2013 Elections in Germany
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #750 on: June 19, 2013, 12:59:27 AM »

I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong.
Having researched the matter... it seems like they didn't have to declare intent but did anyways (possibly not knowing they didn't have to. FW and NPD didn't make this (entirely harmless) mistake.

FW are on that list twice though, with 2 different names. Or are these other "Freie Wähler" parties ?
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #751 on: June 19, 2013, 05:37:54 AM »

Latest Forsa:

40% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
15% Greens
  8% Left
  6% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  5% Others

46-45 majority for CDU/CSU-FDP over SPD-Greens-Left.

Latest GMS:

41% CDU/CSU
25% SPD
14% Greens
  8% Left
  5% FDP
  2% Pirates
  2% AfD
  2% FW
  1% Others

CDU/CSU-FDP has 46% vs. 47% for SPD-Greens-Left.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #752 on: June 19, 2013, 10:18:36 AM »

I'm not sure why the Pirates are on your list. Most likely wikipedia is wrong.
Having researched the matter... it seems like they didn't have to declare intent but did anyways (possibly not knowing they didn't have to. FW and NPD didn't make this (entirely harmless) mistake.

FW are on that list twice though, with 2 different names. Or are these other "Freie Wähler" parties ?
The one on the top is a different one*. The other is the real one, but I overlooked it. Smiley

*The FW expelled its entire (tiny) Brandenburg state party, and later its entire (tiny) Bremen state party, because they were dominated by nazis and quasi-nazis, and set up new ones. FWD is the expelled Brandenburg state party, gone nominally national (actually it is active only in Brandenburg, Berlin and Bremen.)
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Franknburger
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« Reply #753 on: June 21, 2013, 12:46:25 PM »

Time for an update on the latest round of polling, before the summer holidays start and polls get erratic.

The figures are reported in the following sequence:

Emnid, June 16
GMS, June 18
Forsa, June 19
INSA / YouGov, June 19
Allensbach, June 19
Infratest / dimap, June 21
Average


CDU:      41/41/40/40/38/41   40.2
SPD:      25/25/22/25/26/25    24.7
Grüne:   13/14/15/15/14/14    14.2
Linke:     8/  8/ 8/  7/  7/  7     7.5
FDP:       5/  5/ 6/  4/  6/  5     5.2
AfD:       2/  2/ 2/  3/  3/ --      2.4
Piraten:  3/  2/ 2/ 3/   2/ --      2.4

Poll-of-polls stands at 45.4 black-yellow vs. 46.4 red-red-green, Only one pollster (FORSA) sees the governing coalition in front (2 ties, 3 opposition leads).
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #754 on: July 01, 2013, 09:59:46 AM »

The average from the last polls:

41-43% CDU/CSU
22-26% SPD
13-15% Greens
    6-8% Left
    4-5% FDP
    0-3% Pirates
    0-3% AfD
    4-6% Others
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #755 on: July 04, 2013, 08:23:06 AM »

New Hessen state elections poll by FGW:

38% CDU (+1)
30% SPD (+6)
15% Greens (+1)
  5% FDP (-11)
  4% Left (-1)
  3% AfD (+3)
  5% Others

Slight majority for SPD-Greens (45%) over CDU-FDP (43%).
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palandio
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« Reply #756 on: July 09, 2013, 03:53:56 AM »

29 parties have been registered for the Hessian state elections, though most still need to collect signatures. The most hilarious name in my opinion:

LUPe (Lärmfolter-Umwelt-Politik-ehrlich)

which would be something like

LOUPe (Noise torture-Environment-Politics-honest)

By the way the NPD probably has failed to reach the required amount of signatures for the Bavarian state elections in Upper Bavaria und Lower Franconia which together make up over 40% of Bavavia.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #757 on: July 10, 2013, 03:29:16 AM »

The following 38 parties have been approved by the federal election commission to take part in the federal election:

Parties already in the Bundestag

1. Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands (CDU),
2. Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands (SPD),
3. Freie Demokratische Partei (FDP),
4. DIE LINKE (DIE LINKE),
5. BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN (GRÜNE),
6. Christlich-Soziale Union in Bayern e.V. (CSU).

Parties already in the state parliaments

7. FREIE WÄHLER (FREIE WÄHLER),
8. Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands (NPD),
9. Piratenpartei Deutschland (PIRATEN).

Parties that were approved

1. Die Violetten (DIE VIOLETTEN)
2. Bayernpartei (BP)
3. CHRISTLICHE MITTE – Für ein Deutschland nach GOTTES Geboten (CM)
4. Ab jetzt…Demokratie durch Volksabstimmung (Volksabstimmung)
5. PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ (Tierschutzpartei)
6. Familien-Partei Deutschlands (FAMILIE)
7. RENTNER Partei Deutschland (RENTNER)
8. DIE REPUBLIKANER (REP)
9. Bündnis 21/RRP (Bündnis 21/RRP)
10. Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland (pro Deutschland)
11. Kommunistische Partei Deutschlands (KPD)
12. DIE RECHTE (keine Kurzbezeichnung)
13. NEIN!-Idee (NEIN!)
14. Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Die PARTEI)
15. Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP)
16. Bund für Gesamtdeutschland (BGD)
17. Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo)
18. Partei Bibeltreuer Christen (PBC)
19. Alternative für Deutschland (AfD)
20. Bündnis für Innovation & Gerechtigkeit (BIG)
21. Partei Gesunder Menschenverstand Deutschland (GMD)
22. Deutsche Kommunistische Partei (DKP)
23. Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands (MLPD)
24. Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale (PSG)
25. Bergpartei, die „ÜberPartei“ (B)
26. Partei der Nichtwähler (keine Kurzbezeichnung)
27. Partei der Vernunft (PARTEI DER VERNUNFT)
28. Feministische Partei DIE FRAUEN (DIE FRAUEN)
29. NEUE MITTE (NM)

...

The 29 approved parties not represented in either the Bundestag or state parliaments have to collect enough signatures in the electoral districts now (at least 200) until July 15 and enough signatures for the state ballot (until July 26), for which a signature amount of 1/1000 of the eligible state voters in the previous federal election is needed, but no more than 2000.

Even though I don't really understand what is meant here:

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If for example Bavaria had 9 Mio. eligible voters in 2009 and 1/1000 signatures are needed, this would be 9000, but it also says "no more than 2000" are required.

Does anyone know what this means ?

Huh
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Franknburger
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« Reply #758 on: July 10, 2013, 08:24:16 AM »

It is the lower of the two numbers. So, in Bavaria, it would be 2,000 signatures. In a smaller state, e.g. Bremen, which should have no more than 400,000 eligible voters, it is 400 signatures.
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #759 on: July 10, 2013, 08:45:36 AM »

It is the lower of the two numbers. So, in Bavaria, it would be 2,000 signatures. In a smaller state, e.g. Bremen, which should have no more than 400,000 eligible voters, it is 400 signatures.

Thx. That makes sense ... Wink
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Franknburger
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« Reply #760 on: July 10, 2013, 10:19:32 AM »

For those interested, here a run-down on some of the smaller parties (not that they have much of a chance to pass the 5% threshold). When giving the ranks in the 2009 federal and EP elections, I count CDU and CSU as one party:

5. PARTEI MENSCH UMWELT TIERSCHUTZ (Tierschutzpartei)
Party HUMAN-ENVURONMENT-ANIMAL PROTECTON - Acronym MUT (=courage). The largest of the "also ran"-field. Came in 8th in the 2009 federal election (0.5% of votes), and  in the 2009 EP election (1.1% of votes). Roughly a quarter of their party programme is on animal protection. Otherwise, they are somewhere in-between SPD and Greens.

8. DIE REPUBLIKANER (REP)
Founded in 1982 as a right-wing CSU split-up. National-conservative, anti-EU and anti-immigration. While not openly Neo-Nazi, they occasionally serve as alternative for Neo-Nazis if NPD or DVU are not on the ballot. Had their best times in the early 1990s (10.9% in the Baden-Wurttemberg state election 1992, 7.5% in Berlin 1989, 4.9% in Bavaria 1990), but are in steady decline since then (among others, because their voters are gradually passing away). Came in 9th in the 2009 federal election (0.4%) and seventh in the 2009 EP election (1.3 %, NPD not on the ballot).

6. Familien-Partei Deutschlands (FAMILIE)
Family-Party: Focus on strengthening parental rights & finances (child allowances, pension awards for time spent in childcare, public early childhood care, simplifying adoptions, etc.) for all parents, irrespectively of sexual orientation and legal status (married / partnership / single). Otherwise centrist. Came in 11th in the 2009 federal election (0.3%) and 9th in the 2009 EP election (1.0 %).

15. Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei (ÖDP)
Ecologic-Democratic Party: Split from the Greens in 1982, and tends to be more euro-sceptic and socially conservative than the latter. Relevant in Bavaria (more than 300 seats in local assemblies, around 2% in state elections). Came in 10th in the 2009 federal election (0.4%) and 12th in the 2009 EP election (0.5%)

7. RENTNER Partei Deutschland (RENTNER)
Pensioners Party. 13th in the 2009 Federal election (0.1%), 11th in the 2009 EP election (0.8%).

9. Bündnis 21/RRP (Bündnis 21/RRP)
Originally Rentner & Renterinnen-Partei (RRP) - Party of Pensioners (m) and Pensioners (f). For reasons beyond my scope of understanding and interest, a planned merger with the Rentner-Partei in 2012 did not work out, so both parties continue to run separately. RRP came in 12th in the 2009 federal election (0.2%) and 14th in the 2009 EP election (0.4 %)   

14. Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative (Die PARTEI)
Party for Labour, Rule of Law, Animal Protection, Promotion of Elites and Grass-roots Initiative (Acronym PARTEI=party). Joke party created by TITANIC satirical magazine. Central programme points include re-erection of the Berlin Wall, a quota for lazy people,  and "Learning from Greece". It was not admitted to the 2009 federal election, but has participated in several state  elections afterwards (Berlin 0.9%, Hamburg 0.7%, Saarland 0.5%,  Mecklenburg-Pomerania 0.2%).  This spring, they gained their first seat in the Lübeck city council (1.3 %). Should pick up quite some of the young educated urban vote, at the expense of Pirates, Linke, possibly also Greens.

Other parties that have already participated in the 2009 federal and/or EP elections:

2. Bayernpartei (BP) [0.1% / --]
1. Die Violetten (DIE VIOLETTEN - spiritual) [0,1 % / 0.2%]
4. Ab jetzt…Demokratie durch Volksabstimmung (Volksabstimmung - Direct Democracy) [0.1/0.3]
17. Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität (BüSo) [0.1/0.0]
18. Partei Bibeltreuer Christen (PBC - Bible-true Christians) [0.1/0.3]
22. Deutsche Kommunistische Partei (DKP) [0.0/0.1]
23. Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands (MLPD) [0.1/--]
24. Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale (PSG) [0.0/0.0]
28. Feministische Partei DIE FRAUEN (DIE FRAUEN - feminist) [--/0.3]
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #761 on: July 12, 2013, 09:37:47 AM »

A load of new polls came out in the past few days.

Here's the average of the 5 federal polls (INSA, Allensbach, Emnid, Forsa, FGW, Infratest dimap):

40.7% CDU/CSU
25.3% SPD
13.4% Greens
  7.2% Left
  4.9% FDP
  2.4% AfD
  1.5% Pirates
  0.2% FW
  4.5% Others

There are also 2 Bayern state election polls out by GMS and Emnid (averages, but they have virtually identical results anyway):

47.0% CSU
19.0% SPD
11.0% Greens
  9.5% FW
  5.0% FDP
  1.5% Pirates
  1.5% Left
  0.5% AfD
  5.0% Others

Absolute majority for CSU.

...

There's also a Bayern poll from GMS for the federal election:

49% CSU (+6.5 compared with 2009 federal election)
19% SPD (+2)
14% Greens (+3)
  4% FDP (-11)
  3% FW (+3)
  3% Left (-3.5)
  2% Pirates (nc)
  2% AfD (+2)
  4% Others
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Franknburger
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« Reply #762 on: July 12, 2013, 12:31:02 PM »

While not apparent at first sight, the CDU appears to have taken some hits from the Snowden affair fallout. It is holiday season in northern Germany, which should depress SPD and Green polling figures, and boost CDU. In fact, that has also been the case 1-2 weeks ago, in the earlier polls.
However, in the latest poll average, CDU has just gained 0.5% compared to mid/late June, and the SPD, which in principle should be on a temporary decline until their electorate comes back from the beaches, is showing equal gains.
The pattern is becoming more obvious if you look at the raw data published by Forschungsgruppe Wahlen (they are the only ones publishing also their actual polling and not just an 'edited' version) for June 7, June 28 and July 12:

CDU:      45 - 50 -44
SPD:      29 - 25 -26
Green:   12 - 11- 13
FDP:       2 -   3 -  4  (with all their faults, the FDP is still a civil rights party)
Left:       5 -   5 -  6
AfD:       3  -  2-   2
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ZuWo
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« Reply #763 on: July 12, 2013, 02:06:53 PM »

An alternative explanation for the recent polls (maybe I'm too optimistic) could be that the German pollsters have learnt their lesson and factor in all the effects of the holiday season in Northern Germany.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #764 on: July 13, 2013, 05:10:07 AM »

An alternative explanation for the recent polls (maybe I'm too optimistic) could be that the German pollsters have learnt their lesson
Yeah, forget it.
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Franknburger
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« Reply #765 on: July 13, 2013, 09:41:56 AM »

An alternative explanation for the recent polls (maybe I'm too optimistic) could be that the German pollsters have learnt their lesson and factor in all the effects of the holiday season in Northern Germany.

Pollsters are definitely to some extent factoring in holiday season effects into their projections. In spite of a 4% SPD dip in raw polling results from June 7 to June 28, Forschungsgruppe Wahlen projected them unchanged at 26%.
The problem is more general - with a reasonable portion of the electorate out of reach for (landline) pollsters, it becomes difficult to pick up trends.
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Lief 🗽
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« Reply #766 on: July 15, 2013, 07:33:42 PM »

Wait, do southern Germans not go on vacation during the summer?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #767 on: July 16, 2013, 12:02:58 AM »

Wait, do southern Germans not go on vacation during the summer?

Sure, but later.

Summer break for BW students starts July 25 this year and for Bavarian students on July 31.
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #768 on: July 18, 2013, 01:24:57 AM »

A new Bayern state elections poll by Infratest dimap shows once more a CSU absolute majority:



Also, Gov. Seehofer (CSU) has a sky-high approval rating:



by party ("is a good Governor"):



... and beats the SPD-frontrunner and Munich mayor by a huge margin:



The CSU-dominance is especially seen in this chart ("confidence in the direction Bayern is going"):



and the fact that the CSU dominates by HUGE margins when it comes to economic competence (finance and budget):



and to protect the Bavarian economy:



and to provide good education policies:



http://www.br.de/fernsehen/bayerisches-fernsehen/sendungen/kontrovers/bayerntrend-kontrovers-wahl-2013-100.html
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Tender Branson
Mark Warner 08
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« Reply #769 on: July 18, 2013, 01:32:40 AM »

There's also a new Hessen poll for the state elections and the federal elections:

In the state elections, CDU/FDP and SPD-Greens are neck-and-neck.



Left poll = state poll
Right poll = federal poll

http://www.fnp.de/rhein-main/rhein-mainhessen/So-wollen-die-Hessen-waehlen-CDU-FDP-und-SPD-Gruene-gleichauf;art801,579743
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #770 on: July 18, 2013, 10:14:59 AM »

What's with the huge other?
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #771 on: July 18, 2013, 10:44:14 AM »


Pirates, Republicans, Nazis, FW most likely.

And in the case of Bayern, the BP and the ÖDP too.
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minionofmidas
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« Reply #772 on: July 22, 2013, 06:31:43 AM »

Parties contesting Hesse state elections, in ballot order:

    Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU –
    Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD –
    Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP –
    BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN – GRÜNE –
    DIE LINKE – DIE LINKE –
    FREIE WÄHLER e.V. – FREIE WÄHLER –
    Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD –
    DIE REPUBLIKANER – REP –
    Piratenpartei Deutschland – PIRATEN –
    Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität – BüSo –
    Aktive Demokratie direkt – ADd –
    Allianz Graue Panther – AGP –
    Alternative für Deutschland – AfD –
    Autofahrer- und Volksinteressenpartei – AVIP –
    Lärmfolter-Umwelt-Politik-ehrlich – LUPe –
    Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP –
    Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative – Die PARTEI –
    Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale – PSG –

(The Landeswahlleiter press release states that these parties have handed in lists, and that the official decision on granting them ballot access is on the 26th. It also says or seems to say that all of them have fulfilled the formal requirements and that this is the order they will appear on the ballot, which would mean the missing decision is purely a formality.)
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Zanas
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« Reply #773 on: July 22, 2013, 09:53:49 AM »

To a Parisian trotskyist, the fact that the Hessian section of the Fourth International is called the PSG is quite amusing... Cheesy
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Tender Branson
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« Reply #774 on: July 24, 2013, 04:03:23 AM »

According to the new FORSA poll, CDU/CSU-FDP will be re-elected:

41% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
12% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  7% Others

46% CDU/CSU-FDP vs. 43% SPD-Greens-Left.

Pirates seem to be gaining at the expense of the Greens.
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