/bw/-/id=1622/nid=1622/did=11434254/15uu3n8/index.html

[Tender Branson]

Kretschmann even gets majority approval from CDU-voters:

[GMantis]

But as popular as he is, he still can't push the The Greens to first place...

[Tender Branson]

But as popular as he is, he still can't push the The Greens to first place...

28% for the Greens in a conservative state like BW is still rather huge though ...

And you have to consider that the CDU is very strong at the moment in Germany, so 1st place wouldn't even be possible if more than 80% approved of Kretschmann.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

But as popular as he is, he still can't push the The Greens to first place...

Well, when you have two major left-wing parties and one major right-wing party, that does tend to be difficult.

[Hans-im-Glück]

Since 2008, I've voted CDU in elections at most levels (except for 1 or 2 defections to the FDP in my...stupid...teenage years.)

I think I've honestly turned into a social democrat, more or less, but I still believe in Merkel's competence and...with some reservations...tend to value her overall leadership at EU level. But ideological considerations, and the feeling that black-yellow doesn't stand for anything, are leading to me considering going Green. Problem is I really don't think Steinbrück would be any good.

Glad there's still 5 months to go...

Hey   I was some time not active in this Forum, but I can't believe what I read. Franzl want to vote the Greens!!!!!!!! This can't be the reality. I must live in something like the Matrix

[GMantis]

Also:

"Should Saarland remain a state on its own, or should it be merged with Rheinland-Pfalz ?"



by party:

Has someone seriously suggested this (apart from the Greens, obviously)?

[minionofmidas]

The political caste has been occasionally chattering about the need to reduce the number of states since 1949. Nothing ever comes off it of course - the only reform proposals to engender public support are ones that increase the number of states, not decrease it.

[Tender Branson]

New Hessen state election poll by "dimap" for the Hessen-CDU:

39% CDU
29% SPD
17% Greens
  4% Left
  4% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  3% Others

46-39 majority for SPD/Greens over CDU.

[Jens]

The political caste has been occasionally chattering about the need to reduce the number of states since 1949. Nothing ever comes off it of course - the only reform proposals to engender public support are ones that increase the number of states, not decrease it.

What new states are suggested? (and didn't Baden, Württemberg-Hohenzollern and Baden-Württemberg unite in 52?)

[mubar]

The political caste has been occasionally chattering about the need to reduce the number of states since 1949. Nothing ever comes off it of course - the only reform proposals to engender public support are ones that increase the number of states, not decrease it.

What new states are suggested? (and didn't Baden, Württemberg-Hohenzollern and Baden-Württemberg unite in 52?)

The union to create Baden-Württemberg in 1952 was necessary, because the border between the occupation zones was so problematic. After that there were several proposals to re-create the state of Baden following the old country borders, which used to be larger than the state that existed in 49-52.

Long answer is http://de.wikipedia.org/wiki/Neugliederung_des_Bundesgebietes but to simplify, apart from the Baden-proposals in 1956 and 1970, the most important ones were Oldenburg and Schaumburg-Lippe, both in Lower Saxony. They also had petitions and referenda in 1956 and 1975. These both old countries would be very small states, Oldenburg something like half a million and Schaumburg-Lippe hardly 50000 inhabitants. I think that's the reason that even though their referendums passed, nothing came out of it.

The city of Lübeck is interesting, because it used to be a city state just like Hamburg and Bremen, but had its status taken away by the Nazis. People there also tried to have a referendum for re-creation of the city state in 1956 but failed, and apparently the interest has decreased since then. Understandably, since Lübeck would be a very small state, as it's not a very big city anymore.

In recent decades the most serious suggestion is the state of Franconia in northern and northwestern Bavaria. Franconia has population of 4 million so it wouldn't be a mini-state. In 1990 they collected enough signatures to request a referendum but got declined by the federal ministry of the interior and then later on by the courts too. Anyway, to my understanding is Franconia the only suggested new state with considerable public support, even though there used to be more popular plans.

[SUSAN CRUSHBONE]

The union to create Baden-Württemberg in 1952 was necessary, because the border between the occupation zones was so problematic.

That was the official excuse for the blatant Württembergian power grab, yes.

[Tender Branson]

New ARD/Infratest dimap poll:

GERMANY

41% CDU/CSU
27% SPD
14% Greens
  6% Left
 4% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  4% Others

No majority for CDU/CSU or SPD/Greens. Grand Coalition would be possible.

WESTERN GERMANY

41% CDU/CSU
28% SPD
16% Greens
 4% FDP
  3% Left
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  4% Others

Hypothetical majority for SPD-Greens.

EASTERN GERMANY

39% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
16% Left
  9% Greens
 4% FDP
  3% Pirates
  3% AfD
  4% Others

Hypothetical Grand Coalition would be possible.

[mubar]

The union to create Baden-Württemberg in 1952 was necessary, because the border between the occupation zones was so problematic.

That was the official excuse for the blatant Württembergian power grab, yes.

That's very interesting. I knew that Baden was less enthusiastic than Württemberg to form the southwest state, but had never realized that B-W was actually created against the will of most people of Baden.

[minionofmidas]

...if barely so. 51.1% pro Old States across the whole of Baden. (Note that the Status Quo was not actually a ballot option... though would have been the result if the victorious option did not also win at least three "Abstimmbezirke"). Very interesting to see that it was mostly ancestral Baden that was so very opposed to the idea. Never seen that map before.

[Franknburger]

Today are local elections in the state of Schleswig-Holstein. I just voted together with my daughter (her first vote).

Elections are for community councils, which - with more than 1.300 communities in total, and in most smaller communities only non-partisan 'citizen lists` running - are of very limited national significance. 

In addition, however, city/ county parliaments in the State's 4 cities and 11 counties are elected, and these elections are seen as an important test for the upcoming federal election in autumn, as well as a first judgement on the red-green-SSW coalition that gained power in the State last year.

Some background information: Schleswig-Holstein has a bit more than 2.8 million inhabitants. Of these, nearly 1 million (35%) are found in the so-called "Speckgürtel" ('fat belt') around Hamburg.  Another 700,000 (25%) live in and around the two major cities of Kiel (360 k) and Lübeck (340 k). Smaller population centers are Flensburg (90 k, 130 k with sub-/exurbs), and Neumunster (80 k, 160 k when including the belt towards and the city / suburbs of Rendsburg). The other 30% live in the remainder of the State, which tends to be rural/ small-town, with the exception of the more industrialised cities of Itzehoe (35 k) and Heide (21 k),, the Navy port of Eckernförde (23 k), and the Baltic Sea tourism area north of Lübeck.

Party-wise, the rural/ small-town area is traditional CDU land, especially as concerns the marshes along the North Sea and the Lower Elbe, with quite some FDP strength there as well. The Flensburg area along the Danish border is traditionally going quite strongly for  SSW (Danish minority party), and had in 2008 also non-partisan "citizen lists' showing well on city on county level. Otherwise, the cities are traditional SPD domains, which, however, is losing ground in Lübeck and Kiel but has maintained strength in the Neumunster/ Rendsburg area and other more industrialised towns. The Greens are strong in the university town of Kiel (17% in the 2008 local elections), and the cities near to Hamburg (Ahrensburg, Wedel, Pinneberg, Norderstedt, Reinbek, Geesthacht, Quickborn), but have also made inroads in rural areas (there best showing, 68%,  was in a little village south of Ratzeburg, which essentially consists of an eco-farming cooperative with annexed restaurant). They, however, still tend to underperform in Lübeck and Neumunster/ Rendsburg (SPD strongholds) and along the West Coast (CDU land). FDP strongholds are also in the Hamburg periphery, but tend to be a bit more outlying (car commuting country) than Green domains (typically rail-connected). The Linke performed surprisingly well in the 2008 elections, especially in traditional SPD  strongholds such as Kiel, Lübeck, Neumunster, Heide and Itzehoe, and the lower-income parts of the Hamburg periphery.

The bellwether county is Pinneberg, northwest of Hamburg, with a mix of west-coast marsh lands (CDU), smaller industrial towns (SPD/Linke), and Hamburg suburbs (Greens/ FDP).

Things to look out for are:
1.) Will the Linke (2008) and the Pirates (2012 state elections) consolidate their surprises, or go down again to levels around 2-3%. Lübeck, with a red-red-green city council coalition, is especially interesting to watch in this respect.
2.)  To which extent will national (CUU strength, FDP weakness) and(or state-level trends (good ratings for current red-green-SSW coalition) influence county-level results.

[Franknburger]

For anybody wanting to follow the Schleswig-Holstein results: The official results page is now up (though not yet showing any results).