2013 Elections in Germany

[FredLindq]

It would be a nightmare if the Pirates get wind in their sails and manages to enter ther Bundestag.

[Franknburger]

According to the new FORSA poll, CDU/CSU-FDP will be re-elected:

41% CDU/CSU
22% SPD
12% Greens
  9% Left
  5% FDP
  4% Pirates
  7% Others

46% CDU/CSU-FDP vs. 43% SPD-Greens-Left.

Pirates seem to be gaining at the expense of the Greens.

FORSA is one out of the five polls that have been published over the last week, and it has by far the worst results for SPD & Greens. Here is the latest "Poll of polls", including GMS (July 16), infratest dimap (July 19), Emnid (July 21), TNS (July 23) and today's FORSA:

CDU        40.2
SPD        24.8
Greens    13.2
Linke        7.6
FDP          5.0
AfD          2.5 (not shown separately by FORSA)
Pirates     2.8 (not shown separately by infratest dimap)

45.2 CDU/CSU/FDP vs. 45.6 SPD/Greens/Linke.

I would caution anybody to drawing already conclusions. We are still in the middle of the summer holiday season. While northerners are gradually returning home, school holidays in North-Rhine Westfalia and most Eastern states, and annual summer closure of the main car plants have just commenced. As such, the CDU is still likely to be overestimated (the turnaround shall come in around 2 weeks), and Linke figures may for the coming weeks be rather unreliable.

Having said that, I am also sceptical on the Greens and in fact myself considering to vote for the Pirates. So far, the Greens have positioned themselves as a kind of animal-protection-minded SPD, focusing on raising minimum wages, and tax increases  to fund infrastructure investment (pretty stupid, since most of the infrastructure investments over the last years have been useless money-burners á la Stuttgart 21 and Berlin-Brandenburg airport). Their election posters are crappy and missing out their core competencies. Nothing on overdue, sensible reform of energy markets (while the current government has aggravated the mess, quite some of it is due to flaws in the original legislation that was enacted when current Green party leader Trittin was Minister of Environment). Hardly forward-looking, fresh ideas so far. And the Pirates are still the only party that dares to call for legalising marijuana (which could earn the government quite some tax revenue, while at the same time reducing law enforcement costs).
As such, as long as either CDU/FDP or CDU/SPD remain to be the most likely election outcomes, I might well decide to send the Greens a clear message to stop moving backwards. However, let's first await the debates..

[ERvND]

Having said that, I am also sceptical on the Greens and in fact myself considering to vote for the Pirates.

In other words, you are considering to vote for CDU/FDP.

[Zanas]

No, he's voting for My Little Pony in the Bundestag ! Way to go, Franknburger !

[palandio]

... and tax increases  to fund infrastructure investment (pretty stupid, since most of the infrastructure investments over the last years have been useless money-burners á la Stuttgart 21 and Berlin-Brandenburg airport).

So you would rather let the country break down in ruins. The rain dropping through the roof into the classrooms. Children not learning to swim because public swimming pools are closed. Trucks transporting large amounts of chemicals which would be suitable for railway transport, but railways are "overcrowded". Rents rising into the sky in the cities because there are (almost) no public housing projects anymore.

Germany actually is running up a huge deficit every year when you account for amortization of public infrastructure. That is, we are living from the substance. Speaking only about money-burners (which S21 and BBI most probably are) gives only a small part of the picture.

[minionofmidas]

The only options in this election are Black-Yellow and Black-Red, neither of which has the potential of being anything but disastrous for Germany and Europe anyways.

I hear there's a lot of talk within the CDU (activists, third rate politicos, that sort of thing) of preventing another Lower-Saxony-like stampede to the FDP, with the big argument that the CDU's weaker areas in the big states are going to be shut out of parliamentary representation entirely (their CDU branches, that is) otherwise. If true and effective, that could be disastrous to the FDP.

[minionofmidas]

Parties contesting Hesse state elections, in ballot order:

    Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands – CDU –
    Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands – SPD –
    Freie Demokratische Partei – FDP –
    BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN – GRÜNE –
    DIE LINKE – DIE LINKE –
    FREIE WÄHLER e.V. – FREIE WÄHLER –
    Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschlands – NPD –
    DIE REPUBLIKANER – REP –
    Piratenpartei Deutschland – PIRATEN –
    Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität – BüSo –
    Aktive Demokratie direkt – ADd –
    Allianz Graue Panther – AGP –
    Alternative für Deutschland – AfD –
    Autofahrer- und Volksinteressenpartei – AVIP –
    Lärmfolter-Umwelt-Politik-ehrlich – LUPe –
    Ökologisch-Demokratische Partei – ÖDP –
    Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative – Die PARTEI –
    Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale – PSG –

(The Landeswahlleiter press release states that these parties have handed in lists, and that the official decision on granting them ballot access is on the 26th. It also says or seems to say that all of them have fulfilled the formal requirements and that this is the order they will appear on the ballot, which would mean the missing decision is purely a formality.)

Yep. Official now.

Meanwhile, running in Hesse for the Bundestag:

1    Christlich Demokratische Union Deutschlands    CDU 
2    Sozialdemokratische Partei Deutschlands    SPD    
3    Freie Demokratische Partei    FDP     
4    BÜNDNIS 90/DIE GRÜNEN    GRÜNE    
5    DIE LINKE    DIE LINKE     
6    Piraten Partei Deutschland    PIRATEN    
7    Nationaldemokratische Partei Deutschland    NPD
8    DIE REPUBLIKANER    REP    
9    Bürgerrechtsbewegung Solidarität    BüSo
10    Marxistisch-Leninistische Partei Deutschlands    MLPD
11    Alternative für Deutschland    AfD
12    Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland    pro Deutschland    
13    FREIE WÄHLER Hessen e.V.    FREIE WÄHLER
14    Partei für Arbeit, Rechtsstaat, Tierschutz, Elitenförderung und basisdemokratische Initiative    Die PARTEI    
15    Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale    PSG    

 

[Franknburger]

... and tax increases  to fund infrastructure investment (pretty stupid, since most of the infrastructure investments over the last years have been useless money-burners á la Stuttgart 21 and Berlin-Brandenburg airport).

So you would rather let the country break down in ruins. The rain dropping through the roof into the classrooms. Children not learning to swim because public swimming pools are closed. Trucks transporting large amounts of chemicals which would be suitable for railway transport, but railways are "overcrowded". Rents rising into the sky in the cities because there are (almost) no public housing projects anymore.

Germany actually is running up a huge deficit every year when you account for amortization of public infrastructure. That is, we are living from the substance. Speaking only about money-burners (which S21 and BBI most probably are) gives only a small part of the picture.

Your points are legitimate, and you deserve an answer. The short answer is "No", but the longer one gets much more complicated.
Before I start with the long answer, may I suggest that you look at this series of articles, which I came across via links posted in one of the Detroit bankruptcy threads (thanks TrainInTheDistance).

But allow me to already make one point: We had a similar (and at that time legitimate) debate around 2005, which lead to the Grand Coalition increasing VAT by three points from 16% to 19%. If that massive increase, combined with current record-low unemployment and social security expenditure, was not enough, I would first like to see a detailed analysis of what went wrong before emerging on the next tax increase. I would also like to have some safeguards installed to ensure the now proposed tax increase round will not go equally wrong, but achieve the postulated objective of strengthening community finances for provision of essential services (note that the stress here is on "essential services", which, in my opinion, do not include airports or philharmonies).

Oh, and the 'lack of freight railroad capacity" is directly linked to Stuttgart 21, because the project that was not financed, as funds were already earmarked for Stuttgart 21, was a new double-rail freight-only line along the Upper Rhine, to take some of the Rotterdam-Bale (- Northern Italy) traffic off the roads. And quite some of that traffic is - yes - chemicals (Sandoz, BASF, etc.).

[Tender Branson]

LOL @ this JU (Young Union, the youth organisation of the CDU/CSU) election poster:



"Stay cool and vote for the Chancellor(in)"

[Zanas]

You should translate it "Keep calm and vote for the Chancellor", otherwise you don't get the meme right.

[Leftbehind]

Only a youth section of a Conservative party would highlight that god awful stage-managed stance as a plus, as if it sets her apart from the legion of party drones who've learnt to do the exact same thing.

[Tender Branson]

German SPD’s Platzeck to Resign as Brandenburg State Premier

German Social Democrat Matthias Platzeck, premier of the eastern state of Brandenburg, will step down for health reasons, dealing a possible blow to the party as it seeks to unseat Chancellor Angela Merkel.



Platzeck, who has served as the state’s prime minister since 2002 and held the SPD’s national chairmanship briefly following the 2005 election, was scheduled to return to work today after suffering a minor stroke last month. The popular 59-year-old state leader will be replaced by Brandenburg’s interior minister, Dietmar Woidke, Die Welt newspaper reported.

“This is a great loss for German politics,” the SPD federal parliamentary whip, Thomas Oppermann, said in a message on Twitter in which he confirmed the resignation. A spokeswoman in Platzeck’s office in the state capital, Potsdam, declined to comment when contacted by phone.

Platzeck’s departure leaves the SPD without one of its most experienced leaders in eastern Germany ahead of the Sept. 22 national election as it trails Merkel’s Christian Democratic bloc by about 15 points in most polls. The premier has been politically active in the east since before the 1989 opening of the Berlin Wall.

http://www.businessweek.com/news/2013-07-29/german-spd-s-platzeck-to-resign-as-brandenburg-state-premier

[Franknburger]

Here is the latest "Poll of polls", including GMS (July 16), infratest dimap (July 19), Emnid (July 21), TNS (July 23) and today's FORSA:

CDU        40.2
SPD        24.8
Greens    13.2
Linke        7.6
FDP          5.0
AfD          2.5 (not shown separately by FORSA)
Pirates     2.8 (not shown separately by infratest dimap)

45.2 CDU/CSU/FDP vs. 45.6 SPD/Greens/Linke.

Time for the weekly poll update. 5 new polls (EMNID 28.7., FORSA 31.7., TNS 31.7., infratest 1.8., FG Wahlen 2.8.). Poll of Polls:

CDU        40.4
SPD        25.2
Greens    13.6
Linke        7.4
FDP          4.8
AfD*         2.4
Pirates*    2.4

* Apparently, pollsters stop showing results at or below 2%. In polls without separate results for Pirates or AfD (three in each case), I have put them at 2%.

Pretty stable, but also presumably pretty much edited results. FG Wahlen raw data is fluctuating heavily, e.g. CDU 43% in May, 50% in June, now at 41%, SPD 31/25/31.

Summer holidays have reached their peak. They are finishing now in the north, while Bayern and Baden-Würtemberg have just started. Over the next weeks, raw poll data should favour SPD and Greens, and underestimate CDU and Linke.

[palandio]

... and tax increases  to fund infrastructure investment (pretty stupid, since most of the infrastructure investments over the last years have been useless money-burners á la Stuttgart 21 and Berlin-Brandenburg airport).

So you would rather let the country break down in ruins. The rain dropping through the roof into the classrooms. Children not learning to swim because public swimming pools are closed. Trucks transporting large amounts of chemicals which would be suitable for railway transport, but railways are "overcrowded". Rents rising into the sky in the cities because there are (almost) no public housing projects anymore.

Germany actually is running up a huge deficit every year when you account for amortization of public infrastructure. That is, we are living from the substance. Speaking only about money-burners (which S21 and BBI most probably are) gives only a small part of the picture.

Your points are legitimate, and you deserve an answer. The short answer is "No", but the longer one gets much more complicated.
Before I start with the long answer, may I suggest that you look at this series of articles, which I came across via links posted in one of the Detroit bankruptcy threads (thanks TrainInTheDistance).

But allow me to already make one point: We had a similar (and at that time legitimate) debate around 2005, which lead to the Grand Coalition increasing VAT by three points from 16% to 19%. If that massive increase, combined with current record-low unemployment and social security expenditure, was not enough, I would first like to see a detailed analysis of what went wrong before emerging on the next tax increase. I would also like to have some safeguards installed to ensure the now proposed tax increase round will not go equally wrong, but achieve the postulated objective of strengthening community finances for provision of essential services (note that the stress here is on "essential services", which, in my opinion, do not include airports or philharmonies).

Oh, and the 'lack of freight railroad capacity" is directly linked to Stuttgart 21, because the project that was not financed, as funds were already earmarked for Stuttgart 21, was a new double-rail freight-only line along the Upper Rhine, to take some of the Rotterdam-Bale (- Northern Italy) traffic off the roads. And quite some of that traffic is - yes - chemicals (Sandoz, BASF, etc.).

Thank you for your kind answer to my polemic statement.
In my opinion you are right when it comes to long-term sustainability of infrastructure investments and planning. Our focus should be on providing essential services and maintaining existing (sustainable) infrastructure.
When I mentioned chemicals on trucks I had in mind a case in south-eastern Bavaria where a highway is under construction despite environmental concerns while the railroad will remain single-track for the next years. But your example is maybe even better.
Our opinions on state financing might differ slightly, but then we would get fully off-topic. :-D

Back to topic:
Families in Baden-Württemberg and Bavaria might be only slightly more conservative than the average German voter because the CDU's core voter group is among pensioneers. Pensioneers usually don't follow the school holiday scheme. (I'm afraid I can't provide any numbers.)

[minionofmidas]

Parties contesting Hesse state elections, in ballot order:

(snip)

Yep. Official now.

Meanwhile, running in Hesse for the Bundestag:

(snip)

nationally:
    SPD, FDP, Left, Greens, Pirates, NPD, FW, AfD, MLPD everywhere.
   CDU except Bavaria
    pro Deutschland – Bürgerbewegung pro Deutschland in 13 states: all but Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Thüringen
    REP in 10 states: Berlin, Brandenburg, Hessen, Rheinland-Pfalz, Bayern, Mecklenburg-Vorpommern, Niedersachsen, NRW, Thüringen, Baden-Württemberg
    ÖDP in 8 states: Berlin, Hamburg, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Bayern, Thüringen, Sachsen-Anhalt, Baden-Württemberg
    BüSo in 6 states: Bayern, Baden-Württemberg, Berlin, Hessen, NRW, Sachsen
    DIE PARTEI in 5 states: Berlin, Bremen, Hamburg, Hessen, NRW
    Tierschutzpartei in 5 states: Bayern, Bremen, Niedersachsen, Schleswig-Holstein, Baden-Württemberg
    PARTEI DER VERNUNFT (lol) in 4 states: Bayern, NRW, Rheinland-Pfalz, Baden-Württemberg)
    PSG – Partei für Soziale Gleichheit, Sektion der Vierten Internationale in 3 states: Berlin, Hessen, NRW
    BIG – Bündnis für Innovation & Gerechtigkeit in 3 states: Berlin, NRW, Baden-Württemberg
    Bündnis 21/RRP (who?) in 3 states: Bayern, Bremen, NRW
    Rentner Partei Deutschland in 3 states: Hamburg, Schleswig-Holstein, Baden-Württemberg
    PBC – Partei Bibeltreuer Christen in 2 states: Niedersachsen und Baden-Württemberg. Used to be better organized.
    Volksabstimmung – Ab jetzt in 2 states: NRW und Baden-Württemberg   
In just one state
CSU (guess where)
    DIE VIOLETTEN (Bavaria)
    Familien-Partei Deutschlands (Saarland)
    BP – Bayernpartei (guess where)
    DIE FRAUEN – Feministische Partei Die Frauen (Bavaria)
    Die Rechte (NRW)
    Partei der Nichtwähler (lol, NRW)

[Tender Branson]

Found a nice chart of who is running where (blue = on the ballot, red = party was rejected):



http://www.wahlrecht.de/bundestag/2013/parteien-landeslisten.html

[Middle-aged Europe]

In other news, I just finished two days of furnishing my district with Ströbele placards:

[Tender Branson]

The SPD-poster crews putting up their stuff:



or Hashemite-style:

[Tender Branson]

Interesting fact:

While the ARD and Infratest dimap decided to release their final poll 10 days ahead of the election, the ZDF and Forschungsgruppe Wahlen decided to conduct their final poll in the last week before the election and release it 3 days ahead of it.

ZDF said that the Lower Saxony election led to their decision, in which the FDP gained many "loan votes" from the CDU and therefore the pre-election polls were way off.

ARD on the other hand argues that releasing their final poll 10 days ahead of the election is better because a poll just 3 days ahead of the election could lead to influencing people, especially if the poll shows a big lead for CDU/CSU - so people might stay at home.

http://www.spiegel.de/spiegel/vorab/ard-will-keine-umfrage-direkt-vor-der-bundestagswahl-veroeffentlichen-a-914632.html

[RogueBeaver]

Another Steinbruck gaffe: this time saying Merkel lacked a passion for Europe because she's an Easterner. At this rate we should have a list of demographics he hasn't yet offended. How do you say "WHAT ABOUT YOUR GAAFFES!!!" in German?

[Viewfromthenorth]

Congratulations to him on pissing off all of one of the SPD's two core regions...in a single sentence. Has he managed to annoy anyone in the Ruhr yet?

[RogueBeaver]

Not yet.

[Tender Branson]

Another Steinbruck gaffe: this time saying Merkel lacked a passion for Europe because she's an Easterner. At this rate we should have a list of demographics he hasn't yet offended. How do you say "WHAT ABOUT YOUR GAAFFES!!!" in German?

Don't know what the average standard-German would say to Steinbrück about his gaffes, but ...

... in Vienna, they would say: "Bist wo an'grennt, oida ?" (literally: "have you run into a wall, dude ?", but means: "are you nuts, dude ?")

[Hifly]

"Bist wo an'grennt, oida ?"

That sounds soooo Austrian

[ERvND]

Congratulations to him on pissing off all of one of the SPD's two core regions...in a single sentence. Has he managed to annoy anyone in the Ruhr yet?

The SPD's two core regions? As I see it, there are five regions left where the SPD can hope to be on top of / on par with the CDU/CSU: The Ruhr area, Northern Hesse, Southern Lower Saxony, Eastern Frisia and Brandenburg. Of those, only Brandenburg is located in the East. The rest of the former GDR is either in CDU or Left hands.