2013 Elections in Germany

[Jens]

I would really like to se a map of SSW's voter share. From what I can pick up, it looks like SSW lost a bit in the core areas, but gains elsewhere like Kiel

Yes, that would be interesting (in memoriam of my grand-grandmother from Haderslev). If you can provide me with an SVG base map of communities in Schleswig (the State part, not the city/ county), I would do the map. Otherwise, I fear it would take me another four weeks to get the base map ready ..

In any case, the only parts outside historical Schleswig where SSW was running were Kiel, the remainder of Rendsburg/ Eckernförde county, and Helgoland. Helgoland was new, and they got smashing 17.9% there (out of 764 votes in total). In Kiel, they also gained quite strongly. In the city of Flensburg and in Schleswig-Flensburg county, they each lost a bit more than 2%. In Rendsburg-Eckernförde, they lost 0.8%, while in North Frisia they virtually remained unchanged. Leaving aside the many small villages, here a run-down on the larger localities (more than 1.000 total votes)in Rendsburg-Eckernförde:


All in all, Kiel appears to be the outlier  (is there a sizeable Danish community in town? - non-German EU citizens were allowed  to vote as well ). Leaving aside Helgoland, I see no signs of SSW growth in non-traditional areas. Quite some loss around Flensburg (which I would call reversal to the mean), much statistical noise, maybe a slight decline elsewhere, and possibly a bit of gains around Eckernförde.                                      
                                  

Thanks a lot. I agree with your conclusion. I find it positive that SSW isn't punished significantly for the party's participation in the state government.
And no maps from me. Don't know how to make them and havn't got the time anyway

[Hnv1]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

As someone who does not track German politics is there a reasonable explanation for Die Linke's crash in popularity?

[Tender Branson]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

As someone who does not track German politics is there a reasonable explanation for Die Linke's crash in popularity?

Well, first: 2009 was a really good result for the Left (because of Oskar Lafontaine most likely.)

Second: The Left supporters face a demographic problem, they are relatively old and from the East and they die and then they are not replaced with enough young people.

Third: There was a leadership change as far as I know, maybe Lewis or the other German posters know more.

[Tender Branson]

Forsa polled Bayern:

STATE election

46% CSU (+3)
20% SPD (+1)
12% Greens (+3)
  9% FW (-1)
  4% FDP (-4)
  3% Left (-1)
  7% Others

FEDERAL election

49% CSU (+6)
18% SPD (+1)
14% Greens (+3)
  4% FDP (-11)
  3% Left (-4)
12% Others

[Franknburger]

As someone who does not track German politics is there a reasonable explanation for Die Linke's crash in popularity?

In addition to Hnv1 remarks:
1.) Strong economy and labour market, and especially decreasing unemployment in the East, is making the Linke's core message - protest against the "Hartz IV" social security reform, less relevant. Their second core message of 2009  - get German troops out of Afghanistan - is also not an issue anymore (the troops will anyway leave this year).

2.) In 2009 the SPD had been part of the Federal government, while the Hamburg Greens were in coalition with the CDU on the city level. As such, the Linke took up a lot of anti-government votes in the West at the expense of the SPD, in Hamburg / Schleswig-Holstein / northern Lower Saxony also at the expense of the Greens. With SPD and Greens both in opposition now, this motivation has gone away. In addition, the 'protest party' function is being taken over by others as well, including the Pirates and, more recently, AvD. In the East, quite some protest vote potential is also being picked up by various right-wing parties (NPD, DVU etc.).

3.) The Linke's demographic problem in the East goes beyond traditional GDR-time followers gradually dying away. There is still substantial East-West migration, and the East (excluding Berlin) is losing around 1% of population each year (which is a main reason for declining unemployment there).  As such, the relative weight of the East in the overall electorate is going down slowly but steadily.

4.) There have been various leadership struggles on the national as well as local levels. In Schleswig-Holstein, several prominent leaders left the party - Ex-Grüne MEP Angelika Beer, e.g.,  joined the Pirates. Former federal judge Wolfgang Neskovic, currently representing the East German district of Cottbus in the Bundestag, left the Linke parliamentary faction and will run as independent candidate in the upcoming federal election.  The two charismatic 'party elders' - ex-SPD leader Oscar Lafontaine, and ex-PDS leader Gregor Gysi - are omnipresent in the media, but refuse to take over formal leadership functions, while below them, the more pragmatic "eastern" and more dogmatic "western" factions are in constant fight about posts and political positions. Essentially, it is pretty easy to find out what the Linke is against, but completely unclear where they want to go ..

[Tender Branson]

Infratest dimap has a new poll for Brandenburg:

FEDERAL



Compared with 2009:

SPD: +6%
Left: -10%
CDU: +8%
FDP: -6%
Greens: +2%

STATE

[Tender Branson]

This NRW poll (Left at just 3%), would actually mean that the Left is below the 5% treshold Germany-wide if we assume the same uniform losses in other states.

In 2009, the Left got 8.4% in NRW, but 11.9% Germany-wide.

So, the Left did 42% better in Germany than in NRW.

With 3% right now, the left would get ca. 4.3% Germany-wide.

Uniform proportional losses would be a very unrealistic assumption.
The Left's Eastern electorate is more stable than in the West.
Infratest dimap has the Left at 3% in the West (down from 8.3%; -64%) and 16% in the East (down from 28.5%; -44%). These proportions are in line with the 2011 Landtag results, recent polling from other firms and the historic evolution of the Left electorate.

I would not exclude the Left getting below 5%, but to see this you would need a result of barely more than 2% in the West.

Yeah, sure - uniform proportional losses are not going to happen.

It was just a scenario I was pointing out.

But the recent trend in federal polls that were conducted in some states is bad for the Left:

It only has 2-3% support anymore in population-rich western states like NRW, BW and Bavaria.

It has dropped from more than 20% to 8% in the Saarland.

And it's on track to lose more than 10% in the Eastern States.

If these polls are accurate, then the Left is hovering just above 5% Germany-wide.

[Franknburger]

But the recent trend in federal polls that were conducted in some states is bad for the Left:

It only has 2-3% support anymore in population-rich western states like NRW, BW and Bavaria.

It has dropped from more than 20% to 8% in the Saarland.

And it's on track to lose more than 10% in the Eastern States.

If these polls are accurate, then the Left is hovering just above 5% Germany-wide.

Just to complete the list: 
In last weekend's Schleswig-Holstein local elections, the LINKE went down from 6.9 to 2.5 per cent.

And in the Lower Saxony state elections in January, they dropped from 7.1 to 3.1 per cent.


Pretty consistent trend and figures.

[You kip if you want to...]

Is there any form of "Vote Linke, get Angela" sentiment now as well after 2009?

[Leftbehind]

Are these lows or reversals of 2009 heights?

[minionofmidas]

Are these lows or reversals of 2009 heights?

In 2003 the PDS got 0.5% of the vote in the Lower Saxony state elections.

[palandio]

Are these lows or reversals of 2009 heights?

The 2009 federal election result for the Left was somehow exceptional. There are some villages in the Bavarian Forest where they jumped from 2% to over 17% and similar cases. But this has been a one-time protest vote (CDU/CSU/SPD coalition, 2009 economic crisis, pension age 67, Lafo+Gysi campaigning).

On the other hand the Left results in recent elections are significantly lower than they have been in the 2005-2009 period.

But on the other hand these recent results in the West are still much higher than the pre-2005 PDS "zero, something" results.

[Franknburger]

If I recall correctly, when preparing the merger with the (western) WASG into the current LINKE, PDS officials stated they hoped to permanently establish the new party at around 3-4 % in the West. So, in the West its mostly reversal of 2009 heights, even though, considering they achieved close to 5% in the 2005 federal election in the West, the Linke is currently clearly at the low end of their Western vote potential.

In the East, it is different. The 2005 PDS result there was 25.3%, in 2009 the Linke got 28.5%. A 10% drop to below 20%, possibly (as indicated by current polls) only 16%, is substantial and not just reversal to the mean.

[Franknburger]

With one-hundred days to go until the election, campaigning season has now been officially opened, though there is still some business to be finished (equal taxation for gay couples, as demanded by the Constitutional Court, or paving the way for a new search for a nuclear waste dump).
Currently, politicians of all parties are showing up wherever a small town on the Elbe and Danube rivers gets flooded, demonstrating concern for citizen's needs and keeping the disaster rescue teams from doing their work.

Polling has gone up and down a bit over the last weeks, and will probably continue to do so, especially over the summer holiday season. From late June on, when schools close across most of Northern Germany, the CDU may look close to gaining absolute majority, as core SPD supporters (families with school-aged children) from their regional strongholds get unavailable to pollsters. VW's annual summer closure commences on July 7.
Holidays in Eastern Germany start a bit later, the holiday peak there (and Linke low in the polls) should be early August.

College holidays commence on July 15, which should send Greens & Pirates down in polls (to the extent they are polled at all - mobile-phone only..). Typically, students do first some jobbing (July/ August), and go travelling in September, so that is when the Grüne votes get finally underestimated. 

The trend will reverse in August, when Northern Germany gradually returns to work, but school holidays start in the South. However, NRW holidays are late this year - July 22 to Sept. 3 - so the effect will be less pronounced than during previous election campaigns. From late August on, polls will gradually become more and more meaningful ...

In order to understand what I mean, here a review of FORSA polling (the best performing pollster for the 2009 election) over the summer of 2009. For each party, I give their polling as per June 3rd, July 1st, July 29th, August 19th, Sept. 9th and the Sept. 27 actual result:

CDU:       35 - 36 - 38 - 37 - 35 - 33.8
SPD:       24 - 21  - 23 - 22 - 21 -  23.0
FDP:       15 - 15 - 14 -  13 - 13 -  14.6 
Greens:   11 - 11 - 12 - 12 - 10 - 10.7
Linke:     10 - 11 - 9  - 11 - 14  - 11.6

[Tender Branson]

Latest Emnid poll (for the federal elections):

41% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
13% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  3% Pirates
  2% AfD
  3% Others

The CDU/CSU-FDP coalition is in a tie with SPD-Greens-Left (46% vs. 46%).

Left and FDP seem to have recovered a bit lately.

...

New Bayern state elections poll by FGW:

46% CSU
20% SPD
13% Greens
10% FW
  4% FDP
  7% Others

Absolute 46-43 majority for CSU.

If the FDP gets above 5%, the current CSU-FDP government would have a more comfortable majority.

[Zanas]

AfD doesn't seem to be getting much momentum federally after all...

[Franknburger]

AfD doesn't seem to be getting much momentum federally after all...

They lack the right personnel. So far, it is mostly CDU backbenchers, like, e.g., their speaker in Schleswig-Holstein (see photo below), a 29 year old management consultant.

Not really appealing to protest voters, who have other options as well now the Linke has also gone Eurosceptic. Within the conservative camp, there are also the "Freie Wähler", which may suck up some of the Eurosceptic vote potential, especially in Bavaria.

Last but not least, recent polls indicate a more positive view on the EU. In the June edition of the ZDF Politbarometer, 25% said EU membership is bringing more disadvantages than advantages to Germany - one year ago it was 31%. Moreover, 27% are now saying they will probably or definitely not vote, compared to 19% in January.

[Tender Branson]

With the deadline now over, the following 58 parties have submitted their intention to run in the federal election:

1. FWD     Freie Wähler Deutschland
2. MDU     Muslimisch Demokratische Union
3. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Bündnis 2013 – Die Reformer
4. Die PlanetBlauen     WasserPartei Deutschland-WPD
5. DR     Deutsches Reich
6. DIE VIOLETTEN     Die Violetten
7. BP     Bayernpartei
8. Deutsche Konservative     DEUTSCHE KONSERVATIVE PARTEI
9. CM     CHRISTLICHE MITTE – Für ein Deutschland nach GOTTES Geboten
10. Volksabstimmung     Ab jetzt…Demokratie durch Volksabstimmung
11. Tierschutzpartei     PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ
12. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Eurowählergemeinschaft
13. FAMILIE     Familien-Partei Deutschlands
14. FREIE WÄHLER     FREIE WÄHLER
15. RENTNER     RENTNER Partei Deutschland
16. REP     DIE REPUBLIKANER
17. Bündnis 21/RRP     Bündnis 21/RRP
18. pro Deutschland     Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland
19. KPD     Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands
20. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Erste Partei des Volkes
21. FRÜHLING     Frühling-in-Deutschland e. V.
22. PdB     Partei der Bedrängten
23. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE RECHTE
24. NEIN!     NEIN!-Idee
25. DGP     Die GERADE Partei
26. Die PARTEI     Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative
27. ÖDP     Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei
28. DUW     Demokratische Unabhängige Wählervereinigung
29. BGD     Bund für Gesamtdeutschland
30. BüSo     Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität
31. DND     Die Neue Demokratie
32. Aufbruch C     Aufbruch C
33. DNV     Deutsche Nationalversammlung
34. SU     SustainableUnion
35. PBC     Partei Bibeltreuer Christen
36. AfD     Alternative für Deutschland
37. U.d.M.     Union der Menschlichkeit
38. BIG     Bündnis für Innovation & Gerechtigkeit
39. GMD     Partei Gesunder Menschenverstand Deutschland
40. IDPD     Immigranten-Deutsche-Partei Deutschlands
41. DKP     Deutsche Kommunistische Partei
42. MLPD     Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands
43. PSG     Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale
44. PIRATEN     Piratenpartei Deutschland
45. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Jahw Partei
46. B     Bergpartei, die "ÜberPartei"
47. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE ALTERNATIVEN
48. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     Partei der Nichtwähler
49. PARTEI DER VERNUNFT     Partei der Vernunft
50. IDU     Islamische Demokratische Union
51. DA     DIE AKTIVEN
52. APPD     Anarchistische Pogo-Partei Deutschlands
53. DIE FRAUEN     Feministische Partei DIE FRAUEN
54. GRAUE PANTHER     GRAUE PANTHER Deutschland
55. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE.NÄCHSTEN
56. Alternative Partei     Alternative Partei
57. NM     NEUE MITTE
58. DGP     Deutsche Gerechtigkeits Partei 

http://www.bundeswahlleiter.de/de/bundestagswahlen/BTW_BUND_13/presse/w13004_Zahl_der_Beteiligungsanzeigen.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

I'll try and translate the most hilarious party names into English.



"4. Die PlanetBlauen     WasserPartei Deutschland-WPD"

The Planet-Blue - WaterParty of Germany


"5. DR     Deutsches Reich"

German Reich/Empire


"9. CM     CHRISTLICHE MITTE – Für ein Deutschland nach GOTTES Geboten"

Christian Center - For a Germany according to GOD's commendments


"22. PdB     Partei der Bedrängten"

Party of the Embattled/Hard-Pressed


"24. NEIN!     NEIN!-Idee"

NO! Idea


25. DGP     Die GERADE Partei

The STRAIGHT Party (or The CURRENT Party)


"39. GMD     Partei Gesunder Menschenverstand Deutschland"

Common Sense Party Germany


"55. (keine Kurzbezeichnung)     DIE.NÄCHSTEN"

The Next Ones

[minionofmidas]

I have signed the petition of one of these groups that I will most certainly not actually vote for.

[Tender Branson]

How many signatures are needed in Germany to be on the ballot federally and in the states ?

[minionofmidas]

How many signatures are needed in Germany to be on the ballot federally and in the states ?

200 (from the district) for a direct candidate, 2000 or in the small states 0.1% of the total electorate for every state list. At least you can sign as many petitions as you want to. Parties represented federally or at the state level (actually it's a little more complex: you need to have won five seats, as a result of the actual election result, federally or in at least one state at the last election) are excempt from the requirement to 'announce their attention' to stand and to submit signatures according to wikipedia, so I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong. Also, parties 'representing a national minority' (however representing is defined here) don't need signatures.

And I just read I can't legally sign anybody else's petitions now - only one state list and one direct candidate per voter (but they don't need to be of the same party). Mind you, it's unlikely I would have gotten the chance.

[DC Al Fine]

How many signatures are needed in Germany to be on the ballot federally and in the states ?

200 (from the district) for a direct candidate, 2000 or in the small states 0.1% of the total electorate for every state list. At least you can sign as many petitions as you want to. Parties represented federally or at the state level (actually it's a little more complex: you need to have won five seats, as a result of the actual election result, federally or in at least one state at the last election) are excempt from the requirement to 'announce their attention' to stand and to submit signatures according to wikipedia, so I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong. Also, parties 'representing a national minority' (however representing is defined here) don't need signatures.

And I just read I can't legally sign anybody else's petitions now - only one state list and one direct candidate per voter (but they don't need to be of the same party). Mind you, it's unlikely I would have gotten the chance.

Are there any minority parties besides that Danish one?

[minionofmidas]

And that one doesn't actually run federally either.

But yes, there is (or recently was) one.

[minionofmidas]

I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong.

Having researched the matter... it seems like they didn't have to declare intent but did anyways (possibly not knowing they didn't have to. FW and NPD didn't make this (entirely harmless) mistake.